Men's Final (Preview and Match Thread) - Djokovic V Murray

[CaledonianCraig]

Tomorrow will see the meeting of the World No.1 and World No.2 in the final. I really am in two minds about how it will pan out so I will try to look at the various ways it could go.

I will fancy Andy's chances strongly if his serve operates as well as it did against Janowicz but we know Djoko is a far superior returner. The rule of thumb between the pair is that the better server gets the result but we shall see if this is the case tomorrow.

Aggression is also key and Andy must be prepared to get his attacks in first and put Djokovic under pressure. If Andy lapses into bouts of passiveness as he can then he is asking for trouble and will hand the initiative to Novak and quite probably lose the match.

In my opinion and stats suggest as well that Andy is the better/more natural grass court player so that gives him an edge. On the other hand thus far at this Wimbledon I would say Novak has been more consistent so that works in his favour. That is why this is so tight to call in my opinion.

I am hoping that last year's pain Andy had to suffer in defeat will inspire him to do what it takes to avoid more heartbreak and push him over the winning line tomorrow. This could go either way and I just hope for the neutral that it is a classic match and no doubt the best player will win on the day. Enjoy the final.

Craig

[hawkeye]

But what role do you think the crowd will play? Djokovic isn't good when the crowd are against him and has even been known to lose it a bit. But he must know what to expect this time. A final crowd is very different to earlier rounds due to the way tickets are allocated at Wimbledon. Will it be similar to last years Wimbledon or last years Olympics? It could make all the difference.

[CaledonianCraig]

I don't think the crowd bothers him at all to be honest. As I understand it (I was workingso missed his semi) but the crowd were largely for Del Potro and Novak still pulled through. Largely, in his other slam finals he has played big crowd favourites Rafa and Roger and got favourable results against them without any problem.

By the way I also don't think the Djokovic marathon against Del Potro will have any bearing either. We all know Djokovic can play two marathon back-to-back matches to win a slam if needed.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Yeah Djokovic will be fine on the fitness front you would think, I mean look what he did at the Aussie Open a few years back wit a 5 hour semi followed by a 6 hour final

Murray can't afford periods where he is really really off colour like he had against Verdasco and Janowicz. Or else the match will be gone

[socal1976]

Good analysis Craig, really have to agree with pretty much all of it. The guy who serves better as in most big matches should win, it sounds simplistic but that about explains it. I also agree that murray can't be so quick to accept the role of the counterpuncher and allow Novak's early hitting to drive him back and make him principally defensive. We know if it comes down to Djokovic being allowed to hit shots with the match on the line he probably will do it. Murray has to be very aggressive with the serve and the first forehand.

[mthierry]

I expect Nole will be the more assertive player. I've been more impressed with him in this tournament so I believe he'll win.

[CaledonianCraig]

Yes I agree with that Olly. Both players are superb returners of serve (probably the best in the world) that, I believe, is why the best server will have one hand on the trophy tomorrow.

[bogbrush]

I hope for Murray but don't quite see it.

Murrays best hope is make it very tight and let Novak get nervous, like he did in Paris. He can choke like any of them, they all do it.

It'll be long. Very long. Even if it's in straight sets.

[invisiblecoolers]

Djokovi's calmness and composure is very scary, he seems ultra relaxed for the task ahead, when I saw his pre-match finals interview he looks almost emotionless robot, he is the Ivan Drago of Tennis, if Murray doesn't go with the Rocky attitude he would be crushed like Apollo Creed.

But saying all I guess Time has come for Murray to reap rewards, I still do believe he will take the task in his hands and end the drought.

Before tournament I had 75-25 in Murray's favour, not considering the form of both players and the calmness of Djokovic I would say 52-48 in Murray's favour. 

[CaledonianCraig]

Agreed ic. A lot depends on everything falling into place for Andy. I think of Andy as a tennis player who doesn't always bring best parts of his game onto court all at the same time so he must do that tomorrow. Whereas Roger and Rafa and lately Novak can do that far easier.

[time please]

My head says that Djokovic will win this because he is just a consistently much better player I think but I think Murray steps onto court believing he can beat Djokovic, and that is a good proportion of the battle.

