Wimbledon - Crystal Ball Time

I have to say I am rather looking forward to it.

Who will the grass gods favour for 2013? Well I think it is interesting.

Nadal. His last visit should be one his supporters would like to forget and one his detractors do not stop mentioning. Given his recent run of form I see a player who could actually win it. Ever since his comeback many have predicted a decline. Without question he is a step slower. Even on the Clay many of his opponents were able to find winners except Nishikori and Ferrer who just were a bad match up. He won Indian Wells. Lost in Monte Carlo, but won Madrid and Rome and then topped it off winning his 8th French Open crown. I believe Nadal hits harder now on the FH especially because of the overwhelming weakness on his BH due to his knees. I think like Federer he needs a good draw. Players like Del Potro, Berdych and even Tsonga become a greater threat because of the contrast in surface. He isn't playing Halle and maybe lack of practice could count against him. Also will he begin to tire after having played so much Clay tennis this year?

Defending champion and 7 time winner Federer. Downed by Murray at the AO and Tsonga at the FO. It is a question now of how fit is he. 32 this year and you have to wonder how much his Slam hopes rest on his physical prowess much rather than a favourable draw. Could this be his last year to win a Slam? Last year the back was hurting and he was facing defeat against Benneteau and he summoned every effort and genius to come back and win the tournament. Does he have that type of inspiration left in his tank? He will hope that the British Summer becomes a wash out so he can take advantage of the roof. I am sure he will be doing rain dances leading up to the event.

Novak Djokovic. World No.1. LAst year he won Miami and had to wait 5 months to taste another tournament win. He suffered a very bitter defeat to Rafael Nadal. The weather gods intervened just as he was ready to drop the hammer on Nadal. Oddly enough his performances were below par, but he was winning. At Wimbledon the wheels slipped off even more. He was defeated by Federer. He picked up again in Toronto and on the eve of the US Open was dismantled by Federer again. However this year has seen Djokovic become the aggressor. Who could forget the AO where he outlasted Wawrinka and then destroyed Ferrer in straight sets? He went on and downed Murray despite dropping the first set. He went to IW and Miami where he was defeated by Del Potro and Haas respectively. He then went to Monte Carlo and de-throned the king. He then came agonisingly close to beating Nadal again at RG to fall short again. Up and down like last year a bit. I think however he is made of sterner stuff and will look to win another Wimbledon title. If the mindset is right and conditions heavy, we could see the Serb strike back.

Great Britain. Always a tormentous time to be British. Murray fresh off the back of lay off from Roland Garros. Has been practicing on the grass since last week. Is he due to win his 2nd Slam at Wimbledon? 3 semi's back to back and runner up last year. He broke his Slam duck at New York last year. However, this year has been up and down. Out-grinded by Djokovic in Australia but then outlasted Ferrer in a painstaking gruelling match in Miami. Clay was a miss for him. You have to wonder with the results he has grinded out since Wimbledon last year if that brand of tennis is enough to win the Wimbledon title on top of the expectation of the tennis public. He must show more aggression if he is to end the Wimbledon hoodoo.

It will be a cracker.

Who is your money on?

Great article LK, and I'm looking forward too it too.

One thing I hope is that all of the top 4 players can stay fit, then if Tsonga and Berdych can raise their games we could have a cracking second week.

I really see good reasons for and against each of the big 4. In my opinion wimbeldon is the tournament that gives them all about an equal chance of success. Nadal looks on fire and in my mind is the number 1 favorite. But I can see him losing to a murray or Djokovic at this tournament and possibly a couple of others. Other than that I see it being pretty even between the big 4. And I can't see anyone other than one of these 4 lifting the trophy.

Very confident about Murray. Worryingly it's the most confident I've ever felt

Not certain which results LK is thinking that he "grinded out" since Wimby last year - what an Olympics a US Open a good showing at the O2 a first slam defeat of Federer and an honourable defeat to Novak. Oh and another Masters As usual he's measured by the ridiculous heights of the others, rather than the fact that his record in the last year is pretty impressive

I simply think he'll be the freshest as it could be the first time in a whole that he's more or less pain free

Forecast is reasonable for the SE, which for me favours the two who fought out last years two final, but there has to be a question mark against Fed

While I would love to think TMF had a chance, I'm much too much of a realist to entertain hope. I do, however, like you banbro have a sneaking feeling/hope that Murray could do this. I think I have him as favourite over TMF and Novak, should he meet either/both of them.

