My Ireland 15 for autumn internationals

First topic message reminder :

Time for a post on Irelands team for the upcoming intenationals for what will be a very testing start for Schmidt. I'm going conservative for the first game focusing on win v Samoa ahead of developing players and experimenting.

Healy, Best, Ross, Ryan, POC, SOB, Heaslip, O'Mahoney, Murray, Sexton, Bowe, Darcy, BOd, Earls, Kearney.

Dont think Zebo's form warrants a start. I am also thinking Luke Marshall (while i'm a big fan) might be a better option v australia as with darcy/bod a safer defensive partnership. Second row partner besde POC is where i'm struggling with. McCarthy i've been a fan, o'callaghan i think is past his best, toner still too untested and not sure if touhy poc would work.

Front row, back row, half backs and back three are fairly close imho to starting 15.

The Great Aukster wrote:
The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

A year ago I'd have agreed Aukster but I'd say now that the Samoa game is key because in all likelihood we'll lose the others - maybe badly.

There's more chance of Joe winning the lottery than us beating the ABs this autumn I'm afraid.

rodders wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:
The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

A year ago I'd have agreed Aukster but I'd say now that the Samoa game is key because in all likelihood we'll lose the others - maybe badly.

There's more chance of Joe winning the lottery than us beating the ABs this autumn I'm afraid.

Why do you think we'll lose to a very poor Australia side that show no signs of improvement.

rodders wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:
The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

A year ago I'd have agreed Aukster but I'd say now that the Samoa game is key because in all likelihood we'll lose the others - maybe badly.

There's more chance of Joe winning the lottery than us beating the ABs this autumn I'm afraid.

Agree on both points. Samoa is a must win, otherwise confidence going into wallabies takes us back to end of 6 nations. Worth pointing out that Australia have been through 6 v tough games and trashed argentina in the last game so are no pushovers. I'm just hoping we dont get spanked by the ABs. Saving grace could be that new zealand will experiment and we give em a decent game.

2 wins 1 loss would be a great outcome.
1 win 2 losses is acceptable
0 from 3 is a potential outcome given they are deservedly ranked higher than us.

I think the team could click under Schmidt quicker than people think. The Leinster lads know what to expect and the other provinces have Kiwi coaches. All the Kiwi coaches are slightly different but they all want their teams to be able to play expansive rugby. Schmidt and his coaches have also met the players a few times so they should know what to expect and be mentally prepared.


I presume Les Kiss' defensive systems will be the same.

profitius wrote:I think the team could click under Schmidt quicker than people think. The Leinster lads know what to expect and the other provinces have Kiwi coaches. All the Kiwi coaches are slightly different but they all want their teams to be able to play expansive rugby. Schmidt and his coaches have also met the players a few times so they should know what to expect and be mentally prepared.


I presume Les Kiss' defensive systems will be the same.

More than that Schmidt spent a week with the Ulster,Munster and Connacht in preseason actually coaching them so that will have done a lot of good.

These are the only Tests that Schmidt can truly integrate fringe players into the team. They are two years out which is the perfect time to give some players a run and eliminate others who have had their day and won't be around in 2015. If Ireland lose all three games it doesn't affect anything since the ranking is already decided for the next RWC. Ireland won't be able to experiment one year out from the World Cup because they may have to integrate some players like Payne for BOD (and cover injuries).

The 6N can be used for minor tinkering and is a tournament worth winning, so Schmidt will be judged far more harshly on the team's performance there than his first tentative steps this Autumn. Building a squad and viable options is crucial to winning silver, surely Schmidt won't sacrifice that opportunity by playing his "strongest XV" every game?

The next game isn't always the most important in the quest to achieve a long term goal.

The Great Aukster wrote:Schmidt has very limited opprotunities to build a squad. He will have a 31 man squad for the RWC and should be rotating those 31 players now over these three games to get them playing time together. So what if Ireland get beaten by Samoa? Wales lost against Samoa but still won the 6N - which is more important?

