the crunch

This Saturday could be the biggest since the RWC a Tournament I despise,SA at home would normally expect 2 Home wins.
Such is the nature of the 3/4Ns,the AllBlacks this year have suffered the injuries to key players Romano,Messam,Carter,
Crudon,McCaw,CoryJane plus backups that cursed Sa/Oz last season.BUT have found replacements more or less.This
year the Boks have looked the coming team especially forward.Australia on recent known form have little chance BUT
Rugby is a funny game.The Boks to take the 4Ns need a bonus point win,then deny the AllBlacks any points in the last
game.Argentina are fielding arguably the strongest side this year,at home and are very abrasive a bonus point win
there is unlikely but impossible.A large points win by the ABs without a bonus point adds pressure on Boks in the
last Game.Given even parity of possession such is the AB`s fire power behind they can burn any team any where.
A losing bonus point would be enough for a second 4N`s title if they go in on equal bonus points in the last match
there defence hasn't yet conceded 4 tries this year.BUT a Bok bonus point win in the last match would probably
mean a win,4Ns title on points difference and possibly IRB top spot for the first time since 2009.

Tournament has been won already.

All I want from the Boks are two wins at home.

Yes Biltong but which winning side?

Australia will win in my view in a huge form upheaval. I also think NZ will struggle with Argentina. Could be two upsets which would set the cat into the canaries.

emack2 wrote:Yes Biltong but which winning side?

The AB's Alan.

Dont think its been won at all. Hansen is still to have his frst 'important, title threatening' loss and I agree it could be one or both of the next two. Travel never guarantees much and both sides are well overdue for a win vs the ABs- well overdue. And when those are the numbers, the pendulum cant stay out on one side for too long.

For me all the Boks need is to sort out their defence and show a bit more confidence with their backs- likely Habana and JDV to fire individually. Dont rate FDP versus the ABs- not playing the required level enough. ABs will show that up despite his having a good pack in front of him.

Hi,Taylorman don`t think Argentina will win but they will very abrasive Crudon is not really
fit.Certainly not match fit an injury to him again would mean 10`very thin for Boks I`m
hoping,not expecting a bonus point win versus them.Ideally with no injuries for SA the
squad is weak at cover at Lock,7,and 10.Messam at a pinch 7 for Boks starting RM a big
gamble.Boks are itching to prove a point and will be very physical AB`s need to take no
prisoners.match fire with fire and take them on up front.NZ can win with 50% ball can the
Boks?

Alan, the Boks generally win with less than fifty percent ball, remember we kick everything away.

Agree with the loosies issues, Cruden has Barrett as back up and viewing them both as fragile is moot until it actually happens. The ABs matched the boks physicality more than adequately at Eden park and playing RM I dont see as a risk-  if he says hes right, he will be. No one sets higher standards than he does.

Like the proverbial broken record I am, the boks progress this year has been primarily in opening their game up towards 15 man rugby, and at Eden park they completely abandoned it just because it was the AB's.

That suggests lack of confidence and a regression back to last year and before. Dont think Ive seen a worse backline performance from the boks than at eden park...but since no one was taking notice of that, what does it matter...?

Well we just have to face the facts, don't we?

The Springboks are simply not worthy, eh?

GloriousEmpire wrote:Australia will win in my view in a huge form upheaval.

I am usually a very optimistic supporter of the Wallabies but there is no way on earth they'll beat the Springboks this weekend. Apart from the fact they haven't won in Cape Town since 1992, the wheels have fallen off since the 3rd Lions test and they are playing like rubbish. We have 8 more tests to play this year and all of them are away games. McKenzie needs them to win at least 6 just to equal Robbie Deans winning %. No chance of that happening. Maybe even Wales will finally beat them.

Biltong wrote:Tournament has been won already.

All I want from the Boks are two wins at home.

What a lot of Love sacks - the difference the two teams is that NZ has had their home games and you guys are about to. What sort of fair weather fan are you trying to be?
NZ hasn't won in Arg yet. They could lose or they could draw or they could win without a bonus point. Any of those results gives you a chance for the competition if you win your own games.

Biltong thinks nothing of the sort. Biltong is setting up for a big 'told you so' moment. It's clear that he is frustrated with the given attitude towards SA rugby.

