What Federer can & can't do any more

I was inspired by a comment by kingraf complimenting Feds 2007 y/e Masters win to check out a video.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=hImDde3_KOI

It's a bit of a Fed-worshippers effort but don't let that put you off.

At 5:26 we see a wonderful point that he can still do now. Great fun.

But the following point, at 6:18, is something you never see from him now.

It's quite instructive of where it's gone for him, I thought.

Your'e welcome, mate. It truly was a magnum opus (as was the object I compared it to)

Look at the defense of Fed very early in the video, Ferrer rockets a off forehand and followed by a cross court volley , yet Fed comfortably wins the point, Fed's defense use to be sublime at his prime and thats one of the reason why big hitters stood no chance against him, but now any one can cannon the defense.

All good things come to an end, so is Fed's time gradually.

@BB we can say n no. of things but the reality is he is slowly fading and unlikely we can such tennis again.

Unbelievable retrieving and defending. Clearly this is what made him so hard to beat back in the day and as you say it does show just how much slower he has got now. This was nearly 6 years ago and in that time a lot of matches played which is bound to take its toll on him. At nearly 32 I think fans of the sport and of him are fortunate enough to still have him playing.

Is there anyone up here who thinks he still can win even one slam? The pundits say Wimbledon is his best chance but considering he has not won a title since August and reached only 1 final this year, can he defend his title?

What a fantastic player this guy is.

I really hope we get another Nadal-Federer final at Wimbledon, and I don't mean that in a cynical way.

FedsFan wrote:The pundits say Wimbledon is his best chance but considering he has not won a title since August and reached only 1 final this year, can he defend his title?

If the weather is good and the forecast for the SE is reasonable, then he has a chance as I'm not certain of Novak's fitness or confidence and before we all go overboard let's see what Rafa's like after a spell of constant play away, away from the clay

That leaves Murray, who I think if he has fully recovered starts as favourite. But Andy is notoriously poor at firing out of the gates after a layoff

Fed's biggest problem could be, yet again, his QF - given that he can face The Berd Man, Nadal or Tsonga (although I think the latter will be shot)

I'm not going to rule it out - but if he doesn't win this year then that's his Slam career over, don't see him coping with a firing Novak / Andy at New York

It was the movement to the forehand that struck me the most. I can't quite recall the last time to was able to pull off one of those fast races to the deuce side and whack it down the line with such ferocity. It's become a go-to play for his opponents.

Nice mullet Ferrer had back then.
Ah, the good old days BB, I know how you feel looking back.
Is like when I watch reruns of Sampras vs Agassi in 99 Wimb final.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4Of-1LmlBA
The sound of the ball off Sampras' racquet is something else.

Federer starts as the favourite for Wimbledon, he's the 7 time champion.

Nadal and Djokovic probably tied 2nd favourites.

Murray's never beaten 2 off 3 best players in a major, so he's not gonna do it at Wimbledon.

banbrotam wrote:

FedsFan wrote:The pundits say Wimbledon is his best chance but considering he has not won a title since August and reached only 1 final this year, can he defend his title?

If the weather is good and the forecast for the SE is reasonable, then he has a chance as I'm not certain of Novak's fitness or confidence and before we all go overboard let's see what Rafa's like after a spell of constant play away, away from the clay

That leaves Murray, who I think if he has fully recovered starts as favourite. But Andy is notoriously poor at firing out of the gates after a layoff

Fed's biggest problem could be, yet again, his QF - given that he can face The Berd Man, Nadal or Tsonga (although I think the latter will be shot)

I'm not going to rule it out - but if he doesn't win this year then that's his Slam career over, don't see him coping with a firing Novak / Andy at New York

That is a lot of 'if' scenarios! I am losing confidence in his abilities at the moment. When people used to say he should retire etc my line of argument was that unlike some players, Roddick/Hewitt who kept making early exits in most tournaments, Fed still mounts a challenge and is always a contender. With players like Nishikori, to whom I mean no disrespect, being able to get wins over him, he is even more vulnerable to nos 4-10. Even if Murray/Djoko are slightly off their game, there is Nadal!

banbrotam wrote:

FedsFan wrote:The pundits say Wimbledon is his best chance but considering he has not won a title since August and reached only 1 final this year, can he defend his title?

