England v New Zealand match thread

[quinsforever]

First topic message reminder :

2.30pm at Twickenham on Saturday.

Betfair has england 5:1 against. Sounds about right to me.

Are NZ wearing black this time? I hope so. don't think France or anyone else found the Haka quite the same performed in what looked like white gym T-shirts.

My prediction, fwiw (and i know that's not much), NZ to win by 6, england to dominate at scrums, lineouts 50:50, 60% possession England but Joubert tough (but predictable and consistent) on holding on means isolated possession gives NZ the scoring edge from penalties, and NZ classically more clinical with open/broken field possession.

Really looking forwards to it though.

Anyone going?

[beshocked]

Linebreaker I completely disagree. Virtually all the pressure is on the ABs. Like last year everyone expects NZ to win. NZ have a lot of weight on their shoulders - the best side in the world, unbeaten going up against a side they should not have lost to last season.

England in comparison are not expected to win. The difference in centres is a big part of this.  

36 and Tomkins do not pose the same threats defensively and offensively as Barritt and Tuilagi.

Realistically NZ should avenge their defeat but they will be aware of what England can do and that might lead to pressure and trying to force proceedings.

I actually think it's completely the other way round, Beshocked.

Last year, you hadn't won against NZ for 9 or so years and everybody expected the status quo to remain. It was a major upset in other words. A one off if you like.

This year, it's completely different. Sure, pressure on both sides. You won't hear the NZ players mention 'revenge' but it will be there in the form of 'utu' (the silent, more painful version) as kia has noted.

I thought England always 'expects' to win... like any other side but the reality is what we know. I don't think NZ will feel threatened by 'what England can do' - rather they'll just do their utmost to make sure that what happened last year doesn't happen again.
They have a different approach to pressure than most teams and I would be very surprised to see them forced into too many errors.

Linebreaker no one expects England to beat NZ. England will always be the underdogs till they prove otherwise. Yes they beat them once but it doesn't happen often as you obviously know. It would be yet another upset if England win.

You are talking up NZ again - surely NZ won't lose again...etc. That adds weight onto NZ. The best side in the world should avenge their defeat. They should not be losing to England.

England hit NZ with a sucker punch courtesy of Manu last season. NZ are capable of feeling pressure like any side but sides need to pile it on. England don't have Manu this time which adds more pressure onto NZ.

People have said time and again England have not performed well in the AIs yet they've got the results.

England are portrayed as a poor team with mediocre players yet are 3rd in the world. Their 1 loss in 10 games was against away in Cardiff against a fired up Welsh side who put in one of their best ever performances.

Generally teams save their best performances for teams they really want to beat. That's the way Wales handled England, it's the way England handled NZ.

Raising your game for teams better than yourself is not surprising.

New Zealand have a point to prove. The pressure is on.

[gregortree]

"FoundinEngland"
or in other words "PaddingtonBear"

[Poorfour]

One thing that's not been mentioned is where the teams are in their respective seasons.

The SH sides are nearing the end of their season and have been together for a couple of months. They've had 6 games apiece in the Rugby Championship and a bit of time to settle. Not many new combinations on show.

The NH are at thestart of their season and had had at most 2-3 weeks in training before the first tests. The England side that faced Australia had never played together before. In fact, only the front row was a combination that had ever taken the field together. Did it show? Of course it did.

The side that played the first half against Argentina was markedly more together and some of the offloading and movement in attack was streets ahead of what we'd seen before. The subs started early in the second half and the team lost its shape in the face of an Argentine side who upped their game a fair bit.

It was the same pattern last season. England were disjointed against Australia and never looked like winning, much better against South Africa (and may well have nicked it had Mouritz Botha left the flippin' kick off alone), and found a level of coherence against NZ that they maintained at the start of the 6N until a couple of key injuries (specifically Morgan, Corbs and Vunipola) took their toll on the squad.

Things are different this year. NZ are less jaded and presumably are keeping thir lunches down, England are missing Tuilagi, amongst others. It would be a bit daft to confidently predict an England win, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a close contest - and I think that if England find themselves in the position that France were in on Saturday, they will be more likely to convert pressure into points.

[GloriousEmpire]

One thing that's not been mentioned is where the teams are in their respective seasons.

The SH sides are nearing the end of their season and have been together for a couple of months. They've had 6 games apiece in the Rugby Championship and a bit of time to settle. Not many new combinations on show.

The NH are at thestart of their season and had had at most 2-3 weeks in training before the first tests. The England side that faced Australia had never played together before. In fact, only the front row was a combination that had ever taken the field together. Did it show? Of course it did.

