European rankings and the EuroTable

As the season gets to the pointy end, the EuroTable http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php a device which assesses performance over the past 30 games given weightings over time, competition and opposition produces a different output than the ERC.

It's a mechanism which would have for instance, avoided pitting Leinster and ASM in the same pool this year - and thus having the second best team in Europe dropping down to the Amlin. See http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest&week=2012-06-11

The actual mechanism of the calculations is largely hidden, but an overview is provided http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?name=Rdesc

Surely this is a better method of allocating teams to pools?

is there anything you don't have a whinge at grey

If everything wasn't so rubbish I wouldn't have to nathan

greytiger wrote:If everything wasn't so rubbish I wouldn't have to nathan

hehe very true.

"Greytiger righting the wrongs one step at a time"

hehe

This is a good idea, but there is absolutely no way a team like Bayonne should be ahead of the Ospreys, farcical.

greytiger wrote:As the season gets to the pointy end, the EuroTable http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php a device which assesses performance over the past 30 games given weightings over time, competition and opposition produces a different output than the ERC.

It's a mechanism which would have for instance, avoided pitting Leinster and ASM in the same pool this year - and thus having the second best team in Europe dropping down to the Amlin. See http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest&week=2012-06-11

The actual mechanism of the calculations is largely hidden, but an overview is provided http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?name=Rdesc

Surely this is a better method of allocating teams to pools?

I thought Leinster failed to qualify because the lost to ASM and also struggled against Exeter both home and away and in their away fixture with Scarlets.

So.

Once again as the season draws to a conclusion and the debris of successes and setbacks of games from a year ago get deleted from the record, the Eurotable begins to once again look realistic and a rational basis for the new Euro seedings.

This combination (albeit requiring modification to cater for rugby requirements - including the non-ex-ERC leagues) remains the best assessor of teams for the seedings process, by merging both European and league results over the season.

As of yesterday the table can be viewed at

you are keeping us in suspense. where can it be viewed at?

Sorry LT (a c&p error) http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest.

And for those that can't access it from behind their firewalls:

Code:

1   Saracens      100.00   1   no change
2   Toulon      96.68   3   up 1
3   Leinster      94.46   2   down 1
4   Bath      89.68   5   up 1
5   Northampton Saints      88.86   6   up 1
6   Munster      86.09   4   down 2
7   Glasgow Warriors      84.46   8   up 1
8   Ulster   Ireland   83.74   7   down 1
9   ASM Clermont Auvergne      80.80   9   no change
10   Racing Metro 92      76.55   11   up 1
11   Leicester Tigers      76.27   12   up 1
12   Harlequins      75.79   10   down 2
13   Sale Sharks      73.73   13   no change
14   Toulouse      71.85   14   no change
15   Montpellier      70.49   15   no change
16   Castres Olympique      69.28   16   no change
17   Stade Francais      64.18   17   no change
18   Begles-Bordeaux      62.36   18   no change
19   Ospreys      61.50   19   no change
20   Brive      61.44   20   no change
21   London Wasps      60.25   21   no change
22   Scarlets      56.56   22   no change
23   Bayonne      56.35   23   no change
24   Oyonnax      56.35   24   no change
25   Exeter Chiefs      56.21   25   no change
26   Cardiff Blues      55.86   26   no change
27   Gloucester      54.47   27   no change
28   Grenoble      52.35   28   no change
29   Edinburgh      49.89   29   no change
30   Perpignan      47.80   30   no change
31   London Irish      46.39   31   no change
32   Biarritz Olympique      45.91   32   no change
33   Connacht      43.11   33   no change
34   Newport Gwent Dragons      35.65   34   no change
35   Zebre      33.31   35   no change
36   Benetton Treviso      33.25   36   no change
37   Worcester Warriors      30.22   37   no change
38   Newcastle Falcons      29.75   38

cannot argue with the Top 3, but Bath in 4th spot seems to suggest that there is too much weighting towards results in the Amlin.

also do not believe that Teams shoudl lose points for losing a knockout match. That Leicester moved ahead of Quins by virtue of not making a semifinal seems perverse.

rankings feel about right to me.

top20 spots have 6 AP sides, 9 French, and 4 Rabo.

I don't really disagree, LT.

I've always proposed a modified version of the UEFA model that the ET mimics.

But in principle, a mix of both league and Euro performance provides to me, a good basis of comparison to overcome the shockingly poor pool group stages and their knock-on effects on the HEC quarter/semi outcomes.

I like to cite Leinster's HEC pool last year when unbelievably they were dispatched to the Amlin as an example of how badly the ERC got it totally wrong.

quinsforever wrote:rankings feel about right to me.

top20 spots have 6 AP sides, 9 French, and 4 Rabo.

Your maths are a bit off there.   

good catch! sorry ospreys fans

6, 9, and 5 respectively.

The seedings would only be finalised at the end of the season.

So the current placings would only be of interest (like a league table) just a snapshot of current performance (only with the dregs of last year taken into account).

Without knowing the methodology being used it's hard to know what to make of those rankings, but as said earlier can't quibble with top 3 but Bath as no 4 is off the wall. Also if this table was used for seedings for the new Euro cup would Bath and Northampton really be the top seeds in two of the groups after failing to qualify out of their pools this year, while Munster a semi-finalists would be down among the second seeds.

