Rabo direct and Aviva premiership table prediction

by dragon4life Wed 26 Jun 2013, 10:13 am

First topic message reminder :

RD
1.Leinster
2.Glasgow
3.Ospreys
4.Ulster
5.Munster
6.Scarlets
7.Treviso
8.Dragons
9.Blues
10.Connacht
11.Edinburgh
12.Zebre

AP
1.Tigers
2.Sarries
3.Northampton
4.Glouster
5.Exeter chiefs
6.Bath
7.Quins
8.Wasps
9.Newcastle
10.Worcester
11.Sharks
12.London irish

Thoughts? And one else have a go?
Any young players going to break out onto the scene?

by Poorfour Tue 02 Jul 2013, 8:25 pm

I can't comment on the Rabo - just don't follow it closely enough. For the AP:

Leicester
Sarries
Quins

Gloucester
Saints
Wasps
Exeter
Bath

Newcastle
Sale
Worcester
London Irish

People seem to be discounting Quins for not making big signings and losing JJ. But as Sam has said, the new engagement sequence will lessen that impact. Quins are strong in most positions (First XV contains 11 internationals and 3 Saxons) with good backup in most positions (but, crucially, not quite international standard). Weak spots are Lock (where 2 injuries would see us relying on newly promoted Academy players), Tighthead (where the cover is very promising but inexperienced) and Captaincy when Robshaw is away (unless COS sees sense and gives the armband to Wallace rather than Robson or Easter). But the squad is very stable (we've lost only JJ from the AP winning squad) and a year's extra experience will count for a lot. Plus, we're unlikely to bother the knockout stages of the Heino this year...

by formerly known as Sam Tue 02 Jul 2013, 8:49 pm

COS is a canny operator I'd put money on at least one more signing coming in.

by Brendan Tue 02 Jul 2013, 11:57 pm

Think the Rabo will be tight like last year.

If leinster loose the first few games like Smits first year or like Os this year it is hard to catch up with the others.

Ulster & Glasgow will be as strong as last year so should get two of the playoff spots. The remaining two places is between Os, Leinster, Munster & Scarlets for the other two.

Not sure about Blues as they nearly always have their big players underperforming.

I think that Blues, Treviso, Edinburgh & Connacht will all be pushing for the top six but would settle for 8th except Terviso who i think will be pushing hard this year.

For some reason i think Dragons might have a dog fight with Zebre at the bottom.

I think there will be 6pts between 2-6, 10pts between 7-10
I also think that Zebre will win 3games and get 20 pts.

The Prem i think will be top three of Sarries, Tigers and Quinns in that order.

Then i think there will be a gap of 10pts to fourth which will be a scrape and i think that how people do in HC/Amlin will have the opposite affect in the league. I do think Glaws will get 4th.

Bottom will be worcestor. If newcastle get off the a bad start i think their heads might drop. If that happens could be like two years ago and come down to the last game.

Think irish will secure their status with 3 games left.

by beshocked Wed 03 Jul 2013, 9:30 am

Poorfour

PDJ is not an adequate replacement for JJ with or without the hit.

I think Quins have a good squad but I feel that both Leicester and Sarries have got stronger. Saints with North and Corbisiero - have two Lions and very good signings (obviously it's key Corbisiero stays fit). Whereas Saints had a confident end to the season, Quins finished with a splutter. Saints season could hinge on keeping players intact.

It's important Quins have a strong start because that's what you have had in the last two seasons.

I think Quins will also get challenges from both Bath and Gloucester.

Bath are a side who are building a squad with real potential.

Gloucester are a side with a good looking backrow and backline.

Exeter have also been a nemesis of Quins. Could be the same again.

by Poorfour Wed 03 Jul 2013, 10:28 am

'shocked. Fair points, though Quins' recruitment policy is markedly different from most other teams. Their emphasis is on promoting from within and there hasn't really been a big signing since Evans. For Quins, "getting stronger" is a question of accumulating more experience in the younger players, which did happen last season.