The side that played the first half against Argentina was markedly more together and some of the offloading and movement in attack was streets ahead of what we'd seen before. The subs started early in the second half and the team lost its shape in the face of an Argentine side who upped their game a fair bit.

It was the same pattern last season. England were disjointed against Australia and never looked like winning, much better against South Africa (and may well have nicked it had Mouritz Botha left the flippin' kick off alone), and found a level of coherence against NZ that they maintained at the start of the 6N until a couple of key injuries (specifically Morgan, Corbs and Vunipola) took their toll on the squad.

Things are different this year. NZ are less jaded and presumably are keeping thir lunches down, England are missing Tuilagi, amongst others. It would be a bit daft to confidently predict an England win, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a close contest - and I think that if England find themselves in the position that France were in on Saturday, they will be more likely to convert pressure into points.

Erm. Wow. Yes, the "settled" All Blacks. Versus the "rusty" England. I'm frankly sick of hearing this. When the situation is reversed, England are "tired" whereas NZ are "fresh".

As for new combinations, well NZ have plenty of those. Piutau is brand new, Jane returning from injury, smith playing center for the first series. NZ transitioning from stability under DC to a new fly half and Aaron smith despite his apparent maturity in just his second season. Front and second rowers returning from injury...and don't get me started in who is "missing" from NZ.

[sirtidychris]

Its sad to say but without tuilagi we wont do anything in the backline, I'm starting to realise how much we miss barrit as well. Our backs are simply too pants to beat the all blacks. If we had a backline of

Youngs, Flood Yarde, Barrit, Tuilagi, Wade, Brown then i'd be more optimistic but we dont !

[Triangulation]

We're doomed because we are too easy to shut down.

Once shut down the counter is on.

The kiwis wont be all angry and pent up. They'll be relaxed but motivated.

All Blacks by 10+

[Poorfour]

Oh for the love of Mike, GE. Get over yourself. Or go and get a fresh prescription for your paranoia meds or something.

All I was saying is that it isn't a surprise that England started shakily, given that every combination bar one was new. And by new, for the avoidance of doubt, I mean "had never played together competitively before".

English fans and commentators seem to forget that there's a big benefit for experience at international level and are then surprised when an inexperienced team struggles to be slick and maintain intensity. My comments about last year were just intended to show that England have managed to learn quite quickly in the past - but also that they are missing some of the advantages they had going into last year's game. It wasn't intended as some sort of attack on New Zealand and I am sorry if you interpreted it that way.

I didn't follow the RC closely, and I haven't checked out the NZ injury lists, but I would be willing to bet that in the 7 matches they've played so far this season most of the combinations NZ will field have had some game time together. I'll even go so far as to predict that:
i) if we break the team up into 6 units, the AB side on Saturday will have had significantly more experience of playing together in at least 4 of them
ii) The AB bench will have more caps than the English starting XV.

Every team has to integrate new and returning players and cope with injuries. England are doing it from a much lower experience base than just about any other top tier nation right now (the product of Johnno hanging on to his mates for too long), and sometimes I feel that the English press and fans don't give them enough credit for what they HAVE achieved (while recognising there is still a long way to go).

[lostinwales]

Gregortree

GE - how about a prediction then?

STChris - Barritt does seem to be reliability personified, just he isnt often, you know, exciting... Maybe he just fits the current game plan more too

I think it would be great to see Wade start - but he'd have to work hard to ever get the ball

[Cumbrian]

I'm worried that if Wade is selected he won't actually get the ball much and the ball he does get will be after England have crabbed across the pitch and left him with about a foot to play in. You could imagine him becoming quite discouraged if he gets no ball to work with in attack and gets caught out of position/ run over in defence.

[Scrumpy]

The big difference between the two teams for me is that when both England and NZ pass the ball along their backs, NZ are about 20m further down the pitch England just go from side to side.
 
If England can keep in the game for 60/65mins then they would have done well imo.
 
Not expecting a win but I really want to see the forwards take it too them.

[GloriousEmpire]

England are getting glowing write ups in the NZ herald. Everyone is dead impressed with England's tight forward display that "easily subdued" Argentina. They're suggesting England might be superior to SA, and this will be the All Blacks biggest test to date.

I could see it go either way. Might come down a ref call that we can all debate at length later.

[Scrumpy]

That doesn't surprise me GE, I'm really looking forward to watching the forward battle as this is one area I think we can match the AB.