Don`t try to second guess anyone,THE BOKS are the furthest along the Rebuild Road.Nothing
can be read from Eden Park 14 v 15 for most of the match.Boks reverted to what the know
best only in the last few minutes did they try to run the ball.When talking about parity all
ANY Team can ask of its Pack is 50%.Then it is down to the backs everyone recently expects
Bok sides to grind out wins via a Goalkicking Game.IF it comes to that Morne Steyn is the man
for the Job.Inept displays by backs at Eden Park.could`nt have been much worse than ABS
second half performance versus Argentina.A high risk game will suit the Boks they love intercepts/charge downs always a risk with long cut out passes.As an AB supporter want
another 6-0 4Ns,5-1 and the 4Ns title fine,lost on points difference?if it happens not happy.

Wow Biltong is having a real sulk.

Nah, I have just taken to heart all the stuff being said about the Springboks, and have come to the conclusion, like your team, you know best.

Biltong mate, it's not like you. I know you were bitterly upset about the Eden park debacle, but look people say fricken annoying things after something like that.

Imagine being a All Blacks fan and actually having the entire British press jumping up and down gleefully celebrating the All Blacks being dumped out of 2007 and failing to acknowledge their incompetent referee caused it.

At least when the officials Frak up the springboks everyone acknowledges it.

Frankly people carry on like we have collectively when we're a bit nervous. It's a sort of sporting sign of respect, and that's the way I learned to take the 2007 debacle. 

You're one if the fairest and finest on the board and it frankly messed with my autism to see you throwing your toys out of the cot like this.

Buck up big man, we need your staunch realism.

GloriousEmpire wrote:...Imagine being a All Blacks fan and actually having the entire British press jumping up and down gleefully celebrating the All Blacks being dumped out of 2007 and failing to acknowledge their incompetent referee caused it..

Let me help with the healing process

There is no healing to be done mate, only the talk on the rugby pitch.

I eagerly await that.

Wow, that's one heck of a falcon! Good on him for hacking it.

Usually I'd add something else because it was our old mate but I seem to have lost the urge to keep blaming him. Mind you, it could just be a phase.

emack2 wrote:This Saturday could be the biggest since the RWC a Tournament I despise,

Do you actually despise it, Alan?

That's a bit harsh!

Brick, are you just looking at things in the room and saying you despise them? Do you actually despise the lamp?

I had not Google that. Not seen Anchorman. Is it any good?

YES!!!!

It doesn't strike me as your kind of film, Alan.

Biltong wrote:Well we just have to face the facts, don't we?

The Springboks are simply not worthy, eh?

Just my views Biltong. SA have the players and for me disappointed big time after huge efforts made all year to embrace the 15 man game. Going back to the wham bang game has put them a step back and it showed in the confidence in nearly every back- none you could say had a good game, most either absent or making errors. This insistnce of dominating teams to win just doesnt work. Half the side are backs...what would have happened if all had played well?

The results panned out rather unexpectedly with a bonus win for the AB`s somewhat
surprised Boks didn't achieve it.Next week 4 tries plus 8 or more points win by the Boks
would mean the 4Ns on points difference.What a horrible way to settle ANY tournament.
Better to say Joint-title holders because lets face it that would be the difference,this applies
to the 6Ns too.
Next week I expect a Boks win,this is a very good Bok side and when you consider those
missing to come back?BUT 4 tries would mean an open game from the off UNLESS the
AB`s get RED carded or its equivalent.The AB`s would love that then all bets are off.
The Bok Scrum will be a big weapon on any defending sides put in,sheer weight on the
second shove under current changes means major disruption.
Prediction Bok win,AB`s 4C,first of maybe 2 AB defeats this year,that is the average
since 14 or so games loss came in around 2006.
Always back the Hometeam in 3/4Ns or Super Rugby its the norm,2 or 3 losses since
RWC and another 4Ns that will do me if it happens.

The bonus points add an extra dimension to the tournament. SA played the wrong game plan inexplicably after going two tries up in no time, but were still desperately unlucky not to get a bonus point through a Habana try when the ref had called advantage over.

Points difference is clearly absurd given the nature if the tournament.

It looks like it comes down to the 1% chances at the moment with Ben Smiths 1% extra ability to execute and a few inspired touches by ma'a nonu making the difference...the new All Blacks mid field for 2015 on show late in the game.