I do think that the new scrum laws will bring some surprises as players and coaches adapt, and history has shown that John Kingston is one of the better coaches at adapting. He's also got a track record of turning unappreciated THs into very good players (Mike Ross and JJ are both examples); no reason why he can't do that with PD-J, and I suspect Quins' willingness to be outbid for JJ may well have been with one eye on the changes coming through. We will have to wait for the winter to see.

There are lots of teams that look promising for next season, but it's one thing to be promising and another to be able to sustain a campaign.

by formerly known as Sam Wed 03 Jul 2013, 12:05 pm

JJ is technically very weak, particularly when it comes to the bind. He was a real force in the hit though and with that seemingly gone it could be a difficult initial period for him. PDJ seems a decent technical prop but one that lacked impact on the hit, in that regard he may do better at the set piece but keeping up with the expansive Quins will be a real challenge for him.

by beshocked Wed 03 Jul 2013, 12:21 pm

Poorfour you talk about experience yet on the wings from example your 1st choice Monye and Williams are hardly spring chickens.

Where are these youngsters who you think can break into the Quins side? Who are the bolters?

I see an awful lot of secured spots for the likes of Care,Brown,Robshaw,Marler but not too many contenders to challenge them.

Which player for example do you think will see Quins kick onto the next level?

Sam JJ is good in the loose though right?

by Bathite Wed 03 Jul 2013, 12:29 pm

Beshocked, Quins have probably got the best set of youngsters in the prem, along with Exeter.

Lowe, Casson, Botica, Chisholm, Wallace, Matthews, Buchanan, Smith, Lindsay-Hague, Sinckler, Merrick, Clifford just off the top of my head.

by beshocked Wed 03 Jul 2013, 12:33 pm

Yes you say they have a good set of youngsters but how many of them do you think will realistically make Quins a stronger side than their competitors.

It's all well and good having a good crop of youngsters but they need to make an impact. Which of them do you think will come of age this season?

by Bathite Wed 03 Jul 2013, 1:45 pm

Botica started ahead of Evans at times. Lowe and Casson ahead of JTH, Wallace pushing Fasa, Buchanan on an England tour, Clifford will push Easter. Matthews played towards the end of the season. They've all made an impact, what are you talking about?

by formerly known as Sam Wed 03 Jul 2013, 2:06 pm

Casson and Lowe are first team regulars and neither are that young.

I think Beshocked is trying to point out that the first 15 has not been improved. The youngsters are coming through nicely but none are going to add a dynamic to the first team in the same way North will for Saints or Vunipola will for Sarries. I'd argue that Buchanan may make a positive impact on the squad but otherwise I'd agree. Quins have the squad to finish in the top 4 but do they have the first team to win the big matches? Same question I had for my beloved Tigers last summer. We didn't sign any players that had a big impact on the starting lineup (though kudos to Thompstone and his try scoring record) but we did alright.

Beshocked, JJ will offer you another powerful carrying option but Gustard will need to work on his defence.

by beshocked Wed 03 Jul 2013, 2:13 pm

Bathite I honestly think you are arguing with me just for the sake of it. I know you don't appreciate my point of view.

When I say impact I mean like Vunipola for Sarries or Wade for Wasps. That kind of impact. I suppose Buchanan would fit into that category. Really make Quins a noticeably better side.

The likes of Lowe,Botica and Wallace have been good but next season could be their coming of age. I am talking about being in the England squad.

Do you think they will push Quins to the next level?

Thank you Sam. That is what I mean

I think Tait has made that full back shirt his own and has looked good in the latter part of the season when I have seen him.

by Standulstermen Wed 03 Jul 2013, 2:30 pm

theslosty wrote:Just the Rabo.

Glasgow - looked strong at the end of the season and have retained their squad. Tough HC group could work out in their favour.
Ulster - will stay at roughly the same level, but Afoa could be a big loss
Munster - have a young and improving side and hopefully the return of POC
Leinster - will be a difficult year without Sexton, Schmidt and Isa. Some players aren't getting any younger and squad is thin in places. Even so will finish in top 4.
Ospreys
Treviso - becoming harder and harder to beat
Scarlets
Blues
Connacht
Edinburgh
Dragons
Zebre

do you know something others don't?

by formerly known as Sam Wed 03 Jul 2013, 2:55 pm

Tait wasn't really a new signing that was more of the coaches backing him over an extended period of time and him coming good (with a lot of help from Geordie).

