the crunch

First topic message reminder :

This Saturday could be the biggest since the RWC a Tournament I despise,SA at home would normally expect 2 Home wins.
Such is the nature of the 3/4Ns,the AllBlacks this year have suffered the injuries to key players Romano,Messam,Carter,
Crudon,McCaw,CoryJane plus backups that cursed Sa/Oz last season.BUT have found replacements more or less.This
year the Boks have looked the coming team especially forward.Australia on recent known form have little chance BUT
Rugby is a funny game.The Boks to take the 4Ns need a bonus point win,then deny the AllBlacks any points in the last
game.Argentina are fielding arguably the strongest side this year,at home and are very abrasive a bonus point win
there is unlikely but impossible.A large points win by the ABs without a bonus point adds pressure on Boks in the
last Game.Given even parity of possession such is the AB`s fire power behind they can burn any team any where.
A losing bonus point would be enough for a second 4N`s title if they go in on equal bonus points in the last match
there defence hasn't yet conceded 4 tries this year.BUT a Bok bonus point win in the last match would probably
mean a win,4Ns title on points difference and possibly IRB top spot for the first time since 2009.

Kia, I can't speak for others. I do agree that there are overzealous fans from both sides, some over estimating the All Blacks and others over estimating the Springboks.

I am neither one.

Like I said, the All Blacks are still number one, even if we beat them.

This game for me is to see how far we have come, and whether we have the goods to gain parity with the All Blacks in the next few years.

Nothing more.

Maybe I read into the matches so far this year more than I should but Ive seen enough from both sides to suggest that the ABs will be more than up for this, that SA have too many gaps in their armour to suggest a win here. With this match you will see the VERY best of the ABs and Im picking the boks will not be able to stay with them.

We have an extremely experienced side, most players are on form, particularly the backs and theyre ready for whatever SA throws at them. I just dont think the boks are ready for the ABs this time. Steyn, FDP, JJEngle, Roussow and Kirchner arent up to this level and that will be the AB focus.

I thought Kev Mealamu had one of his best games in a while on the weekend. Nice to see the old war horses still have some petrol in the tanks.

SA have made a step up but that doesn't mean NZ are static or stagnating. SA are a step ahead in the development of certain areas but NZ has made impressive development in certain areas as well and is ahead in other areas. On balance it looks pretty even and home advantage should help a lot.

It's not so much gaining parity. The sides have different focuses to assess that. It's about making gains in certain areas and making that advantage count on the scoreboard when you need it to. That also means being able to withstand what your opponents can throw at you as well. SA already have the tools to gain parity. It's not an issue of making giant leaps of progress. It's more an issue of refining what you're doing and finding ways to exploit those upward swings in a match.

Think the ABs just might have too much nous for the Boks but this is a very powerful looking young SA side.

The game desperately needs a strong Boks side so from a neutral perspective it's great that they have mounted a such serious challenge this year...regardless of what happens they look in a very good place 2 years out from the RWC...

I think SA should win this one, Ellis Park is a difficult place for foreign teams and with Morne in that side, he'll be deadly from his own 10metre line.

I'd make a couple of changes especially in the tight 5 though... I'd drop Jannie for Coenie. Adriaan for Bismarck, Juandre for Flip.
Jannie's time has come and Coenie adds a bit of ball carrying options. Bismarck is needed for his ruck work and Juandre is a top lineout operator who NZ will worry about. Flip is a different type of player.

I think Zane is a bit of a worry... got found out vs NZ a few weeks back. Under the high ball I'd prefer Morne in centre field to return the kick, even Le Roux.... although Zane has good hands so under threat of the high ball I think he's the right man at the moment.

flip v d Merwe has received a one week ban.

I wonder whether Pieter steph du Toit will get a call up?

We need Lambie to get game time.

yeah forgot about that.

Not so sure about Lambie myself.... I'd want Morne on the pitch for the kicks. Perhaps at 15 but how much game time has he had there? Against an AB backline I would worry about putting him at 15.

Well it is too late now, isn't it?

Hopefully Lambie gets to play in Europe.

He will do and with Morne going to Paris its only a matter of time that he steps up.... Goosen will return but only time will tell with his injuries.

