Rate these international outside centres from their stats

First topic message reminder :

Rate these players

In the attachment, there is a table with the playing statistics for 5 games for 5 International Outside Centres.

Looking at the stats can you rate each of the marks out of 10 as to how good you think they are.

For example, Centre Z = 6/10 and so on.
Then, rate them in order (1-6) of who you think is best.
Give reasons why you rate one player over another - could be for their defence, linebreaking ability, passing etc -  
Since these stats are real, try and name them then.

Just something to do to fill in an idle moment in the silly season!



UPDATED FULL STATS TABLE HERE (including Try Assists & Tries).

A. Johnathan Davies
B. Conrad Smith
C. Jamie Rhoberts
D. Manu Tuilagi
E. JJ engelbrecht
F. Drico

Ok - thanks everyone who had a shot at what they were asked to do.

Here are the full set of stats. Pretty amazing Conrad Smith's tackling rate and how good he is at it and how he could play 5 matches without kicking once.

Bastaurad is some offloader as well.

Why do you have two Irish players?

So he could demonstrate the difference between Drico and Earls. That was the whole purpose of the exercise.

Are Earls stats from this years 6N?

yappysnap wrote:Why do you have two Irish players?

Because I got the idea from someone who was comparing BOD & Earls and I just went a bit further to compare them against everyone. Then I thought I'd start a thread to see if anyone could pick out who they were. Just a bit of fun at this time of the year.

Note I've done BOD twice - one a very good season and one his most recent season.

GunsGerms wrote:So he could demonstrate the difference between Drico and Earls. That was the whole purpose of the exercise.

Actually I wanted to remove this BOD v Earls Poopie to compare Earls to other centres.

I hope you are pleased I went to the trouble of finding some good stats for BOD.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Are Earls stats from this years 6N?

BOD was playing in the centre this year - I couldn't use them. I used the stats of last time he played centre. Note I've done something similar with Manu Tualagi who missed Scotland I think in this year's 6Ns - I used the stats from the game he played against Scotland for the world cup.

edit: Earls played in the centre for the 2012 6Ns (when BOD was having a shoulder op).

Sin é wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Are Earls stats from this years 6N?

BOD was playing in the centre this year - I couldn't use them. I used the stats of last time he played centre. Note I've done something similar with Manu Tualagi who missed Scotland I think in this year's 6Ns - I used the stats from the game he played against Scotland for the world cup.

Yeah interesting how many metres Earls makes,I have to say that now Ireland have a coach who will have the team set up to attack I'm not going to prejudge any player.Earls gets a fresh start and could be a real weapon if the backrow and wingers are told to support his breaks instead of allowing him to hare off on his own and get isolated.This also applies to Kearney any time he makes a break from counter attacking or catching up n unders,too often under Kidney we made a break and it came to nothing as the team wasn't set up to make the most of our opportunities.

Without context, this means nothing really. I don't understand how you can argue these mean anything! We know how far a guy has run or how many times he has kicked the ball but we don't know to what effect- has he scored/set-up a try or run up a blind alley? Has he found touch or handed the ball back cheaply to the opponents? We know how many tackles he's made but we don't know whether he stops them on the gainline or is getting dragged back a few metres every time.

From just looking at those stats nobody has any idea about how good any of those players defence, passing, running game etc. is. There is no possible way you can tell anything whatsoever from it. A player could run 50m and put a simple try-scoring pass into touch. A player could make 40 tackles and get knocked back in contact in every one. A player could complete 100% of their passes without fixing a single defender. The only way to assess any players contribution is by watching the game in detail. Stats can help in that but by themselves they are of very limited help.

The stats tell you the number of turnovers (doesn't tell you how cheaply though).

I think most people would have seen most those matches and would have commented if that was happening on a regular basis. The biggest problem 13s have with defence is positioning - and the stats show the player who always seems to know where the ball will be in 2 minutes time missed one tackle in 41 and to be honest, I can't think of any player at 13 known for being a soak tackler (like everyone would know that Ronan O'Gara is a soak tackler and Jonathan Sexton isn't).

