Oz rugby...For once I agree with Rattue...well

by Taylorman Fri May 17, 2013 12:11 am

First topic message reminder :

For much of the first four paragraphs...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-sport-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502180&objectid=10883137

The remaining dribble about NZ I don't believe is anywhere near the average Kiwi's thinking.

For one I'm excited about this years AB's, the way way overdue emergence of Auckland as a true rugby force, even though there is still a long way to go.

But back to the title.

Based on this years sxv matches alone, Oz have truly got some momentum going after last years horrors. The Lions have toured one year too late and are going to cop what could be the start of another strong Ozzie spell, a la the early and late 90's. Its no coincidence the World cup in xv is in the NH- the venue of Oz's two wins. Robbie Deans finally has some real toys to play with now there's a few back in the cot and I don't think he's going to waste this opportunity.

In terms of improvement alone, put some long term money on Oz in xv and a quid or two on a 3-0 sweep vs the Lions. thumbsup

I have picked 2-1 all along but am slowly tending towards the sweep.

by **Pal Joey** Sat May 18, 2013 2:33 am

Full Credit wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:2-1 to the Lions, no question. Australia are grossly over rated.
I take it you'll be wagering everything you have on that outcome then since there's "no question"? We get it... you don't like Australians. Point taken.

G&G is half Australian apparently.

Must be a reason for the dislike of 50% of his genetic makeup. Jealousy?

Personally, I'd just grab it and run with it! Run

Go Gold!!! Very Happy

by **Pal Joey** Sat May 18, 2013 2:37 am

Linebreaker wrote:
Full Credit wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:2-1 to the Lions, no question. Australia are grossly over rated.
I take it you'll be wagering everything you have on that outcome then since there's "no question"? We get it... you don't like Australians. Point taken.

G&G is half Australian apparently.

Must be a reason for the dislike of 50% of his genetic makeup. Jealousy? Insolence?

Personally, I'd just grab it and run with it!

Go Gold!!!

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 4:04 pm

Taylorman wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
Biltong wrote:I find it amusing that when a SH supporter thinks the Wallabies will win the series 3-0 it is shunned and laughed off, but when a NH supporter says it, it is called confidence.

It has far less to do with SH/NH confidence arrogance etc, and far more to do with facts.

For all the bigging up of Aus there is no actual evidence that they are improved from last year at all, a spike in Brumbies form and the return of Georg Smith does not compensate for the Cooper/Beale mess, the loss of key players to injury / retirement, or the uneven and unbalanced look to the squad.

For me the lions played SA at their strongest, world champs who were no.1 on the planet, and it was some of the most brutal rugby ever recorded, if this lions squad can reproduce that level of unity, and commitment then they have the stronger squad and better players comfortably.

I'm not saying the Lions will definately win 3-0, but if Gatland gets his house in order, unites the team correctly then I think there is little Aus can do, and their 'nightmare' season is far from over.

Youngster carving up the Super league still need testing on the international stage, older experienced heads aren't performing great, and the squad looks a little desperate, the back row combinations look weak, Higg isn't an effective 8, Hooper and Gill are untested in a tour like this, the centre options are lacking something, and there is no lock to partner Horwill.

Key for Aus will be Cooper, he needs to get back into the squad, be treated like nothing has happened and all past dispensed of, then his partnership with Genia realised to it's fullest, that is a lot of trust to put on that little **** IMHO!

You start off using the word 'facts' then rattle on completely with conjecture.

Facts are things like:

-Last year the Ozzies beat Wales, the 6N champs, 3-0.
-A Lions 3 or anything 0 win over a SH side is a pipe dream- has it ever happened? (unsure of that as a fact mind you- but I can't ever recall one)
-Any NH series win of 3 tests or more against a SH side is rare- VERY rare
-The one off wins versus the SH sides were one offs, and COMPLETELY surprising- I mean hands up which betting agencies had SCotland beating the Ozzies or England beating NZ? The Summer series results were 8.5 to 0.5- in anyones book complete domination regardless of the 'nature' of the tests.

Yet a 3-0 win to the Lions is a real possibility?- what facts on this earth possibly suport that?

Facts??? Aussie beating Wales is a fact but has nothing to do with a lions tour? both teams were injury hit, and Aus nicked 2 of the 3 games, the same Welsh players are heading down in a far superior squad to when they went last year, so facta say they willl be far better.

The highlighted line is my favourite, I was mocked for claiming NZ would lose on tour, granted I went with a Welsh win for fun reasons but I stated NZ would lose a game, I had a tenner on Wales then another tenner on England... I also had Scotland to win on Aus soil, and the only complete shock of last year was Wales actually going down 3 - 0.

But please highlight my conjecture, am I wrong that Beale is in Rehab? Am I wrong to say that Cooper has acted the goat recently? Am I wrong to say that Aus have key injuries? Am I wrong in criticising an unbalanced back row? Am I wrong to state that international debutants are a risk on the lions tour?
These are factas of the game.