I don`t like the Bonus points system as it stands,4 try yes,close defeat no you lost!!
BUT it is in place,good enough for RWC,3/4Ns and most European comps but not
the 6Ns [till now]points difference?that stinks.Watching the AllBlacks trying to gain
a bonus point in 2nd Bledisloe,and first Argentina game mistakes they made you
could have written a book.The only likely bonus point opportunity was a kick/chase
which was illegally impeded BUT that's Rugby..

The bonus points add incentives to games Alan. If you've won you just protect your lead. The other side losing doesn't have an incentive to extract something from the game. Conversely winning on the scoreboard but not the tournament obliges the winning team to find a way to win outright. It adds pressure and rewards composure and determination.

The Boks have hammered Argentina in their opening RCgames. That puts pressure on NZ to catch up or do the same against Australia. Applying pressure to teams you're not even facing. What's not to like about that?

Depends on perspectives for example people were saying draw favoured NZ but I thought
it favoured the Boks.Argentina first two games potential big
scores plus 2 bonus points .I know the system don`t have to like it next week and I don`t
advoc ate it.AB`s play 10 man Rugby kick NOT down the other sides throat hug the
touchline defend in depth play the game in the Boks half.Means huge concentration on
set piece and defence,taking opportunities to take points as they come.
What is the AB`s incentive except the obvious one win the match?it is up to the
Boks then to try and force a game.I don`t think they can score 4 trys in the current circs.
versus the AB`s.Certainly expect they will win and by more than typical route one Bok
tactics but not enough to win the the 4Ns.

You're free to dislike what you want Alan. Both sides will go for the win. The bonus points will only come into it as the game progresses. There's too much pride at stake for NZ to go for a tight finish. They'll go for the win and SA will want to prove that Auckland loss wasn't a foregone conclusion by winning well at home. With just a home and away game I wouldn't want to see a shared winner. There may be a sense of injustice with the bonus points but having a joint winner is less desirable in my view.

Bonus points are fine as long as you have home and away games in the same tournament (it wouldn't work in 6Ns, for example).

Winning the title on points scored is also fine in my view. Shared winners would be a real cop-out.

Suspect the game will be decided by another referee's call.

Not sure this Bok side is quite up to beating the ABs just yet. Both sides had a poor half this weekend and perhaps both sides really did have one eye on the final match. For me the two matches ended in a way that typifies the difference between the two sides- the ability of the backs to extract the result required. On had it, the other didnt quite get there.

Boks will be more desperate to get a win...any kind of win as the RC is already considered over by most...the ABs would let themselves down terribly to lose this of all the matches this year- this is the most prestigious.

We want to maintain this unbeaten run in the RC for as long as possible. It doesn't get any bigger as a challenge than Ellis Park. That's before you throw in the context of the previous encounter in Eden Park.

Last year in Soweto they came out firing and took control up front. Only problem was they had young players in midfield and they were badly exposed. The ABs were allowed to come back into the game all too easily.

Those holes won't be there this time round. At least not in the midfield. It's up to NZ to find a way to get the ball out wide without throwing an intercept pass. There have been flashes of what NZ is capable of on attack but they've found ways to score at key times. I think the Bok pack has been more compelling with what they're trying to achieve. With NZ though, they will probably have points scored against them so how will SA claw back those points or score enough themselves to apply pressure and squeeze errors out of them. That's what it comes down to because with the other sides they've faced this year they've both been able to absorb what the other team has thrown at them and score strongly in the last quarter.

Somebody is going to be outscored in this one - unless it's a draw - so who can cut down errors, keep discipline and take their opportunities? Finally, NZ has the conditions they want but in the most inhospitable rugby environment you can find. Soccer City didn't work out for SA. Time to go back to Cloud Rugby. The air is thin and there's electricity in the air...

I think you are in for a surprise this coming weekend, your confidence in your team is a tad misplaced after the happenings at Eden Park.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:We want to maintain this unbeaten run in the RC for as long as possible. It doesn't get any bigger as a challenge than Ellis Park. That's before you throw in the context of the previous encounter in Eden Park.

Last year in Soweto they came out firing and took control up front. Only problem was they had young players in midfield and they were badly exposed. The ABs were allowed to come back into the game all too easily.

