Did Nadal lose his chance at number 1 with his loss at wimbeldon?

For purposes of this conversation assume that Nadal will be relatively healthy throughout the year. Although in fairness it has been some time that he has finished an indoor season. Still assuming that Nadal received nearly zero points in two of the 4 slams this season that unless he wins the USOpen he is probably mathematically out of it for the year end #1. With all that we have heard about Novak's loss Djokovic did cut Nadal's point lead by 60 percent and is just 700 points behind Nadal with no more clay court events remaining the rest of the season. Nadal historically has even when healthy underperformed in indoor events and outdoor hardcourt events in comparison to the damage he usually does earlier in the year. Now for the second half of the year the surfaces favor Djokovic.

This may be little consolation to Djokovic as Murray has now emerged as a real contender to the year end #1 being just 1200 points off Djokovic in the points race. Still Novak has a much better chance of holding off murray who is more proficient indoors and on hard as Nadal seemingly has of holding off Djokovic. I guess a bright spot to this wimbeldon for Djokovic is how basically Federer and Nadal may have eliminated themselves with their poor performances for the year end #1, while Djokovic strengthened his position with another deep run in a slam. The only realistic contender for surpassing a healthy djokovic is murray, and Murray will have a tough task a head of him. Even winning the USO won't put him completely clear if Djokovic reaches the finals and does well in the other events. If Novak wins the USO or the year end championships he has to be a strong favorite for year end #1 and probably has a relatively good inside track on it. His position via the year end#1 race is much better after wimbeldon than before it.

Might be, but it's pretty clear that Murray is getting the upper hand in their rivalry. The only big event where Djokovic won was the AO, where Murray had a tough 5-setter against Fed while Djokovic had a walk-over semi. Murray clearly ran out of steam in that final.
Andy beat Novak at the Olympics, the US Open and now Wimbledon.

Murray has the upper hand right now, but things change pretty quickly. Last time people were saying that Novak won 3 in a row against him.

The way I see it, 2 top players have the ability to beat each other and it's all about who does it on the day.

As for Rafa, if past HC performances are anything to go by then he may have lost his impetus for YE no 1. But he may surprise us all.

I think its dependent on the USO, if he wins he might have the momentum to keep fighting for the rest of the season. He loses, even if he gets more points than Nole and Andy, I think he will mentally check out.

Although it does speak of how poor Nole has been outside of slams that he is trailing a guy with 90pts for Wimby, 0 for AO, and 0 for Miami.

Yes he did. Djokovic is miles ahead and looking very good for year end Number 1 again. Remains to be seen how Nadal performs on hard courts this year...

prostaff85 wrote:Might be, but it's pretty clear that Murray is getting the upper hand in their rivalry. The only big event where Djokovic won was the AO, where Murray had a tough 5-setter against Fed while Djokovic had a walk-over semi. Murray clearly ran out of steam in that final.
Andy beat Novak at the Olympics, the US Open and now Wimbledon.

And Novak didn't have a tough five setter against Del Po at wimbeldon? Same logic applies to the Novak loss at wimbeldon. Murray had just lost the last three, so with one win he now has the upper hand in the rivlarly?

kingraf wrote:I think its dependent on the USO, if he wins he might have the momentum to keep fighting for the rest of the season. He loses, even if he gets more points than Nole and Andy, I think he will mentally check out.

I don't know if I see Nadal winning the USO or playing well in the indoor season. I mean it has been so long since he has played through that part of the season I think it is hard to expect him on past results to turn more points than Djokovic, especially in light of how hard he worked in the clay court season again. To me he needed a good wimbeldon to be year end #1 and he didn't get it, it was monumental opportunity to cut into Novak's lead in the 52 week rankings but it ended in disaster.

Im not saying I see him winning, what I am saying, is that barring a USO win, I cant see Nadal bothering at all with the indoors.
Even if he got Semis, and Nole got knocked out Rd1, I cant see Nadal playing the Swing with any effort, barring a USO win.

I said in another thread, that I would say that out of that top 3 in the race, the player that wins the US Open (unless it's not one of those 3), will win the Race.

We don't know how Rafa is going to fare. Indian Wells shows hope and the fact by the time he makes his debut in Canada, he'll have only played once in approximately 7-8 weeks, he should be reasonably well rested. But we just don't know. I have this feeling and I am welcome to be called up on it afterwards, that as soon as he reaches a certain level of player around the QF, possibly the round before he may be vulnerable.

Murray's record off clay this season has been very good, with 4 tournament wins, a losing final, and a quarter-final at Indian Wells. Around his two big wins from now on last year, it was actually a pretty dodgy time. It will interesting to see if Wimbledon has any impact on him.