I don't understand why it is that if someone doesn't rate a certain SH team or player they are automatically an arrogant northerner, Aus are the weakest of the tri nations teams, they aren't in a good place and have one of the weakest squads available that I have seen from them for a long time, I as a lions supporter is looking for a series win, and hoping for the whitewash that is acheivable!

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat May 18, 2013 4:39 pm

Just because you picked those victories bluesman doesn't mean the majority of people agreed with you. I'm sure there were many who predicted an England win for example but I don't recall much confidence from Scottish supporters and there seemed a great deal who were not confident of victory.

You keep going on about key injuries. It stands at Pocock and JOC. Both are game winners but JOC has not demonstrated much in the way of form and Pocock can be neutralised as well as being a match winner.

You are entitled to your opinion of Wales and Australia. You think it is a SH banding together but believe me Kiwis don't like to promote Australia because we're neighbours. We recognise they're on an upward swing. If Australia are the weakest of the 3N teams how did they come second in the RC last year?

You predict a 3-0 Lions whitewash. All power to you. That's why I made a bet with you as I don't see that happening. Disagreeing with you isn't SH arrogance just as your opinion of a Lions whitewash is not northern arrogance.

Enjoy your trip. I hope you won't be this tense in Oz! Hug

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 5:47 pm

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Just because you picked those victories bluesman doesn't mean the majority of people agreed with you. I'm sure there were many who predicted an England win for example but I don't recall much confidence from Scottish supporters and there seemed a great deal who were not confident of victory.

You keep going on about key injuries. It stands at Pocock and JOC. Both are game winners but JOC has not demonstrated much in the way of form and Pocock can be neutralised as well as being a match winner.

You are entitled to your opinion of Wales and Australia. You think it is a SH banding together but believe me Kiwis don't like to promote Australia because we're neighbours. We recognise they're on an upward swing. If Australia are the weakest of the 3N teams how did they come second in the RC last year?

You predict a 3-0 Lions whitewash. All power to you. That's why I made a bet with you as I don't see that happening. Disagreeing with you isn't SH arrogance just as your opinion of a Lions whitewash is not northern arrogance.

Enjoy your trip. I hope you won't be this tense in Oz!

This is what gets me, what in the way of proof is there of this?

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat May 18, 2013 7:18 pm

There is more of a link between Super form and test form than club form and test form in the NH but I see your point. Let me rephrase your honour. We expect an upswing in form. Hug

by **Biltong** Sat May 18, 2013 8:00 pm

Bluesman, the proof is in the Super XV, australia has few injuries and their depth is looking good.

If you don't believe it, then that is your perogative.

by **Biltong** Sat May 18, 2013 8:04 pm

To add to the "proof" you want, last year thecOzzie Franchises were woeful in their cross conference matches, the Waratahs, Rebels and Force won 1 match between them against the SA and NZ teams, the Reds were the only successful team in winning 7/8 and the Brumbies managed to win 4/8

This year the Aussies collectively have won just a shade under 50%, the Force, Brumbies, Waratahs, Rebels and Reds have all won matches against SA and NZ teams.

In fact currently the Australian teams are leading head to head against NZ.

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 8:25 pm

I agree super form is far more relevant down under, but what exactly is different between this year than last... Brumbies starting stronger, that is it really!

I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

The big losses last year were a fully firing Cooper, JOC, Mitchell, and Genia late in the summer tests. Genia is the only one to return without a question mark, and this year Pocock, JOC, Mitchell, Sharpe and Beale are all missing.

I understand that Aus are due a swing in form and performances, but I don't see where it's coming from with such an unbalanced squad, I'm amazed noone see's where I'm coming from!

by **Biltong** Sat May 18, 2013 8:40 pm

Yes, there are injuries this year, but George Smith, Gill and Hooper makes the loss of Pocock moot..

Then there are other youngsters who have come through such as Davies, Mogg, Mafi, then there are players who are stepping up who was in poor form last year, Horwill is back to his best after his injuries od last year, Higginbotham is playing great rugby, Mowen etc makes their backrow well balanced and provides depth.

Berrick Barnes has hit form, Coopr is in very good form, O' Connor is back.

ioane is running as strong as ever.

Folau has provided depth at full back, so I am promising you that the Wallabies will be stronger this year.

by Taylorman Sat May 18, 2013 8:42 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:I agree super form is far more relevant down under, but what exactly is different between this year than last... Brumbies starting stronger, that is it really!

I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

The big losses last year were a fully firing Cooper, JOC, Mitchell, and Genia late in the summer tests. Genia is the only one to return without a question mark, and this year Pocock, JOC, Mitchell, Sharpe and Beale are all missing.

I understand that Aus are due a swing in form and performances, but I don't see where it's coming from with such an unbalanced squad, I'm amazed noone see's where I'm coming from!

They dont need much of a swing vs NH sides- they knocked Wales 4 straight last year and the basis of that side forms the nucleus of the Lions and the Lions at best are marginally better than the best NH side, and even thats debatable. You talk oz down but still only have the Scot result last year as an actual win. Ok to be confident but surely the actual winning of test matches has to be in there somewhere to support it.