If the weather is good and the forecast for the SE is reasonable, then he has a chance as I'm not certain of Novak's fitness or confidence and before we all go overboard let's see what Rafa's like after a spell of constant play away, away from the clay

That leaves Murray, who I think if he has fully recovered starts as favourite. But Andy is notoriously poor at firing out of the gates after a layoff

Fed's biggest problem could be, yet again, his QF - given that he can face The Berd Man, Nadal or Tsonga (although I think the latter will be shot)

I'm not going to rule it out - but if he doesn't win this year then that's his Slam career over, don't see him coping with a firing Novak / Andy at New York

The biggest challange will be your boy Banbro aka Murray, I am not convinced Djoko is good at grass, Safin was able to beat him comfortably when Djoko made a big mouth of calling himself a favourite for Wimbledon in 2008 .

If Ferrer somehow take Rafa down in the finals that will make him lose his confidence and then Murray should withdraw and Djoko remain upset about his missed oppurtunity and the underdogs remain underdogs then Fed do have a chance

Gerry SA wrote:Federer starts as the favourite for Wimbledon, he's the 7 time champion.

Nadal and Djokovic probably tied 2nd favourites.

Murray's never beaten 2 off 3 best players in a major, so he's not gonna do it at Wimbledon.

I guess Sampras will start as equal favorite then if he decides to turn up. , coz the only criteria for tournament fav is amount of times it was won and not the form a player in? , NO?

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Gerry SA wrote:Federer starts as the favourite for Wimbledon, he's the 7 time champion.

Nadal and Djokovic probably tied 2nd favourites.

Murray's never beaten 2 off 3 best players in a major, so he's not gonna do it at Wimbledon.

I guess Sampras will start as equal favorite then if he decides to turn up. , coz the only criteria for tournament fav is amount of times it was won and not the form a player in? , NO?

Unless you can't read I've put Nadal(form player by all accounts) as a join second favourite with the world number 1.

If you trying to imply Murray's the form player, then I've missed something in the last 2-3 months.

As for Federer, and his form...or lack of it, he's the best grass court player of all time. So whatever his form, he knows how to win Wimbledon.

Good post.

Truth be told, I thought even the first point is a little beyond what I see from Federer now. Not the winning shot but the speed of movement in the preceding shots.

The second point was actually somewhat surprising to see. It's easy to forget how quick he was... And I had! The speed into the forehand pass was amazing.

I think this is also a good video for those who moan about Rafa and Novak's retrieving. It's a reminder that Federer was pretty darn hot in that department too!

Yep, he was...Rome 2006 showed that in abundance...his finest hour on clay IMO even though he lost. It was the French Open final they never had.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K0S3wyLncA

Look at the best of movement of both guys...I don't believe Nadal is this fast anymore either, his feet were a blur at times.
But in the 2nd point above at 40-30, 6-5...watch Federer's movement between shots, the fluid split steps with perfect timing before moving to the stroke. It's actually breath-taking to see and you miss it if you don't know what you're looking for, it's like he used to float above the ground almost. Also, look at Federer's physique, much bigger and more powerful back then.

Federer was in his day one of the fastest players on tour and he could turn defense into offense from wide positions extremely well. I don't think anyone questions that Federer is some percent off of his very best. There maybe some who over sell how much he has lost. In some areas like his backhand I think he is actually better. But overall he has lost quite a bit of athletic ability.

He had a good spell for sure if its now ended...winning slams from 03 to 12. That's 9 years in breadth (10 seasons). Sampras went 90 to 02. Nadal started in 05...can he go to 2014 or beyond winning slams? Who knows.

Going back to the OP question. Yes, Federer is slower no doubt but as I outlined the other day a lot of it is his own fault due to him not training at the level needed anymore to be a top class athlete. Looking at him you can see he stopped putting the hard gym work in some time ago...and it's starting to catch up with him.

His back muscles will have got weaker, so more back trouble on serve due to less support. His back trouble seems to have started since Falla 2009...around the time I think he started taking his foot off the gym pedal. His arms, shoulders and chest are smaller, his core weaker too so he shanks more due to loss of rotational power and being slightly later on shots. How can he be expected to be as quick when he's not putting the hard yards in? He's looks great against Ferrer in the video but look at who is in the French Open final today at a similar age...Ferrer is still putting the hard work in. If Federer wants to really make a push in the slams why isn't he putting more physical effort in training? Sorry I don't have too much nostalgic sympathy when the decline is somewhat self warranted.

It's possible that the back injury has prevented him from putting in the necessary gym work.

What for 4 years? Isnt that just an easy answer to make? Every sports athlete doesn't avoid a muscle group once they have an injury...they recover from the injury then rebuild the muscles around it to support it and reduce risk of recurrence. If Haas can come back from multiple surgeries to be in the fantastic shape he's now in then Roger can work out more too. If he wanted to. I'm sure he's doing some gym work...but I don't think it's been enough to support the top class athletic stress he wants to continue to put his body through. I think he's relying on his prodigious talent too much.

JuliusHMarx wrote:It's possible that the back injury has prevented him from putting in the necessary gym work.

Good point. I feel Federer needs to put more work in at the gym and try and get the ripped physique that Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and even old timers like Haas have. People say Federer never gets injured but this is clearly not true. His back has bothered him at times for the last 4 years I believe.

Exactly my point. Whether its chicken or egg if he had to desire to put the gym work in he would. He's not stupid, he can see how physical the tour has become but it seems he's not meeting the challenge at all...yes look at 35 yo Haas in comparison. What does this tell us about Federer's motivation physically?

To my understanding Lydian and I could be wrong some athletes do put in a lot of gym work but find it extremely difficult to get that 'ripped' physique due to some biological reason. Federer could be one of those if indeed I am correct in my speculation. I get a niggling feeling that he is not putting as much gym work in as he should do but then again that is not based on any evidence.

If only Fed's career hadn't been cruelly cut short by poor motivation - think what he might have achieved

A serious psychological point though - is our mind really under our control any more than our bodies? Should we be able to create motivation where none exists?

Incrediblexman wrote:To my understanding Lydian and I could be wrong some athletes do put in a lot of gym work but find it extremely difficult to get that 'ripped' physique due to some biological reason. Federer could be one of those if indeed I am correct in my speculation. I get a niggling feeling that he is not putting as much gym work in as he should do but then again that is not based on any evidence.

There's no doubt that some people have more physical potential than others. There's no way the top 4 could all have equal potential - I've no idea who has more though.

In my mind the top physical specimens on the tour are Djokovic and Nadal. They have taken the game to a new dimension athletically speaking. The evidence being the numerous epic finals they contested during 2011 and the first half of 2012 before Nadal's injury. Federer is clearly lagging behind in that department and needs good form, a measure of luck, Nadal's absence and a fast surface to win (see semi-finals and finals of Wimbledon 2012, Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2012 and Madrid 2012).

Yes but we're talking about a guy who had the physicality needed before, all he had to do was maintain it but he hasn't. Those photos I posted the other day of Federer in 03, 08 and 13 showed a marked difference in his physique. He had the motivation before to do it...but seemingly not anymore. If he wants to decline into retirement then fair enough, he's done we'll enough, but if he truly wants to compete for slams into the future then I just don't think he's muscly enough to do it with final/win success.

Can you give me the link to those photos Lydian?

I would add Murray and Ferrer to that physical pack. Ferrer is also a specimen for 31 years old. Then of course we have Haas who is in tremendous shape. Federer shirtless just looks slim, nothing more. He doesn't even look particularly toned, never mind muscular or ripped. Besides, the ripped look can just come from having low body fat.

Anyway, I've made my point. A lot of Federer's speed and athletic decline in my opinion is not innate age related but his lack of motivation in keeping up, or even nearly keeping up, with the physicality of the times.

I'm trying to find those photos without success! It was probably. Hundred posts ago or something and I can't remember which thread I put them on...I'll keep looking.

Fed may have had the physicality before, but only to match the level of physicality at the time (2003-2007, say) . It's moved on since then.

a) The mileage takes it's toll physically as well as mentally
b) Rafa and, more likely, Murray and Djoko, may have in the past 3 or 4 years taken it to a level he cannot reach no matter how hard he tries. That knowledge in itself can be de-motivating.

Incrediblexman wrote:Can you give me the link to those photos Lydian?

You'd be better off heading to the Sharapova's Legs thread

JuliusHMarx wrote:Fed may have had the physicality before, but only to match the level of physicality at the time (2003-2007, say) . It's moved on since then.

a) The mileage takes it's toll physically as well as mentally
b) Rafa and, more likely, Murray and Djoko, may have in the past 3 or 4 years taken it to a level he cannot reach no matter how hard he tries. That knowledge in itself can be de-motivating.

Your b) point was exactly what I was thinking JuliusHMarx. Federer may have been left behind.

Perhaps but he was never a lover of hard physical work in the first place. Anyway, here's the post I wrote the other day on https://www.606v2.com/t44803p100-thoughts-on-mens-quarters#2101340

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I think he's been putting in a lot less gym work for a while now and its taking its toll. Like silver I believe he thinks talent is enough but it isn't in this era. Maybe having the mono stopped his training routine and he simply got out of the habit but if Haas can do it then why not Federer! The guy isn't particularly injured so all those miles haven't taken too much of a toll on him and he hasnt got masses of competition outside 4-5 players.

Maybe the RG loss might push him into the gym...I hope so because compare these images of Federer over the years I've just put together:


His neck is now narrower, traps on his shoulders are smaller, more bodyfat, delts on his shoulders are smaller, pecs much less defined/smaller and stomach area just doesn't look as strong.

In contrast, at 35 years old look at this pic of Haas:


Wow...that's some physique and the contrast with Federer is clear to see.

Thanks lydian. Could Federer be somewhat of a 'lazy' champion. I'll qualify that by saying that maybe has relied more on his natural talent than the grind of constant training regimes? Or is it just that age has caught up with him?

Probably a bit of all that I suspect. I think he is relying too much on his talent now to see him through and against most guys that still works. But not against the power guys anymore where he needs to up the juice.

He worked hard on his fitness and physique from 2000-2006 for sure, maintained it for a couple more years, then seems to have let it go physically in recent years. He never liked the gym and had to employ Paganini to drag him through sessions with different variety to keep him sticking at it. I presume he just doesn't push hard with Paganini/other anymore...age and family may have mellowed his desire to improve that area. But it may be literally hurting him to back off on the hard work given his back is more exposed, his core weaker and explosive movement slower.

Federer is partnering Haas and playing doubles @Halle.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/06/23/Halle-Federer-Haas-Teaming-Up-For-First-Time.aspx

Hope to see Fedal play doubles together sometime in the future, and it would be .

It is clear from looking at him on court he is less muscular and as pointed out he seems to have a bit of a gut now!

Before you guys give Federer too much of a hard time wrt his physical shape and declining taste for gym work (even if perhaps partly justified comment) in comparison with the likes of Haas and Ferrer : don't forget that they have both played more than 300 fewer tour matches than Fed. Let's see just how motivated they are when they have matched his mileage and court time ...... not to mention a couple of little additions to the household.

Absolutely lags. We're not talking about a guy emerging on tour or 300 matches less.
However, the OP is discussing how Federer's movement used to be a lot better.
I agree...but don't think it's just down to age / wear & tear.
For me Fed's motivation has been on the wane for a while and now its showing more and more.

I've said more than once that IMO this will be his last full year on tour, although if he manages to have a very solid finish to the season, then perhaps 2014 will be the swan song. I could be totally wrong of course !

He is still doing stuff that would be enough to delight 95% of the rest of the ATP field ; but for many many years now he has not been a part of that 95% - such has been his mercurial standard.

The end of his QF Slam run will surely come soon, and prove to be something of a watershed.

I think the crucial deference for Lord Federer is that he just can't maintain his highest standard of tennis play for match after match anymore throughout a Grand Slam tournament fortnight, and that is mainly due to age (takes longer as get older to recover from physical and mental exertions from a match) and perhaps a lack of motivation.

McEnroe circa 1992 v McEnroe circa 1984.

Age and Time catch up (unless one lives in the Nexus - just ask Malcolm McDowell), so enjoy as much you can whether it is Federer or Nadal or Djokovic or Murray.

I do see the point you are making lydian and I wonder if this links in with his response to a journalist's question about Nadal's absence from the tour for seven months and how fantastic it was that he had come back so strongly, to which Federer said something like 'we could all do with that'

I don't doubt now that Nadal had serious issues with knees, but I think he was a little 'burned out' too, and in fact in 2011 had made a few comments about motivation, or lack thereof. I think his break allowed him to heal physically and therefore also to come back recharged mentally. Perhaps Federer could have done with the same in terms of finding the hunger to fully recommit to a punishing fitness regime, or maybe his life is now very different.

I think the one difference that has allowed Rafa to come back as strongly, despite missing much match play, is his natural physical superiority strength wise however, and I don't know that the same prescription would be as beneficial for Fed.

Think (sadly) that there will be no more heights at the majors for Fed now - his chasing pack of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are just consistently better and stronger than him at present - it was wonderful while it lasted

I think we hear a lot about everyones injuries and a lot about how Federer is never injured.

I think the latter is grossly overdone. I suspect when the book comes out we'll find out that Federer has been as messed up by injury as anyone, in particular the back. He had trouble as a young man, I recall it adding to his 2008 woes and I was there at Wimbledon in 2010 when it brought him low. Quite how he got through W '13 when it was obviously killing him in the first week is beyond me.

I suspect he's now working within the capacity of his body to sustain strain, and that might well include the kind of brutal training regime he used to be known for. I may be much more complex than motivation, it might well be that for a while there's only been so much he can handle.

Food for thought to those claiming other players more public injuries have stopped them exceeding their own accomplishments.

BB, when it is first documented that Federer had issues with his back?

I'm not aware of it being an issue before he pulled out of Paris Masters in Nov. 2008.

But all the matches he played in RG this week, Eurosport commentators Wilander/Mercer/Some Lady, were saying that Fed's shoulders look wider and his rib cage a little fuller, or maybe it was the double t-shirt/tight one.

Federer said of the 2008 pullout..."That was as extreme, I think, as it gets. Ever since [2008] I have been doing a lot of back exercises, making sure I try everything I can to make sure it strengthened and less vulnerable to go bad. I have even had a bad back, sometimes when I was younger just because I wasn’t strong enough yet. I think every player can talk about having had a bad back. I think almost every person has. So for me, it’s been actually pretty good overall if I think about it. And if it hurts me for an evening or one-and-a-half days or something and I can still play with the pain, that’s okay. I hurt it in Wimbledon against [Xavier] Malisse and came out firing against Youzhny the next round. So for me I just got to deal with it.”

This harks back to what we have agreed on BB. The mono thing (mild) in 2008 stopped him training through Feb/March as usual. That may have weakened his back/core - or rather he didn't sustain the musculature he had developed to that point. All athletes know muscle tone can be lost as quickly as 3-4 weeks. Over the course of the year he didn't catch up on the back support exercises but kept serving the same as ever - infact he may have upped the gas on it to compete with the surge of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray during 2008. The increased strain on the back and weaker tone may have then led to too much stress and the Paris pull-out.

The 2008 mono and back issue probably knocked him out of his training routines period from 2009 onwards. He never liked doing gym exercises and once out of the habit I don't think he's returned to the gym anywhere near quite as much since 2009. Probably just does routine work to keep the back supported and general tone/fitness I suspect without returning to his former mass and low bodyfat.

Jahu, maybe that's simply getting bigger due to increased bodyfat?
(would only take 5% more to be noticeable)

Do you have any pics from last year Lydian? Id say Fed lost some motivation in 2009 - he was poor (by his standards) for most of that year and I remember thinking at the time he looked a bit out of shape. However, i dont see it as a steady decline since. He got himself back in superb shape certainly at the end of 2011 and sustained that during 2012. He's slackened off again now but how much of that is back related we simply don't know.

You have to think Federer's got 3 choices to make about his career:

He can take a step back and think "You know what, I've had enough and I don't want to do this any more" leading to retirement.

He can carry on as he is doing now; good enough to beat most players and consistently reach QFs and SFs but fall at the last hurdles because his rivals are better than him.

He can go and do some serious training, get back into shape and then go all out for one last hurrah.

I know most of us would like to see the latter option but how much motivation does he have left after 17 majors and 20 odd Masters? I don't think it's a coincidence that his results haven't been great since the Olympic final (WTF performance aside). That was his chance to win a gold medal and although people might ridicule it, I bet he seriously wanted that medal as it was on his favourite surface on his favourite court 3 weeks after he'd won another tournament there. I wouldn't be surprised if he retired at the end of this year because when I saw him waving to the RG crowd, it was reminiscent of Roddick last year at Wimbledon.

TSJ, I think he already did the 'go all out for one last hurrah' bit, culminating in the Wimby victory.

BS...this is a pic from 2012 RG.


Not in bad shape at all, of course, but you can tell there is probably 5-10% more bodyfat than he used to have. His pecs aren't particularly defined, even slightly hanging at the bottom with bodyfat if I'm picky. His arms and shoulders for me are smaller than they once were - esp. traps & delts. Its just not really a top class athletic body by today's tennis standards and in that photo he's still 30 years old, we're not talking old man. I suspect he mainly does Lat-work and lower back stuff to keep his back supported but nothing rigorous elsewhere.