What makes a "Tough Group" in European Rugby?

by MrsP Sun 02 Jun 2013, 12:47 pm

First topic message reminder :

Do you think your team had a tough group in the HEC this season?

When the draw was announced I thought we hadn't done too badly to get Glasgow, Castres and Saints. Now that the season is over it turns out all 4 of the teams in Group 4 made the semi-finals of their domestic competition at the very least.

One winner, 2 beaten finalists and a semifinalist.

Shocked

All 4 teams finished in the top third of the Euro Table Rankings

Every other group had 2 teams, and in one case 3 teams who ended the season below our lowest placed team.

Group	Teams	Eurotable Ranking Total	Eurotable Rating Total
1	Ed/Mun/Rac/Sar	64	261.96
2	Trev/Tig/Os/Toulouse	58	276.90
3	Con/Quin/Biar/Zeb	97	203.62
4	Cast/Glas/Saints/Uls	37	308.20
5	ASM/Ex/Lein/Scar	42	317.14
6	Card/Sale/Mont/Toulon	66	266.18

So, was Group 4 actually the group of death?

PS. I have never tried to do a table before so Fingers Crossed

by funnyExiledScot Tue 04 Jun 2013, 6:23 pm

beshocked wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:The group with Edinburgh in it should be the easiest group. Worse than the Zebras and Connacht in Europe. Zero resistance. We should have given Sarries the 10 points and saved them the bother of travelling.

If it's so easy to get 10 points vs Edinburgh how come neither Munster nor Racing Metro managed it?

I think that's the nicest thing anyone's said about Edinburgh this season! thumbsup

by St John The Enforcer Tue 04 Jun 2013, 6:31 pm

doctor_grey wrote:
Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:You Europeans don't know what a tough group is.

Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues, Hurricanes, Highlanders.
Every ****** year.

Just once it'd be nice to swap in the Southern Kings or the Force or the Rebels ...
Or even a couple of nice mid-table Rabo or AP sides

Europeans? Are you kidding me?
There are no Europeans here, at leas that I am aware of.
Those of us you accuse of being Europeans are mostly Brits and Irish by country and geography.
By nationality and background we are many, including Leinstermen, Munstermen, Ultsermen, Cannuckians, Lowland Scots, Highland Scots, Cornish, Manx, Northern-ish, Kentish, English, Squimish, Western, and, umm....err......., oh yes, Welsh.

Please do not connect us or affiliate us (or contaminate us) with the great unwashed on that....ummm..... errrr..... continent somewhere off our southwestern coast. Europe was put there because no one else would take it and it had to go somewhere. Dover Castle was built a thousand years ago to keep them out. Its record is unblemished.

Ah here! We are all Europeans over here, sure we're in the Euro n'everything! It's that bit of land between us and the mainland that's the problem.......

by Portnoy's Complaint Tue 04 Jun 2013, 7:57 pm

greytiger wrote:Is this post open to analytical peer review?

If so, I'll do some analysis.
But it may take a day or two.

1st stumbling block. Anyone know how/has access to the ERC rankings applied to the 2012/13 pool draw?
The ERC in their pathetic wisdom doesn't appear to archive them.

I've a lovely spreadsheet of this year's final standings though.

by Feckless Rogue Tue 04 Jun 2013, 8:17 pm

I once made tables in a post here to show the structure of a new European tournament I dreamt up when I should have been doing something worthwhile. It is actually quite difficult. So kudos on the table.

But I'd prefer a graph which uses logarithmic values and gives us a slope from which we can extract something deeply meaningful. Get on it MrsP.

by Hound of Harrow Tue 04 Jun 2013, 9:55 pm

What's the HC? It's been so long...
Sad

And spare my lot Thursday away games in the Amlin mad

by MrsP Tue 04 Jun 2013, 10:00 pm

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Very Happy

by Feckless Rogue Tue 04 Jun 2013, 10:40 pm

It all makes sense now.

by MrsP Tue 04 Jun 2013, 11:59 pm

beshocked wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:The group with Edinburgh in it should be the easiest group. Worse than the Zebras and Connacht in Europe. Zero resistance. We should have given Sarries the 10 points and saved them the bother of travelling.

If it's so easy to get 10 points vs Edinburgh how come neither Munster nor Racing Metro managed it?