I think a Wallace and Robshaw combo on the backrow could work well for Quins but they need a big ball carrying 8 and to move Easter into the second row full time to pull that off. Botica is a good 10 and should be the long term replacement to Evans. If I was COS I'd be looking for a big ball carrying lock and a centre with some serious go forward and skills.

by Bathite Wed 03 Jul 2013, 5:07 pm

I didn't understand, that why I said so, but now it is clear. I get that you mean the impact compared to a new signing, 2013 vs 2014.

by Poorfour Wed 03 Jul 2013, 6:00 pm

But Quins' strategy is not to "improve" the 1st XV through new signings. The strategy is based on continuity: development of the existing pool of players, and bringing through new academy kids, supplemented with the occasional big signing.

Assuming that PD-J can do the required job at TH (not a given, but not a non-starter either), the 1st XV are demonstrably capable of winning the AP, because they already have. JJ aside, we have not lost any players of note, while Tigers and Saints have been replacing senior departing players. As for Sarries, I don't know how they do it and stay under the cap. Whatever the "something special" is, I would love to be able to match it.

Back to the question of whether the new boys will have a material impact on the First XV. Firstly, the answer is almost certainly yes. Since our ND1 season, Robshaw, Brown, JTH, Lowe, Robson, Williams and Marler have all emerged from the academy and become first team fixtures in 1-2 seasons. It's harder for the new kids coming through because the players they have to displace are younger and better, but Buchanan, Matthews, Trayfoot, Wallace and Smith have all shown it's possible. Buchanan's gone from 4th to 1st choice and the England fringe in 2 seasons. Matthews is already adequate cover for both Robson and Kohn (no mean feat when you consider their different skill sets) and should only improve. Botica is a better kicker and defender than Evans (though lacks the electric running game). Add to that Collier, Sinckler, Twomey, Clifford, Stuart, Walker, OLH.

Secondly, the question for me is more whether the squad as a whole can maintain performances over a whole season. We hit a bad patch after the 6Ns last year, when it was clear that the younger players weren't experienced enough and the senior players were worn out. I expected something like that (same sort of thing happened to Sarries after their AP win), but the greater experience in the squad should pay off this year (we were not at the races against Sarries, at home to Exeter or in the second half of the semi, but our other losses were in winnable games).

Of course we don't know how any of this will pan out. Nothing is certain in sport except Leicester's presence in the AP Final.

by What goes on tour Wed 03 Jul 2013, 8:46 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:Casson and Lowe are first team regulars and neither are that young.

Casson and Lowe are both 23, I'd call that pretty young.

by formerly known as Sam Wed 03 Jul 2013, 9:16 pm

Fair does I thought they were a couple of years older than that. If Quins can get a centre combination established and kept fit then they'd solve a good chunk of last years problems.

by Poorfour Wed 03 Jul 2013, 10:02 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:Fair does I thought they were a couple of years older than that. If Quins can get a centre combination established and kept fit then they'd solve a good chunk of last years problems.

The real trick will be to combine JTH, Casson, Lowe and Hopper as the situation demands. Oh, and to keep Casson fit. Lowe, by the way, has already racked up about 100 first team games - amazing considering his age.

by **Notch** Wed 03 Jul 2013, 10:12 pm

Does anyone know when the Pro12 fixtures are due to be announced?

by ScarletSpiderman Wed 03 Jul 2013, 10:16 pm

Notch wrote:Does anyone know when the Pro12 fixtures are due to be announced?