Fixing a defender doesn't happen that often in international rugby, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. What you need to be looking for is a variety of running & passing (and kicking the odd one) so not to be too predictable.

To figure out how good the attack is all you have to count the tries scored by the team. 2013 6Ns.
Wales: 9
England (Manu): 5
Scotland: 7
Italy: 5
Ireland: 5
France: 6
2012 6Ns (for Earls' stats) Ireland: 13  

By the way, I'm assuming that most people here would have actually seen those games, so surely not completely out of context?

Earls scored 13 tries?? WOW I didn't realise he was better then Ashton in 2011 and had broken Greenwoods record! Why don't Ireland play him more? Maybe at 10 so his electrifying attacking skills can be used to the max?

yappysnap wrote:Earls scored 13 tries?? WOW I didn't realise he was better then Ashton in 2011 and had broken Greenwoods record! Why don't Ireland play him more? Maybe at 10 so his electrifying attacking skills can be used to the max?

No Yappy, I don't think he scored any tries in that 6Ns (may have had a few try assists though). The team scored 13 which means that the attack was working out well and something must have come of all those linebreaks and runs he made  

Sin é wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Earls scored 13 tries?? WOW I didn't realise he was better then Ashton in 2011 and had broken Greenwoods record! Why don't Ireland play him more? Maybe at 10 so his electrifying attacking skills can be used to the max?

No Yappy, I don't think he scored any tries in that 6Ns (may have had a few try assists though). The team scored 13 which means that the attack was working out well and something must have come of all those linebreaks and runs he made  

The attack also had the advantage of having 3 home games instead of 2,facing Italy,Scotland and Wales in good weather as compared to the 2 mudbaths this year against England and France.

Sin é wrote:I think most people would have seen most those matches and would have commented if that was happening on a regular basis...

By the way, I'm assuming that most people here would have actually seen those games, so surely not completely out of context?

Except you didn't tell us what matches or players these stats refer to, the point initially was you just asked us to rate the "players" sight unseen based on a few abstract numbers. As for not fixing defenders in the international game...

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:I think most people would have seen most those matches and would have commented if that was happening on a regular basis...

By the way, I'm assuming that most people here would have actually seen those games, so surely not completely out of context?

Except you didn't tell us what matches or players these stats refer to, the point initially was you just asked us to rate the "players" sight unseen based on a few abstract numbers. As for not fixing defenders in the international game...

I asked you to try and do it. Since no one wanted to do it, rather than just forget about it, I gave all the info. The game about rating the players ended when you knew who the players were. I did this so as to avoid people picking to suit their prejudices.

If you look at the stats image you will see when all the games were played (with the exception of Earls which I forgot to do and when asked to, I clarified). One of the games he was 2010 and the reason why I used it was because he missed the 2012 game versus Wales and in 2010 he played in the centre after Gordon D'Arcy got injured after about 20 minutes (and scored 2 tries and made 11 tackles missing none).

PS, there is nothing abstract about no. of tackles made or missed, or penalties conceeded etc. These are factual things that happened.

As for not fixing defenders - it rarely happens now at international level - the analysis and blitz defence is that good. People are still talking about it happening to Davies/BOD for the Lions. Most of the points seem to come from penalties nowadays - some teams just play for penalties (having a good kicker & a decent defence).

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

Sin é wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Earls scored 13 tries?? WOW I didn't realise he was better then Ashton in 2011 and had broken Greenwoods record! Why don't Ireland play him more? Maybe at 10 so his electrifying attacking skills can be used to the max?

No Yappy, I don't think he scored any tries in that 6Ns (may have had a few try assists though). The team scored 13 which means that the attack was working out well and something must have come of all those linebreaks and runs he made  

The attack also had the advantage of having 3 home games instead of 2,facing Italy,Scotland and Wales in good weather as compared to the 2 mudbaths this year against England and France.

Well, I suppose you could always add on 10-15% or so for away games, but it is still a combination of 5 games.

Sin é wrote:PS, there is nothing abstract about no. of tackles made or missed, or penalties conceeded etc. These are factual things that happened.