Nadal obviously has the second best grass court pedigree to Federer and is the player of the last couple of months - he has to be the biggest threat imo.

At present, I'd say
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic
4) Federer

But only a slither between each.

I'll probably feel differently after week 1!

I might feel different after this week, if there is another early Murray exit

Murray should start heavy favorite, not sure what state physically and mentally Fed is to comment on his favourite status, most probably will be the biggest causality in the earlier rounds.

Djoko if he gets a nice draw avoiding Murray , Fed and some good grass court players like Haas, could count his chances, he would rather prefer a Rafa in his draw than Murray in his draw which exactly he gonna get, so thats good news for Nole fans.

Rafa had a great run in FO and rightly taking time off to rest his knees and be ready in time for the mega event, he is certainly a very strong contender indeed 2nd favourite behind Murray or joint favourite with him.

The order of favourites will be

1]Murray
2]Rafa
3]Djokovic
4]Federer [ considering his form]
5]Tommy Haas
6]David Ferrer
7]Del Potro
8]Tsonga
9]Berdych
10]Raonic

Dark horses for a deep run

Jack Sock
Youzhny
Robredo
John Isner
Marian Cilic
Hewitt

For me the favourite list goes (barring injury):

1/ Djokovic (like in 2011 after he lost semis of the FO but won Wimby)
2/ Murray (finalist last year- has home support, fresh too)
3/ Federer (not in great form, but 7 time champion)
4/ Tsonga (he's my dark horse actually- he's playing well, and will not have that much pressure on him unlike in the French SF. He loves grass too).
5/ Nadal (Rafa's in decent form but hasn't played on grass for nearly a year now, and also lost early in his last two grass tournaments).
6/ Berdych (Reached final in 2010- certainly has a decent game for grass).

I think we could have a Djokovic Murray final, with Djokovic winning in 4 sets.

banbrotam wrote:I might feel different after this week, if there is another early Murray exit

There might be an early Murray exit in Queens like last year but that would not hinder his prospects for Wimbledon, Murray might just participate in Queens and lose earlier for more rest.

Red wrote:For me the favourite list goes (barring injury):

1/ Djokovic (like in 2011 after he lost semis of the FO but won Wimby)
2/ Murray (finalist last year- has home support, fresh too)
3/ Federer (not in great form, but 7 time champion)
4/ Tsonga (he's my dark horse actually- he's playing well, and will not have that much pressure on him unlike in the French SF. He loves grass too).
5/ Nadal (Rafa's in decent form but hasn't played on grass for nearly a year now, and also lost early in his last two grass tournaments).
6/ Berdych (Reached final in 2010- certainly has a decent game for grass).

I think we could have a Djokovic Murray final, with Djokovic winning in 4 sets.

Come on Amrit don't bore us with fake things always, we all know Rafa is a very good slow grass court player and outside Murray he is the real favorite.

Maybe those penciling in Murray as favorite for Wimbledon should read the award winning journalist Simon Barnes view on being swayed by over optimistic thoughts on Murray's chances.

Perhaps all those sneaking little patriotic hopes for Murray obscured British thinking about Nadal. Roger’s ageing and fading (well, he only won Wimbledon last year, pretty poor haul, eh?) and Rafa’s knees have gone. So he’s just got to beat Djokovic (admittedly like just climbing Everest) and he’s home, no? And that’s exactly what Murray did in New York last autumn and glorious it was too. We’d mentally cleared Nadal out of the way, for Murray’s sake.

Sorry no link as Simon Barnes works for The Times and its PPV (but well worth it...)

hawkeye wrote:Maybe those penciling in Murray as favorite for Wimbledon should read the award winning journalist Simon Barnes view on being swayed by over optimistic thoughts on Murray's chances.

