Aviva Premiership - Round 4 Preview

Table:

Friday 27th September

19:45 Northampton Saints v Sale Sharks (BT Sports)
Saints and Sharks enter this fixture both with two wins and separated by a single point in the table. Do not let that fool you into thinking this will be close. Sale are a decent, workmanlike side - but Saints, always powerful, now have a real sprinkling of stardust. Northampton will be hurting from the nature of their defeat last week, but will hopefully have reflected on the things they failed to do to secure the victory Mallinder felt his team deserved. Mallinder has spoken about the need to rotate his team more than they usually do if they are to reach the end of the season with enough left in the tank to win a trophy. With their smaller than average squad, that may be tricky - and for this game probably just means that the Pisi brothers will return to the team.
Steve Diamond was rather cagy when discussing Danny Cipriani's performance last week. He knows that he has a match winner on his hands, but at the same time there is obviously something about Cipriani's dedication that rubs the Sale boss up the wrong way. With Nick McLeod looking to have picked up a serious injury, their is little alternative to the former england man. I do wonder though just how strong the team around him will be. I can see Diamond resting a number of players ahead of their home fixture next week.

Surely a comfortable win for Saints



Saturday 28th September

15:00 Bath Rugby v London Irish
So, did Gary gold and Mike Ford rest players to save them, or did they really think they had the right tactics last week. Irrelevant now, but Gold looked rather chastened in post match interviews. For the return to the Rec we can expect to see the powerful players omitted last week, and George Ford, re-instated to the starting lineup. The LI old boys will be especially keen to impress against their old team. While Jonathan Joseph is in the EPS and Matt Garvey gets the 606 plaudits I reckon that Anthony Watson will turn out to be the biggest success. I fully expect him to show LI what they are missing.
London Irish of course still have some excellent backs themselves, from the experienced Irish half-backs to the every improving Marland Yarde. With 4 tries in 3 matches Yarde has shown power, pace and an eye for the line. Will surely earn more England caps this season. However in the end, like most matches, this will be decided by the battle up front. Bath's pack looks too big and too strong.

Bath to win by more than 7


15:00 London Wasps v Worcester Warriors
The two bottom teams meet in a vital clash. With the number of points that Warriors have been conceding, DR Dean Ryan should perhaps spend more time working on his team's frailties and less on moaning about referees. Worcester do not look like a side who will score lots of tries, so they must improve their defence.
Wasps have garnered 3 LBPs from their 3 matches - all effectively away from home. As they play yheir first match at their own ground this week, they will feel that they are just a tiny improvement away from winning games. Losing however can become a habit and Wasps will be desperate to win this one and avoid heading to Saracens in round 5 seeking their first win.

Gut feel that Wasps will turn it on for a comfortable win



15:15 Harlequins v Saracens (BT Sports)
Probably the highlight of this rounds fixtures, sees the two losing semi-finallists from last season meet for the first time this season. Against a poor Worcester team, Quins showed championship winning form last week. If they can play at, or close to, their best they should be able to win this match. Saracens however are in stunningly good form. If you cannot dominate them up front, they are very good at steam rollering teams. This has already been demonstrated against three packs which, for various reasons, are not the strongest Sarries will face.
Quins will be the toughest match so far for Sarries, but are they strong enough? Certainly the more technical Quins front row will look to get the ref on their side early, whilke elsewhere they will be looking to move the bigger pack around and tire them out. In the end I feel this match will be decided at the breakdown. Sarries are expert at slowing down opposition ball, some would argue killing the ball and Quins have to counter this.

Saracens continue winning ways




Sunday 29th September

14:00 Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers (BT Sports)
In their first televised match of the season, Chiefs welcome the defending champions looking to replicate the results of two seasons ago. Both sides have two wins, and whoever seals victory in this match will find themselves in the Top4. Both sides have injury issues, but then who doesn't. Tigers will need to play better than they have so far this season if they are to travel home with a win.


Newcastle Falcons v Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester secured their first win of the season in controversial fashion last week, while Falcons appeared to gift tigers victory by resting key players. Falcons have to pick a big pack and hope that Blair and Clegg/Godman can keep them in the right part of the pitch. Thing is, even then Gloucester look to have too much ability.

Gloucester to continue the new found winning habit

OK, ran out of steam a little towards the end. There it is though.

Thoughts, predictions, injury updates all welcome.

Bloody hell only just found this amongst all the Euro and Rabo threads! If only everyone else kept this place as tidy as us English...

I think you are probably right with your predictions, but then Quins must be close to Sarries skill wise and if we can just keep our continuity and protect our ball we could sneak it. Likewise Ex could upset Tigers I'd they're on top form and spoil well, this would be the perfect time for them to lay down a marker this season.