Yeah and unless we go back and watch the game we have no idea what context they happened in, and thats what counts. There's one way to assess these stats- thats to watch all the games they happened in. You can't just look at a row of numbers and judge a player.

Notch would you chancing extrapolating anything from something like this:

Player A makes 10 tackles and misses 5.
Player B makes 15 tackles and misses 0.

Yeah, broadly, but obviously unless you actually see the missed tackles you don't know why they were missed. Similarly, if you don't see the completed tackles you don't know how effective they were. Thats about the most extreme example you can give and yet without knowing the circumstances its still of very limited value.

It's only useful for seeing the most broad trends and even then it gives no insight into why the stats are the way they are- which is really what judgement relies on.

Why not just skip watching rugby, look at the stats...

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Can't or won't doc?

13540

78923

34502

23012

23293

Which woman would you like to go home with?

Sorry, I had to step out for the day. When you sent this, 7:07am, I was getting ready to leave to pick my sons up at wrestling camp, about 4 hours each way. And now, 6:00pm, I see two questions.

One: What do the stats say about Keith Earls? Well, they do say that O'Driscoll chap is hugely over-rated.
Glad he never played for Northampton (gag).......

Two: selecting a woman (a vastly more difficult proposition). I choose 13540. Why? Well the lowest number is probably the prize which gerts overlooked.
1 - dedicates all attention, affection, and efforts to THE 1 person (that's me you goof balls)
3 - makes 3 fine meals a day. And cleans up after the 3 fine meals, too.
5 - is with me 5 days per week. I need the rest to hang with my mates, play Rugby, get fixed up again at hospital, spend quality alone time. She need the other days to plan and prepare for the next 5.
4 - Knows the first 4 verses of GSTQ (didn't see that coming, did you?)
0 - well......
Spends 0 time on facebook, twitter, or any other social media mechanism.
Knows 0 people associated with the Army, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, or any other government organisation.
Has 0 interest in Eastenders
Has 0 interest to drive an automatic transmission
Has 0 mood swings
Has 0 interest in breast reduction surgery
Has 0 interest to remain uninformed
(dream)

Interesting comparisons there, Sin. Well done for taking the time to do that!


Of course stats are not everything but they can reveal some important things. For instance Earls has weaknesses which everyone always point out but people overlook what he can do. Hopefully he gets an injury free run this season.


The stats were over 5 games too. People often use stats from 1 game to crucify players.

You can't rate players from stats like this its just pointless. But I can see your agenda and good luck with it if that kind of thing fills you with a sense if well being.

Have these guys even played the same opposition?

What was the individual match conditions like?

If one was a mud bath and the other a sunshine filled day on a dry track it would make just a tad a difference.

Who plays inside them?

What is their respective packs like?

Do their teams dominate territory and possession?

It's laughable that the OP deliberately excluded the stats that countered his own agenda...

GloriousEmpire wrote:It's laughable that the OP deliberately excluded the stats that countered his own agenda...

Yeah, you would never think of doing that ghostie!

Stats table updated to include Try Assists & tries scored.

Table also indicates when games were played, but were mainly the mostly the 2013 Six Nations. Weather conditions would not have varied that much between the countries.

5 games is a reasonable sample within a short period of time in similar conditions against similar opposition.

GloriousEmpire wrote:It's laughable that the OP deliberately excluded the stats that countered his own agenda...

Which would those be now? All available stats are now included. What agenda is exposed with the addition of this additional info?

Biltong wrote:Who plays inside them?

What is their respective packs like?

Do their teams dominate territory and possession?

There isn't a huge difference between those teams. Off the top of my head, Ireland would have suffered in 2012 against England because Mike Ross went off injured and England just played for penalties and won - but it is 5 games and the chances are that all teams will have one or two significant injures that will affect the way the team plays. Wales lose Warburton a lot, but they still manage to get on with it without him.

So what does all this prove, if anything?

Conrad Smith is like a donkey with no legs: can't kick. But somehow is able to run freely.

And the players either side of him score tries by the truckload.