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 8:47 pm

Taylorman wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I agree super form is far more relevant down under, but what exactly is different between this year than last... Brumbies starting stronger, that is it really!

I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

The big losses last year were a fully firing Cooper, JOC, Mitchell, and Genia late in the summer tests. Genia is the only one to return without a question mark, and this year Pocock, JOC, Mitchell, Sharpe and Beale are all missing.

I understand that Aus are due a swing in form and performances, but I don't see where it's coming from with such an unbalanced squad, I'm amazed noone see's where I'm coming from!

They dont need much of a swing vs NH sides- they knocked Wales 4 straight last year and the basis of that side forms the nucleus of the Lions and the Lions at best are marginally better than the best NH side, and even thats debatable. You talk oz down but still only have the Scot result last year as an actual win. Ok to be confident but surely the actual winning of test matches has to be in there somewhere to support it.

Not really, 2 injury hit sides in the summer on Aus soil and 2 of the test were stolen at the death, Wales were missing more tight 5 members than Aus were missing squad men in December, including 4 tightheads props and 4 locks, so 4 straight doesn't tell much of a story except for the Welsh mindset IMHO. Highlighted by Wales ability to get thouroughly beaten and deservedly beaten by Argentina and Samoa, of which both looked better than Aus.

My confidence is pretty low, but I am just trying to highlight in which way the Aus national team has improved, or even maintained where they were last year, with injuries and issues they look as if not weaker than last year.

Let me ask your precise reasons on why you think Aus have improved, what has happened, and how would they perform in the 4N compared to last year?

by Full Credit Sat May 18, 2013 8:47 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

Horwill, Pocock, Kepu and Palu were all injured last year and Sharpe was virtually plucked out of retirement / obscurity. Hooper and Gill came of age because of Pococks absence. Dennis is pretty average at the best of times.

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 8:49 pm

Full Credit wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

Horwill, Pocock, Kepu and Palu were all injured last year and Sharpe was virtually plucked out of retirement / obscurity. Hooper and Gill came of age because of Pococks absence. Dennis is pretty average at the best of times.

Except all players played V Wales in more than 1 test, Sharpe was Aus best player by a country mile last season!!!

by **Biltong** Sat May 18, 2013 8:54 pm

I think we will justhave to wait for the test series, all I know it is going to be a humdinger.

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 8:57 pm

Biltong wrote:I think we will justhave to wait for the test series, all I know it is going to be a humdinger.

I thought so too, but with injuries, and if Cooper, Beale don't make it at 100% it's going to lose it's shine!!

I want to see the lions play Aus at 100%, their best players playing at their best, and currently it's a poor mans version of that in the current squad IMHO!!!

Maybe thats why I'm getting so aggressive, losing to Aus in the summer was poor by Wales, we were the stronger team on paper, and losing to this Aus team on a lions tour would be even worse!!!

by Taylorman Sat May 18, 2013 9:15 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:
Taylorman wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I agree super form is far more relevant down under, but what exactly is different between this year than last... Brumbies starting stronger, that is it really!

I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

The big losses last year were a fully firing Cooper, JOC, Mitchell, and Genia late in the summer tests. Genia is the only one to return without a question mark, and this year Pocock, JOC, Mitchell, Sharpe and Beale are all missing.

I understand that Aus are due a swing in form and performances, but I don't see where it's coming from with such an unbalanced squad, I'm amazed noone see's where I'm coming from!

They dont need much of a swing vs NH sides- they knocked Wales 4 straight last year and the basis of that side forms the nucleus of the Lions and the Lions at best are marginally better than the best NH side, and even thats debatable. You talk oz down but still only have the Scot result last year as an actual win. Ok to be confident but surely the actual winning of test matches has to be in there somewhere to support it.

Not really, 2 injury hit sides in the summer on Aus soil and 2 of the test were stolen at the death, Wales were missing more tight 5 members than Aus were missing squad men in December, including 4 tightheads props and 4 locks, so 4 straight doesn't tell much of a story except for the Welsh mindset IMHO. Highlighted by Wales ability to get thouroughly beaten and deservedly beaten by Argentina and Samoa, of which both looked better than Aus.

My confidence is pretty low, but I am just trying to highlight in which way the Aus national team has improved, or even maintained where they were last year, with injuries and issues they look as if not weaker than last year.

Let me ask your precise reasons on why you think Aus have improved, what has happened, and how would they perform in the 4N compared to last year?

First of all, Oz results wise werent bad. They beat Wales 4 times, SA once, Arg twice, England and drew with NZ. and came second in the 4N.

Those results justified their second ranking. Sure they lost to Scotland and France but who had a better year than Oz? Only NZ.

This year I dont expect them to improve their 4N position cos that would mean defeating NZ and with only one test loss last year and a 6-0 sweep of the first 4N we are not ready to forfeit that position.

But we wont get another 6-0.

Sharpe was awesome last year but he had to be, they didnt have a lot left. This year they have Horwill back and other options at lock, and in other positions- 7, 10, 12, wing and FB that just werent there last year.

by thebluesmancometh Sat May 18, 2013 9:25 pm

Taylorman wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
Taylorman wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I agree super form is far more relevant down under, but what exactly is different between this year than last... Brumbies starting stronger, that is it really!