Biggest surprise I can see is Falcons beating Glaws. Could def happen if Gloucester don't control the game well, Falcons will snap up any pen chances and if the weather's bad all the better as Glos look pretty weak at times.

yappysnap wrote:Bloody hell only just found this amongst all the Euro and Rabo threads! If only everyone else kept this place as tidy as us English...

I think you are probably right with your predictions,  but then Quins must be close to Sarries skill wise and if we can just keep our continuity and protect our ball we could sneak it. Likewise Ex could upset Tigers if they're on top form and spoil well, this would be the perfect time for them to lay down a marker this season.

Biggest surprise I can see is Falcons beating Glaws. Could def happen if Gloucester don't control the game well, Falcons will snap up any pen chances and if the weather's bad all the better as Glos look pretty weak at times.

Sadly we haven't been yappy and I can see the experienced heads at Tigers surviving the onslaught that the Chiefs will inevitably throw at them and grinding out the win. At the moment our decision-making is a little off key, and we are committing far too many turnovers in the wrong areas of the pitch.

We need as many if the big guns as possible for Chiefs away as they sure as hell aren't going to roll over like the Falcons did.

Mulipola, Youngs, Cole
Slater, Kitchener
Mafi, Crane. Salvi
Youngs, Flood
Allen, Goneva
Scully, Morris, Thompstone

If we've got the likes of Parling and Tait back then now's the time to bring them onto the bench and get them some game time.

Sarries vs Quins could be a real test for the Quins pack. If they don't match Sarries physically then they could be in big trouble as their midfield has looked pedestrian so far this season whilst Sarries have been ruthless.

Parling was on the bench against falcons, replaced Crane.

Londontiger you talk about Sarries not facing strongest packs they will face - well Bath and Gloucester have both been talked up as top 4 contenders. I know there were factors that made it easier for Sarries but both happened because of Sarries in a way.

Plus the only packs you would say are stronger than these two are Saints,Leicester and perhaps Quins.

Quins must believe they can win.

I think the most interesting bar the Sarries-Quins is Exeter vs Leicester. Not sure how to call that one.

I can't see us winning at The Rec to be honest. Our record there is not great anyway, and our injury list up front is horrendous. We should have Hagan back to replace Aulika, but unsure how he will go. Skivs has now passed his concussion test but having not trained for a month he is not considered fit enough to play. Hala'ufia and Fisher are both still missing. I expect the same pack as played last week except Hagan for Aulika, but I don't see it being enough to stop a Bath backlash after their mauling at Aliianz Park last week.   

If Parling is fit then a bench of Stankovitch, Briggs, Balmain, Parling, Waldrom, Mele, Williams, Tait/Bowden. That should give us our best chance of a win. If we can give Tait and Parling some game time towards the end of the game then that would be a real bonus.

I fancy us for a home win.

We rested players for our defeat to Tigers yet still competed for a decent part of the game, in the pack at least.

Gloucester historically don't travel well to Kingston. On the plus our scrum has been fantastic, we just need to sort the lineout.

Massive game for us....Falcons by 5.

Saints by lots with a TBP and nothing for Sale
Bath by more than 7 but with no TBP
Wasps with TBP, nothing for Worcester
Saracens with no TBP and Quins to get a LBP
Chiefs with no TBP and Tigers to get a LBP
Falcons with no TBP and Gloucester to get a LBP

Falcons with no TBP and Gloucester to get a LBP

You could put your mortgage on that one, I'd be happy if we bagged one tbh

If my predictions turn out right, we'll be 11th come Sunday evening!  

Early doors yet

Definitely.  As long as we don't lose any to injury this week, I can see us winning against Quins next week as i reckon they might rest a few for the Heino the week after.  

At this stage the table is so tight, that if you reverse my prediction for our game, then we would be 6th if all the other predictions were right.

beshocked wrote:Londontiger you talk about Sarries not facing strongest packs they will face - well Bath and Gloucester have both been talked up as top 4 contenders. I know there were factors that made it easier for Sarries but both happened because of Sarries in a way.

Bath rested their biggest props/second rows etc. Gloucester were without a forward for 79 minutes. This made both packs weaker than they will be when Sarries face them again. Then there will be tigers and Saints, plus whoever you have in Europe.

Not trying to diss Sarries, their form has been excellent - they will have tougher games though.

I think Sarries will beat us, but I'm also sure that we can win the game and win it well. Even in the wet, the pack really needs to take the sting out of Sarries breakdown skills and the lineout though, and find a way to take pressure off the halfbacks and give them just a bit of space. Elsewhere, I think there might even be all home wins

After my storming week on superbru last week it is guaranteed that this week I get everything wrong, so don't go with this...
Saints by 20
Bath by 20
Wasps by 10
Quins/Sarries draw
Chiefs by 3
Glaws by 5

Just rewatched the Quins and Sarries games and I'm really looking forward to their head to head this weekend. Both teams showing total rugby in their wins and if the weather stays good and both bring the A games then it should be a cracker.