Perhaps all those sneaking little patriotic hopes for Murray obscured British thinking about Nadal. Roger’s ageing and fading (well, he only won Wimbledon last year, pretty poor haul, eh?) and Rafa’s knees have gone. So he’s just got to beat Djokovic (admittedly like just climbing Everest) and he’s home, no? And that’s exactly what Murray did in New York last autumn and glorious it was too. We’d mentally cleared Nadal out of the way, for Murray’s sake.

Sorry no link as Simon Barnes works for The Times and its PPV (but well worth it...)

I don't know what he means.

There you go HE - you can just copy and past :
The Times - Simon Barnes
[i]Ah yes, this was the fellow we wrote off, right? He’d never play again, not at the same level. Body’s gone, both knees shattered. Well, what do you expect? The way he throws himself around that tennis court, it’s a miracle he has achieved what he has and we were lucky to have him while we did.

But Rafael is back like an avenging archangel. Rafael Nadal has won the French Open for the eighth time — should I say that again? The eighth time in nine years. Nobody does that. Nobody could ever do that. It wasn’t possible back in the more gentlemanly days when there was less at stake, and it is certainly not possible in this modern era of almost surreal talent.

Nobody could do that, let alone a man who has missed so much tennis with so much trouble in the most dodgy of joints. Yet Nadal has done it, coming through a cataclysmic semi-final against Novak Djokovic, the world No 1, and doing all that was necessary yesterday to get past David Ferrer, another Spaniard. Nadal won an inevitably one-sided match 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.

There was a point in the third game when Ferrer played a sure-fire cross-court winner. Nadal not only reached it, he blocked it back into play for a wrong-footing winner. It was a moment of utter dismay for Ferrer. It’s not just that your best stuff is not good enough to win; it’s that your best stuff only gives your opponent an opportunity for his best stuff. When your opponent is hitting winners off your winners, you’re not looking at a fourth set.

But hold on a moment. Ferrer is ranked fourth in the world, fourth to Nadal’s fifth. Ferrer is a damn good player and he played pretty damn well yesterday. He certainly did not fold or flinch or blink. He played some terrific stuff, showed class and cojones and intelligence and accuracy and power. Ferrer beat JoWilfried Tsonga, conqueror of Roger Federer, in the semis and he did the job soundly. This should have been a seriously close-run thing. And yet there was a chasm between the players out there yesterday.

But it’s not about Ferrer not being good enough; it’s about how exceptionally good Nadal is. Especially Nadal here in Paris: no one has ever dominated a grand-slam event like Nadal, no man has made a tournament this close to a personal hegemony. Pete Sampras and Roger Federer each have seven Wimbledons, but, in both numbers and in the sense of ownership, Nadal has gone past even these achievements.

Ferrer’s excellence also goes to show how good the leading players in men’s tennis really are. They have become the Fab Four: with Federer and Nadal as John and Paul, Djokovic as George desperate to get more songs on the next album — and Andy Murray as Ringo, as ever the fourth among equals, but at least now with a grand-slam title to his name and serious hopes of adding to it.

Perhaps all those sneaking little patriotic hopes for Murray obscured British thinking about Nadal. Roger’s ageing and fading (well, he only won Wimbledon last year, pretty poor haul, eh?) and Rafa’s knees have gone. So he’s just got to beat Djokovic (admittedly like just climbing Everest) and he’s home, no? And that’s exactly what Murray did in New York last autumn and glorious it was too. We’d mentally cleared Nadal out of the way, for Murray’s sake.

But Rafa’s back and blazing. Yesterday, he was more than adequate on a slightly subfusc occasion; these days you need two of the Fab Four to make it a proper final. And that semi against Djokovic was something to treasure. Some of the play was staggering: you felt that at times the players themselves were a trifle in awe of the sport they produced. Time and again, it was that Nadal defence that did the business. Time and again, the number one shots from the world’s No 1 player came whistling back at him in a series of apparently endless rallies that sometimes manoeuvred Djokovic into error and sometimes opened him up for that signature Rafa move when the attacker suddenly finds himself besieged and then overwhelmed.

Yesterday’s win brings Nadal up to 12 grand-slam singles titles: great in any era. Press “Save” on the obituaries; we don’t need them just now, thanks. The appetite and the game are both as good as ever and, as for the knees, they did a sterling job of keeping his shins from his thighs and they supported him loyally as he dashed from side to side to side to side of the back-court with his eternal border-collie compulsiveness.