I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

The big losses last year were a fully firing Cooper, JOC, Mitchell, and Genia late in the summer tests. Genia is the only one to return without a question mark, and this year Pocock, JOC, Mitchell, Sharpe and Beale are all missing.

I understand that Aus are due a swing in form and performances, but I don't see where it's coming from with such an unbalanced squad, I'm amazed noone see's where I'm coming from!

They dont need much of a swing vs NH sides- they knocked Wales 4 straight last year and the basis of that side forms the nucleus of the Lions and the Lions at best are marginally better than the best NH side, and even thats debatable. You talk oz down but still only have the Scot result last year as an actual win. Ok to be confident but surely the actual winning of test matches has to be in there somewhere to support it.

Not really, 2 injury hit sides in the summer on Aus soil and 2 of the test were stolen at the death, Wales were missing more tight 5 members than Aus were missing squad men in December, including 4 tightheads props and 4 locks, so 4 straight doesn't tell much of a story except for the Welsh mindset IMHO. Highlighted by Wales ability to get thouroughly beaten and deservedly beaten by Argentina and Samoa, of which both looked better than Aus.

My confidence is pretty low, but I am just trying to highlight in which way the Aus national team has improved, or even maintained where they were last year, with injuries and issues they look as if not weaker than last year.

Let me ask your precise reasons on why you think Aus have improved, what has happened, and how would they perform in the 4N compared to last year?

First of all, Oz results wise werent bad. They beat Wales 4 times, SA once, Arg twice, England and drew with NZ. and came second in the 4N.

Those results justified their second ranking. Sure they lost to Scotland and France but who had a better year than Oz? Only NZ.

This year I dont expect them to improve their 4N position cos that would mean defeating NZ and with only one test loss last year and a 6-0 sweep of the first 4N we are not ready to forfeit that position.

But we wont get another 6-0.

Sharpe was awesome last year but he had to be, they didnt have a lot left. This year they have Horwill back and other options at lock, and in other positions- 7, 10, 12, wing and FB that just werent there last year.

No you are right results weren't that bad, considering the thumping off France and beaten at home by Scotland, also that draw v NZ cam from nowhere!!

Sharpe was excellent ithout a good partner, but Horwill has not partner really either, but who are these options at 7 they never had? Pocock was there! 10? Beale and Cooper may not be there, Harris and Barnes are weaker options, 12 JOC out again, where is Mccabe? is he playing? wing? Folou is uncapped, Ioane played, Mitchell? and FB? Beale out, Mogg untested???

And just to clarify I'm not saying this as a lions fan, if I were a Samoan or Argie I'd certainly be fancying beating Aus at present!

by Taylorman Sun May 19, 2013 1:55 am

Just cos Folaus uncapped he's not typical of the standard uncapped player. In the NRL he was the youngest player to play for the Storm and in his debut year at 17 went on to play every match and top try scorer. Then became the youngest ever to represent Oz and won NRL and Stte of Origin titles.

This means hes a quick learner, and has star quality in a club competition probably only rivalled by the sxv in terms of league or rugby talent on show.

This year hes learnt the game in short time and is thriving. To dismiss him as 'uncapped' is short sighted and certainly Gatland will not be doing that if hes selected. He will be the Wallabies primary strike weapon.

Why then are the ozzie sides outpointing the NZ and SA sides where they werent last year? The answer is depth and players across the board playing to higher levels. Without picking out individuals that is a better sign than picking out the beale/ mitchell etc individual concerns. As a level of play, it is higher in oz than last year, and that should be more conerning to the Lions than the concerns of a few. They're 'game' is at a higher level and where they normally have had to feed off scraps, they now have options.

by **Pal Joey** Sun May 19, 2013 2:48 am

No use arguing with a drunken Welshman, Taylor. Wink

I feel a little sorry about George Smith's injury last night. RD says he will leave the door open for him but let's be honest - I don't think there will be enough time. Besides, I think Hooper deserves to start in the 1st Test. He played better than GS last night; more positive with the ball in hand and did his fair share of spoiling as well.

Bad luck about TPN but I'd have Moore over him anyway. Maybe opens the door for Saia Faingaa on the bench though. steam

Lealiifano didn't come on for the 2nd half and looked below par in the 1st. Let's hope it's not something serious. Also, McCabe hobbled off with 10 mins to go after replacing Leal'o. Think we need him fit as a defensive centre option and his Test match experience... RD loves him anyway.

Jesse Mogg is popular with everyone here and he made one of his trademark runs again last night. I think Folau will be named as FB but with Mogg and two of Cummins, Tapuai, Toomua, White or Foley as the backs subs.

I must say (in hindsight) I had a good feeling about the match during the warm ups. Lots of dropped ball in the Brumbies backline moves... or they just didn't seem to be pushing things or show any urgency. At the other end, the Tahs looked like they were on a mission and had a more professional air about them. So, an error free warm up! Smile

I wrote a little on the game itself on the Super XV thread.