Marler and M Vunipola in particular looked out standing for their sides, Marler's step and pace off the mark was phenomenal against Wuss. Let's hope they both keep it up.

Saints by 10
Bath by 15
Wasps by 5
Sarries by 3
Exeter by 3
Falcons by 5

C'mon you Falcons!!!

LondonTiger wrote:

beshocked wrote:Londontiger you talk about Sarries not facing strongest packs they will face - well Bath and Gloucester have both been talked up as top 4 contenders. I know there were factors that made it easier for Sarries but both happened because of Sarries in a way.

Bath rested their biggest props/second rows etc. Gloucester were without a forward for 79 minutes. This made both packs weaker than they will be when Sarries face them again. Then there will be tigers and Saints, plus whoever you have in Europe.

Not trying to diss Sarries, their form has been excellent - they will have tougher games though.

I agree but I thought both Bath and Gloucester brought those factors on themselves as I said in my previous post.

Gloucester were simply too fired up and combative because they felt they had to vs Sarries. Wood got frustated with Burger so stamped on him leading to the red card.

Bath didn't really feel like they were going to beat Sarries hence resting their players.

Both teams brought the misfortune on themselves.

My point is there aren't many packs you would expect to be better than the Bath and Gloucester ones. For the record no I don't think the Connacht and Zebre packs compare favourably with Bath and Gloucester.

I agree there will be tougher games but there should be easier ones too.

HKC going for a draw on superbru is very risky. Not much reward for that.

"My point is there aren't many packs you would expect to be better than the Bath and Gloucester ones"

I wouldn't say Gloucester have an overly strong pack, certainly not one of the stronger units in the AP.

Sgt Pooly I would say that Gloucester have one of the best backrows in the AP. Good depth in that area too.

Yea they have some good options in the backrow without doubt, front 5 is bottom half material though.

Luckily their backline is electric!

Yes B, they brought it on themselves. But it does mean that Sarries have yet to be really tested. Until they meet a team that matches them physically, we cannot know if they have moved on from last seasons semi woes.

Great start though with maximum points. Cannot do more than that.

Dont get me started on the Gloucester backline....sigh....

You talk about them having a bottom half front five.

I think their backrow raises their pack up above some of them.

I would take the Gloucester pack over the following - London Irish,Worcester,Newcastle,Sale and Wasps.

I think our front row will be quite a bit better than Glos...the second row will be interesting but i think with Barrow, Del Fava and McKensie we can edge that and Glos have the better back row. So its a curious one.

Hopefully Clegg (or even Better Joel Hodgson) will start and and we can actually atttempt to get our backline moving...its been appalling stuff to watch so far!! I want to see us score a try this game or ill not be impressed.

We certainly have the better front 5, backrow to Gloucester but I do like our options.

Past Blair it's a one way battle, Gloucester are a class above in every position.

Hopefully we can put a marker down in the pack and rough them up a bit.

Looking forward to seeing Marland Yarde at the Rec, I'm sure we'll be signing him up for next season!

Bath should win and win well but rugby has a habit of not always following the script.

My predictions:

Saints 5 pts Sale 0
Bath 4 pts Irish 0
Wasps 4 pts Wuss 0
Quins 1 pt Sarries 4
Exeter 1 pt Leicester 4
Newcastle 4 pts Gloucester 1

All pretty vanilla predictions but I think Gloucester have a strange habit of beating the big teams and then losing against the weaker ones and I think this is precisely the sort of game where this will happen.

If Exeter were in better form I would back them to get the home win, but from what I've seen they have been misfiring slightly, whereas Leicester have looked pretty good to me.

Good write up as ever LT.

I'm just praying that Wasps can get a win. We have had some frustrating games v Wuss, who strangle the life out of us and then take their penalties.

And discipline is an area where Wasps need to improve massively. We have outscored two of our opponents on tries only to give away a load of kickable penalties.

Worry ye not, Hound.

Who better to kickstart your season against than the lowly Worriers.

I struggle to see where we are going to get a win from. Folk were mistakenly talking us up as a possible 10th spot finisher, before the seasong started. Hopefully, compacency will soon set in (responsible for most of our wins over recent seasons).

Complacency. Sorry.