Murray has to have the courage to go for his second serve.

[Bull]

Djokovic. cant stand Murray.

[bogbrush]

Djokovic. cant stand Murray.

They're good friends actually, Murray supported him at the 2007 USO Final.

[banbrotam]

Yeah Djokovic will be fine on the fitness front you would think, I mean look what he did at the Aussie Open a few years back wit a 5 hour semi followed by a 6 hour final

Murray can't afford periods where he is really really off colour like he had against Verdasco and Janowicz. Or else the match will be gone

Neither can Djoko avoid some of the mediocre spells he had against Del Potro

I don't quite get this why Murray 'off colour' spells will be fatal - but nobody seems to have considered Novak's brain fades in the second set against Berdych and quite a lot on Friday

Both often go walkabouts when playing each other and those matches are always close. Of course if one is on his game and he other isn't then there's only one result

I honestly though, didn't think Nole seemed himself on Friday

[lydian]

It's going to be a scorcher out there today...plus long ralleys...may the fittest man win

[CaledonianCraig]

It's going to be a scorcher out there today...plus long ralleys...may the fittest man win

Or more importantly and as the case will be - may the best man win.

[Danny_1982]

I don't know about the other Murray fans, but I'm looking forward to this one much more than any of his other slam finals.

Up until last years USO, I found his finals nerve wracking to watch. Since he now has a slam in the bank, I find them a lot easier to watch. I know that he won't mentally fold nowadays either. He might not win, but it won't be because the moment is too big for him.

I went for Novak before the tournament and I'm sticking with that. But I hope I'm wrong and if Murray serves well he has a real chance. If it goes to a fifth set in this heat then I think Murray might have the edge. As fit as Novak is, that semi must have an impact.

I know he survived similar marathons in Australia to win, but those weren't played in the hot sun. Should be a cracker whoever wins.

[CaledonianCraig]

Agreed Danny. Andy has a slam win now and nobody can ever ever take that away from him. The pressure may not be so intense apart from home pressure to win Wimbledon but as we know he handled it very well at the Olympics. He knows he can beat Djokovic in a slam final which must be a boost and that he beat Novak in the Olympics semi at Wimbledon last year in straight sets.

We all know what a fantastic battler Novak is so it certainly will not be easy and if Andy is to lose it is no disgrace that it comes against the world No.1. Bring it on.

[Danny_1982]

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet... Everyone assumes that Novak might have a little less energy after the semi and the heat will favour Murray if it becomes a war of attrition like it often does between these two...

But remember the US open against Lopez, played in stifling heat during the midday sun. Murray really struggled physically and was a little fortunate to win. Lopez actually won more points, and it's a match up Murray usually finds comfortable!

So it's not a certainty that Murray will have a physical advantage. If I think back to all Murray's slam surprise defeats, Verdasco, Tsonga, Wawrinka.... All years ago admittedly, but all in hot daytime conditions.

They both have a history of struggling in heat.

[barrystar]

I think Djoko is the marginal favourite, but if they both play to their potential it's extremely tough to call.  Murray has the advantage of a surface that he is more natural on and home support.  Djoko has the advantage of a superior record in big matches and a game which due to its lack of weaknesses is very difficult to target for a break down.

I agree that Murray's finals are far less stressful now he has a slam on the board.  He has the extreme bad fortune always to be presented with an all-time great (Fed, or Djoko recently) or, at very least, a past slam winner (Djoko in Aus 2011) in his 7 finals so far.  There's never been any shame in losing to those opponents in a Slam Final.

That parallel with Lendl's career is perhaps one of the things that makes Lendl such a smart choice as coach.  Out of his 19 Slam Finals Lendl only twice faced an opponent who was in his first slam final (Pernfors and Mecir the first time), and only four times did he face an opponent who had not won a slam before (Pernfors, Mecir both times, Cash).  Otherwise he had to face guys who were, or were to become, multi-slam greats in his finals.   Fed, Djoko, and Nadal all had non-slam winners in their first slam finals - true that both Djoko and Nadal had to beat Fed in the semis to get there, but as others have said the final match itself when the rest of the venue is empty and the focus is on you makes a big difference.