Without knowing the methodology being used it's hard to know what to make of those rankings, but as said earlier can't quibble with top 3 but Bath as no 4 is off the wall. Also if this table was used for seedings for the new Euro cup would Bath and Northampton really be the top seeds in two of the groups after failing to qualify out of their pools this year, while Munster a semi-finalists would be down among the second seeds.

brennomac wrote:Without knowing the methodology being used it's hard to know what to make of those rankings, but as said earlier can't quibble with top 3 but Bath as no 4 is off the wall.  Also if this table was used for seedings for the new Euro cup would Bath and Northampton really be the top seeds in two of the groups after failing to qualify out of their pools this year, while Munster a semi-finalists would be down among the second seeds.

You'd only know what the seedings would be at the end of the season, bren.

Plus if you can come up with a better comparator, I'd be interested to hear of it.

Why should the seeding system for the new ERC Cup not be skewed by past European Cup performance?

Some French teams seem to care far more about their League performances than the Cup, yet the proposed system would allow them to gain a high seeding in a competition that they don't care about. For those that do care about the Cup it would further shift the focus away from it to the League, so I suppose the LNR would at least be happy.

Last year's ET final table took into account of all competitions (including the T2 Euro one).

And it still reads right.

Code:

1   Leinster      100.00   1   no change
2   Toulon      93.75   2   no change
3   ASM Clermont Auvergne      92.89   3   no change
4   Castres Olympique      86.52   7   up 3
5   Leicester Tigers      85.03   4   down 1
6   Ulster   Ireland   82.46   5   down 1
7   Saracens      81.82   6   down 1
8   Harlequins      79.55   8   no change
9   Racing Metro 92      76.96   9   no change
10   Montpellier      74.26   10   no change
11   Toulouse      73.38   11   no change
12   Northampton Saints      72.86   12   no change
13   Glasgow Warriors      72.24   13   no change
14   Exeter Chiefs      67.82   14   no change
15   Perpignan      66.52   15   no change
16   Munster      66.47   16   no change
17   Bayonne      66.43   17   no change
18   Ospreys      64.00   18   no change
19   Stade Francais      63.15   19   no change
20   Gloucester      61.68   20   no change
21   Biarritz Olympique      60.72   21   no change
22   Bath      59.15   22   no change
23   Sale Sharks      57.73   23   no change
24   Scarlets      56.43   24   no change
25   Benetton Treviso      54.49   25   no change
26   Grenoble      53.50   26   no change
27   London Irish      53.09   27   no change
28   Begles-Bordeaux      50.33   28   no change
29   London Wasps      48.07   29   no change
30   Connacht      44.37   30   no change
31   Cardiff Blues      38.56   31   no change
32   Newport Gwent Dragons      37.08   32   no change
33   Edinburgh      36.71   33   no change
34   Agen      35.89   34   no change
35   Worcester Warriors      35.27   35   no change
36   Mont-de-Marsan      29.32   36   no change
37   London Welsh      26.37   37   no change
38   Zebre      18.98   38   no change

looks about right.

4 rabo and 3 aviva in top 10.

are bath really better than clermont, munster and ulster ?

i seriously doubt that

If by the end of the season, Bath finish fourth in the ET, it'd mean that they'd have done well in both the Amlin and the Jeff, alive.

One thing about them is that the ET has volatility and can be influenced by the processing algorithm and the emotionally-free, hard nut impartiality of maths.

How do you rate last year's final results?

In European competitions the English clubs dominated. 5 out of 8 semi finalists. That is why bath and saints are so high in the rankings. It's very simple.

Teams can only play those opponents in front of them

LondonTiger wrote:cannot argue with the Top 3, but Bath in 4th spot seems to suggest that there is too much weighting towards results in the Amlin.

also do not believe that Teams shoudl lose points for losing a knockout match. That Leicester moved ahead of Quins by virtue of not making a semifinal seems perverse.

That suggests that the home and away and point exchange coefficients are off. Under an IRB like system, which gives an extra 4 points for home advantage, the differential between Saints and Quins would have been large enough that Quins would not have been docked nearly a full point for losing, as happened here.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:If by the end of the season, Bath finish fourth in the ET, it'd mean that they'd have done well in both the Amlin and the Jeff, alive.

One thing about them is that the ET has volatility and can be influenced by the processing algorithm and the emotionally-free, hard nut impartiality of maths.

How do you rate last year's final results?

isnt it a bit off to promote jeff teams rankings vs rabo teams who dont even participate in the amlin.

seems like maths without the numbers adding up so the algorithm sucks

thats kind of the point. to be able to compare across competitions that most teams arent in. AP, Rabo, top14, HC, Amlin.

the coefficients that determine how much credit you get for beating a team from a particular country is how well that country's clubs perform in the HC.

ulster munster and ulster both losing to glasgow recently will have really hurt their ranking, and conversely, boosted glasgows.

quinsforever wrote:ulster munster and ulster both losing to glasgow recently will have really hurt their ranking, and conversely, boosted glasgows.

Hey, I know we were shoite but mentioning us twice is just rubbing it in ;-)

What the EuroTable is above all else is a really brilliant resource for glancing at to see who in Europe is in really good form.

alive555 wrote:

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:If by the end of the season, Bath finish fourth in the ET, it'd mean that they'd have done well in both the Amlin and the Jeff, alive.

One thing about them is that the ET has volatility and can be influenced by the processing algorithm and the emotionally-free, hard nut impartiality of maths.

How do you rate last year's final results?

isnt it a bit off to promote jeff teams rankings vs rabo teams who dont even participate in the amlin.

seems like maths without the numbers adding up so the algorithm sucks

That would be the very same algorithm which saw Leinster (rightly imo) come top of the ET last season.

Equally I'd like to see an entirely European version of the IRB tables to establish 'top dog' on our continent.
I don't think that that would be England. But it might, just might, increase Georgia's claims to nudge towards their acceptance amongst the 'equals' there at the high table.