Grey your logic is flawed. It certainly doesn't take into account fighting on two fronts.

Something that none of Glasgow,Castres or Saints had to do which made it far easier to progress domestically. Adding on top of that Castres had virtually no internationals missing. Don't remember Saints having too many away with England either. This meant that these two sides had fresh players for the business end with just one focus - the playoffs. Their league form saw them both come 4th - far behind in the wins and points to the two sides they beat.

None of the semi finalists or finalists in the HC managed to win their domestic league.

I am not sure what Castres record is like vs Clermont overall but Saints record vs Sarries is pretty shocking. Saints lost twice to them during the normal season but won the playoff game. I wouldn't say that makes Saints a better side. It's just about time Saints actually won a game vs Sarries - the motivation was there.

I would still rate Clermont higher than Castres and Sarries above Saints if we take into account league form and HC form (not a one off playoff game).

I thought you suggested we shouldn't look at domestic form?

Anyway, try reading that like this...

..I am not sure what Castres record is like vs Clermont overall but ~~Saints~~ Leinster's record vs ~~Sarries~~ Ulster is pretty shocking. ~~Saints~~ Leinster lost twice to them during the normal season but won the playoff game. I wouldn't say that makes ~~Saints~~ Leinster a better side. It's just about time ~~Saints~~ Leinster actually won a game vs ~~Sarries~~ Ulster - the motivation was there.

Very Happy

by doctor_grey Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:39 am

Mrs.P
You are a rascal.
That is a thing of beauty.

by **Pal Joey** Wed 05 Jun 2013, 5:58 am

Boom Boom! Very Happy

It all makes sense to me now. Thanks for the facts!

by SecretFly Wed 05 Jun 2013, 10:44 am

Winning at the right time is the real trick.

by doctor_grey Wed 05 Jun 2013, 1:51 pm

beshocked wrote:Grey your logic is flawed.

Impossible. I am The Doctor. My logic cannot be flawed.

beshocked wrote:It certainly doesn't take into account fighting on two fronts.

Something that none of Glasgow,Castres or Saints had to do which made it far easier to progress domestically. Adding on top of that Castres had virtually no internationals missing. Don't remember Saints having too many away with England either. This meant that these two sides had fresh players for the business end with just one focus - the playoffs. Their league form saw them both come 4th - far behind in the wins and points to the two sides they beat.

Can't speak for Castres, but Saints had a lot of Internationals away or injured. In the autumn, Saints were without Hartley, Lawes, Wood, Dowson, Dickson, Foden. In the winter/spring Foden was injured then returning to form. Dickson and Dowson were training with England but generally returined to Saints. And Saints absolutely were fighting on the two big fronts. Can't speak for Ulster, but they were obviously fighting both fronts, but had a plethora of injuries.

beshocked wrote:I am not sure what Castres record is like vs Clermont overall but Saints record vs Sarries is pretty shocking. Saints lost twice to them during the normal season but won the playoff game. I wouldn't say that makes Saints a better side. It's just about time Saints actually won a game vs Sarries - the motivation was there.

I would still rate Clermont higher than Castres and Sarries above Saints if we take into account league form and HC form (not a one off playoff game).

Well, we know this point was resoundingly answered (sorry, mate)

MrsP wrote:try reading that like this...

..I am not sure what Castres record is like vs Clermont overall but ~~Saints~~ Leinster's record vs ~~Sarries~~ Ulster is pretty shocking. ~~Saints~~ Leinster lost twice to them during the normal season but won the playoff game. I wouldn't say that makes ~~Saints~~ Leinster a better side. It's just about time ~~Saints~~ Leinster actually won a game vs ~~Sarries~~ Ulster - the motivation was there.

by beshocked Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:09 pm

MrsP it depends what you call domestic form.

Doctor grey when I say fighting on two fronts - I refer to the HC and AP. Exiting the HC in the pool stages doesn't count towards that. Having injuries to your international players meant they were fresh at the business end of the AP.

An example of the difficulty of fighting on two fronts was also shown by Saints when they reached the HC final, in the same year made the playoff semis. They lost both due to player burnout.

I don understand the relevance of Leinster and ulster when talking about Sarries and Saints. If you want to obviously talk about Leinster-Ulster - what's the overall record in pro12 encounters. According to you ulster mostly win?

