Why It's Worth Betting on an Australian Series Win

Have just gone out and put £20 on Australia to take the Ashes series. I got 4-1 and that will probably be the best odds for some time.
  The reason for this stupendous outlay of cash? I would just like to mention 1989, when Australia came here very much the underdog and smashed England 4-0. Twenty four years on, England are, IMHO, no where near as good as they think they are while Australia are far stronger than many think.
  I think England will struggle to bowl Australia out, especially if it stays hot and dry and the ball does not swing. Chris Rogers will strengthen their batting and I think Clarke is going to have an excellent series. Also, the arrival of Darren Lehman is very good news for Australia and pretty bad news for England.
  The Aussie new-ball and seam bowling could worry England, although their slow bowling looks thin. I've partly put this bet on to allay any disappointments when England fail to win.
  What would put my money at risk is the knowledge that if KP plays all five Tests he could well produce one or even two match-winning innings - cos that's what he's capable of. My overall pessimism is based on years of acute disappointment when it comes to the Ashes. My first Eng-Australia memories  - the 1958-59 series when England were described as one of the strongest sides to leave these shores. The result of the series ? - a 4-0 hammering.

England are a better side now than they were in 1989, add to that, Australia had a good batting line up, and of course Alderman. The 2013 Australian team have one world class batsman, plus a couple of decent ones. Their bowling looks good on paper, but we have Swann, and they have Lyon.

I'm expecting an England win, but it may be closer than some think.

Ian Botham doesn't think you'll be in the money.  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/23224877

I think Sir Fred might be right, you know. We're not half as good as many think we are, and the Aussies only lack in the spin department and in the fact that we have two truly world class batsmen in comparison to their one.

It's going to be bloody tight - can't really call it more than 50/50 at this stage. A lot will depend on the weather, as England have the mastery of James Anderson that cannot be rivalled by anything wearing the baggy green. With the current weather the raw pace of the Aussie bowlers might prove more effective.

Botham has been in the heat to long.

Hot and dry will surely favour England no? Swann vs Lyon is a no contest.

In fact, I can't think of any set of conditions that would favour the Aussies at the moment other than monsoons.

In all seriousness it may be closer than a lot of people have predicted, including myself, but England will be very dissappointed not to beat this Australian side.

I'd be very disappointed also if we didn't beat them over here. I think we'll lose at least one Test because our batting is still a bit brittle and this Aussie attack will be dangerous, especially if they get on a roll, but we should win 2/3/4-1.

It's closer to 50:50 when we go to Aus. They'll have had some poor time to decide what their best team is, Lehman will have had chance to make his mark and of course they will be at home. England will still be favourites, but that series will be very close. It is never easy going to Australia.

I'm mystified to be honest. England are clear favourites. I mean, let's just have a quick overview of England:

Cook - On his way to being England's greatest ever batsman = 'nuff said.
Root -  Inexperienced yes, but averaging over 40 in first class cricket and already has a test ton to his name.
Trott - Mr. Reliable. Averages 50.
KP - All the talent in the world. A stupendous attacking batsman. Often leads match-winning efforts.
Bell - Might not make the headlines as much as Cook or KP, but still averages 45, still has 17 test tons.
Bairstow - The supposed weak link in England's batting. Averages 45 in First Class cricket, so he can't be all bad!
Prior - The best wicketkeeper-batsman in test cricket.
Broad - A touch inconsistent, but can churn out match-winning efforts with the ball on his day. Can bat a bit as well.
Swann - The world's best Test spinner currently. Loves bowling to lefties in particular, of which there are a few in the Australian line-up. Can slog a few runs down the order as well.
Anderson - The best swing bowler in the world. Probably gives Australian batsman nightmares.
Finn - Averages under 30 wth the ball. The aggression in England's attack.

Probably 5 players there that would make a world XI currently - Cook, KP, Prior, Swann, and Anderson.

And in the wings:

Compton - Has a couple of Test tons to his name.
Taylor - Averages 48 in first-class cricket, not bad backup at all.
Ballance - Hasn't played for England yet, but has made a name for himself in first-class cricket where he averages 52. Might be worth considering in the event of injury/loss of form.
Bresnan - Bats a bit, bowls a bit. A safe pair of hands. Good control with the ball. Wouldn't be surprised if he starts on Wednesday.
Onions - Has Ashes experience, averages under 30 with the ball in Tests. Loves bowling against left-handers as well.
Tremlett - Stop-start test career, but has a test bowling average of 27. Took 17 wickets in the last Ashes series from 3 tests.

And not forgetting the leader, Andy Flower. In 4 years, under his leadership, England have:

Beaten Australia home and away.
Beaten India home and away.
Beaten the Windies, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand at home.
Drew with South Africa away.
Beaten Bangladesh home and away.

