Nadal Fed quarter (?)

Im hoping this wont get too heated, and i ask for respect soo here we go

The quarters are scheduling a Rafa Fed re re re match on grass. Discuss...
Who will win and how? Whos got the advantage? Will they both even make it?Are people gonna over hype it due to 2008?
Its been quite a while since weve had a real chance of these 2 meeting in a GS soo id like to hear your views, but be nice

For me I think theyll both make it, maybe Nadal a little harder than Fed, and I reckon Nadl will do it in 4 or 5, Fed has a court advantage, but has never really combatted that single handed disadvantage.

A little bit premature don't you think?

Why don't we wait to see if they both make it that far.

They both have to get there first

I know... im asking if you think they will get there too

I don't even want to think about it ... Do you think the AELTC will revise the seedings even at this late stage?

hawkeye wrote:Do you think the AELTC will revise the seedings even at this late stage?

Aaaargh! Cannot keep repeating same facts. Have you not read the numerous posts explaining the rules that AELTC are bound by or are you just choosing to ignore them as they do not suit you on this occasion?

Why would they? Nadal vs Fed, then one vs Murray then Djoko gives them 3 dream matches that will all be completely different in character

If & when it happens I'll be doing a rain dance. Get it indoors and Fed is still the man.

bogbrush wrote:If & when it happens I'll be doing a rain dance. Get it indoors and Fed is still the man.

Ha, that's a good point. Fed is not as long a shot as some may think if it goes indoors.

I opted for Federer in 5 but you would think that if Fed was going to beat Rafa he has to do it 4. My only sincere hope is that it will be an evenly balanced contest and not a runaway easy win for Rafa, which is more than possible, even if this is on grass. Amazing to think that should it happen, it will be their first grass court meeting since 2008!

What do others think about the possibility of an early Nadal exit? It did happen last year after all, and he hasn't had that much time to make the transition from clay (missed Halle).

The one result I can't see is Fed in 5, not at this stage in their careers.

In any case with Murray to follow and Djokovic after that, Federer may as well throw the 5th if it came to that, he can't plough through these guys that way.

He has no option but to humiliate them all in straights.

For once Federer and Nadal fans should be united in sayig- on paper BOTH Federer and Nadal got screwed or incredibly unlucky with this draw... while Djokovic was blessed, even Ferrer was.. It's funny- but Federer staying ranked higher than some of these guys has not paid off at all for him in draw luck the past couple of years except at RG this year.. He would have been better off even at RG to be ranked behind Ferrer, and esp this time.
As it stands though-- think of how brutal this is for Fed and Nadal.
Over the hill,past 31 Fed has to probably beat
1. A top 5 all time and in his prime Nadal who clearly has a huge H2H matchup advantage...
2. then an inprime Murray who was last years grass finalist and won the Olympic Gold on Grass beating Federer-
3. the inprime #1 player in the world Djokovic who has a cake draw and will be well rested..
Given Fed's fitness issues and form this year, it's hard to see him beating those 3 in 5 days in succession.. In his favor though- he's one of the top 2 grass courters ever, still fantastic on grass, has a better h2h on grass over Nadal, beat Murray last year and beat Djoko last year on grass.
Now Nadals pass is basically the same
1. He gets to play a 7 time winner, defending champion, one of the 2 best grass courters ever in Federer in the quarters,
2. then goes through Murray whose style will translate well against Nadal on grass
3. then has to beat Djokovic who he hasn't beaten once off of clay since 2010, and who he lost too the last time they played at Wimby..
In his favor- his huge h2h and mental advantage over Fed, same over Murray...
Fact is-- if either Nadal or Federer win this year- it would be the greatest Major victory of their careers.

Im not even going there... ask me in the 2nd week if they are all there and still standing

emancipator wrote:A little bit premature don't you think?

Why don't we wait to see if they both make it that far.