Not too sure but I think it was early to mid august last season.

by formerly known as Sam Thu 04 Jul 2013, 8:27 am

I dunno Poorfour, Quins chopped and changed quite a bit last season and that led to a real lack of midfield continuity. A 10 needs know his 12s game inside out and vice versa, that's half the problem the Lions backs have. Keeping a 10,12,13 combo for a length of time gives the backs a better platform to operate from. Rotation to spread the game time aside Sarries and Tigers look much better when their preferred combinations are in place.

by HongKongCherry Thu 04 Jul 2013, 9:11 am

Am I right in saying the Jeff fixtures will be released today?

by **Notch** Thu 04 Jul 2013, 10:09 am

ScarletSpiderman wrote:
Notch wrote:Does anyone know when the Pro12 fixtures are due to be announced?

Not too sure but I think it was early to mid august last season.

Apparently it's mid-July- exact date not yet confirmed.

by george doors Thu 04 Jul 2013, 10:13 am

logansrun38 wrote:Quins will be in the bottom third.

I wouldnt put money on that prediction, infact do put money on it, I will take your bet old chap. ( candy from a baby springs to mind )

by Poorfour Thu 04 Jul 2013, 10:57 am

formerly known as Sam wrote:I dunno Poorfour, Quins chopped and changed quite a bit last season and that led to a real lack of midfield continuity. A 10 needs know his 12s game inside out and vice versa, that's half the problem the Lions backs have. Keeping a 10,12,13 combo for a length of time gives the backs a better platform to operate from. Rotation to spread the game time aside Sarries and Tigers look much better when their preferred combinations are in place.

I don't think they were chopping and changing through choice, though. It seems clear that COS's preferred combination, with all players fit and in form, is Casson and Lowe (it's mine, too: Casson gives away little to JTH in defence and offers more variety in attack, and for all Hoppers' unpredictability I prefer Lowe's lines and his solid defence at 13). The problem last year was that Casson was injured half the time and was only able to last 50-60 minutes when he was fit. Lowe took most of the season to come back from his ankle injury on tour with England in SA the previous summer. As a result we had some odd combos forced upon us at times, including Hopper and Botica at 12.

I'm hoping that all four centres have had a decent pre-season and will start this term in better shape to see it through. If Casson can get a run of fitness to match his skills, I think he has a similar skill-set and vision to Twelvetrees.

by george doors Thu 04 Jul 2013, 11:04 am

Notch wrote:
ScarletSpiderman wrote:
Notch wrote:Does anyone know when the Pro12 fixtures are due to be announced?

Not too sure but I think it was early to mid august last season.

Apparently it's mid-July- exact date not yet confirmed.

by HongKongCherry Thu 04 Jul 2013, 11:10 am

Here's the fixture list for the Jeff
http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/fixtures.php

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:00 pm

beshocked wrote:Poorfour you talk about experience yet on the wings from example your 1st choice Monye and Williams are hardly spring chickens.

Where are these youngsters who you think can break into the Quins side? Who are the bolters?

I see an awful lot of secured spots for the likes of Care,Brown,Robshaw,Marler but not too many contenders to challenge them.

Which player for example do you think will see Quins kick onto the next level?

Sam JJ is good in the loose though right?

Chisholm, OLH, Walker, Wallace, Clifford, Trayfoot, Burns all have the potential to be better than the players mentioned above. Marler's replacement (likely Marfo) is a bit further away but Collier was solid last year

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:01 pm

But anyway, we'll see

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:06 pm

Poorfour wrote:But Quins' strategy is not to "improve" the 1st XV through new signings. The strategy is based on continuity: development of the existing pool of players, and bringing through new academy kids, supplemented with the occasional big signing.

Assuming that PD-J can do the required job at TH (not a given, but not a non-starter either), the 1st XV are demonstrably capable of winning the AP, because they already have. JJ aside, we have not lost any players of note, while Tigers and Saints have been replacing senior departing players. As for Sarries, I don't know how they do it and stay under the cap. Whatever the "something special" is, I would love to be able to match it.