Djokovic, is well Djokovic, but amongst his big performances and results this year have been a few puzzling losses.

I don't know who will be #1, but I'm certain that it's one of those 3 they'll have won the US Open.

kingraf wrote:I think its dependent on the USO, if he wins he might have the momentum to keep fighting for the rest of the season. He loses, even if he gets more points than Nole and Andy, I think he will mentally check out.

Whoever among the Top 4 barring Ferrer win the USO will most probably end up as the No.1.

I will bet my house Djoko won't win the WTF, WTF 2013 gonna be won by Murray/Nadal , I won't be surprised if Nadal wins his first WTF of his life . 

I still back Murray to be No.1 for the year end 2013, Djoko gonna lose in USO before semis. Murray doesn't have much points to defend in Moger's cup nor in Cincy, he will win one of them and if Rafa takes the other one Djoko will rapidly slide from the top, for the best part I haven't thought much about Fed and Del Po as of yet, both of them will be the dark horse and will win a masters between them, Del Po most probaly will win either Shanghai or Paris.

Who wants my crystal ball  

I don't know about your crystal ball, but I certainly won't be putting any money on Nadal to win the WTF.  

I really don't know what to make of the YE#1 race this year.

My hunch is that Rafa's low score at Wimbledon has probably ruled him out. Although he still has the YTD lead, I have doubts that he will play enough tournaments to hold on. I suspect the chances of him even competing at all four of Canada, Cincy, Shanghai and Paris are quite low. Maybe if he wins USO and does well at WTF he might take it.

Novak is an enigma this year. On paper, he is nicely poised, only 700 pts or so off number 1 with his strongest part of the season to come.

I don't however see any reason for assuming that he will rack up loads of points over this period based on the season to date. It has included odd defeats that you wouldn't expect against lower ranked players. Equally worrying, he has blown great opportunties against his main rivals. 4-2 up up in the 5th against Rafa and loses. 4-1 in the 2nd and 4-2 in the third v Andy and loses both sets. Something is not quite working for him and I suspect it's something in his head.

Andy is ticking along nicely and I think has a very decent chance of a late surge to number 1. The big question for me is will winning Wimbledon take his eye of the ball for a while? After winning USO last year, the rest of season felt like the day after Lord Mayor's parade. He didn't rise to those heights again for some time (in fact, I'd say Wimbledon is the first we've seen of him somewhere near his best since USO. Despite the good results, I don't think he was great in AO and Miami).

If I had to pick one of them, I'd say Novak but it's far from clear cut.

Murdoch - yeah good point with Murray. Most players have a dip after winning their first slam, hence why nobody has ever won their first 2 slams back to back.

How can someone be as hungry after achieving their life's dream? Normally the second slam doesn't have that potential to bring about a dip... But his second slam was the holy grail, the home slam, one of the biggest moments in British sport.

The emotion of that might take a toll. A dip would not be a huge surprise. Equally the pressure is now completely off him and he might soar. It will be very interesting to see how he does over the summer.

For what it's worth, my money is on Novak for YE number 1.

I think Nadal will do really well for the rest of the year, Wimbledon was just one tournament. I think Nadal is one of the favourites for the US open and I've never really been convinced by Djokovic.

How is murray getting upper hand in Novak rivalry. Novak leads 11-8 and leads 3-2 in slam meetings.

Murray is better on grass / wimbeldon, correct.
Djokovic is far superior at French open / never lost to Murray on clay
At Oz open, Djokovic has won all 3 meetings
US open, Murray won the one meeting though Djokovic has a better record at the event. Also wind really did influence that US open win

I dont get how this results in Murray getting upper hand?? At most, Murray has the edge at Wimbledon, never even at US open and Novak definite favourite when meeting in Oz or French. Also before that wimbledon win, I believe novak had won the previous 3 meetings.

Full marks to Murray for his win recently but people get so carried away with results. If Novak suddenly wins US open, people will be saying how he is unbeatable again. Wish people would get a grip

Please quantify the wind remark please? If the wind bugged Novak so much how in the name of hell did he manage to come back from two sets to nil down??

I think he somewhat adjusted as the match went on but for the first two sets he was absolute pants. He never plays well in the wind, did you not see his 1st set against Ferrer in the semi finals and then the dramatic difference once they came back following day.

Djokovic-Murray really must be the new Fedal if threads diverge off into who is better between them!

When Murray served for the match in Shanghai, it felt like he'd closed the gap, but since Djokovic won that and then next 2, I think he has the upper hand other than on grass. If I'd to put money on a winner between them, I'd pick Djokovic every time. That said, he's not been as consistent this year even against the field. Last year, didn't he have some impressive record like never losing before a semi final in any tournament? It wouldn't surprise me if he lost early in either Montreal or Cincy, but I expect him in the final at the US Open.