Agreed, given Fed's form I am doubtful he would make it that far, given tough route for Nadal with Wawrinka another Swiss in 4th round and Falla in 2nd round all can upset Rafa's route to Quarters.

But if they both make thus far, given Rafa's form and Fed's form and H2h Rafa in 3 for me.

Rafa and Stan have never played against each other on grass, interestingly.

Stan is currently the man in the s'Hertgenbosch Final.

I wouldn't think Falla will take Nadal out in a best of five set, but Wawrinka certainly stands a chance, much better Than he did at RG. Bit of cakewalk for Djoko, though. But on grass, especially with the roof, every player is one red line away from upsetting the big dogs.

To answer the OP, I think, if both men come in fresh for the clash, Nadal will take in four. although a three set dismissal is completely possible

Federer in 4 for me.

TRuffin wrote:For once Federer and Nadal fans should be united in sayig- on paper BOTH Federer and Nadal got screwed or incredibly unlucky with this draw... while Djokovic was blessed, even Ferrer was.. It's funny- but Federer staying ranked higher than some of these guys has not paid off at all for him in draw luck the past couple of years except at RG this year.. He would have been better off even at RG to be ranked behind Ferrer, and esp this time.
As it stands though-- think of how brutal this is for Fed and Nadal.
Over the hill,past 31 Fed has to probably beat
1. A top 5 all time and in his prime Nadal who clearly has a huge H2H matchup advantage...
2. then an inprime Murray who was last years grass finalist and won the Olympic Gold on Grass beating Federer-
3. the inprime #1 player in the world Djokovic who has a cake draw and will be well rested..
Given Fed's fitness issues and form this year, it's hard to see him beating those 3 in 5 days in succession.. In his favor though- he's one of the top 2 grass courters ever, still fantastic on grass, has a better h2h on grass over Nadal, beat Murray last year and beat Djoko last year on grass.
Now Nadals pass is basically the same
1. He gets to play a 7 time winner, defending champion, one of the 2 best grass courters ever in Federer in the quarters,
2. then goes through Murray whose style will translate well against Nadal on grass
3. then has to beat Djokovic who he hasn't beaten once off of clay since 2010, and who he lost too the last time they played at Wimby..
In his favor- his huge h2h and mental advantage over Fed, same over Murray...
Fact is-- if either Nadal or Federer win this year- it would be the greatest Major victory of their careers.

I'm crying buckets, thinking about how "brutal" it is for poor Fedal, given all the better court times etc they've had over the years than the other two

A lot of people seem to think it's still 2011 or 2010 when, there was a law that Fedal be treated like royalty (mind you it'll be interesting to see which of Murray / Nadal are moved away form Centre Court on Monday ) and we knew based on past performances that he probably would go "through Murray...on grass" - we seem to be forgetting that Nadal went out in the early rounds last year and Murray played poorly in 2011 having been a set and a simple shot away from making it two

Federer in 5, if they get there of course

Lets wait as others have said.

Federer might have to face the LEGEND of ROSOL in R3!

Nadal might have a tricky R3 encounter with Paire.

lydian wrote:Federer might have to face the LEGEND of ROSOL in R3!

True. Rosol has the chance to emulate Soderling. Take out Nadal in a Major one year, and the return the next year and take out Federer in the same Major .

I hope he doesn´t but if he does at least Rafa would get a rest

If they both get there Nadal is the very strong favourite I'd say, 4 sets.  It's slightly reminiscent of Sampras vs. Agassi QF in the 2001 US Open (what a match that was).

I agree with those who point out that if the draw goes according to seeding Wimbledon has five star matches from Wednesday through to Sunday - the AELTCC won't be grizzling about that.

I'm lucky enough to be on CC on Thursday (a friend got tickets in his club ballot and his wife can't make it at the last minute), I reckon I'll get to see a match or two from Djoko's side of the draw then.