Berrick Barnes was pretty classy - he has to be in the 22. I'm also thinking we need Timani; maybe not as a starter but certainly off the bench. He monstered a few Brumbies in some bone-crunching tackles and looked a handful at times!

Anyway, the Wallaby team will be announced at 2pm... not long to go now.

I'd be shattered if Izzy isn't there. Cooper may not be named today but I think he will be called up at the 11th hour - which would be a bit rude and unfair I believe. RD should do the right thing and get him on the team sheet!

by **Biltong** Sun May 19, 2013 6:20 am

Wallaby core squad announced

Forwards:
Saia Faingaa, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Benn Robinson, Ben Alexander, James Slipper, Sitaleki Timani, James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Ben Mowen, Scott Higginbotham, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu

Backs:
Will Genia, James O’Connor, Berrick Barnes, Christian Lealiifano, Pat McCabe, Rob Horne, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Nick Cummins, Joe Tomane, Digby Ioane, Israel Folau

No Cooper, it seems Deans has not forgiven Cooper.

by **Pal Joey** Sun May 19, 2013 6:43 am

Not yet anyway....

by Full Credit Sun May 19, 2013 6:46 am

thebluesmancometh wrote:
Full Credit wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

Horwill, Pocock, Kepu and Palu were all injured last year and Sharpe was virtually plucked out of retirement / obscurity. Hooper and Gill came of age because of Pococks absence. Dennis is pretty average at the best of times.

Except all players played V Wales in more than 1 test, Sharpe was Aus best player by a country mile last season!!!

I'm not really sure what Wales has to do with this. Stating that our pack was at full strength last year is a bit different to saying they all played at least 1 game against Wales. And as well as Sharpie played last year, he was not first choice to the best of my recollection. Horwill (who did not play a test against Wales last year) and Timani were injured so Sharpe got the call up.

by **George Carlin** Sun May 19, 2013 8:52 am

I love that after every Rattue article they [have to] print this disclaimer:

Readers are reminded that comments must contain language that is suitable for publication and should not contain insults.

I don't want to wade too far into what has turned into quite a heated debate but I will say that I started a thread a while ago about familiarity with our players in the NH breeding contempt. Just because there won't be much about the Lions that innovates in terms of gameplan or in most of the combinations chosen, it doesn't mean that they won't win with it because a number of these players are absolutely outstanding in their own right and we should remind ourselves of this.

Wales on their own have come desperately close to beating the Wallabies on the past 4 occasions so to add some other players to that mix to iron out some of the relative Welsh weaknesses (at 10, at 8, lack of variety in terms of wing play) could well be all that the NH collective need to turn the losses into victories.

It's very hard to judge because it's difficult to find commentators that have an equally good knowledge of NH and SH rugby. Deans was correct to point out that Super 15 rugby is not test rugby. S15 looks great, with few players committing to rucks, more risks being taken and the average back three player choosing to run the ball back on the dry, hard pitches. We all know that NH stuff is slower, more attritional and many teams have fashioned a winning strategy out of the possession game and playing with fewer mistakes than the team opposite them.

It's whoever can dictate the pace and tactics of the games that will win the series. It's unfortunate that the Lions will stick to the 'pill up the jumper' stuff but it's out best chance of winning it. But win it they might because the Lions XV is potentially stuffed full of leaders (O'Connell, O'Driscoll, Warbuton, Heaslip) who have shown if nothing else the ability to absorb the pressure and close out these brutally tight games.

The bottom line is that there are some players in each position who bring flair rather than grunt (BOD, Bowe, Hogg, Maitland and Vunipola to name just a few). The fact is, however, that Gatland may not choose them.

by thebluesmancometh Sun May 19, 2013 10:27 am

Full Credit wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
Full Credit wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:I know what your saying that there are less injuries, but most of the injuries last year were to fringe players, the pack was probably at full strength with the likes of Robinson, Alexander, Nau, Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, Slipper, Higgs, Pocock, Palu all available, Hooper Gill, Dennis all playing too.

Horwill, Pocock, Kepu and Palu were all injured last year and Sharpe was virtually plucked out of retirement / obscurity. Hooper and Gill came of age because of Pococks absence. Dennis is pretty average at the best of times.

Except all players played V Wales in more than 1 test, Sharpe was Aus best player by a country mile last season!!!

I'm not really sure what Wales has to do with this. Stating that our pack was at full strength last year is a bit different to saying they all played at least 1 game against Wales. And as well as Sharpie played last year, he was not first choice to the best of my recollection. Horwill (who did not play a test against Wales last year) and Timani were injured so Sharpe got the call up.

Wales has to do with it because the Wales wins were part of the argument that the lions will lose... And I id said more than one, as in most played 3 of the 4 tests.

Sharpe was in the squad because of Horwills injury but he was Ausies best player last season by a mile, he was incredible.

With regardsa to the superior super performances where are they, only the Brumbies are doing any better than last year, Reds were up there and Tahs and Rebels are now where they finished last year!