Nadal? Hmmm, who knows? I don't think he'll play both Montreal and Cincy nor Paris. Maybe his best shot for no.1 is for Djokovic & Murray to split the remaining big points in the US & Asia evenly and the indoor points to go elsewhere (Fed?).

slashermcguirk wrote:I think he somewhat adjusted as the match went on but for the first two sets he was absolute pants. He never plays well in the wind, did you not see his 1st set against Ferrer in the semi finals and then the dramatic difference once they came back following day.

Well that is your opinion but don't buy it as Novak maged to win two sets from two sets down. Now if Murray had won in straight sets - say 6-4 6-3 6-2 then I'd agree. And we have seen Andy can beat Novak (without any wind) last Saturday. Novak's big problem is within himself as in the last few months we have seen his 'Ironman/Superman' tag dented with uncharacteristic dips in his game.

Turron wrote:I don't know about your crystal ball, but I certainly won't be putting any money on Nadal to win the WTF.  

Neither did people put money on Murray to win the Wimbledon, unless Rafa's form deteriorates raplidly he is a strong contender for the WTF.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Please quantify the wind remark please? If the wind bugged Novak so much how in the name of hell did he manage to come back from two sets to nil down??

Slasher is just another die hard Nole fan . 

CaledonianCraig wrote:Please quantify the wind remark please? If the wind bugged Novak so much how in the name of hell did he manage to come back from two sets to nil down??

because he isn't a normal player, and the wind died down a lot in the later sets.  Go watch it again and listen to the commentary. Also, who knows how differently Novak and Murray played.  You can't simply deduce that the wind had nothing to do with it because he came back into it.  That's just plain illogical. Of course you aren't going to accept it because you have the blinkers super-glued to your eyes.

Maybe but with no points lost in the Olympics and USO he'll give it a go. No idea at all what to expect from Rafa at the USO could easily go very well or very badly indeed. Murray will be looking to play Rafa I imagine as he should win that match on Hard Court right now and Rafa is the one of the big 4 Murray hasn't beaten in a slam recently

ryan86 wrote:I said in another thread, that I would say that out of that top 3 in the race, the player that wins the US Open (unless it's not one of those 3), will win the Race.

We don't know how Rafa is going to fare. Indian Wells shows hope and the fact by the time he makes his debut in Canada, he'll have only played once in approximately 7-8 weeks, he should be reasonably well rested. But we just don't know. I have this feeling and I am welcome to be called up on it afterwards, that as soon as he reaches a certain level of player around the QF, possibly the round before he may be vulnerable.

Murray's record off clay this season has been very good, with 4 tournament wins, a losing final, and a quarter-final at Indian Wells. Around his two big wins from now on last year, it was actually a pretty dodgy time. It will interesting to see if Wimbledon has any impact on him.

Djokovic, is well Djokovic, but amongst his big performances and results this year have been a few puzzling losses.

I don't know who will be #1, but I'm certain that it's one of those 3 they'll have won the US Open.

This is true, unlike in past years Novak has not been as consistent in the masters and non-slam events. He has seemed to not be focused during some puzzling losses, the most bizarre being losing to his pigeon Berdy on clay after being in a winning position late in the match. The guy works really hard and maybe he just needs this nice few weeks of break after the long haul of the clay and wimbeldon season. Who knows? It takes a bit of prognostication but in the past Djokovic has always won a lot of points in this second half of the season and Nadal has not. And I think it fittingly comes down to which of these three wins the USO, that would make that person the strong favorite, although Murray could win the USO and still lose it if Novak has strong results otherwise. If Novak wins the USO it is a done deal for the most part.

Playing well in the win is not a source of criticism. Djokovic clearly hates the wind a lot more than Murray, fact is the Us open was a test of OUTDOOR hardcourt ability, heavy wind is sometimes to be expected. It was a windy US open and thus Murray was the deserved winner.

falzy21 wrote:Playing well in the win is not a source of criticism. Djokovic clearly hates the wind a lot more than Murray, fact is the Us open was a test of OUTDOOR hardcourt ability, heavy wind is sometimes to be expected. It was a windy US open and thus Murray was the deserved winner.

Heavy wind of that kind certainly isn't the norm, and is far more disruptive to the game than a little water is.  There should be common sense used.  It was almost unplayable for large parts, with the ball having a life of its own.  Your defence that it is an outdoor slam means nothing, because you could easily justify not ending for rain, a tornado, an earthquake, or an invasion from Mars. Andy's safe defensive plodding was able to beat Djokovic, and perhaps that is a weakness in his game, but it doesn't change the fact that Andy got lucky. Again.