The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks.

+1

This is the way I'm feeling although I see the points of those who disagree. What I'm very interested to see is Schmidt's effect on the backrow. POM, SOB and Heaslip may be our 3 best backrows currently but as a unit have they ever really clicked in a top level international? I might be wrong but the first half against Wales last year is all that springs to my mind...

You have a point but I would go for it for Samoa.

However Henry needs to play against Australia to contest the breakdown

I think he'll probably use about 25-30 players and maybe use about 20-22 different starters.

There will definitely be a core of players who play every game.

There are a few positions which should be up for grabs

Healy -nailed on
Best - I have him well ahead but Cronin should start 1 test
Moore/Fitz- Ross looks shot at this point and needs a couple of big performances. Both those guys have done well and I wouldn't rule out Archer. Depends on the next three games.
POC- nailed on.
Up for grabs- Ryan hasn't set the world alight to be penned in. Tuohy has done very well keeping Henderson out. The latter could be picked on the basis of looking forward. Wouldn't rule out the Leinster 2nd rows either. Let's see who the form pick is.
O'Mahoney -looks a decent bet to me.
O'Brien- nailed on
Heaslip - nailed on
Murray - nailed on
Sexton - nailed on
Earls- form pick at present but not nailed on. Trimble and Gilroy may have something to say but certainly at present I think he looks good
Marshall- if olding was back sooner he may have put more pressure on. D'arcy isn't an option with this being BODs last year. We need a 12 bedded in now
BOD - nailed on barring injury I would imagine. Possibly a chance for someone else to start one test though
Bowe- nailed on
Kearney- nailed on. His form pre-ospreys was a worry but there is quite simply no one else

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

rodders wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:
The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

A year ago I'd have agreed Aukster but I'd say now that the Samoa game is key because in all likelihood we'll lose the others - maybe badly.

There's more chance of Joe winning the lottery than us beating the ABs this autumn I'm afraid.

Why do you think we'll lose to a very poor Australia side that show no signs of improvement.

Apart from destroying Argentina on their home soil? I don't think we are anywhere near good enough player wise to think we have the edge, even at home. If we win 1 from 3 we'll have done well - all these teams are ranked above us.

I think that second lock spot is more widely open than it has been in years aside from injuries! When was the last time everyone was fit and there was such a variety of options who could go in there, not all great options, we don't have two world class locks but there are a lot of guys going for one position and nobody is clearly infront.

I'd say the 6 jersey deserves to be more open too.

Nice to see some competition at tighthead prop too.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:I think that second lock spot is more widely open than it has been in years aside from injuries!

Yeah I think the options are actually quite limited as only O'Connell can bind on either side of the scrum(maybe Henderson?), although he prefers the loosehead side. Effectively Ryan and Toner are competing and then McCarthy and Touhy.

Given the new scrum laws this is even more important - and you have to think about the bench too. If Toner is on the bench and O'Connell gets injured then Toner would be binding down alongside Ryan which would put our scrum under massive pressure.

Getting the right combo is vital - and also Henderson becomes very important on the bench. This is a tricky area for Schmidt, especially so as we don't have the strongest tight heads to select from.

rodders wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

rodders wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:
The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

A year ago I'd have agreed Aukster but I'd say now that the Samoa game is key because in all likelihood we'll lose the others - maybe badly.

There's more chance of Joe winning the lottery than us beating the ABs this autumn I'm afraid.

Why do you think we'll lose to a very poor Australia side that show no signs of improvement.

Apart from destroying Argentina on their home soil? I don't think we are anywhere near good enough player wise to think we have the edge, even at home. If we win 1 from 3 we'll have done well - all these teams are ranked above us.

Australia have some very average players. I would be disappointed to lose to Australia at home. They played well against Argentina but Argentina were bad that day.

For me Henderson is a no brainer for lock bench spot. I think he offers the most variation, impact and the most cover.

I accept what you are saying rodders about the importance of locks in scrum and how limited we are in terms of bench options in a roundabout way when we actually have a few options.