Can't see what all the fuss is about. England 3-0 easy, but don't rule out a 5-0. Just watch out for Clarke is all.

Five in the world XI?? Being South African, you understand why I have a problem with this statement? Two defo, but Kallis>KP, Ajmal>Swann (esp. Recently) and ABdV vs Prior is a toss-up

As for your prediction, it wouldnt suprise me, but I doubt it

If anything I think the Aussies will be hoping for swinging conditions more than us. A dry spinning pitch will suit us much much more than them.

England are the superior side. It all depends on how they play. Play well they win. Just off their game gives the Aussies a sniff

a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

KP_fan wrote:
and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

Traditionally yes there would be rain about, but there is no rain forecast for the next week here in the sunny East Mids. So a full 5 days play on a result ground, pretty sure there will be a winner in the first Test

If any England fan is feeling complacent then they should consider the bowlers England took to Australia for the 1958/59 series
Trueman
Statham
Tyson
Loader
Lock
Laker
Bailey

Batsman included May, Cowdrey and Graveney.

Result?- 4-0 to Australia. Nuff said

Duty281 wrote:I'm mystified to be honest. England are clear favourites. I mean, let's just have a quick overview of England:

Cook - On his way to being England's greatest ever batsman = 'nuff said.
Root -  Inexperienced yes, but averaging over 40 in first class cricket and already has a test ton to his name.
Trott - Mr. Reliable. Averages 50.
KP - All the talent in the world. A stupendous attacking batsman. Often leads match-winning efforts.
Bell - Might not make the headlines as much as Cook or KP, but still averages 45, still has 17 test tons.
Bairstow - The supposed weak link in England's batting. Averages 45 in First Class cricket, so he can't be all bad!
Prior - The best wicketkeeper-batsman in test cricket.
Broad - A touch inconsistent, but can churn out match-winning efforts with the ball on his day. Can bat a bit as well.
Swann - The world's best Test spinner currently. Loves bowling to lefties in particular, of which there are a few in the Australian line-up. Can slog a few runs down the order as well.
Anderson - The best swing bowler in the world. Probably gives Australian batsman nightmares.
Finn - Averages under 30 wth the ball. The aggression in England's attack.

Probably 5 players there that would make a world XI currently - Cook, KP, Prior, Swann, and Anderson.

And in the wings:

Compton - Has a couple of Test tons to his name.
Taylor - Averages 48 in first-class cricket, not bad backup at all.
Ballance - Hasn't played for England yet, but has made a name for himself in first-class cricket where he averages 52. Might be worth considering in the event of injury/loss of form.
Bresnan - Bats a bit, bowls a bit. A safe pair of hands. Good control with the ball. Wouldn't be surprised if he starts on Wednesday.
Onions - Has Ashes experience, averages under 30 with the ball in Tests. Loves bowling against left-handers as well.
Tremlett - Stop-start test career, but has a test bowling average of 27. Took 17 wickets in the last Ashes series from 3 tests.

And not forgetting the leader, Andy Flower. In 4 years, under his leadership, England have:

Beaten Australia home and away.
Beaten India home and away.
Beaten the Windies, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand at home.
Drew with South Africa away.
Beaten Bangladesh home and away.

Can't see what all the fuss is about. England 3-0 easy, but don't rule out a 5-0. Just watch out for Clarke is all.

Duty, an Australian might respond like this.
Shane Watson, back to his preferred opening position where he averages over 43, can take the attack to the bowlers, and is a much better option for the 5th bowler than anyone England have got.
Chris Rogers. Knows English conditions like the back of his hand, has more English experience than some of England's own youngsters have managed. Almost 20000 first class runs at an average of 50.
Ed Cowan, his average may not be all that great, but he has scored a tone against Steyn and co, and stuck it out in India against the Indian spinners.
Michael Clarke. Real world class batsman, has been in terrific form over the last couple of years, and can even win a test with his bowling at times.
Steven Smith. Averages over 40 in first class cricket, and showed in the recent India series that his batting at international level is also coming on. Can play spin really well, and thus negate Graeme Swann's impact in the middle order to an extent. Besides all that, he's a blond legspinner, and England can't play those!.
Brad Haddin. Is a senior member of the squad, and offer quite a bit with the bat and gloves besides some quality leadership.
James Faulkner. Is an up and coming all-rounder. Averages close to 30 with the bat, and under 23 with the ball in first class cricket, this series could be the making of him as a test cricketer.
Mitchell Starc. Many regard him as the next best left-arm quick after the great Wasim Akram. Can bat a bit as well.
Peter Siddle. Is an experienced bowler, and has done well against England in the past.
James Pattinson. Is one of the most exciting young fast bowlers in the world. Can bowl faster than any of England's bowlers, and has done really well in his test career so far.
Nathan Lyon. He may not be in Graeme Swann's league, but the English don't play spin all that well, and Lyon is a better bowler for all the experience he gained in India.
In the wings, Phillip Hughes has 3 test hundreds to his name. David Warner averages close to 40 in test cricket. Ryan Harris can bowl fast, and has a good test record. Uzman Khawaja has a very good first class record. Matthew Wade is young and has a decent test record already. And nothing works, Australia can call upon Fawad Ahmed, who's greatness with the ball has even prompted a constitutional change!.
I hope England win, and they are the favorites in my book as well. But I certainly don't hold England as very clear favorites, as their batting has a shaky feel about it, and Australia do have a quality bowling unit.