I'm looking at the Aus squad and it looks as bad as last year, this is in no way anything like the Australia we all know and love, all these players who were argued to be there when they were'nt last year still aren't there.

Folau is a cracking player I grant you, but build him up so superstar level before his first cap at your own peril, until he gets a few caps under his belt noone knows how he will perform, he is similar to Alex Cuthbert great strike runner but flawed otherwise, how many super players have we seen run a muck in their first season to struggle on the int stage, right now he is on fire, but come test time I'll judge him on what he can do, you wouln't rank him as high as Ioane, simply because Ioane is proven!

I still havn't budged, Aus are weak for their standards, and I'm worried more than ever about a lions whitewash, noone wants that.

by kiakahaaotearoa Sun May 19, 2013 11:15 am

Don't worry blues. I think the Lions will squeak a game somewhere. Whistle

by thebluesmancometh Sun May 19, 2013 11:28 am

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Don't worry blues. I think the Lions will squeak a game somewhere.

Aye, but as it stands what challenge is there after they leave HK? The ba baa's team is impressive, and looks like a team to compete and not just play, right now I am more worried about that game than the tests...

by **Pal Joey** Sun May 19, 2013 11:28 am

You've tipped them to win under the closed roof this time, kia? Wink

by Taylorman Mon May 20, 2013 2:05 am

thebluesmancometh wrote:

I still havn't budged, Aus are weak for their standards, and I'm worried more than ever about a lions whitewash, noone wants that.

Don't worry Bluesman, its never happened before and it certainly aint going to happen this year.

All we are saying is last year the Oz sides were all losing heavily to their SH sxv counterparts. This year theyre the strongest of the 3 on a head to head basis.

That is an improvement.

If all the Welsh regions suddenly started beating all and sundry where the previous year they hadnt would you expect a better performance from the Welsh side? I would.

And where does this 3-0 Lions fear of yours come from? Where are all these Ozzie beating players coming from? Can't see many on this tour. Theyve all in fact been very successful at losing on several occasions.

And without any historical evidence of winning theres suddenly a winning formula within this side? Pleeease...

by Icu Mon May 20, 2013 2:34 am

thebluesmancometh wrote:

I agree however a whitewash is a very real possibility, but I don't see Aus doing it at all, normally when you hear comments from coaches regarding getting their house in order and it doesn't matter what the opposition do it's BS, but this time Gats only has to get the team playing at 80% to beat the Aussies in my opinion, there is very little to worry about if the lions get things right.

I said it before the tour, and will stick with it 3 - 0 lions.

80%? Pass me a grain of salt please.
Perhaps you are unaware, but less than 12 months ago we encountered a group of blow-hards (dressed in Red too) from the NH who traveled down here proclaiming to all and sundry they were gonna teach us a rugby lesson, smash us off the park etc. I can even remember reading these jokers proclaiming if it weren't for the referee they would've made the RWC final and beaten the AB's. I was so worried about the pasting these World-Champions-By-Default were going to give us that i had to buy a new pair of boots to shake in. As it turned out my fear was completely unfounded and that particular Red team went home with their tail between their legs, having lost every single Test. Perhaps they thought they only had to play at 80% too? Forgive me for being blase' but statements like this are valid when a team walks the walk rather than just talks the talk - maybe if they put 40+ points on the SXV teams they play then your statement may have some merit. I am in no way disregarding the threat this Lions team poses to the Wallabies - they are the strongest team from the NH to visit here since England in 2003 but to believe they only need to play at 80% to win the series 3-0 is fantasy at best.

Still, I hope the Lions players and coaching staff possess the same level of over-confidence as you. I can just imagine the team talk going something like - "Don't worry boys, these Aussies are weak. We only have to turn up to win. They'll go to water at the first sight of us. The scrum is useless and will fold. They are that desperate they've had to enlist George Smith, a 32 year old geriatric forward who needs a walking stick to get around - if you seem him near the ball don't worry, he can't do much. Even funnier, they've had to raid the NRL for a player to make up their backline. Don't worry too much about this guy either. We haven't bothered to do any research on him but rest assured the Aussies must be desperate to take an NRL player. Oh, and the 5/8 is a flake so he'll crack at the first sign of pressure. Remember boys, 80% is all that's required if we get things right. I know how to beat these Aussies - the national team i coach has played them 4 times in the past 12 months so we have experience in playing these blokes. We've got their number....."

by Taylorman Mon May 20, 2013 4:13 am

For me its more about which is the better coach...the North Islander or the Cantabrian... Run

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 7:54 am

Taylorman, your statistic about the Australian conference is a tad out dated mate.

The current situation between the three countries stand like this.

SA 19.5/37 = 52.7%
NZ 17/33 = 61.5%
OZ 15.5/34 = 45.6%

OZ 8-NZ 7
SA 11.5 - OZ 7.5
NZ 10- SA 8

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 8:00 am

Hmmm, most teams 20% off their game see their backsides, even the All Blacks.