That's the QF match I wanted. I think Fed will take this if they both get there. The grass won't be as slow as it would be for a final and his record against Rafa on quickish courts remains decent. I agree he will need to win it in less than 5. Fed in 4.

Born Slippy wrote:That's the QF match I wanted. I think Fed will take this if they both get there. The grass won't be as slow as it would be for a final and his record against Rafa on quickish courts remains decent. I agree he will need to win it in less than 5. Fed in 4.

Yea thats the factor most of us completely forgot the freshness of the grass, generally the 1st week the grass is more alive and kicking fast than in the 2nd, and if it goes indoors Fed do have a chance, but given Fed's current form I don't see anything outside st.sets to Rafa.

Born Slippy wrote:That's the QF match I wanted. I think Fed will take this if they both get there. The grass won't be as slow as it would be for a final and his record against Rafa on quickish courts remains decent. I agree he will need to win it in less than 5. Fed in 4.

By the QF the grass is pretty worn down. I am having a tough time envisioning Federer winning this one if they both get that far but I certainly hope I am wrong.

If they both get that far (not a given by any means), then Rafa in straights - sadly.

I would fancy Rafa to win as well, in 4 or 5 if Roger plays really well, 3 if he doesn't. Not a foregone conclusion though.

The question I want to know is when do we have to start queing to get one of the 500 centre court tickets? I mean, this is a really an unprecedented calibre QF, and you can't queue for semis and finals, so there's no history to judge it on it could be anywhere from perhaps the morning of the day before, to even having to get there on the Monday?? On Monday they will have to have 2 separate queues started, one for Tuesday and one for Wednesday.

Then again, yes, one of them might fail to make the date. Although looking at the draw it would almost take a Rosol level surprise to make it happen.

Summer Blues, are you in France, are you enjoying it, or are you back now to the US?

Nadal's worst is better than Fed's best. A fact so sad even most Nadal fans wouldn't want to admit.

banbrotam wrote:Federer in 5, if they get there of course

Are you wumming?

This is the least likely result.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Nadal's worst is better than Fed's best.............................................

Is this assessment actually reflected in recent results ... ?

In their last five meetings, the overall match score is 3-2 in favour of Rafa.

When I saw Federer take out Rafa at last year's IW Masters (in comfortable straights) I remember thinking at the time that Rafa played pretty well and yet Fed was not truly at his best.

There is no absolutely no doubt that Federer's best days are behind him, and I would always expect a player just short of 32 to be second favourite to one still in his prime. But in a one-off match, on grass, I think it's fair to say Federer is still capable of beating anyone put in front of him.

Henman Bill wrote:Summer Blues, are you in France, atre you enjoying it, or are you back now to the US?

Thanks for asking. Still in France and having a great time, flying back tomorrow - just in time to enjoy the Wimbledon from the comfort of my sofa.

Ok have a good trip back.

lags72 wrote:

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Nadal's worst is better than Fed's best.............................................

Is this assessment actually reflected in recent results ... ?  

In their last five meetings, the overall match score is 3-2 in favour of Rafa.

When I saw Federer take out Rafa at last year's IW Masters (in comfortable straights) I remember thinking at the time that Rafa played pretty well and yet Fed was not truly at his best.

There is no absolutely no doubt that Federer's best days are behind him, and I would always expect a player just short of 32 to be second favourite to one still in his prime. But in a one-off match, on grass, I think it's fair to say Federer is still capable of beating anyone put in front of him.

I don't remember Indian Wells being that comfortable and if it was what happened this time? Nadal was probably injured or unmotivated that time anyway. Nadal is better now than when Fed was competing and still losing to him when in his own prime.

My mistake.

It somehow slipped my mind that Rafa never loses a tennis match (least of all to Federer) unless he is "injured or unmotivated".

This especially applies with regard to all WTF losses by Rafa, in which case the golden rule of tired-at-end-of-the-season may also be officially invoked by way of explanation ......