[CaledonianCraig]

Superb points barry.  

I said pre-tournament that I wasn't sure that Andy was in the kind of form to win Wimbledon. Now hours away from the final I still stand by that. He has been brilliant in patches when he has needed to be. Novak, on the other hand, has been played at a higher consistency level this Wimbledon. Andy now needs more brilliance in his performance today and coupled with a serve like he displayed against Janowicz and this afternoon could be memorable for us Murray fans and a portion of British tennis fans.  

[bogbrush]

I think both guys are in great form and there are no excuses available to the loser. Both fit, both in their prime, arguably Murray has the advantage of no French and a less strenuous semi, but Djokovic has made his career on infinite fitness so that's no problem.

What bothers me about Murray is that I think he's just not quite as good as Djokovic. Just 96% of him all round. I think he needed the wind in the US.

He needs to be spot on and for Djokovic to not enjoy the grass. It's very possible, I think maybe 25%. I hope he does.

[barrystar]

What bothers me about Murray is that I think he's just not quite as good as Djokovic.

I agree with that. The evidence shows that Murray is just a step down from Djoko; the gap has narrowed over the last couple of years and it is at its closest on faster surfaces, especially grass at SW19.

You'd pretty confidently back Djoko to beat Murray at Aus and RG, US is obviously in the balance, SW19 the same but slightly better for Djoko.

[Dave.]

Think Murray is slight favourite (not heavy!), due to it being on grass, and its being hot, which should speed the court up.

IC put it well though, Nole is the Ivan Drago of tennis. It'll be a battle out there, hope Murray wins!

[NickisBHAFC]

Like i say if Murray doesn't win Wimbledon this year he never will. Major chance for him today, that said he is up against World number 1. It will be a very good game thats for sure.

Whats everyone plans today?

Going for a Wimbledon Final BBQ with some friends today, the sun is out, should be a great day

[Andy11]

Has anyone else noticed the decline of Novak's DTL backhand. I noticed it first at the 2012 australian open final. Admittedly I only watch the slams so perhaps a more frequent watcher can say whether they agree with this. Also, he seems to be suffering from Federer syndrome on break point opportunities. Having said this, I fully expect him to lift the trophy today.

[CaledonianCraig]

Out of the 18 of their previous matches only five of them have been won by the player with the poorer first serve stats. Three of those time were Murray wins and two of them Djokovic wins.

[Fernando]

Should be a good game today, If Murray is ever going to win it this year has been his best chance so far.

Prediction
Murray 7-5/4-6/7-6/6-3

[CaledonianCraig]

Agreed it is his best chance to date but remember he is playing the world No.1. Who knows? In a year or twos time he may reach the final and be faced with a player ranked lower and that would then become is best chance (if he doesn't do it this year).

[bogbrush]

Should be a good game today, If Murray is ever going to win it this year has been his best chance so far.

Prediction
Murray 7-5/4-6/7-6/6-3

Dammit, too late to repeat the very successful one I did for the RG semi on scores!  

[bogbrush]

Agreed it is his best chance to date but remember he is playing the world No.1. Who knows? In a year or twos time he may reach the final and be faced with a player ranked lower and that would then become is best chance (if he doesn't do it this year).

Yes.

But for Del Potro not quite doing it he nearly got a Bartoli.

[Fernando]

Should be a good game today, If Murray is ever going to win it this year has been his best chance so far.

Prediction
Murray 7-5/4-6/7-6/6-3

Dammit, too late to repeat the very successful one I did for the RG semi on scores!  

I wouldn't worry im never correct at the best of times 

[CaledonianCraig]

I was immensely impressed with Del Potro the other day. Surely, the best he has played since winning the US Open and that is great to see. It showed that he could be a possible Wimbledon winner one day.

[Dave.]

Yeah, I don't think he'll never have a better chance to win it - Federer and Nadal (off clay) are in decline. Granted they could win it again one day but that possibility diminishes every year. And of course, the new breed could crack through.

Novak is still the world number 1. Fed and Rafa may not be here but Nole is still "el hombre".