Those holes won't be there this time round. At least not in the midfield. It's up to NZ to find a way to get the ball out wide without throwing an intercept pass. There have been flashes of what NZ is capable of on attack but they've found ways to score at key times. I think the Bok pack has been more compelling with what they're trying to achieve. With NZ though, they will probably have points scored against them so how will SA claw back those points or score enough themselves to apply pressure and squeeze errors out of them. That's what it comes down to because with the other sides they've faced this year they've both been able to absorb what the other team has thrown at them and score strongly in the last quarter.

Somebody is going to be outscored in this one - unless it's a draw - so who can cut down errors, keep discipline and take their opportunities? Finally, NZ has the conditions they want but in the most inhospitable rugby environment you can find. Soccer City didn't work out for SA. Time to go back to Cloud Rugby. The air is thin and there's electricity in the air...

Profound!

Not sure where the Boks will go. Their traditional and understandable approach is to not play rugby in their own half and only play rugby in the oppositions half if they absolutely have to.

But unable to rely on merely kicking their way to a strangling victory they will be forced to look for more than intercept tries and three pointers. I suspect South Africa will look to kick deep for touch and apply pressure to the All Blacks line out, force errors and Attack from the scrum. I don't expect the ball to get too wide as they'll look for their big men to go up the middle and around the rucks. 

NZ by contrast are likely to kick kick kick and kick some more. They know South Africa are unlikely to win if they need to run from deep and will want to hold them to their line, wait for frustration and four try anxiety to set in and then pounce on errors.

Biltong wrote:I think you are in for a surprise this coming weekend, your confidence in your team is a tad misplaced after the happenings at Eden Park.

hard to tell from kias comments where his confidence is- mislaced which way? The way I read it it seems nothing would surprise- either could win.

After the last 3 matches from either side NZ has been the stronger side all round, purely because they continue to press on, take their chances and have won comfortably in the end. SA cannot continue to rely on what would have been- based on what they have done on the field they are short in two areas- discipline and an ability to gain an avantage through the backs. The one thing I'd argue about Kias comments is re the SA midfield- I think it will be the area that ultimately lets SA down should the ABs win. On the other hand, should the SA backs have better games than their AB equivalents, the Boks wil win, likely even the RC itself, because in the end, thats the real difference between the two sides.

This week the match will be about technical ability and application rather than emotion- Meyer has said as much, and thats where my comments yield from. Biltong youre tending towards the emotional side of the match up, the need for revenge or similar from Eden park or from something else. Yes the match will have passion and all that goes with such a match but the technical aspects are what will win this match, not feelings of revenge or wrong doings.

Both sides will have the winning of the match first then the RC, in that order, as their primary goals. Its a match suited to the ABs style as it throws up all sorts of challenges. For SA even more so.

Potentially a great match that one will lose, and how we react as fans and posters here afterwards will be interesting.

We'll just have to wait and see, won't we.

You guys are underestimating the Boks.

Not run from deep?

Must have missed our tries that we have been scoring all year?

What is the try count in the rugby championship thus far?

By my count it is exactly the same.

The way I see it BB both sides are confident of winning. The Auckland match didn't allow us to see where the sides are at. SA has definitely moved on since last year in terms of their other games and NZ seems to be fairly similar in their performances. Bok fans might see this as SA closing the gap and NZ fans might see it as dealing with what they encounter.

The question is will whoever is beaten this weekend concede that the other is stronger? Or is it expected that SA should win at home?

Kia, I don't beleive we are worthy if the number one spot, even if we do win this weekend.

For me the target was that we show improvement this year. And from that point of view we have most definitely done that.

Last year during the Rugby Championship we socred 12 tries in 6 matches, and only won 2 games, this year we have already won 4 games and scored 19 tries in 5 matches.

That is double what we did last year.

Our breakdown has improved a huge amount, our attacking nous have improved greatly.

We are becoming more adventurous and unpredictable, and the oace we get onto the ball in attack has never been as good as it is currently.

Last year our attack was stale, it was predictable and we were woeful at the breakdown.

We play more positively than before, we create more tries and our backs are much more involved. Even our forwards have begun offloading, something you never saw before.

In the set piece our scrums are a huge improvement from last year.

Still much that can be improved upon, but overall a very promising improvement this year.

biltong none of that you mention came near to the eden park match. whether its because of the card or the fact that SA went back into the shell remins to be seen but regardless it wasnt there as it hasnt been in most AB encounters.