Oh it's that time again.  

 

Any of that going spare Craig?

Sure Danny. Here you go.............. 

Thanks Craig.  

Mmmmm, sweet!

Danny_1982 wrote:Thanks Craig.  

Mmmmm, sweet!

As sweet as two slam wins and an Olympic Gold in the last 11 months?

No Craig, nowhere near as sweet as that. And nowhere near as sweet as seeing all the WUMs lining up to dilute those achievements.

That is the sweetest thing of all!  

Thank goodness for that, it was about time this thread converted to more Murray adulation. Was almost worried the forum was going to move away from Murray-dom for a moment there. 3 ATP events going on this week (Newport, Stuttgart and Bastad) and not so much as a sniff mentioned...the Verdasco run continues, Karlovic returns to tour, De Bakker knocks out Berdych, Dimitrov eases past Monaco...but hey, lets keep posts about Murray's dog going.

Murray WUM posts + Craig and I having a laugh about it = Murray adulation?

Interesting.

Just thought of putting together the ranking points that each of the top 4 earned after Wimbledon for last 4 years. Might help with the discussion. The bold text indicates the player who earned most points. Enjoy!
         

Player	2009	2010	2011	2012
Novak Djokovic	4260	3390	4160	5810
Andy Murray	2530	2985	3660	3450
Rafael Nadal	2400	4220	1980	0
Roger Federer	3090	5530	3990	2820

See below for detailed ranking points.

Mangamuri, that's a great post! Some cold, hard numbers!

On previous form, you'd have to say it's advantage Novak.

The tennis landscape feels different to me this year though.

That said, this time last year I was thinking that Novak was in a real trough but, as your numbers show, he went on a tear after Wimbledon (and especially post-USO).

Who knows?!

Yeah those figures show how good Novak is in this upcoming stretch. I expect more of the same from him this year.

Firm favourite for YE no.1 for me, marginal favourite for USO too.

Thanks HM Murdoch. As you stated in 2012 Novak was very consistent post Wimbledon reaching all finals except Paris Masters. All in all it is most probable that he will gain enough points to finish the year end no.1 for third year in a row.

Dynamics and mentality will come into play too.

Let's say hypothetically that Andy and Novak meet at Cincy and Andy wins. I think that will be a big blow to Novak and a huge boost to Andy. Another loss to Andy or Rafa will start to be a weight to carry.

I thought last year that Novak's win in Shanghai was massive, simply because it was getting to the point where he needed to beat a rival.

We're not at that stage yet this year but another defeat before USO and we'd have the beginnings of losing streak emerging.

Also here is the W/L ratio of the finals each one played during this period.

The only option I see that Novak will not end year end no.1 is if Murray goes on a tear. i.e. winning couple of Masters, US Open and WTF.

Murray's numbers are quite interesting in that table. It appears that he's either very, very good or horrid. Up until Shanghai last year he was 10-0 in finals post-Wimbledon since 2009.

mangamuri wrote:Also here is the W/L ratio of the finals each one played during this period.

R u sure the stats are right?

Coz Nadal played only 1 GS final and he won, it shows 1- 1 for Nadal, likewise for the rest.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

mangamuri wrote:Also here is the W/L ratio of the finals each one played during this period.

R u sure the stats are right?

Coz Nadal played only 1 GS final and he won, it shows 1- 1 for Nadal, likewise for the rest.

2010 US Open: Nadal d. Djokovic in four sets.

2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal in four sets.

1-1.

Federer should be 0-1 though as he lost in five to Del Potro at the 2009 US Open.

Heavy wind isnt luck, they both had to deal with it. If only Djokos side of the court was affected by wind then yes it was lucky, but it wasnt. Its not Murrays fault that hes a better player in the wind. Luck also implies by its definition something that does often happen. Murrays beaten Djoko plenty...

lydian wrote:Thank goodness for that, it was about time this thread converted to more Murray adulation. Was almost worried the forum was going to move away from Murray-dom for a moment there. 3 ATP events going on this week (Newport, Stuttgart and Bastad) and not so much as a sniff mentioned...the Verdasco run continues, Karlovic returns to tour, De Bakker knocks out Berdych, Dimitrov eases past Monaco...but hey, lets keep posts about Murray's dog going.

We are less than a week removed from the biggest tennis tournament there is. For the first time in 77 years it was won by a British player and you want discussion on a British-based tennis forum to revolve around Karlovic in Newport???

He has come back from veral meningitis!

LuvSports! wrote:He has come back from veral meningitis!

Must be more interesting than Andy's Wimby win then.

Just saying why he would bring it up.