Well, it is an interesting to note that, after the draw, there were big movements in the odds. Even if you don't like to bet, it is still interesting to consider this as arguably the best assessment of probability to win - what the market believes.

Djokovic's odds to win have been slashed from about 2/1 (1 in 3 chance of winning it) to much nearer evens (50% chance of winning it) as a result of his easy draw and in particular potentially easier semi final opponent.

Nadal, presumably as a result of his tough QF draw is actually level favourite with Murray now, which I don't think was the case at all before. I think Nadal was clearly ahead before.

Federer's odds also lengthened a bit.

It would a shame if the winner of Federer/Nadal (if it happens) also beat Murray and then lost to Djokovic. We would then have the situation of someone beating two "big 4" players and losing the title to someone who only had to play one "big 4" match (rather than 3). I don't want to see that - seems a bit unfair - I think I'd prefer to see Djokovic beaten in the final. Although if one of Federer, Nadal or Murray suffers an early exit it would be a lot less unfair.

We had a similar situation at Indian Wells with Del Potro beating Murray and Djokovic, the 2 best hard court players in the world, before losing to Nadal who, had to play a below par Federer to get to the final and some players ranked outside the top 4-5.

Of course if Federer/Nadal winner were to beat Murray and Djokovic and win the title it would be a very worthy, almost unique perhaps, achievement. What a challenge though.

I have tipped Murray to win the title but he now almost certainly has a tough semi against either Federer or Nadal. Which I think he can win actually but then would be a shame if it were a tough 5-setter which left him spent in the final. Might still be a question mark on Murray in not being at the same level as Djokovic and Nadal in terms of top class ability to do a mentally and emotionally and physically draining semi and not let the level drop for the final.

Anyway, will be interesting to see.

This is what Rafa has to say about his part in the tournament.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/tennis-rafa-happy-arrive-wimbledon-two-knees-152438765.html

Henman Bill wrote:Well, it is an interesting to note that, after the draw, there were big movements in the odds. Even if you don't like to bet, it is still interesting to consider this as arguably the best assessment of probability to win - what the market believes.

Djokovic's odds to win have been slashed from about 2/1 (1 in 3 chance of winning it) to much nearer evens (50% chance of winning it) as a result of his easy draw and in particular potentially easier semi final opponent.

Nadal, presumably as a result of his tough QF draw is actually level favourite with Murray now, which I don't think was the case at all before. I think Nadal was clearly ahead before.

Federer's odds also lengthened a bit.

It would a shame if the winner of Federer/Nadal (if it happens) also beat Murray and then lost to Djokovic. We would then have the situation of someone beating two "big 4" players and losing the title to someone who only had to play one "big 4" match (rather than 3). I don't want to see that - seems a bit unfair - I think I'd prefer to see Djokovic beaten in the final. Although if one of Federer, Nadal or Murray suffers an early exit it would be a lot less unfair.

We had a similar situation at Indian Wells with Del Potro beating Murray and Djokovic, the 2 best hard court players in the world, before losing to Nadal who, had to play a below par Federer to get to the final and some players ranked outside the top 4-5.

Of course if Federer/Nadal winner were to beat Murray and Djokovic and win the title it would be a very worthy, almost unique perhaps, achievement. What a challenge though.

I have tipped Murray to win the title but he now almost certainly has a tough semi against either Federer or Nadal. Which I think he can win actually but then would be a shame if it were a tough 5-setter which left him spent in the final. Might still be a question mark on Murray in not being at the same level as Djokovic and Nadal in terms of top class ability to do a mentally and emotionally and physically draining semi and not let the level drop for the final.

Anyway, will be interesting to see.

As always HB - an excellent summation

Haddie-nuff wrote:This is what Rafa has to say about his part in the tournament.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/tennis-rafa-happy-arrive-wimbledon-two-knees-152438765.html

He should give more credit to Rosol--- Rosol hit him off the court and Nadal was running like he always does. Whether he had injections to kill the pain or not-- they must have been working and he wasn't feeling it because he was moving as fast as ever.  So the result was from Rosol playing lights out.