If SA are to surprise and bring that game then I for one will welcome it- I just dont see them doing that despite the scenario- bonus points etc screaming out for it.

When the chips are down, pressures on I think SA will do what they do best- an early AB try might trigger it- and that is to play the game they know best.

SA running the ball from all over the park would be the biggest surprise yet and even if they do it may be their undoing- not being experienced enough at it. Eden park showed for me the boks arent ready yet to sit beside the ABs but agree that a win would be in the right direction. 3 years we'd all be assuming a home bok win...not so much this time. The ABs will be favourites on the market and thats not often the case in SA.

Taylorman, you have your iwn ideas about the Springboks.

I have my ideas about the Springboks.

I read nothing from Eden Oark, I do not see how you can read much into that game either, we had one scrum with 8 men before we lost Bismarck, I watched how you guys struggled against Argentina.

We did much better against them in the scrums, our line out is top class.

Our breakdown work is top class, we managed to control the breakdown better than New Zealand.

Comparing our gameplan or judging our gameplan with one man down is simply ludicrous when your tries came from having a man up.

We will stifle the All Blacks next weekend, you won't have the free reign you have had thus far in the Rugby Championship, that alone will be the toughest challenge you have faced this year.

But carry on beleiving what you want, wait for Ellispark , you know me, if New Zealand manages to put us to the sword next weekend I will happily concede the areas they are better than us.

But until we get to play 80 minutes with even numbers there is little point in making judgements.

Hi,Biltong I NEVER underestimate the Boks ANYWHERE,certainly not at Home on the High
Veldt.With both Nonu and Owen Franks doubtful and the travel factor be surprised if the
AB`s win.Smother them?that implies the grind em down take the points Bok gameplan of old.
Kick to the Corner/rolling maul to score tries maybe one certainly not 4 that avenue,the AB`s
are not that deficient in defending it.I think they have hardly conceded many via that route
since Boks golden days of 2009.Scored as many tries true?how many of those were in the first
match?If it comes to a penalty shoot out Boks win,all out running match THAT could go either
way.Expect the Ref.to be looking for over enthusiastic play from both sides,and Flip Van der Merwe watching from the stands.

Biltong wrote:We'll just have to wait and see, won't we.

You guys are underestimating the Boks.

Not run from deep?

Must have missed our tries that we have been scoring all year?

What is the try count in the rugby championship thus far?

By my count it is exactly the same.

Just for the record mate. I can see it going either way. I think Meyer is a very astute coach and has the makings of a very good bok side. I'm guessing it's too big an ask to for a win with 4 tries. However, if I was going to put my money on any current team doing it to the AB's. It would be the Boks in Jo'berg.

Two home victories to leave things interesting at top and bottom.

I said it was 50/50 at Eden park with the edge to NZ because of home ground. Now its SA with home ground advantage and no travel so I would say they have a slight advantage. Not sure if they are good enough to get the bonus point or deny us getting one but they are good enough for the win.
I think people are understating the potential of the SA backs though they must be very aware that they didn't get the 4th try against the Wallabies.

BB it's evident that SA have improved but as you say it's impossible to take much out of the Eden Park test. You talk of NZ underestimating SA and certainly Dunedin last year and Eden Park saw NZ encounter similar difficulties at the breakdown. But on other sites I see some of your fellow countryman opine that SA was denied exposing an overrated NZ. But if we can't judge SA on that game, then the same must apply to NZ.

NZ are beatable and SA should believe they can win. But much like its too soon to say that SA has Australia's number after rectifying their away record in the closest Australia has to a fortress I agree with your summation that SA has not overtaken NZ.

SA have made gains. NZ have areas of concern like the scrum, line out and breakdown. That said, there continue to be positives and there are similarities to how both sides used their strengths to do away with Argentina and Australia. Home advantage should count for SA. The Boks are motivated to win so let's just see what the game brings. There are some who wish to promote this game as SA showing NZ its true place. I can understand those sentiments but to me both sides' fans are guilty of reading too much into the Eden Park game. SA can't undo their recent defeats in one game just as NZ can't reassert its dominance.

This RC has confirmed the top two sides in world rugby. SA has improved and made NZ sit up and take note. Regardless of the result NZ will be aware of where their opponents are. The NH tour will give us an idea of where the others fit in. You can only win your games and meet the challenges you face. You're not the only one eagerly anticipating how NZ react to the SA onslaught.