What really is the point of this game?stupid question?NO !! whoever wins is irrelevant in the
Big picture.Don`t do the maths but don`t think an away AB loss would mean a change of
IRB number one.Because of the Home advantage and travel factor the 3/4Ns has been a
TACTICAL BATTLE.Win as many games as possible versus other sides,pick up most points
elsewhere win your home game expect to lose the away game.THAT is exactly the scene
this weekend.Selection will be important but if players can`t get motivated for a SAvAB
match they don`t deserve the shirt.TheVideo Guy is the most important man today seeking
out weakness/strengths.Other games are irrelevant AB scrum shaky?maybe at Eden Park
first scrum AB`s monstered Penalty.[second shove].Minutes later BISMARCK still on field
Scrum Bok feed,going up on the second shove should have been penalised wasn't.Great
Lineout?first one clean catch[Bok] then drops ball.I think Boks lost 3 on there own throw,
AB`s were no better.Numbers in a Lineout is no excuse call shortened ones,performance
versus Argentina away?Boks struggled there too.Australia started the season relatively well
then went backwards as media screamed for change.Familiar AB`s 1998,2009?
Bismarck incident is in a way lucky for him,the first card mistake probably saved him a suspension.The Second though clumsy looked bad to the outsider and the Citing Panel
have suspended players for similar incidents.
IF Owen Franks doesn't mend hope Ben replaces him,he`s solid at TH useful at LH but
more important has experience at this level.The Rookie hasn't promising but you need
to be nous with the tricks of the "Front row Mafia" at this level.Expect Fourie Du Preez
starting to police Aron Smith,maybe even Piri Weepu on the bench for this one.
By the way whatever happened to Andre Taylor he was supposed to be one of the coming men.

Whats the point of this Bok vs. ABs match?

If the ABs can get one over at Ellis Park it will be a huge marker for them. If the Boks can beat NZ then likewise.

In both teams, certain players have to emerge in the big games if they are to reach the next level. Its not a question of being world class, in these 2 nations, thats a given if you're selected in the first place.
But each side is building for the RWC, each will want key players to come through and its these sorts of games which proves the standout performers to those who just can't quite grasp it.

Its about bragging rights too... even if the boks lose the championship I doubt NZ will feel good if they lose and it comes down to SA missing a bonus point at least due to the issues from the last game.

We've got to change the point of attack and quickly to get gainline advantage. I think it'll be a struggle as I've seen a few AB sides get completely stifled at Ellis Park from the Boks' being so pumped and using their rush defence well. Take the fire out, and wait for the game to settle down. That's when the ABs are at their most dangerous as teams are more likely to lose concentration then.

I really like Luatua but he didn't impose himself from the bench on Saturday so I think Messam should start and this will be a huge game for him. Nonu was fantastic and gave another reminder of just how good he is when he's focused.

Scrum again is a weakness that can be exploited in more areas of the field due to altitude.

I actually think Du Preez doesn't make that much of a difference anymore when he plays NZ. Sure his kicking game is great but it's not 09 any more. We've learned how to catch. So much so that we're the best bomb defusers going around at present. As for the other areas of his game, we've managed to neutralise Genia when he's been playing well but that's do to with the pack-du Preez doesn't snipe as often. NZ will have to be on their toes but I imagine they should be ok. Steyn can afford to stand deeper on the veldt so putting pressure on kickers won't happen as often.

I'm picking the Boks. But the head says NZ can definitely break some hearts and if I were a Saffa I wouldn't feel comfortable by any means.

By the way screw all this talk about laying down markers for the World Cup. This is as big as it gets outside of it and NZ has laid down all sorts of markers before and during cups only to come a cropper. This is the now. SA are playing bloody well. NZ are too. Best two teams going around. As is almost always the case. This is NZ's bogey ground and SA's fortress. Ooh I can't wait!

I see McCaws never played a test there and we havnt won there since 97 or something like that. FDP's passing is his strength and its better than Pienaars by some distance. Agree he doesnt do the ABs well and hes key for the Boks here. He and Steyn are both key and unsettling the two will be on of the goals. The Habana- JJ Engel- Roussow- Kirchner cobination will be the other- it was lightweight at Eden park and needs to improve for SA to have a chance- previously theyd gone well so they just might do a better here.