So lets give Rosol the credit.. lets see how well he does this year... Rosol that is.. Im sure Roger will make short work of him.

Most happy about 3 of the big 4 being on the other side of the draw. The tournament directors should give Nadal a top 4 if not a top 2 seeding to avoid this eventuality but they didn't and Murray, Nadal, and Federer fans must feel a bit hard done. That being said on grass you run up into a hot server or power player who is ripping the ball and you can be out, easy draw or not. Can't lie as a djokovic fan I am happy with the draw. However, this could have been avoided if the slams acted logically and tweaked the seedings a little. In the future this situation shows why at times they may have to look beyond a pure 52 week rankings formula for slam seeding.

I think it's been mentioned before that the slams can't tweak the seedings - their hands are tied by the agreement they reached with the ATP.
Wimbledon are allowed to follow their grass court formula, but Rafa's poor showing at Wimby, and Ferrer's grass court tournament win + Wimby 1/4 final meant he stayed at 4th - as his ranking is higher and his recent grass court results are better.

TRuffin wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:This is what Rafa has to say about his part in the tournament.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/tennis-rafa-happy-arrive-wimbledon-two-knees-152438765.html

He should give more credit to Rosol--- Rosol hit him off the court and Nadal was running like he always does. Whether he had injections to kill the pain or not-- they must have been working and he wasn't feeling it because he was moving as fast as ever.  So the result was from Rosol playing lights out.

At the time Rafa said, and I quote:

Q. Is it frustrating for you to see a guy who is hitting forehand winners 100 miles an hours, putting in first serves anytime he needs it?
RAFAEL NADAL: That's happens, no? Playing in this surface these kind of matches can happen. Today happened, and I didn't have the right inspiration in the first three sets in a few points. To win these kind of matches I must have this inspiration in that moments; I didn't.
Later was impossible, no? That's happens when you play against a player who is able to hit the ball very hard, hit the ball without thinking and feeling the pressure.
At the end, when the opponent wants to play like he wanted to play in the fifth, you are in his hands, no? Everything was going right for him in the fifth.

Q. When was the last time somebody served that well against you, especially in a fifth set?
RAFAEL NADAL: Is not the right moment to think for me. Is very, very difficult for me to imagine or think when was the last time. I played a lot of matches. Sorry.

Q. Do you think by not playing well in the first three sets maybe you gave him some confidence that he could actually win?
RAFAEL NADAL: No, I played bad and my return wasn't work very well. I think my served worked well, but I played with little bit less energy than other times. He had two very good games on the return. I think very good returns, long, and hitting the ball very hard.
I had two breaks in that two sets, and I really didn't had that chance to have the break back.

I put Nadal in 5, because for Federer this may be the last time he plays Wimbledon.

It'll be a tough match for both players, Nadal is trying to prove to the world he is back in business, and try to get back the superiority he enjoyed before, beating Roger would cement that in his mind at least.
Federer is trying to perpetuate a career by winning these types of match-ups, its crucial for Roger to win as many of these as possible to give himself the belief he can go on, IMHO of course.

Can the sly fox beat the raging bull ?

Haddie-nuff wrote:So lets give Rosol the credit.. lets see how well he does this year... Rosol that is.. Im sure Roger will make short work of him.

What does how well he does this year have to do with the reason he won last year?  No one thinks or could think- Rosol is better than Nadal or that was his normal form. The guy went into a zone where he was playing lights out for a day and simply blasted the ball off the court..  It was a fluke, but still a legitimate win.  Nadal doesn't even mention that Rosol played well.

TRuffin wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:So lets give Rosol the credit.. lets see how well he does this year... Rosol that is.. Im sure Roger will make short work of him.