Back to the question of whether the new boys will have a material impact on the First XV. Firstly, the answer is almost certainly yes. Since our ND1 season, Robshaw, Brown, JTH, Lowe, Robson, Williams and Marler have all emerged from the academy and become first team fixtures in 1-2 seasons. It's harder for the new kids coming through because the players they have to displace are younger and better, but Buchanan, Matthews, Trayfoot, Wallace and Smith have all shown it's possible. Buchanan's gone from 4th to 1st choice and the England fringe in 2 seasons. Matthews is already adequate cover for both Robson and Kohn (no mean feat when you consider their different skill sets) and should only improve. Botica is a better kicker and defender than Evans (though lacks the electric running game). Add to that Collier, Sinckler, Twomey, Clifford, Stuart, Walker, OLH.

Secondly, the question for me is more whether the squad as a whole can maintain performances over a whole season. We hit a bad patch after the 6Ns last year, when it was clear that the younger players weren't experienced enough and the senior players were worn out. I expected something like that (same sort of thing happened to Sarries after their AP win), but the greater experience in the squad should pay off this year (we were not at the races against Sarries, at home to Exeter or in the second half of the semi, but our other losses were in winnable games).

Of course we don't know how any of this will pan out. Nothing is certain in sport except Leicester's presence in the AP Final.

Also it was widely agreed (though opinions, rightly or wrongly, seem to have changed) that we won the AP not with any Star Players (except Evans) but with the way the team worked together as greater than the sum of its parts. Now apparently exactly the same team relies on star players. One of those assumptions must be/have been incorrect

by logansrun38 Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:22 pm

Beshocked, JJ gives away more penalties than any other player in Prem. You're welcome to him.

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:24 pm

Yes, Beshocked, like all of our players and ex-players and coaches and ex-coaches, he is terrible at rugby, right logan?

by logansrun38 Thu 04 Jul 2013, 2:38 pm

He is a penalty machine and has been for 2 seasons now.

Dont let FACTS get in the way of those Qunis tinted spectacles though.

by Sgt_Pooly Thu 04 Jul 2013, 3:51 pm

Can't see past Irish & Saracens for tail & top.

1. Saracens
2. Tigers
3. Saints
4. Quins
5. Bath
6. Exeter
7. Gloucester
8. Worcester
9. Wasps
10. Newcastle
11. Sale
12. Irish

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 4:57 pm

Fine, if your assertion made so confidently is correct then we won't miss him. Though I'm sure you'll manage to say that he is both a terrible player and going to be missed

by logansrun38 Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:09 pm

Well, I think Quins will be pleased to have a prop that isnt a penalty machine.

Easter gives nearly as many away too.

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:10 pm

That is true, Easter is a terrible prop

by logansrun38 Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:12 pm

I guess moving on from talking about one player to another is a little difficult for you to comprehend.

by Poorfour Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:12 pm

Well, I will miss JJ - but his impact on the pitch was very polarised did rather depend on how the referee interpreted his bind! That said, I will always remember him for some of his outrageous tackles - on more than one occasion he caught and steamrollered wingers. A man that big should not move that fast.

But... I think that a combination of the changing laws and the coaching team's ability to develop a successor will mean we may miss him more as a top bloke than as a linchpin of the scrum. We've not been great at hanging on to tight heads in the past, so I look forward to seeing if we can hang on to at least our homegrown ones.

by logansrun38 Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:13 pm

Collier and Sinkler are good prospects

by ChequeredJersey Thu 04 Jul 2013, 5:17 pm

and I guess that flippancy is a little hard for you to understand as I was clearly taking the urine Wink

by **profitius** Mon 15 Jul 2013, 11:39 pm

Who do you think will be the biggers movers (up and down) in the league compared to last season?

In the rabo going up could be Munster or Edinburgh. Going down I'd say Scarlets.

by formerly known as Sam Mon 15 Jul 2013, 11:58 pm

I still fancy Sale to yoyo back up.

by **George Carlin** Tue 16 Jul 2013, 4:42 am

Cannot look beyond any of the Big Three (Tigers, Sarries, Quins) for the Jeff. Still gobsmacked that Saints took it all the way to the final last year - well done to them - just goes to show that a less talented team who just want to win more can accomplish huge things.

In the Robocop, I would of course take my Glasgow Warriors side to make the playoffs again - they have kept their entire team, will have developed the smarts to go with the skills and crucially have layers of quality throughout the entire squad. They are one international quality 10 away from winning the whole jamboree.