I think beating 2 teams (Aus and Samoa) has to be the main achievable goal. We should really be expecting to beat them IMO.

Argentina played poorly last autumn but we took the result didn't we? We shouldn't be underestimating the task ahead for Schmidt nor the quality of the opposition this autumn.

The gap between us and the ABs is as wide as I can remember since the game went pro. Samoa are a tier 1 team these days and whilst the Wallabies are in some disarray I think it is fanciful to think we are a stronger side on the basis of their loses to the Lions, NZ and SA. They have some serious quality still and we are firm underdogs I think.

If we do win 2 from 3 then Joe should get the freedom of Dublin, Limerick and Belfast.... its not impossible but it is a huge ask.

I don't think so Rodders, agree re: Samoa and NZ but Australia have looked poor for quite some time now IMO.

You also have to take into account rodders that Australia have looked this bad in their 'big' games, or rather the ones they focus on. Now they will of course want to win but numerous touring Aussie sides have faced the (justified) criticism of not wanting to be in the NH a the end of a long season coming into winter when they would rather be on the beach. I'm not saying thats the case with this side but only time will tell.

No that is a good point Stand but given the stick this crowd have got I can't see them not being motivated this autumn.

It will be interesting to see how the bledisoe cup game goes this weekend. They aren't unbeatable but I don't agree with anyone who thinks we will be favourites against them.

Sout Africa got a lot of joy in the wide chanels against NZ in that amazing game. I would love to see Madigan have a go against them with the range of passing he has.
I think Mads picking out passes for BOD, Marhsall and particularly Bowe could be a really exciting option.

It might be exciting but the lad needs to see gametime ahead of Gopperth in order to secure the bench spot never mind see gametime ahead of Sexton v NZ

I wouldn't have said Jackson had a chance of displacing Madigan and taking the bench spot a few weeks ago, but lo and behold Madigan has had a poor game and got dropped whilst Jackson has started nailing his placekicks and running the game with real authority. Jackson coming into form whilst Madigan loses his place- interesting.

But I think Madigan will get picked for Castres at the RDS. If you want a guy to kick the points and run the game for tough away game it's Gopperth right now. If you want someone to attack and try things and chase the try bonus point it's Madigan.

It's gonna be a close call for Schmidt in the autumn. 50/50? Still think Madigan has the edge as we're more likely to need someone to open up the game off the bench. I'm not too concerned how many caps Jackson wins this year though, the main thing is that he consistently performs in big games for Ulster and if he does that in the long run his international career will look after itself.

Standulstermen wrote:You also have to take into account rodders that Australia have looked this bad in their 'big' games, or rather the ones they focus on. Now they will of course want to win but numerous touring Aussie sides have faced the (justified) criticism of not wanting to be in the NH a the end of a long season coming into winter when they would rather be on the beach. I'm not saying thats the case with this side but only time will tell.

In fairness SA and the ABs will make most teams look average to poor, so its not really a good indicator whether we should be able to beat them. Australia are not to be underestimated and i'd have them as favorites against us.

There are two many variables and unknowns in both camps to have a favourite. Samoa are up first aren't they? If so odds might be levant after that but until we get a look at Schmidts Ireland its hard to say

Notch wrote:I wouldn't have said Jackson had a chance of displacing Madigan and taking the bench spot a few weeks ago, but lo and behold Madigan has had a poor game and got dropped whilst Jackson has started nailing his placekicks and running the game with real authority. Jackson coming into form whilst Madigan loses his place- interesting.

Shows what can happen in a few weeks! This weekend there'll be more players putting their hands up throughout the squad.


The Ireland squad might be announced next week. Schmidt said they'll pick the squad after the second heineken cup round.

The Great Aukster wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Regarding Experimenting - agreed a tough side which is why I suggest experimentation is confined to the bench not the starting 15

While I'd normally agree the fact is we have 3 tough games in 3 weeks and we can't play the same 15 every time.That said Marshall would be better able to play all 3 than BoD,I'd also like to see some rotation in the back row and at prop.