What we have going for us is experience across the park, combinations working well and Hansens preparation for his biggest test to date will be critical. I think we'll see some big hitting to try to soften up the Boks before as Disney says, settling down and cutting the backs loose.

Forget that its Ellis park- its business as usual has to be the thinking, albeit with some extra ketchup to spice it up...

This weekend the AllBlacks go to Ellis Park record 11,4-7 only at Kings Park.Bloemfontain
have they a worse record.The travel factor,crowd and High Veldt are all factors favouring
the Boks.Forget RWC`s these two sides,with possibly the Lions have contested the World
title since 1921.The Boks have a proud record at least two Grand Slams in Europe during
days.Only side to beat the AllBlacks on a full tour in NZ[Lions aside]during touring days
that meant no holds barred literally.Spotting key players,home team refs,provincial sides
knocking the hell out of you.GREAT DAYs sadly the money first era is now the order of the
the card system ruining games.For what in amateur days would be just part of the game
are we better for it?Rules so complicated bothsides can be pinged at every scrum/lineout
or breakdown.During Touring days except the period when the AB`s had no Scrum[1937/49] went to the home side.Politics with apartheid and its reverse form has bedevilled games twixt
these two sides since 1921.Often wonder what the games won/lost tally would be if the
tours had continued post 1981.
But back to the point if as expected the Boks win without a bonus point SA fans will be livid
because the 4Ns will be lost.
Looking at the 4Ns overall this year Australia started relatively well,but injuries and doubts
as to best team/game plan has seen them in gradual decline.
Conversely Argentina started poorly and are finishing strongly,IF the 4Ns is won on points
difference Boks shuld be glad they played them first.
Because I`m Sure the AB`s would have scored heavily in that first match too.
Not much of a prediction Boks by about 10,4Ns to the AB`s on bonus points.

think thats the likeliest SA win scenario, my hope is they go for the doctor. Theyd lose a new level of respect if they dont go for the tries throughout, wasting a potential great moment in the games history.

South Africa must go for the tries in their usual manner.

We aren't going to all of a sudden run the All Blacks ragged.

We win through structure and doing the normal thing.

Helter skelter will only suit the All Blacks, the would love us to go all running around the park and create counter opportunities.

We must change only one thing.

Keep ball in hand more.

fa0019, thought we agreed Morne's past his sell by date? I think he'll be a liability at FB, be exposed. Don't you think the boks will be carrying a passenger having him in the side for the chance of a drop goal or two?
Be a cracker of a game. I normally support the kiwis when they're not playing us, but this game I'll be barracking for the boks, mainly cause I think if they lose this one they may lose direction in their rebuild, which has been looking good this season.
The kiwis are number one, we know that, but it'll do the boks good for their team plans if they win this and good for the kiwis to lose for them to get even stronger back up plans.
My 2c worth.

Biltong wrote:South Africa must go for the tries in their usual manner.

We aren't going to all of a sudden run the All Blacks ragged.

We win through structure and doing the normal thing.

Helter skelter will only suit the All Blacks, the would love us to go all running around the park and create counter opportunities.

We must change only one thing.

Keep ball in hand more.

agree with that. Does the selection of Steyn and FDP support that thinking though?

Taylorman wrote:

Biltong wrote:South Africa must go for the tries in their usual manner.

We aren't going to all of a sudden run the All Blacks ragged.

We win through structure and doing the normal thing.

Helter skelter will only suit the All Blacks, the would love us to go all running around the park and create counter opportunities.

We must change only one thing.

Keep ball in hand more.

agree with that. Does the selection of Steyn and FDP support that thinking though?

for now it has to.

Goosen is injured, Lambie has had no game time, Sarel Pretorius and Piet van Zyl has had no opportunity.

Fourie du Preez is tactically sound and knows how to get the ball out, Morne plays too deep, but can still get the ball wide.

I have no issue with Fourie du Preez, but Morne is the only option currently.

I agree with Biltong. Just because a team isn't as expansive as another doesn't mean their method is any less effective at scoring tries given the right level of dominance.