It is going to take a 100% effort from either team to win, 80% won't cut it.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 9:18 am

I love it, the Welsh going down with their chests out, talking about series wins and teaching the Aussies a lesson?

Or one of the strongest teams Wales have been able to take down in years and looking for their first win in donkeys, the best chance Wales have had to win in Aus in forever, noone on here but me saw a Wales series win coming, but most agreed they had as good if not a stronger squad to select from.

And with regards to the 80%, it's impossible for the lions to rock up at 100% like most international teams can, they arent a bonded group with any form or cohesion, so 100% is out of the question. My point was that if the team can unify to a good level, get things right in their camp and play to anywhere near a similar standard of 4 years ago Aus will have no answer.

I think it's safe to say this Aus team isn't anything compared to SA of 2009, there is nowhere near the ability or unit balance or quality on show, and the lions at this point have to see themselves as favourites!

Regarding the Aus franchises, how exactly are they all winning, all but the Brumbies are having the same season as last year, it is ONLY the Brumbies who are going better, Reds, Force, Rebels and Tahs are all in very similar standings to last seasons finish, so how exactly are they beating all and sundry? To compare to the Welsh regions it's similar to one of them making it out of their HC group, but the key word is ONE!!!

I am literally amazed that there is noone looking at this Aus side as a shadow of it's former self, and the weakest of the SANZAR teams by a mile, infact i'd have my money on a first Argie win over this squa selected at present.

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 9:21 am

Geez, Bluesman, it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself.

I am trying to figure out why you believe this is a weak Aussie squad.

The one thing the Ozzies have plenty of is smarts, and it pains me to say it, a lot of smarts, they win matches they shouldn't.

But they do.

by Taylorman Mon May 20, 2013 9:29 am

Biltong wrote:Taylorman, your statistic about the Australian conference is a tad out dated mate.

The current situation between the three countries stand like this.

SA 19.5/37 = 52.7%
NZ 17/33 = 61.5%
OZ 15.5/34 = 45.6%

OZ 8-NZ 7
SA 11.5 - OZ 7.5
NZ 10- SA 8

Yes I had a feeling SA were outdoing oz...last weekend sure helped. I had separated out the top 3 sides only but agree it wasnt very thorough. Oz are getting peeled back a bit I agree.

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 9:43 am

Taylorman wrote:
Biltong wrote:Taylorman, your statistic about the Australian conference is a tad out dated mate.

The current situation between the three countries stand like this.

SA 19.5/37 = 52.7%
NZ 17/33 = 61.5%
OZ 15.5/34 = 45.6%

OZ 8-NZ 7
SA 11.5 - OZ 7.5
NZ 10- SA 8

Yes I had a feeling SA were outdoing oz...last weekend sure helped. I had separated out the top 3 sides only but agree it wasnt very thorough. Oz are getting peeled back a bit I agree.

The problem in the beginning of the season is that the fixtures can be swayed to stronger teams from one country against weaker teams from another, OZ was leading NZ 8-2 at one stage, but have lost the last 5 between them.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 10:39 am

Biltong wrote:Geez, Bluesman, it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself.

I am trying to figure out why you believe this is a weak Aussie squad.

The one thing the Ozzies have plenty of is smarts, and it pains me to say it, a lot of smarts, they win matches they shouldn't.

But they do.

Maybe a touch Laugh

The reason I think this is a weak Aussie squad is as you put it, anyone dipping to 80% performance gets beat, and with the likes of Pocock, Beale, Cooper, Sharpe, TPN, Mccabe and JOC all out, added to players like Higginbotham having to move to 8 (he is a world class 6 but only a solid 8 IMHO) no quality options at lock, uneven back row options and inexperience brought into the backline I think Aus are below 80%, they still have every issue they had last year and arguably more so in the Cooper, Beale debacle!

Nothing about Aus worries me as a rugby fan, are you telling me Biltong that you wouldn't fancy SA over Aus right now?

As I said previously, the key to Aus winning this was always going to be Genia Cooper axis, and well that isn't there right now, and if it is come test time there are still issues between him and the coach, and other non reds players.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 10:53 am

Also someone mentioned the lions squad not having the talent to win, and I'd have to agree, there is a lack of perceived talent within the squad, and in at least half the squad there is a more talented option left at home.

However perceived 'talent' is overrated on the int scene, by talent I'm sure you all mean rounded players, good at all facets of play, ability to have vision, distribution etc...

I'd agree that the likes of Roberts, Phillips, Hibbard, Cuthbert, Tuilagi, Farell etc all have flaws, however they are extremely specialist and are immense weapons when used correctly. Gatland has a great ability to utilise weaponry in a destructive manner, the Welsh backline focus's on strike plays more than most because of the weaponry at their disposal, they look to the scrum for dominance, and execute an agressive kick chase plan, all based around high conditioning levels and bludgery in midfield.

I think Gatland has chosen a far smaller and mobile pack than he could have, and I think with the added guile of players like Bowe, Sexton, Maitland, BOD he has chosen to employ similar tactics with a much stronger squad selected to do exactly that.