No I don't understand Mrs P

by Coleman Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:13 pm

Pool 1 is STACKED!

by red_stag Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:21 pm

Some tough groups for next year. Scarlets have the worst draw of any team I have to say.

Munster get a lovely pool.

by ScarletSpiderman Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:35 pm

red_stag wrote:Some tough groups for next year. Scarlets have the worst draw of any team I have to say.

Munster get a lovely pool.

I really hate it when the HEC comes around and people do the easy and hard pool stuff, but I think there is no arguing the hard pool is Clermont, Quins, Scarlets and Racing, and the easy pool is Toulouse, Sarries, Connacht and Zebre.

by red_stag Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:37 pm

ScarletSpiderman wrote:
red_stag wrote:Some tough groups for next year. Scarlets have the worst draw of any team I have to say.

Munster get a lovely pool.

I really hate it when the HEC comes around and people do the easy and hard pool stuff, but I think there is no arguing the hard pool is Clermont, Quins, Scarlets and Racing, and the easy pool is Toulouse, Sarries, Connacht and Zebre.

Two things:

1) Why do you hate when people do it?

2) Why are you doing it if you hate people doing it?

by ScarletSpiderman Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:39 pm

I hate it because it always ends up in the good old 'my league is better than your league', and I did it because the subject was mentioned and I am bored at work. Any other questions (I have another few mins before I knock off).

by red_stag Wed 05 Jun 2013, 3:45 pm

ScarletSpiderman wrote:I hate it because it always ends up in the good old 'my league is better than your league', and I did it because the subject was mentioned and I am bored at work. Any other questions (I have another few mins before I knock off).

Yes,

Do you think that the influx of previously British & Irish based players to Racing is likely to have them focusing more on the Heineken Cup (i.e. Johnny Sexton, Jamie Roberts, Dan Lydiate, Ronan O'Gara (as coach), Brian Mujati, Soane Tonga'uiha).

That group of players have appeared in 11 European Cup Finals between them and will be likely to be still fired up about Europe.

OR

Do you think that Racing will do what Castres have done and focus exclusively on one competition (i.e. French league). Both the head coach and assistant coach from Castres are joining Racing Metro. Will they implement this policy upon the team.

That will be very interesting to see I think.

by ChequeredJersey Wed 05 Jun 2013, 4:05 pm

red_stag wrote:
ScarletSpiderman wrote:I hate it because it always ends up in the good old 'my league is better than your league', and I did it because the subject was mentioned and I am bored at work. Any other questions (I have another few mins before I knock off).

Yes,

Do you think that the influx of previously British & Irish based players to Racing is likely to have them focusing more on the Heineken Cup (i.e. Johnny Sexton, Jamie Roberts, Dan Lydiate, Ronan O'Gara (as coach), Brian Mujati, Soane Tonga'uiha).

That group of players have appeared in 11 European Cup Finals between them and will be likely to be still fired up about Europe.

OR

Do you think that Racing will do what Castres have done and focus exclusively on one competition (i.e. French league). Both the head coach and assistant coach from Castres are joining Racing Metro. Will they implement this policy upon the team.

That will be very interesting to see I think.

It doesn't matter, 'cause Quins are going to cruise the group with 30 points , obviously Wink

by whocares Wed 05 Jun 2013, 4:09 pm

Racing has more than enough depth to compete seriously in the HC. however I doubt they will be competitive enough at the start of the season with so many new players to fit in so doubt they will stand much of a chance in this group.

by ScarletSpiderman Wed 05 Jun 2013, 4:19 pm

Their b&i imports will be keen to do the hec, and also will be looking to use the hec to impress national coaches, but lions burn out may occur.

Racing, imo, have enough to push on both fronts, but may 'pull out' of the hec if things go wonky on the home front, or if hec qfs start to slip away frim their grasp, a bit more like Agen or Monpellier had done in the past.

by Shifty Wed 05 Jun 2013, 8:42 pm

The Ospreys are always in the group of death because they are always the third ranked team!