NZ are adept at all approaches of play which is why they create and score more than anyone else. But if SA can dominate them physically and at set piece then they can kick to the corners from miles away and maul/smash their way over. It only has to happen four times.

That 40-26 scoreline should be a stark reminder that South Africa can do that sort of damage with backs as well as forwards and NZ are by no means home and hosed.

Its the keeping the ball in hand part that will prove difficult. FDP and Steyn in particular get rid of the ball like theres no tomorrow as part of their natural game- they tend to assume oppositions will make mistakes too much. So does Kirchner at the back. Against the ABs it might work but seldom results in tries. And all the while it keeps taking the SA 3/4s out of the attack.

I am beginning to think Taylorman protests too much.

Everything is conjecture,the AB`s have one luxury to win the 4Ns the Boks have to force the
game.A considerable lead by whatever means for either side will decide how the game is played.Accordinging to some posters here the AllBlacks can`t scrummage,win lineouts,or the
breakdown area.There defence so poor all the Boks have to do is kick to the corners,where
they will win every lineout and maul over the 4 tries.
On what evidence is this based,Eden Park where the Boks Lineout fell apart?7 or 8 men that
is just practice.The Scrum where even Argentina have struggled against the second shove
and have incidentally probably.THE BEST Scrum in World Rugby one Maul when the ABs
didn't commit enough men to defend the Maul.Or the one versus 13 men?YES the Boks have
excellent set pieces but the AllBlacks isn`t THAT bad.
Certainly I expect the Boks to win but Meyer wants the 4Ns too so they will have to play some ball in hand too.
A cautionary tale RWC 2011 first match versus Wales a beautifully constructed try in the
first minute.Unfortunately the player involved was injured and the match became a dogfight
Wales expected one thing.The Boks caught them cold by running at them,take nothing for
granted.The match will be won by adjusting the gameplan on the hoof not wait till half time or
whatever.

Biltong wrote:I am beginning to think Taylorman protests too much.

probably biltong, must be nearing kickoff. Like Eden park it might be that all the anlysis goes out the window and we get something completely unexpected again this time, some controversial moment etc cos something unusual is more likely in a boks Ab match over the years it seems.

I hope the SA play their own game, hard and fast, ruck, maul and smash us. I hope they score 4 tries. I hope we match them up front most of the time and make some amazing breaks from errors and broken play. I hope we score 4 tries too. Of course I want to win but won't be too upset if we lose as long as the rugby is GREAT!.

Of course if they score four tries and win but we score four tries then everyone will be a little upset.

If they score four tries, lead by 14 and then two springboks are sin binned for the last ten and NZ come back with a try of their own to be within 7, and the yellows see a bit dodgy then the world will probably explode.

 

GloriousEmpire wrote:If they score four tries, lead by 14 and then two springboks are sin binned for the last ten and NZ come back with a try of their own to be within 7, and the yellows see a bit dodgy then the world will probably explode.

Im half expecting something to go sour with this one. Its too good to be true to expect a great rugby match. The tension will affect someone or something, and thats not excluding the ref, who has a daunting job for his pay this week.

What if macaw gets red carded after 10 mins but the ABs go on to win 9-3. Wow that would be a game!

I can't help but think of this scene every time I see this thread.

When all is said and done IF the Boks win by more than 8 points,and score 4 tries I Will be
among the first to congratulate them.It is good these things aren't just a thing of there is
only one side in a game.The 3/4Ns norm has always been based on home wins then pick
up the points you can.Long may it be treated as real tournament where the strongest
possible sides are picked.The result means nothing to me providing it is straight win/draw
as an AB supporter want a win but NOT another controversy and of course another 4Ns
locked away.

Eben Ezebeth the new Bakkies to get a red card for foul play.

Etzebeth is not the new bakkies... Bakkies would still give him a proper kicking.

He's more like Mark Andrews and Ian Jones for me.

He's just an easily wound up kid.... opposition will target him because he will lash out stupidly if provoked... bakkies, wouldn't lash out stupidly, he's just chin you.

I don't think he will get a red but he's always liable for giving away a stupid yellow. Needs someone like bismarck to give him a proper beasting.. then again... remember that hit he put on Bismarck last year.... never seen him thrown backwards and wobbly legged before.