Or an Indian  

Well put msp!

Kallis better than KP? Not these days buddy. Think old Jark is past his best.

I would have AB and Amla above Kallis now. Not knocking the great man, just that he may be coming to the end of his career, although I still expect him to score the odd ton.

Its the all-round package that Kallis brings to the table that needs to be considered. After Garry Kirsten took over as SA coach, Kallis had a clearcut and streamlined role as a bowler, of some one bowling short, sharp spells, and he often managed a wicket or 2 in those spells. Not fair on KP to be compared with the all-rounder.

KP averaged, what? 50 last year? Kallis averaged 43, but then also averaged 30 with the ball, no mean feat considering thats the region Anderson and Broad hover around

kingraf wrote:Five in the world XI?? Being South African, you understand why I have a problem with this statement? Two defo, but Kallis>KP, Ajmal>Swann (esp. Recently) and ABdV vs Prior is a toss-up  

As for your prediction, it wouldnt suprise me, but I doubt it  

Prior is way better than ABDV.
I don't think anyone would take Kallis over KP.
Swann is a lot better than Ajmal in non-spinning conditions.

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

You're not neutral KP_fan, please don't pretend you are. You want Australia to win, I know that, you know that, the whole forum knows that.

Yeah, Swanny was real Tour de Force in non-spinning conditions against us, hey? Four sticks at nearly eighty...

Duty

Prior is the better keeper, but no contest with the bat.

So its down to what youre looking for, a toss up... Which is what I said...

Be it four or five, that's still four or five times as many in a world XI than Australia have - which is just Michael Clarke.

How on earth do these rankings work? England are behind India presently - it seems beating someone 6-1 in 8 Tests isn't enough these days!

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

You're not neutral KP_fan, please don't pretend you are. You want Australia to win, I know that, you know that, the whole forum knows that.

I don't know that I want Australia to win  
I want a close fight......even games......I do not care for end results.

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

You're not neutral KP_fan, please don't pretend you are. You want Australia to win, I know that, you know that, the whole forum knows that.

I don't know that I want Australia to win  
I want a close fight......even games......I do not care for end results.

Now, now KP_fan, all this sly sniping at England that you partake in leads me to no other conclusion.

VTR wrote:

KP_fan wrote:
and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

Traditionally yes there would be rain about, but there is no rain forecast for the next week here in the sunny East Mids. So a full 5 days play on a result ground, pretty sure there will be a winner in the first Test

from what I see on google weather search...Wed and Sat are forecasted to be rainy days

https://www.google.ch/webhp?hl=en&tab=ww#hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=weather+in+west+bridgford+nottingham&oq=weather+in+West+Bridgford&gs_l=hp.1.0.0j0i22i30l3.1749.4805.0.7432.12.7.0.5.5.1.318.1397.0j5j1j1.7.0....0...1c.1.19.psy-ab.eFej7pjh6ao&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.48705608,d.Yms&fp=5c042cfeea5f734c&biw=1093&bih=475

Its not four or five, its two, maybe three. Which was two, maybe three more than NZ, and they had you hanging on in NZ.

KP_fan wrote:

VTR wrote:

KP_fan wrote:
and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

Traditionally yes there would be rain about, but there is no rain forecast for the next week here in the sunny East Mids. So a full 5 days play on a result ground, pretty sure there will be a winner in the first Test

from what I see on google weather search...Wed and Sat are forecasted to be rainy days

https://www.google.ch/webhp?hl=en&tab=ww#hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=weather+in+west+bridgford+nottingham&oq=weather+in+West+Bridgford&gs_l=hp.1.0.0j0i22i30l3.1749.4805.0.7432.12.7.0.5.5.1.318.1397.0j5j1j1.7.0....0...1c.1.19.psy-ab.eFej7pjh6ao&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.48705608,d.Yms&fp=5c042cfeea5f734c&biw=1093&bih=475

Mostly for later in the day though, should still get a result in.

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

You're not neutral KP_fan, please don't pretend you are. You want Australia to win, I know that, you know that, the whole forum knows that.

I don't know that I want Australia to win  
I want a close fight......even games......I do not care for end results.