My thinking is that Gats will pound the midfield with the likes of Roberts, Cuthbert and North, and Sexton and BOD utilised for wider play, the pack will be the most mobile and agressive defencively I've ever seen Cole, Hibbard Heally... Shocked

With bench options any team in world rugby would relish this time around.

I just don't see what Aus have to counter such a plan, I don't get why everyone is convinced Aus will score tries and we have to outscore them? You don't travel to Brazil in order to score more goals than them, you contain and dominate posession!

Gatland has learnt the hard way of the positives and negatives of his gameplan, the 4 games last season were very telling of Aus, the gameplan was sussesfull 3/4 times, and the time it wasn't Howler selected an unfit and unready pack! Add to the Wales team of last year more options, more firepower and more quality (especially at 10) and I don't see how they can be beat by a similar if not weaker Aus team!

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 10:56 am

I don't think there is a lack of talent in either team, I do however think the smarts and creativity of the Wallabies individual players evens up the score.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 11:04 am

Biltong wrote:I don't think there is a lack of talent in either team, I do however think the smarts and creativity of the Wallabies individual players evens up the score.

I disagree, especially in the backline, the creativity is missing with key players out, what the Aus backline have is very talented players ball in hand, sucha as Ioane, Folou, Leilafano, AAC etc... they are great players but no real creativity, Genia will have to shoulder a lot of burden IMHO, and the lions defencive system is designed to win the brutality battle of strike runners.

I'll be very interested to see how RD will play, if he reverts to a similar style to the lions with Barnes kicking a lot of ball for the backline to chase I think they are in serious trouble, if they try to match the lions head to head with the physical backline they are in serious trouble, I really think Aus's best chance stands in moving the point of attack away from contact and using their talented packs ability to pass/offload, but thats risky and the exact reason Gats has picked a very mobile pack I think.

Out of interest who would your Aus 15 be and what tactics would you employ bilt?

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 11:07 am

Genia, 'Connor, Folau not creative?

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 11:09 am

JOC isn't where he was 2 years ago, he looks good in small parts but is nowhere near consistent enough, Folau isn't particularly creative, he's a good finisher, and has put others in around him at club level, he hasn't seen the intensity at test level, he is untried and untested and I don't think RD will start either anyway.

Like I said Genia has to take a lot of the burden.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 11:10 am

Your 15 and tactics?

by **Biltong** Mon May 20, 2013 11:10 am

Ok, now that we have pulled apart the OZZies, shall w now start with the Lions?

by GunsGerms Mon May 20, 2013 11:12 am

Biltong wrote:Genia, 'Connor, Folau not creative?

Is O'Connor not going to be out with injury? Folau is a winger so can he really be called creative? He probably wont start anyway. Genia is good at mixing things up and making breaks so is very creative.

by fa0019 Mon May 20, 2013 11:13 am

I would think AUS would beat SA at the moment. Look at a potential match up with injuries included.

SA

Beast, Strauss, Du Plessis, Etzebeth, Kruger, Alberts, Coetzee, Spies, Hougaard, Steyn, Habana, De Villiers, De Jongh, Pietersen, Kirchner.

AUS

Robinson, Sharpe, Alexander, Timani, Horwill, Higginbottom, Hooper, Mowan, Genia, Barnes, Ioane, O'Connor, Ashely-Cooper, Tomane, Mogg.

From that, well the halfbacks, centres and 3/4 are superior.

The backrows look a decent contest but crucially SA's front five is nothing special and AUS' is of a decent standard. They won't get dominated. That means AUS backrow won't be on the back foot and overall they are better players on the floor then Alberts, Coetzee and Spies.

AUS would win, certainly at home and probably away too.

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 11:14 am

I think RD will go for...

Robinson
Moore
Alexander
Horwill
Dennis/ Timane?
Gill
Hooper
Higginbotham
Genia
Barnes
Ioane
Leilafano
Horne
Cummins
AAC

Maybe (from the squad so far anyway) I think he'll be safe in his selection.

by kiakahaaotearoa Mon May 20, 2013 11:15 am

80 per cent. 100 per cent. They're both not enough. I never settle for anything less than 137 percent....

by thebluesmancometh Mon May 20, 2013 11:16 am

fa0019 wrote:I would think AUS would beat SA at the moment. Look at a potential match up with injuries included.

SA

Beast, Strauss, Du Plessis, Etzebeth, Kruger, Alberts, Coetzee, Spies, Hougaard, Steyn, Habana, De Villiers, De Jongh, Pietersen, Kirchner.

AUS

Robinson, Sharpe, Alexander, Timani, Horwill, Higginbottom, Hooper, Mowan, Genia, Barnes, Ioane, O'Connor, Ashely-Cooper, Tomane, Mogg.

From that, well the halfbacks, centres and 3/4 are superior.

The backrows look a decent contest but crucially SA's front five is nothing special and AUS' is of a decent standard. They won't get dominated. That means AUS backrow won't be on the back foot and overall they are better players on the floor then Alberts, Coetzee and Spies.

AUS would win, certainly at home and probably away too.

No chance, although that wouldn't be my SA team exactly.

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