That compulsion to chase is perhaps the deepest part of Nadal’s on-court nature, and the best part of it all is that his knees have allowed him to be himself again. The madcap chaser is back. No tennis ball in the world is safe; no opponent, either. That urge to chase a ball and fling yourself at it is, even in the midst of the most desperate struggle for the mastery, an expression of pure joy — joy in youth and speed and strength and co-ordination.

How strange and dreadful it must have felt for Nadal not to be able to do that. But now he is back doing it again — at this of all places — and the joy of it all is there for us all. It hits an audience like a glass of champagne on an empty stomach.

A great Rafa occasion goes straight to the pleasure centres: nothing but joy and victory and an eternity of bouncing about happily in a guilt-free world. Life really should be like that. As for Rafa, he is not only victorious, he is bouncing along on a pair of sound knees — and long may they last him — towards the London suburb of SW19. Don’t miss it.

• Andy Murray involved himself in the debate over the LTA’s chief executive position, for which the first round of interviews takes place this week, with a controversial tweet yesterday. “Love coming back to queens one of the best run tournaments of the year along with world tour finals, chris kermode tourny director of both does great job. Possible lta ceo? Knows the business and loves the game… probably won’t get a look in,” he said.

Nadal’s route to record in Paris

Rafael Nadal played in five grand-slam tournaments, but none at Roland Garros, before he won his first French Open in 2005, beating Mariano Puerta 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 7-5

The next year he won the first of four finals against Roger Federer, beating the Swiss 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6, having overcome Ivan Ljubicic in the semi-final

Nadal did not drop a set on his way to the 2007 final, where Federer, the No 1 seed, was dispatched in four sets, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4

In their third meeting, in 2008, Federer won only four games. Novak Djokovic, in the semi-final, was the only player even to take Nadal to a tie-break

Robin Soderling beat Nadal in the fourth round in 2009 but the Spaniard beat the Swede 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in the 2010 final

John Isner took Nadal to five sets in the first round in 2011, but he won the next five matches in straight sets before again beating Federer in four

The 2012 final had to be postponed for a day because of rain before Nadal beat Djokovic in four sets for his seventh title

Words by Patrick Kidd[/i]


When you read this, it does seem impossible to look beyond him atm!

Thank you TP All I can say is bring back Neil Harman.

I like the Beatles analogy in that article!

I'd caveat it by saying that this is probably Abbey Road era Beatles when George was finally producing top level material.

Funny also how that Rafa-Novak SF seems to be approaching classic status. I spent about 3 of the 4.5 hours thinking it was pretty poor!

You're welcome

Perhaps it is better if all our expectations/hopes tempered before W? Barnes has certainly done that, hasn't he? Not sure it will dampen the enthusiasm and speculation of the BBC though!

He's killed what hope I had that's for sure.

I don't think Murray's bothered by the hype these days, but perhaps the other Brits are (Robson et al).

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Haas

lydian wrote:1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Haas

I would LOVE Haas to win!

I'd be torn in a Nole v Tommy final.

I'll start with the bookies opinion then give my own.

Bookies

1 Djokovic (1 in 3 chance of winning)
2 Rafa (1 in 4)
3 Murray (1 in 5)
4 Federer (1 in 7)
5 Tsonga (1 in 15)
Then it's Berdych and Del Potro (1 in 50).

Of those odds, I'd rate Murray, Berdych and Del Potro at the best value and Djokovic and Tsonga as the worst.

As for my own, I think this is really open but I'll make a prediction. (Boldened by my good predictions of Ferrer to beat Tsonga and Rafa to beat Djokovic in 5 after Djokovic wins the 4th set TB.)

I predict Murray to win the title. If he plays Rafa I am worried, but I am still sticking with Murray. After what he did at the Olympics on the same court, it's his time now. Last year's final defeat was also the stepping stone to this year's win.

Actually, I think I'll wait to see the draw before adding any detail to my prediction, e.g. saying how I think the others will do.

Henman Bill wrote:I'll start with the bookies opinion then give my own.

Bookies

1 Djokovic (1 in 3 chance of winning)
2 Rafa (1 in 4)
3 Murray (1 in 5)
4 Federer (1 in 7)
5 Tsonga (1 in 15)
Then it's Berdych and Del Potro (1 in 50).

Of those odds, I'd rate Murray, Berdych and Del Potro at the best value and Djokovic and Tsonga as the worst.

I agree with you, I would certainly take Murray and Del Potro more serious.

I see the favourites in this order:

1 - Rafa
2 - Murray & Novak
4 - Federer
5 - James Ward

Can't see anyone outside of that lot winning it.
My money is on James Ward.

What's all this Tommy Haas bandwagoning. I predict a first week exit.

Actually oddschecker is messing me about here. It says Del Potro 50/1 and Raonic at an exciting 150/1 on Betfair, but when I go to Betfair it is 28/1 and 66/1 respectively.

time please. I was always a bit scared that if I cut and pasted a whole PPV article Simon Barnes (or rather his boss) might come round and shout at me. You are very brave...

As for the odds at Wimbledon. Murray always has inflated odds because of the amount of Wimbledon only tennis pundits and Scottish grannies that put bets on him. I thought he had a chronic back problem that made him pull out of a major just a few weeks ago. You would think that would be reflected in the odds. The way the media talks about it you would think his back injury was a benefit... What did Simon Barnes say about patriotic optimism?

HE - he was runner up last year, and beat Novak and Roger to win the Olympics weeks later on the same court. He is also world no.2 and has reached the final of the last 3 slams he's been in. In that respect, he is justifiably a favourite.

You are right that his injury lay off puts a question mark against him though. Blessing or curse... We will know a bit more this week, but ultimately at SW19. I always think he's ripe for a shock after a long lay off so we'll have to see.

Of course, the draw will play a huge part. He could face a run of QF Rafa, SF Federer, F Novak. He might only face one of them in the final if he's lucky. He was my favourite a month or two ago, but his form and fitness have made me switch to Rafa as favourite.

Here's a thought. With Rafa being 5, he could have Roger in the quarter final, is that right? At what point would you have to start queing outside to get a ticket for that? Maybe 9am the day before?

It's very draw-dependent due to Nadal likely to be seeded at #5. However, draw aside, I'd say the slim favourite is Murray, then Nadal, Djokovic and Federer in that order. Grass definitely balances the playing field by negating Djokovic and bolstering Federer, so any one of them could do it.

I also think that this is the best opportunity for a new slam winner. With Nadal rusty, Federer off form, and Novak iffy on grass, who knows? I'd suggest that Murray is guaranteed to make the SF given his record, and provided he avoids Nadal I think he'll take the title.

Henman Bill wrote:What's all this Tommy Haas bandwagoning. I predict a first week exit.

Bandwagoning? I'm saying he'll come around 5th which means reach quarters, possibly semis.
Don't forget this is the guy who just reached the quarters at RG on his worst surface.
I don't see QF/SF (draw permitting) on grass - he's defending Halle champ - as outrageous.
The guy is near top 10!

PS. I flew into Basel airport earlier this evening, didn't see "Rodge" given he's in Halle...I leave on Weds, if I see him then then Halle didn't go well at all!

"Henman Bill" hits the bull's eye - wait for the draw!

Talents, prior history, recent events - the first thing is to see that draw! All these people saying Nadal is 5 - guess they've seen the preview already, not sure it'll "go down" like that at all.

It's not that Ferrer doesn't deserve the No 4 seeding but it may well not fall that way. The Seeding Committee will make that decision in about 10 days time. ONCE the seedings are announced AND the draw is made, there will be time for speculation. Till then, all are pipe dreams. Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro, Roanic, Janowicz, Haas....etc., all could feature, regardless of what seed they are, and in which place are drawn the "regular" Goliaths! Exciting to see how it will pan out with the draw.

There is no seeding committee. Wimbledon apply a formula and on the basis of that formula Nadal will be 5th seed. No need to have seen any preview.

Murray is going to fall in QF people, he's hurt and can't be in top form as last year, no matter how much I want him to win his home GS.

If Fed can get past QF, he will surely go to Final, these GS QF are a mental barrier to him.

Djoko will fall in QF/SF, together with Nadal, so we will have a Final with 1 players out of top 4.

Why is it I can see murray winning 5 sets against djokovic and Federer, but in no way can picture him beating Nadal over five sets at wimbeldon? I think if Murray gets matched up with Nadal it is over, while he could beat either Fed or Djoko more easily at this particular tournament.

For me I want Djoko to have another crack at Nadal as soon as possible on a faster surface that will help him get more free points against Nadal.

I am a bit puzzled why people rate Andy so high. Obviously he has a chance but what exactly is the argument to make him the #1 favorite? His Wimbledon record is the worst of the top 4 - miles worse than Fed's, much worse than Rafa's and marginally worse - but still worse - than Nole's.

I would tend to agree that Rafa and Nole are nowhere near as good on grass as they are on clay (in spite of Nole's one Wimbledon title), and obviously Andy is much better on grass than on clay. Yet, in spite of that, even on grass he is quite possibly weaker than the other two.

To me, Andy is definitely in the running and he can win it all, but I would have him as the #3 favorite. To me, the favorites are roughly:

1/2: Nole/Rafa neck-and-neck
3: Andy
4: Federer

And Federer is below Andy only because Fed seems to be playing quite poorly now. If he somehow recovers decent form, he would go ahead of Andy too.

socal1976 wrote:Why is it I can see murray winning 5 sets against djokovic and Federer, but in no way can picture him beating Nadal over five sets at wimbeldon? I think if Murray gets matched up with Nadal it is over, while he could beat either Fed or Djoko more easily at this particular tournament.

For me I want Djoko to have another crack at Nadal as soon as possible on a faster surface that will help him get more free points against Nadal.

Totally agree.

I think Andy has too much respect for Rafa.

Rafa
Novak
Murray
Federer

If Federer can recover his form (unlikely) he would go second on that list.

However I add a caveat - I think Federer is most likely to lose early because of his poor form but Rafa would otherwise be the candidate to lose early ie. in the first week.

And so the posturing starts......

Here goes with my honest assessment.

If we were to turn the clock back a year or two the hot favourite would be Roger Federer such is his standing as surely the greatest grass-courter of all-time. However, Roger, for the first time in his career, now faces an opponent he cannot beat...old father time.I see a quarter or semi-final exit for Roger.

The world No.1 Novak Djokovic is going through a sticky spell (by his recent high standards) and his grass court form is a little more patchy than his clay and hard court showings. However, he has proven he can win Wimbledon but is he in the right place mentally to recapture his form and the title? I have my doubts. I forecast either a semi or final defeat.

Andy Murray, although some will argue, does have a good grass court pedigree and was the form player on the surface last year. He lost in the final to Federer and won Olympic gold at Wimbledon and before that had reached the last three semis at Wimbledon and bagged the Queen's Club title. How is his fitness though and can he crack the enigma code and find a way to beat Rafa should they meet - that should be intriguing to find out. I fear another final loss but hope I am wrong.

Rafael Nadal is back and we know he has the game to win on grass. The only doubt in my mind is that his red hot showings on grass were from more than two years ago. Does he still have what it takes to win on grass? I will say yes and tip him to beat Murray in the final.

emancipator wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Why is it I can see murray winning 5 sets against djokovic and Federer, but in no way can picture him beating Nadal over five sets at wimbeldon? I think if Murray gets matched up with Nadal it is over, while he could beat either Fed or Djoko more easily at this particular tournament.

For me I want Djoko to have another crack at Nadal as soon as possible on a faster surface that will help him get more free points against Nadal.

Totally agree.

I think Andy has too much respect for Rafa.

Rafa
Novak
Murray
Federer

If Federer can recover his form (unlikely) he would go second on that list.

However I add a caveat - I think Federer is most likely to lose early because of his poor form but Rafa would otherwise be the candidate to lose early ie. in the first week.

Hasn't Rafa only won one of his last twelve events away from the dirt?

It's people on these boards who have two much respect for Rafa (and seem to think it's 2008 or 2010) they then mistakingly export their feeling that Nadal is some kind of colossus and assume that the likes of Andy feel the same

Andy is a better player than he was two years ago (assuming he can move with the same freedom of last year).

Is Rafa? Because to beat Murray and Nole away from the clay, he'll need to have improved. Maybe he is and at last is going to start winning all the time away from clay. I doubt it. I think Rafa is privately happy to have won the French and knows that his knees might not be up to the rigours of another slam so close

summerblues wrote:I am a bit puzzled why people rate Andy so high.

I dunno. Maybe it's his last two performances at Wimbledon held events

When evaluating form, what relevance does results from two years ago have, when the player getting "rated so high" has improved enough to win their first Slam and the player who was winning two years ago has done very little away from clay since.

I'm a bit puzzled as to why anyone watching that Olympic final, can't understand why the winner starts joint favourite with Novak and Rafa

I'm sure we'll be told that Andy only won The Olympics because Roger was knackered after the Del Potro match

As usual when Andy wins an event against his three rivals, the reason for it is never that he's now as good as them - it's because they didn't turn up / injured / worried about whether their kids have chicken pox / the weather. Hence we get the above comment

I think we need to see how Andy moves today when he takes to the Grass. If he wasn't playing Queens I wouldn't rate his chances. However he has been practicing longer on Grass than the main contenders and might well look sharp. Though the best kind of practice is match practice so let's hope Andy is still standing come Sunday

I do agree I could have egg on my face, if Andy gives us one of his insipid performances

However, I actually think that whereas, privately, prior to last year Andy dreaded these home events - he now relishes them

I also think he deliberately decided not to enter RG - i.e. if it had been Wimbledon he'd have been there

I just think it's a more serene Murray - a kind of 'this is my turf now' attitude is just around the corner

I of course could be spectacularly mistaken!!

No, I think you're right banbro.  Especially now after winning a gold medal at his home Olympics, I think Mr Murray really enjoys playing in Britain now.  Barring injury, I'm thinking about a 100% record on grass this year

Have to wait and see Banbro. That's what I expected after the US Open and it hasn't materialised. He produced probably the poorest performance of his career to lose to Rafa in 2011 (the subsequent defeat at the US Open in my view was a direct result of the mental scars of that display).

Whether he is now mentally strong enough to believe he can beat Rafa at wimbledon remains to be seen. Just a shame he didnt get a swifter chance to build on the mauling he dished out in Tokyo.

lydian wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:What's all this Tommy Haas bandwagoning. I predict a first week exit.

Bandwagoning? I'm saying he'll come around 5th which means reach quarters, possibly semis.
Don't forget this is the guy who just reached the quarters at RG on his worst surface.
I don't see QF/SF (draw permitting) on grass - he's defending Halle champ - as outrageous.
The guy is near top 10!

PS. I flew into Basel airport earlier this evening, didn't see "Rodge" given he's in Halle...I leave on Weds, if I see him then then Halle didn't go well at all!

Some good points there. But I think there is potential for over hype and let down. At his age, it may be 2 slams too close together.

Born Slippy wrote:Have to wait and see Banbro. That's what I expected after the US Open and it hasn't materialised. He produced probably the poorest performance of his career to lose to Rafa in 2011 (the subsequent defeat at the US Open in my view was a direct result of the mental scars of that display).

Whether he is now mentally strong enough to believe he can beat Rafa at wimbledon remains to be seen. Just a shame he didnt get a swifter chance to build on the mauling he dished out in Tokyo.

No. The US Open one was worse. At least at Wimby he had chances and it was disappointing at this failure to take them. At the US he gave us nowt and I noticed how (for the first time) angry he was with himself

He immediately changed his game, it's a myth those who think Lendl is the one who's made him become more hard hitting - it was actually Darren Cahill who was helping him at this time

This then resulted in a different Murray that autumn as Rafa found out. I mentioned that the Tokyo win would prove to be significant, it wasn't just another minor event clash between two of the big four

It proved that way, better performance at last years Aus Open was followed up with that summer

I actually don't understand what you think hasn't materialised. Good showing at the O2. Another slam final where he had an honourable defeat, then a Masters win - all with an increasingly dodgy back. At no time has he gone back to the sloppy ways of some of his 2010/11 spells. Could have done better - but has done OK

I'm favouring Murray more due to question marks over his rivals than anything else, although his record at Wimbledon over the last few years also speaks for itself. Federer's out of form, it's Novak's weakest surface and Nadal may not be tuned up enough and susceptible to an early exit. In addition, for some reason I see Murray as the guy who's nailed on to reach the latter stages - in my mind it'll be nearly impossible for a lower ranked player to take him out, and his games matches up well against other contenders such as Tsonga. I can't say that about the others.

So, Murray needs someone to take Nadal out for him, but if that happens then I think he's a heavy favourite. He won't fear Novak unduly (still a tough match, of course), and although he won't exactly relish having to deal with Federer, it'll be easier than last year. Would it fair to suggest that, assuming Fed hits form:

Nadal wants to avoid Novak.
Novak wants to avoid Federer.
Federer wants to avoid Nadal.
Murray wants to avoid Nadal, and possibly Federer.

summerblues wrote:I am a bit puzzled why people rate Andy so high.  Obviously he has a chance but what exactly is the argument to make him the #1 favorite?  

And Federer is below Andy only because Fed seems to be playing quite poorly now.  If he somehow recovers decent form, he would go ahead of Andy too.

 
 
I am tipping Murray to win it. I am basing this mainly on his 2012 performances at the same venue. In 2012 he was the finalist and it was a close match - he's been improving and now he just needs one further step. Would I be correct in thinking that the roof turned a 50/50 match Federer's way by improving the conditions for an agressive player. Then back at the Olympics and a superb Murray performance against a top form Federer. I now make Federer second favourite to Murray on any outdoor, non-clay surface and I think he has earned at least the right for Roger to have to prove otherwise.
 
As for Novak, hard is his best surface and Murray has shown that those matches between the 2 are close to 50/50. Nole only won one Wimbledon and it was in no way a vintage performance, he has the great fortune of playing Nadal on a rare day in the final that his forehand was misfiring. When I think of Murray's best grass performances they are better than Novak's - in fact what are Novak's best grass performances?
 
As for Rafa, well his dominance of Murray was against version 1.0 of Murray (2011 and before). To borrow some "media babble" from Lydian, we are now looking at the 2.0 Murray that has finally started beating Federer and Djokovic at major events, now won a slam, mentally stronger, better forehand. I don't see a Murray-Rafa match as anywhere near the foregone conclusion that some here think. In fact, I see it as the most interesting top 4 match we could see at Wimbledon (largely because we haven't seen it for a while). Rafa's 4-set victories against Murray at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2011 are a concern, as are his other two wins at Wimbledon, but Murray v2 has not had a crack at Nadal in a major yet. Murray did win their last meeting as well. Overall head to head is 13-5 Rafa (Clay 4-0, Grass 3-0, Hard 6-5) but as I say that was Murray v1.
 
As for the rest, A game Murray should take them down most of the time. There's always the possibility  of an early shock, but these seem less and less to Murray in slams these days. From 2009 on he's reached at least the semi.
at Wimbledon (2008 QF).

Really, you can make a case for any of the top 4 or even outside.

Silver wrote:I'm favouring Murray more due to question marks over his rivals than anything else, although his record at Wimbledon over the last few years also speaks for itself. Federer's out of form, it's Novak's weakest surface and Nadal may not be tuned up enough and susceptible to an early exit. In addition, for some reason I see Murray as the guy who's nailed on to reach the latter stages - in my mind it'll be nearly impossible for a lower ranked player to take him out, and his games matches up well against other contenders such as Tsonga. I can't say that about the others.

I agree 100% with this. As is the way sometimes, it's a matter of who has the best worst Tennis - something Roger memorably alluded to, after that equally memorable press conference, after his Novak Miami 09' defeat

The only person outside the top 4 who could realistically take down Murray on grass over a BO5 is Berdych is he has one of "those" days which Federer and his fans know all about.  I think his game matches up well against Ferrer on grass as the speed helps him hit winners past the wall, he can exploit DelPo's movement and he's beaten Tsonga numerous times.  Aside from the Czech,  the others don't have the game needed and as we know, Berdych is by no means a certainty to reach the second round, never mind the second week, of a major.