Etzebeth looks the goods all right. Great talent at such a young age. Would like to see him and Whitelock together. Both seem very adept at the grunt and the lineout work.

Hope him and his team play bloody well. Just also hope NZ play better.

McCaw's presence will lift the NZ scrum a little on that side-the one that had problems in La Plata-but not as much as we had hoped as Owen Franks is out.

Etzebeth comes from good stock. Half his family were bouncers. Uncle is world masters wrestling champion, wouldnt want to meet him in a fight club.

yeah, they come from the same area as my vrou, she knows the family... she knows little about rugby but when I mentioned this new kid a few years ago called Etzebeth from Goodwood, she said, "ah... I think I know the family, all thugs"!!!

I think 2 of his uncles were WP men, one a lock and one a prop. Thats some education for you.

The point I was making is they both get in trouble a lot on the field. Every time I watch Ezebeth play he seems to do something dirty, same with Bakkies. Thats all.

Etzebeth has been very clean this year.

Biltong wrote:Etzebeth has been very clean this year.

In general or by his standards?

He hasn't hit one player, had no yellow cards, no citings , no headbutts, nothing.

Well, if he hasn't head butted anyone this year yet he must be doing something right

He has actually never head butted anyone, Nathan Sharpe niggled him last year to get a negative response from a new player, Etzebeth mimmicked a headbutt, but never went through with it. sharpe made such an act he should have recieved an Oscar for his performance and that got Etzebeth banned.

I suppose Sharpe got what he wanted though.

Con an inexperienced player into a ban.

Biltong wrote:Etzebeth has been very clean this year.

Out in the bush it's hard to find running water sometimes. SA players have been called dirty before but it's been misinterpreted.  

Etzebeth is a freak. How can someone so big be so athletic. He bends down like a coiled viper and we know the ball's going to him and he'll strike but he just gets up so high so quick. It's despairing and awe-inspiring to watch at the same time.

The All Blacks will be watching. A gullible player and another man advantage might be part of the plan...

Phew, it is great to hear that Etzebeth has actually never head butted anyone on the rugby field. Great player biltong, no doubt about it:)

Watching for what exactly? Are you suggesting the ABs are about to enter into the dark side?

Etzebeths one major weakness is his stature..... He's a little top heavy and if you can isolate him ball in hand then he can be tipped over and loses possession. At the stormers we always put a man on his shorts to keep him balanced on contact, it sometimes happens at the boks but less so and a good side will know this.

Great player though... We're lucky to have him.

I think hes been the stand out bok all year. After a couple of early niggles at what ...20? hes matured into one of the best locks in world rugby and I think biltongs right...not a foot wrong this year. Hes very visible on the field and a handful for any opposition. big test for him this weekend as it is for all players, discipline crucial in this hot furnace equivalent.

I have just viewed the NZvs Argentina game,for various reasons not watched it before.
Owen Franks had recently sustained a groin injury,in the first Scrum the AB Scrum went
down on the Tight Head side.The AB scrum was under pressure,BUT didn't collapse in the
First Half.Conditions under foot were difficult,and Franks went off half time injured. Stuart
Barnes made several comments about the AB scrum being under pressure.In the Second
half with a fit TH the Argentina Scrum was under pressure BUT not a word mentioned.
In the first Match also in difficult conditions neither scrum was really dominant so reserve
judgement on a poor AB scrum.On 3 line out drives by Argentina to attempt to score it
was broken up by the AB defence.The AB lineout was again solid and a drive lead to the
final try.The AB`s under severe territorial pressure behind on the board on 3 times were
patient,absorbed the pressure then struck.
Argentina have lost 2 games this 4Ns by a single point and the were held try less.
The BOK supporters[some] have rubbished the AB set piece they may well be surprised
Mike Cron the AB Scrum guru is the best in the business and will be working hard on it.
My previous comments still apply I think the Boks will win but more likely from the boot
than the tryline.Conversely the AB`s can just go for the win the points are in the bank
the Boks have to earn them.Hopefully they won`t get the points because to have a 4Ns
decided on points difference.Bok supporters will say Eden P ark shouldn't have been a BP
win.AB`s Fans say first Argentina match should be a BP win on with the motley:hug: