Why It's Worth Betting on an Australian Series Win

First topic message reminder :

Have just gone out and put £20 on Australia to take the Ashes series. I got 4-1 and that will probably be the best odds for some time.
  The reason for this stupendous outlay of cash? I would just like to mention 1989, when Australia came here very much the underdog and smashed England 4-0. Twenty four years on, England are, IMHO, no where near as good as they think they are while Australia are far stronger than many think.
  I think England will struggle to bowl Australia out, especially if it stays hot and dry and the ball does not swing. Chris Rogers will strengthen their batting and I think Clarke is going to have an excellent series. Also, the arrival of Darren Lehman is very good news for Australia and pretty bad news for England.
  The Aussie new-ball and seam bowling could worry England, although their slow bowling looks thin. I've partly put this bet on to allay any disappointments when England fail to win.
  What would put my money at risk is the knowledge that if KP plays all five Tests he could well produce one or even two match-winning innings - cos that's what he's capable of. My overall pessimism is based on years of acute disappointment when it comes to the Ashes. My first Eng-Australia memories  - the 1958-59 series when England were described as one of the strongest sides to leave these shores. The result of the series ? - a 4-0 hammering.

well sirfred odds on an aussie series win is now going to be around 60/1

I would think you could get 9/2 on an aussie win in manc land..

So sadly even if Aus do pull this off- it wasnt worth betting pre series.. because there is much better value at the moment.

Undaunted by my continual lack of success at the bookies, I am now contemplating a bet on Australia for Manchester. Odds, I've found out, are 4-1.
Scenario - Aus bat first, Warner blazes away and then the England batting fails. England managed to muck up Perth in 2010/11 after being utterly dominant at Adelaide and they weren't too clever at Leeds in 2009, either.

I think we could see a draw.. Not banking on the teams- just the british weather. It has been too hot and sunny for too long!

mystiroakey wrote:I think we could see a draw.. Not banking on the teams- just the british weather. It has been too hot and sunny for too long!

 Been cloudy and windy down here since the weekend.

Even I have now given up on an Aussie series win but only cos some bloke has told me that it's now a mathematical impossibility. As if a simple thing like maths would have stood in the way of a really great team.
   Interestingly, my formula for an Aussie win at Manchester - bat first, make a big score and then England fail with the bat - kinda sorta nearly was right, although England didn't "fail enough".
  Better weather at Manchester and an Aussie toss win at Lord's and we could have been looking at 2-1 to Australia by now.

An Eng toss win at OT and we'd be looking at 3-1 quite possibly.

The toss can be such a huge factor.

I have to say I'm thinking Aussie will be winning them back at home.  Engs batting form has to improve, it's been ropey.

I see espn think they have the better bowling resources to last the course too http://www.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2013/content/story/649565.html

Haven't yet seen too much to be scared but at home they'll be dangerous.  Having said that, they do seem to ignore eng having any bowling depth at all (the fact Tremmers, Onions, Broad, Finn etc all provide backup to Anderson) and seem to ignore the spin differences too.

TBBaggins - well I agree that England will be presented with a big task in Australia this winter. Don't think Aus can count on Cook failing as often as he has this summer, though.
He seems to bat better away from home and has had a couple of immense overseas series (Australia last time and India last winter).
Main thing is that this England side is not scarred by losing, while only Clarke for Australia can recall an Ashes victory.

Australia will be still very up for getting a 2 2. They will still be for this big time.

its not just about the tiny cup.