What does how well he does this year have to do with the reason he won last year?  No one thinks or could think- Rosol is better than Nadal or that was his normal form. The guy went into a zone where he was playing lights out for a day and simply blasted the ball off the court..  It was a fluke, but still a legitimate win.  Nadal doesn't even mention that Rosol played well.

But he has done in several other interviews.

ChequeredJersey wrote:

TRuffin wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:This is what Rafa has to say about his part in the tournament.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/tennis-rafa-happy-arrive-wimbledon-two-knees-152438765.html

He should give more credit to Rosol--- Rosol hit him off the court and Nadal was running like he always does. Whether he had injections to kill the pain or not-- they must have been working and he wasn't feeling it because he was moving as fast as ever.  So the result was from Rosol playing lights out.

At the time Rafa said, and I quote:

Q. Is it frustrating for you to see a guy who is hitting forehand winners 100 miles an hours, putting in first serves anytime he needs it?
RAFAEL NADAL: That's happens, no? Playing in this surface these kind of matches can happen. Today happened, and I didn't have the right inspiration in the first three sets in a few points. To win these kind of matches I must have this inspiration in that moments; I didn't.
Later was impossible, no? That's happens when you play against a player who is able to hit the ball very hard, hit the ball without thinking and feeling the pressure.
At the end, when the opponent wants to play like he wanted to play in the fifth, you are in his hands, no? Everything was going right for him in the fifth.

Q. When was the last time somebody served that well against you, especially in a fifth set?
RAFAEL NADAL: Is not the right moment to think for me. Is very, very difficult for me to imagine or think when was the last time. I played a lot of matches. Sorry.

Q. Do you think by not playing well in the first three sets maybe you gave him some confidence that he could actually win?
RAFAEL NADAL: No, I played bad and my return wasn't work very well. I think my served worked well, but I played with little bit less energy than other times. He had two very good games on the return. I think very good returns, long, and hitting the ball very hard.
I had two breaks in that two sets, and I really didn't had that chance to have the break back.

That's exactly the point- right after the match when all the cameras are on him, Nadal gives the guy some credit..  Since then- in several interviews- Nadal takes all that credit away and blames it on his knees-- when anyone who saw the match saw that Nasdal injured or not- was running fully and with his usual amazing defense...   Nadal won't even mention Rosol and his play now..

Here's a refresher on the match..  Nadal could have been the best shape of his life and he's not getting to those aces. The knee did not factor into it as he was moving fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cjKxPPaMSc

No one is perfect and I don't pretend Nadal should be... but don't hide your head in the sand either and pretend that he's not trying to put full blame on this match on his knees now.....and that's not right

Truffin. I'm not sure what you want Nadal to say. He came into the tournament not fully fit and in hind-site probably unwisely. But the saying goes if you play you are fit (?) and if you get beaten it is because your opponent is better than you. So what should he say when it is now obvious that he was having physical problems? That he was fit? Then why did he have to take 8 months off. Or admit that he was having problems? And somehow "dis" Rosol?

Just imagine you were in that position and were being asked about it. What would you say? I know I would just end up telling the truth. It would be stupid to pretend otherwise.

I thought it was pretty poor show to take the credit away from Rosol by blaming it on an injury. If you want to do that, do it at the time.

Meanwhile, Rosol has really built on his win and gone from 100 at the time of Wimbledon last year to 34 now; he's not leaning too heavily on his Wimbledon points last year, which count for only 90 of his over 1000 and without which he'd only be 5 positions lower.

His real impressive result was winning at ATP 250, and he also won a challenger. It's almost as if that win against Rafa raised him from a 100 ranked player to a top 50 one since then. See if it lasts.

Similar thing happened to Soderling when he beat Rafa. Suddenly went from a 30 or so ranked journeyman that struggled to progress beyond a slam round 3 to a regular top tenner reaching slam final, doing OK inn the world tour finals, winning a masters etc.