Now, now KP_fan, all this sly sniping at England that you partake in leads me to no other conclusion.

it is neither sly...nor snipping.
It's criticism and very forthright........for now for
1) blundered in dropping Compton
2) For looking for an excuse to bring Bresnan the trundler in
3) and off-cousre the whole KP gate

when australian was in mess of their dressing room chaos and indscipline...I was equally critical of them....as I am of West Indian and Indian teams also on relevant issues
You just don't seem to digest any criticism of the english team..

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

You're not neutral KP_fan, please don't pretend you are. You want Australia to win, I know that, you know that, the whole forum knows that.

I don't know that I want Australia to win  
I want a close fight......even games......I do not care for end results.

Now, now KP_fan, all this sly sniping at England that you partake in leads me to no other conclusion.

it is neither sly...nor snipping.
It's criticism and very forthright........for now for
1) blundered in dropping Compton
2) For looking for an excuse to bring Bresnan the trundler in
3) and off-cousre the whole KP gate

when australian was in mess of their dressing room chaos and indscipline...I was equally critical of them....as I am of West Indian and Indian teams also on relevant issues
You just don't seem to digest any criticism of the english team..

1) Good decision. Root is a natural opener and will develop into a world-class batsman. Compton made a duck yesterday I believe, and just isn't in Root's class.
2) Not a trundler, but a bowler who offers greater control for England. He could tie one end down, and let Andrson/Broad/Swann knock the Aussies over at the other end. Similar, I suppose to Ashley Giles in 2005. I wouldn't mind if we picked Bresnan tomorrow over Finn.
3) Resolved.

And Compton's made just 7 runs in the second innings, I hasten to add.

Hogan thinks you're wasting your money!

Cracking price on the Aussies, William Hill were doing England at evens today which was a fair price.

youre absolutely crazy at 4-1. yes its australia. but once upon a time nottingham forest won the european cup, doesnt mean if they played bayern munich today that 4-1 would be a good bet

more simply put, australia will not have players such as ponting, mcgrath, warne, ect

at 4/1 its not value enough.

I think at 6/1 i would take it mind.

Paddy are doing a good deal, back a player to be top innings runscorer for their team and if that player gets a century they will double his price. Pietersen is 4/1, Prior 11/1, obviously making them 8/1 and 22/1 respectively if they get a century.

I also think Australia over 320.5 runs at 5/6 in the first innings is not a bad bet at all.

how many teams score over 320 in tests v england!

I would take the under at that price

Just see it being flat and with Australia averaging 412 in their first innings' from 2012 I think you get a good bang for your buck, plus if they dont do it you can be happy cos its not a good score to top 

KP_fan wrote:a series win for Aus is giving an 4.33 times return
and a drawn series 8 times return  

I have stuck some money on a drawn series.....

and with approximately one day's cricket likely to be washed out at Trentbridge...my money for T1 is also on a draw.

The advantage for someone like us "neutral cricket lovers"...is that we can cut the emotions out of betting...and be more objective, then when the home nation is playing

Oh my gawd.....I went offline at 78-2...to come back and see the horrifying first inning total.
my adventurous looking darwn test and drawn series has fallen flat.
wish I had gone with my instinct in my bet.

you would have lost either way KP..

England still big favs for the series

mystiroakey wrote:you would have lost either way KP..

England still big favs for the series

this test match cannot end in a draw unless it rains for two full days.

the teams are looking more equal hence more chance of a series draw

so make your mind up!

You backed the draw! why the problem with the bet??

Now, now KP_fan, don't jump to conclusions like you did during the India-England test series!

mystiroakey wrote:so make your mind up!

You backed the draw! why the problem with the bet??

I hope that turns out to be a good bet

It wont KP- but if you think there is more of a chance at a draw then I am not sure what your point is!

Eng still big favs.. Its not even about quality. Its about the OZ set up. There just isnt one- They are in turmoil- No team wins a tough series in that position. Eng where in a similar(less than) situation v SA with KP gate - we had no chance at that point

we will see......atleast we have a good game of cricket so far.. also...I hope the rest of the series also turns out to be competive.

Eng is still a favorite,,hence  drawn series bet is a pure gamble lured by the 8 times return

A series over 5 tests is a tough draw outcome

you have 3 possible outcomes (0-0 , 1-1, 2-2) out of a possible of 21 different scores.. so if both teams are even you have a 3 in 21 shot- which is a 7-1 shot.

england are at home, england are ranked higher, england are more settled, aus have loads of changes, aus arnt in great form, aus have less quality.

8-1 is pushing value mate!

Even an ardent Aussie fan must now reckon a series win is a tad difficult. But I shall continue to wear my pessimist's hat by sticking with Australia.
I'm certainly getting money on them for Manchester. Surely they can't bat as badly as they did at Lord's ? Of course, I'm really hoping to lose my bet. Wonder what odds I'll get ? It was 3-1 at Lord's but reckon it could be 4-1 for Manchester.