[banbrotam]

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet... Everyone assumes that Novak might have a little less energy after the semi and the heat will favour Murray if it becomes a war of attrition like it often does between these two...

But remember the US open against Lopez, played in stifling heat during the midday sun. Murray really struggled physically and was a little fortunate to win. Lopez actually won more points, and it's a match up Murray usually finds comfortable!

So it's not a certainty that Murray will have a physical advantage. If I think back to all Murray's slam surprise defeats, Verdasco, Tsonga, Wawrinka.... All years ago admittedly, but all in hot daytime conditions.

They both have a history of struggling in heat.

I've always made Andy the favourite, simply because I saw that the fortnight would have good weather and hence a fast Wimbledon like last years Olympics. I honestly think that Andy is better than Novak on the fastest surfaces. Equal on Medium fast. With Novak been better at all others

[CaledonianCraig]

A fair assessment banbrotam.  

[Born Slippy]

If both were playing well, then I would see Murray as the favourite on a grass court. He has more game on the surface and his movement is better. Novak's superior stamina doesn't come into it as much, as there will be a fair few short points. However, I'm unconvinced that Murray is in particularly good form here. He hasn't really played a top match all tournament. Given that, I'm giving the narrow edge to Novak.

[Tropicalfruiter]

I actually feel sorry for the Djoker. He will face a big pro-Murray hysteria, and even pure hatred if he dares to even think of lifting the trophy. This has very little to do with fitness and form, and much more to do with hysteria.

[CaledonianCraig]

I actually  feel sorry for the Djoker. He will face a big pro-Murray hysteria, and even pure hatred if he dares to even think of lifting the trophy. This has very little to do with fitness and form, and much more to do with hysteria.

Sorry but you are mistaking support for Andy as hatred for Djokovic which is just plain wrong. I mean do you honestly think if Novak does win Centre Court won't applaud and cheer him heartily and will boo him instead?

[Steffan]

Lets of Scottish have made their way down to Wimbledon and nice to see the English hare supporting him as well out in their numbers

[laverfan]

The Verdasco match was unexpected, given Murray's form, being down two sets and staring down the barrel.

If Djokovic wins the first set, no matter how close it is, it is tough to come back against Djokovic.

Listening to Cahill on ESPN, he thinks the match will be a extremely physical contest.

I expect a close five-set match.

[Tropicalfruiter]

I actually  feel sorry for the Djoker. He will face a big pro-Murray hysteria, and even pure hatred if he dares to even think of lifting the trophy. This has very little to do with fitness and form, and much more to do with hysteria.

Sorry but you are mistaking support for Andy as hatred for Djokovic which is just plain wrong. I mean do you honestly think if Novak does win Centre Court won't applaud and cheer him heartily and will boo him instead?

I think that there is such hysteria that love and hate are very close. Fear at Andy not grabbing the chance, can turn to rage and hate, even if this hate has an edge of pantomime villainy about it. This is mythic. This is the bear-pit of sport.
and I am savouring every last mad minute of it. Rule Britannia.

[CaledonianCraig]

No I say you are wrong. Hatred comes from people who have issues specifically towards one of the players and I don't get the gist that there is anything of that towards Novak. Any cheering of double faults and missed shots are by over-excited supporters, not what you want to see, but understandable in the heat of the moment. This s not down to any maliciousness though just more over-enthusiasm. If Novak wins Centre Court will stand as one to greet him as the champion.

[JubbaIsle]

Murray in 3.

7/6
7/5
6/4

There, I've said it....do I feel stupid? strangely not. I think the Murray serve will be the one tool he possesses that will beat Djokovic today.

[Steffan]

Alex Salmond in the crowd supporting his fellow Scot  

[JuliusHMarx]

Now is the time
Let not one sinew be unstretched
Would victory be sublime
Would defeat be so wretched
For oneself alone
Let not watchers be comfort nor distraction
Now, before it is gone
Now is the time for action

[Dave.]

Is it just me or does Rocket Rod look like Kinnock? That was Laver beside Milliband, yes?

[Danny_1982]

Signing off to watch the match. Enjoy everyone.

Come on Andy!!

[Jahu]

Go Andy Go.

[Chydremion]

Go Djoko go.

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