Schmidt has very limited opprotunities to build a squad. He will have a 31 man squad for the RWC and should be rotating those 31 players now over these three games to get them playing time together. So what if Ireland get beaten by Samoa? Wales lost against Samoa but still won the 6N - which is more important?

The only truly important game this Autumn is the one v the All Blacks - that is the benchmark and since Ireland have never beaten them, to do so would be massive. The Samoa and Australia games should be used to try combinations without flogging the same XV players for the three matches, especially in the pack. The crescendo would then be the shot at breaking the hoodoo with players both fit and picked on form.

Excellent post. I wholeheartedly agree. Peoples expectations  get really skewed sometimes.

I would imagine he will go for all 3 though. And I would imagine he will use up to 30 players doing it. Getting the blend right for different opposition, utilising his squad to the max and having the ability to correct it all mid-game, should it fail,  are some of his greatest strengths. He is not Deccie.  We could end up with 1 from 3 and feel really good about our future. I want to see us build a decent, competitive, skilful, defensively tight, attack-minded squad, for the next 5/6 years. Not just for the RWC.    Quick-fixes never work. It will take time. Give him time. We have wasted 15 years already. Lets get this one right, long-term.

I Believe like never before now. I'd lost the Faith.   

Happy enough with that squad. Not enough Leinster players in it though. Joe is over-compensating... It reeks of tokenism.

I'd almost argue he other way. Surprised Trimble, Felix and Gilroy did not make the cut. Good to see a couple of uncapped in the squad though.

Felix is injured again unfortunately. Although I don't think it will keep him out that long.

littlejohn wrote:I'd almost argue he other way. Surprised Trimble, Felix and Gilroy did not make the cut. Good to see a couple of uncapped in the squad though.

I didn't think Trimble would make it. He is too error prone for Schmidts liking and his performance against Leicester was terrible, in front of the Ireland coaches made it worse.


Same with Felix Jones. Too error prone, too injury prone and does little in an attacking sense.


Gilroy hasn't kicked on from last season and is after a few injuries.

Heres a team of players who didn't make the squad!
Some players left out are O'Callaghan, Marmion, Wilson, Moore, Luke Fitzgerald, Trimble, Olding, Cave, Gilroy, Kilcoyne, James Cronin, Keatley,
Injured Stephen Ferris (Ulster), Richardt Strauss (Leinster), Tommy O’Donnell (Munster), Jordi Murphy (Leinster), Simon Zebo (Munster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), Iain Henderson (Ulster).


Kilcoyne, Strauss, Moore
Henderson, Ryan
O'Donnell, Ferris, Jordi Murphy
Keatley, Marmion
Zebo, Luke Fitz, Olding, Gilroy
Morris

Subs: Lutton, Varley, j Cronin, DOC, Copeland, JJ Hanrahan, P Marshall, Trimble

[forgot about Cave!]

Just shows the dept we are beginning to build.

profitius wrote:

littlejohn wrote:I'd almost argue he other way. Surprised Trimble, Felix and Gilroy did not make the cut. Good to see a couple of uncapped in the squad though.

I didn't think Trimble would make it. He is too error prone for Schmidts liking and his performance against Leicester was terrible, in front of the Ireland coaches made it worse.


Same with Felix Jones. Too error prone, too injury prone and does little in an attacking sense.


Gilroy hasn't kicked on from last season and is after a few injuries.

Gilroy will fine in a few weeks. Should be in the 6N squad
Trimble was the best winger in Ireland last year but hasn't played well this

Whilst winning is important, I personally would like to see Schmidt looking towards the 2015 RWC and that will be evident by his selection for the AI's and the 6N. I for one hope he is looking to the future as stated we are starting to have real depth in the Irish set up, don't let it slip keep it going. Would I accept 3 losses (AI) YES I would if I could see what he was trying to achieve.