Boom or bust in Brizvegas: what are each side's best tactics?

Well we've seen the teams. It seems the approach of both coaches hasn't changed drastically but given the coaches now know which players are going to oppose them this Saturday in Brisbane, what specifically is going to be drummed into the players by their respective coaches.

Gatland has come out and said they will target Israel Folau. I think Gatland is trying to get inside the young man's head more than anything else. With the experience of Barnes and AAC around him, the young man has played international league and has prowess in the air. I don't think Gatland will want Sexton to drop bombs his way but testing him in his positional play is more likely what he has in mind. 

To me this is a smokescreen. If I were to target a player, it would be JOC. This kid is tough and he has played at flyhalf for the Force but I expect big men like Croft to come charging at him all day and put the pressure on him. He has a debut player outside him in Leali'ifano who is there for his more expressive and expansive play than the more direct McAbe. So for me, this channel must be pressured all day. You can't afford to give these players space or time because they can hurt you. Move up in their faces and cut their options and time down. That includes slowing down the ball and haranging Genia as much at the base of rucks. 

Similarly, Robbie Deans will be wary of the firepower out wide for the Lions. They can only get into the game if the Lions get over the advantage line and clear the ball away quickly. In a way Deans will be happy to see no sign of Tipuric on the bench. The Lions backrow doesn't lack speed in Heaslip and Croft but I'm not so sure they provide a link to the backs as well as Tipuric might have. Gatland has sacrificed continuity for pace and power both at the breakdown and with the ball in hand. Lydiate is on the bench offers that tackling power and presence with the ball. With no SOB or Tipuric, I do think there is an attacking edge being sacrificed for the breakdown collisions. Gatland is relying on Croft and Warburton to steal ball but that ball will be shipped to Sexton. There seems to be lacking a player who could snaffle the ball and link more with the outside backs straight away. 

Hooper has been preferred over Gill because he offers a more rounded skillset. He's quick but big enough to make his presence felt at the breakdown. How he and Palu operate with the inexperience of Mowen will be interesting and balance will play a crucial part in who can gain ascendancy in this area.

The set piece is going to be a fascinating contest. Gatland has chosen a powerful scrum and there is height for the lineout. It'll be interesting to see what lineouts are called for depending on what part of the field the Lions are in. I think the Lions will prefer short lineouts in the middle of the field and will look to go for the full lineout inside the Aussie 22 to get the rolling maul going. If I were Deans I'd contest the lineouts wherever the lineout is. Put pressure on the ball winner instead of holding back. The best way to counter a rolling maul is to disrupt it right from the beginning.

The game is being played in Brisbane. The Wallabies are no strangers to heat and humidity. I expect Deans to shift the point of attack to get the Lions big men running round to tire them out. Humidity is sapping and the more ground they cover, the less bite they have at scrum times. Gatland will want Sexton to control the game and go for territory. He won't mind seeing the ball in touch to give his players a rest. That requires a clever kicking game with good chasing. No need to kick early or get involved in an aerial ping pong match. Ioane and Folau will ideally be targeted to kick and take Barnes or JOC out of the equation as much as possible. The kicking needs to be accurate though because you don't want Folau and Ioane coming back at you with a full head of steam. Deprive these players of space with good chasing. 

The use of the bench is going to be interesting. This has not been a strength of Deans but my concern for Gatland is that there is a degree of sameness about his bench. It's a bench that can protect a lead but I'm not so sure it's a bench to get you back into the game. There seems to be a bit more punch about the Aussie bench and their squad in general seems to have better all-round cover. There is no genuine openside cover for the Lions so to an extent Gatland is taking a gamble.

Overall, there seems no surprises to the squad selections in general. We expected this type of gameplan. But if you were either coach, which areas would you target this Saturday based on the team selections?

Lions: use big runners at JOC and LLF not to break the tackle but to commit the line, get space to test the positional sense/fitness of Folau/Ioane respectively with our big wingers, keep the ball alive and play kicking for territory and really pressurise the Aussie lineout. Go for long goals early (Halfpenny will get them) to instill the fear of infringing anywhere in their own half then turn the screw. Get in Genia and JOC's face all day to stop that from clicking. Strangle the attacking force out of them

wallabies- target turnoverable ball with Mowen and Hooper then run and short pass as defenders commit all day. Mix up the first receivers to be unpredictable and in the Lions 22 use the crossfield kick to Folau as a weapon of mass destruction. Play for possession not territory. Bring on Gill and move Hooper to 6 (Mowen to 8) at 60 mins to proceed to starve the Lions of ball and McCabe to shore up the midfield and watch the Lions struggle to chase the game with few impact subs

Nice CJ. North and Folau will be an intriguing battle.

I expect Sexton to be rushed up at as well. That will depend on a lot how quick the Lions ball can be recycled and if the forwards can get over the advantage line.

Good post... Folau is a talented lad. Sure to be a great tussle. I think the back row and front row battle will be intense... Halfbacks too....

I agree with the OP point of Sexton testing with kicks of varied length to un-structure the back three's positioning.

Barry John lead a kicking master class in the first Test of that epic New Zealand tour in 71. His ability to turn defences inside out with the ball in his hand, no one ever kicked with deadlier tactical nous than John. He not only undermined the All Blacks, he destroyed the international career of the ABs full-back Fergie McCormick who was torn into so many pieces by the range and subtlety of John's kicking game that he never played for the All Blacks again. He spent the whole afternoon running backwards, sideways, forwards, he was any where but where the ball was going from johns boot.

Every young flyhalf should watch that test match and learn what a great flyhalf can do to the opposition with boot and ball.

If you've seen Folau in the SR this season he was a little shaky to begin with but his attacking play grew with every game... its not just his strike running, his game play is akin to a Stephen Larkham... he brings in so many players into the game so shouldn't be seen as a a simple strike runner ont he wing... he will come in, distribute, set up players.
One of the most interesting battles of the series with North I'm certain.

We will keep it tight, hold on to the ball, recycle slowly on occasion (yes slowly) and look to create gaps by driving down the middle. We will have an aggressive defence and 1/2p will kick the goals and we will come away with a 23-16 victory in the first test.

If I have to predict.... I'd probably say a loss on Saturday. I was a lot more confident in 2009, more similar to 05.

These guys haven't played together against such a complete team and at such an intensity which these sides bring.
The AUS pack at 920kg is about 50kg bigger then they've faced... our lineout has struggled when it should have been dominant against lesser sides.

If we're going to win 1 test I'd say we're most likely to win the 2nd test. Thats when we've got up to speed, correct any issues and have minimal injuries compared.

I was watching the 2001 Lions the other night.

The speed, handling and general skills just seemed so much higher then compared to now. Much better to watch 

The Golden age Cyril.

Eales, Larkham, Gregan, Roff, Johnson, Hill, Quinnell, Wood, Robinson....

does the current class come up to scratch???

Cyril on 606v2 wrote:I was watching the 2001 Lions the other night.

The speed, handling and general skills just seemed so much higher then compared to now. Much better to watch 

Careful what you wish for when you breed'em big. Who has been breeding them big and forcing others to follow along?

I reckon Cuthbert's height is a big reason he got picked as Folau is so good in the air.

disneychilly wrote:I reckon Cuthbert's height is a big reason he got picked as Folau is so good in the air.

North will be up against Folau though. Cuthbert gets Digby, I think

fa0019 wrote:If I have to predict.... I'd probably say a loss on Saturday. I was a lot more confident in 2009, more similar to 05.

These guys haven't played together against such a complete team and at such an intensity which these sides bring.
The AUS pack at 920kg is about 50kg bigger then they've faced... our lineout has struggled when it should have been dominant against lesser sides.

If we're going to win 1 test I'd say we're most likely to win the 2nd test. Thats when we've got up to speed, correct any issues and have minimal injuries compared.

The lineout shouldnt be a major concern with POC, AWJ, Croft and Heaslip all in the team.

Disagree re winning the second test. The Lions should be better prepared that the Aussies having played more games, weak opposition or not. They really should be looking for a really strong start.

My concern for the Lions is that they're putting their eggs in one basket. An impressive basket but there doesn't seem to be a great deal of flexibility if Australia are successful at negating the style of play they want to impose.

Think they'll be switching a bit CJ.

Not sure if the weather in Brisbane will be as much a handicap for the Lions as we keep hearing. It has been no more than 20°C all week. Indeed today it was quite overcast and rainy.

"My concern for the Lions is that they're putting their eggs in one basket."

That seems to be the Gatland way. Flexibility is not his strong point.

The Aussies seem to think the best way to beat Gatland's Lions is to play them at Gatlandball

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/preview-wallabies-v-british-irish-lions-first-test/

The Lions supporter in me hopes they try because their team is not designed to do that and ours is

The rugby supporter in me thinks it would basically be a crime against rugby to let that Aussie backline play rugby like that

Barnes at 10 would be an indication of a kicking game akin to the Brumbies. Barnes at 15 may suggest an unwillingness to run the ball back from Lions kicks. JOC doesn't sit back so I don't think he'll kick the leather off. McAbe on the bench suggests to me that JOC will bring the ball to the line and try to get the ball past the midfield into space.