15 Ben FODEN
14 Jamie ELLIOTT
13 George PISI
12 Luther BURRELL
11 George NORTH
10 Stephen MYLER
9 Lee DICKSON
1 Alex CORBISIERO
2 Dylan HARTLEY (capt)
3 Tom MERCEY
4 Courtney LAWES
5 Christian DAY
6 Calum CLARK
7 Phil DOWSON
8 Sam DICKINSON

Replacements
16 Mike HAYWOOD
17 Alex WALLER
18 Gareth DENMAN
19 Samu MANOA
20 Tom WOOD
21 Kahn FOTUALI’I
22 James WILSON
23 Ken PISI

Not confident at all for our chances at Bath. Would take a LBP and a competitive performance. Last season at the Rec we were close for an hour then we just imploded and Bath ran in three late tries to make the scoreline look very one sided.

replacemnt props not sure about, but that is one hell of a strong Saints bench

Sale:

Team Tom Arscott, Rob Miller, Mark Cueto, Andy Forsyth, Tom Brady, Danny Cipriani, Will Cliff, Eifion Lewis Roberts, Tommy Taylor, Vadim Colbilas, Kirill Kulemin, Michael Paterson, Dan Braid Captain, David Seymour, Mark Easter

Replacements Marc Jones, Ross Harrison, Henry Thomas, Johnathan Mills, Andrei Ostrikov, Nathan Fowles, Joe Ford, Phil McKenzie

Whats peoples views on playing understrength sides for games you expect to lose?

GeordieFalcon wrote:Whats peoples views on playing understrength sides for games you expect to lose?

Don't like it, but thats the price of having a play off system and lots of games.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Whats peoples views on playing understrength sides for games you expect to lose?

I am not comfortable with it.

Having said that, when you are competing at the top of the table there are so many high profile matches and players tied up with internationals that you have to rotate players. This is not something English clubs tended to do a lot of, most obvious example being Saints in the season they lost to Leinster in HC final.

So what about sides whose main ambition is to survive? Well for me they should rest players for Amlin/LV. But if Falcons, as an example, beat Gloucester well Deano will say resting players against Tigers was correct. I just feel you gifted us a TBP win, which could be important come May.

LI injury list - stolen from BBC

Topsy Ojo - Prognosis: Hurt hamstring in pre-match warm-up last week v Exeter. Expected to be available this weekend.
Halani Aulika - Ruptured achilles tendon - expected to miss the rest of the season.
Jon Fisher - Concussion. Comeback uncertain.
Mike Mayhew - Injured ankle in training which required surgery. Likely return late October/early November.
Setaimata Sa - Had knee surgery. Likely return late September.
Tom Homer - picked up a groin injury in the pre-season fixture against London Wasps. Likely return late October/early November.
Jamie Hagan - Picked up an ankle injury away at Munster. Likely return late September.
Pat Phibbs - Picked up a foot injury in pre-season. Likely return late September.
Blair Cowan - Picked up a calf injury in pre-season. Likely to be available this week.
George Skivington - Was concussed in the match against Munster. Brian Smith says if he's not back this week then he will be available next.
Guy Armitage - Broken wrist bone. Return late October.
Chris Halaufia - Knee ligament.Likely return early October.
Tom Fowlie - Toe fracture. likely return early to mid October.
Kieran Low - Concussion. Uncertain.

Odd how some teams lose so many players in pre season and others lose none. Just what are they doing in their training sessions??

I think its just luck, or rather lack of, yappy. Mind you Chris Halaufia probably did it to himself!

I agree LT and Scrumpy i dont like it either...id rather see us play our full strength sides whenever possible...see where we are as a team compared to the best...where we ultimately want to be.

I do understand why we for example would play a weaker side...but for me it is ultra professionalism and devalues the league.
As LT says it affects the league by gifting teams extra points they might not have and could have an impact on play off spots and the title...

Out of that list Hagan and Cowan are back and in the squad for the weekend.

skivington just needs fitness and ojo is 50/50 to be back for this weekend if not next.

and we have signed gough this week to help out.

so its not the end of the world, just far from ideal.

From a LI perspective I have a very bad feeling about Bath this weekend. We have a pretty poor record at the Rec and I just have this awful feeling we aren't going to turn up...I really hope I am wrong.

Credit to London Irish fans in regards to injury woes. Haven't heard excuses/complaints about them.

im sure were not the only side with lots of injuries.

just hits us worse as we have a smaller squad with less quality than others.

There's a lot injuries at LI at the minute. Nimmo and Gough coming in should add some weight to the second row and that might help a bit.

I just hope Jamie Hagan is the real deal. A lot of Leinster fans rated him highly and were disappointed he left. Big boots to fill with Aulika out. Not only is Aulika a good scrummager, his try scoring record is awesome! Hala'ufia being out is a blow too as he is our main go to guy. Need others to step up with the ball carrying.