They should be joined by an Ulster side which by now is a coherent wrecking ball of a side with a very talented young midfield, Leinster (because they're Leinster) and either Munster or Scarlets. Slightly surprised Scarlets are being predicted to slide - presumably because both North and Fenby have been poached. Munster have lost some legends in the close season, though and need to re-invent themselves.

by beshocked Tue 16 Jul 2013, 11:38 am

You are entitled to your opinion of course George Carlin but I disagree.

I think you are very much underrating Saints. I wouldn't say they are a less talented side than the likes of Sarries and Leicester. They just haven't had the same consistency throughout the season.

They beat Ulster at Ravenhill and Sarries at Allianz Park - two tough away fixtures.

North and Corbisiero are two very strong additions.

I rate them higher than Quins currently.

We don't yet know what effect injuries and fatigue will have on the season. Tigers and Saracens in particular could well suffer. I know that Sarries will have a few injury worries.

by Guest Tue 16 Jul 2013, 12:08 pm

Corbs is only a strong addition if he's fit and available. He's carrying an injury which may or may not limit his game time, and will be away with England for parts of the season too. But even without all that, Tonga'huia, who he's replacing, averaged around 30 games a season for Saints as I understand it, Corbs has never come close to that for Irish.

As I posted on the LI forum, since February 2011 Corbs has won 18 England caps, and appeared 4 times for the Lions. Over the same period, he only appeared 24 times for Irish. I'm not doubting his passion or work ethic, as those stats are due to unfortunate timing with injuries etc, but if Saints are unlucky, they may end up paying out what I assume is a considerable amount of their salary cap to a player who rarely plays, and only seems to be fit again in time to be called up for International Duty, which is the LI experience over the last few seasons.

by **George Carlin** Tue 16 Jul 2013, 12:13 pm

beshocked wrote:You are entitled to your opinion of course George Carlin but I disagree.

I think you are very much underrating Saints. I wouldn't say they are a less talented side than the likes of Sarries and Leicester. They just haven't had the same consistency throughout the season.

They beat Ulster at Ravenhill and Sarries at Allianz Park - two tough away fixtures.

North and Corbisiero are two very strong additions.

I rate them higher than Quins currently.

We don't yet know what effect injuries and fatigue will have on the season. Tigers and Saracens in particular could well suffer. I know that Sarries will have a few injury worries.

I don't think I'm underrating Saints this season, Beshocked old socks - I just think that having lost Mooj, Tiny, Lamb, PDJ, May and Cato it is much more difficult to predict how they're going to get on. Nobody would deny that Saint George and Corbs are first team starters and they'll make an impact. Well, Corbs needs to stop getting injured, but he should make an impact. I actually think there's an argument the best Saints acquistion will be Fotuali'i.

by Jenifer McLadyboy Tue 16 Jul 2013, 12:34 pm

George Carlin wrote:
Saint George and Corbs are first team starters and they'll make an impact. Well, Corbs needs to stop getting injured, but he should make an impact. I actually think there's an argument the best Saints acquistion will be Fotuali'i.

These 3 Lads are the reason I would fear Nhamp in the HC this year.

Corbs basically won the 3rd test on his own (If you want to look at it that way) Rarely do you see a loose head making as big a difference in the scrum. He is decent in the loose too.

North is a beast at the top level. (Can go missing at club level though)

PhotoAhLeeHe was one of the best players in the Rabo last year. If they can get that lot on the pitch regularly they will be a force.

Who is replacing Mujati btw?

by beshocked Tue 16 Jul 2013, 12:36 pm

Mawhis we'll see.

George Carlin I agree losing those front row options could well be a problem but I don't see Lamb,May and Cato as big losses for Saints.

The other parts of the squad still look strong.

Saints back three will be North,Elliot,Foden - pretty decent I would say.

You say Fotauili is a good player. That will bolster their backline and give them another option next to Dickson.

Plus with Mujati and PDJ leaving it gives Mercey a potential opportunity at tight head. He could be crucial to Saints' prospects. Also they have young prospect Waller too on the loosehead side.

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