Yet they nearly always win their home games, which basically sliminated themselves and the second placed team in the pool.

by Mickado Thu 06 Jun 2013, 11:58 am

I've run the numbers:

The toughest pool with a Mickado's coefficient of 21.42 is pool 5
With a score of 20.50 it's pool 1
then with 20.30 it's pool 4
with 16.21 it's pool 6
with 11.99 it's pool 2
and finally the handiest group is pool 3 with 7.62

by ScarletSpiderman Thu 06 Jun 2013, 3:09 pm

Mickado wrote:I've run the numbers:

The toughest pool with a Mickado's coefficient of 21.42 is pool 5
With a score of 20.50 it's pool 1
then with 20.30 it's pool 4
with 16.21 it's pool 6
with 11.99 it's pool 2
and finally the handiest group is pool 3 with 7.62

Fair play

by MrsP Thu 06 Jun 2013, 3:23 pm

Mickado wrote:I've run the numbers:

The toughest pool with a Mickado's coefficient of 21.42 is pool 5
With a score of 20.50 it's pool 1
then with 20.30 it's pool 4
with 16.21 it's pool 6
with 11.99 it's pool 2
and finally the handiest group is pool 3 with 7.62

I regret to inform you that your post must be disregarded as it has not been submitted in Tabular format!

Very Happy

by Mickado Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:28 am

MrsP wrote:
Mickado wrote:I've run the numbers:

The toughest pool with a Mickado's coefficient of 21.42 is pool 5
With a score of 20.50 it's pool 1
then with 20.30 it's pool 4
with 16.21 it's pool 6
with 11.99 it's pool 2
and finally the handiest group is pool 3 with 7.62

I regret to inform you that your post must be disregarded as it has not been submitted in Tabular format!

Rank	Pool Number	MiCoEff
1	5	21.42
2	1	20.50
3	4	20.30
4	6	16.21
5	2	11.99
6	3	7.62

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:32 am

Remember the good old days on the BBC site when the OP could delete posts?

Sometimes I miss those times....

Whistle

by Mickado Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:42 am

You better not be looking to delete my table, after I went to the trouble of formatting it so nicely, with the bold headers and the centred text Smile

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:56 am

Show off!

You'll have to teach me how to do that!

by Mickado Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:22 am

[.center.][.b.]Rank[./b.] [./center.]

With all the full stops removed instead of just the text itself. It ends up looking like a mess before you post it mind you.

by **Pal Joey** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:57 am

Beautiful Mick! Smile

I didn't have the heart to tell her....

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 12:02 pm

by **Pal Joey** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 1:08 pm

MrsP wrote:

by Jhamer25 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 1:50 pm

If your in the scarlet group you know your in a hard group. We always seem to have the hard teams like this year and next year we have had leinster, Clermont, harlaquins and racing metro. Just have to pray I guess

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:20 pm

I don't know how things wil go for next season but, by both of my measures, the order of the groups for 2013/14 from most difficult to easiest is:

Group 1
Group 4
Group 5
Group 2
Group 6
Group 3

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:23 pm

MrsP wrote:I don't know how things wil go for next season but, by both of my measures, the order of the groups for 2013/14 from most difficult to easiest is:

Group 1
Group 4
Group 5
Group 2
Group 6
Group 3

What, no table? Wink

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:36 pm

I knew it!!!!

I just knew some smart Alec would say that!!!!!

Doh

by MrsP Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:52 pm

Okay!

2013/2014 Table based on THIS seasons results.

Group	Teams	Eurotable Ranking Total	Eurotable Rating Total
1	Castre/Lein/Saints /Os	35	323.48
2	Card/Ex/Glas/Toulon	60	272.37
3	Con/Sarries/Toulouse/Zeb	86	218.55
4	ASM/Quins/Racing/Scar	44	305.83
5	Trev/Tigers/Mont/Uls	46	296.24
6	Ed/Glos/Mun/Perp	84	231.38

by **Pal Joey** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:58 pm

Ah, now that makes a lot of sense.

Group 3 will be difficult for Con/Zeb though, no?
And I'd hate to be Treviso in Group 5.

by Portnoy's Complaint Sat 08 Jun 2013, 4:45 am

Mrs P

When you say 'Eurotable', do you mean the ERC (as in Eric and Ern) one or the Eurotable as in the form guide?

by MrsP Sat 08 Jun 2013, 8:29 am

I meant the one I put a link to in the OP.

Here!

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