[gregortree]

England are getting glowing write ups in the NZ herald. Everyone is dead impressed with England's tight forward display that "easily subdued" Argentina. They're suggesting England might be superior to SA, and this will be the All Blacks biggest test to date.

I could see it go either way. Might come down a ref call that we can all debate at length later.

That is the one thing I do feel confident about.

[Scrumpy]

 

[fa0019]

SA are a more polished side... just NZ trying to build up the contest and make themselves believe England are a tougher nut to crack then initially thought.

It won't be a push over but Englands lack of established centres will almost certainly put the result beyond them.

[nathan]

i think England will lose, i hope they keep it close though. I think NZ are due a big performance.

No doubt if we do lose the fans will be shouting for wholesale changes to the team.

[Scrumpy]

SA are a more polished side... just NZ trying to build up the contest and make themselves believe England are a tougher nut to crack then initially thought.

It won't be a push over but Englands lack of established centres will almost certainly put the result beyond them.

Agreed.

On another subject, does Dan Carter deserve to start at HQ and earn his 100 cap based on his last two performances?

[Luckless Pedestrian]

I'm worried that if Wade is selected he won't actually get the ball much and the ball he does get will be after England have crabbed across the pitch and left him with about a foot to play in.  You could imagine him becoming quite discouraged if he gets no ball to work with in attack and gets caught out of position/ run over in defence.

But Ashton's not renowned for his defence, is he?

I've said it before, but if Wales were playing England on the weekend, I'd be much less worried if you had Ashton on the wing than if you had Wade there.

[rodders]

I fancy England here actually.

The ABs are starting to look a bit tired and were a bit flat against France...I wonder if the SA game took a lot out of them mentally, it was such an immense performance.

England by 12.

[lostinwales]

England are getting glowing write ups in the NZ herald. Everyone is dead impressed with England's tight forward display that "easily subdued" Argentina. They're suggesting England might be superior to SA, and this will be the All Blacks biggest test to date.

I could see it go either way. Might come down a ref call that we can all debate at length later.

I am sure 'someone' will find a way....

[gregortree]

Might come down a ref call that we can all debate at length later.

Surely  not

[Bullsbok]

I fancy England here actually.

The ABs are starting to look a bit tired and were a bit flat against France...I wonder if the SA game took a lot out of them mentally, it was such an immense performance.

England by 12.

Based on what excatly ? I'm curious

A poor victory against a dodgy Aus side or a brilliant first half against the Pumas ?

[kiakahaaotearoa]

Savea on Ashton's wing is a mouthwatering prospect. Don't think the two are directly opposite but Id put money on the two coming face to face.

NZ backrow was a bit subdued against France. I expect them to be more prominent this Saturday. Changes will be interesting. Will Ramano get a go or Barrett? Luatua covering lock or backrow? Will Crotty be back cover and will Ben Smith slip out to wing?

[Big]

My completely ambiguous prediction - If England can play well for the full 80 minutes (for the first time this autumn) then I'd expectit to be close. Almost certainly a New Zealand win but England would in with a chance. However, if the performance level is anything like the previous matches played this years it could easily be a 15-20 point defeat.

[Bathman_in_London]

The English forwards have played pretty well in the last 2 weeks and will be looking to continue that at the weekend albeit against a far superior backrow unit. England will surely be hoping to gain a small advantage here.

However the reality is NZ are masters at using what possession they have and turn it into points. You just know that backline is going to score tries and sadly I don't get the same impression from the England boys. So even if the English pack gets on top, its hard to see how England can win, unless the English centres play the game of their lives.

My prediction is a NZ win, with a couple of try blitz around the 50-60 minute mark, before letting their foot off the gas a bit so the scoreline ends with England being within 7 or so.

[hugehandoff]

Lancaster has to provide continuity to give the blokes a chance as individuals and combinations take time to settle and perform in international rugby. For that reason I would keep any changes to a minimum. If B.Youngs is your man then he had to start against Argentina but SL surprised us all, but having done that he needs to stick with it and give Dickson a proper go. After all it was only last year that we were all slating B.Youngs for his poor form and sideways movement and slow service. The fact that Dickson is having a go is because neither Youngs or Care have done enough to keep the 9 jersey.

Same argument for 36 and it is no time to bring in Burrell. We were all asking for 36 and Manu combo last year as Barritt offers nothing in attack so keep him there and bring Manu back when fit. Tomkins has not had much of a chance, but hopefully he and Billy's defence will benefit from playing 2 games together.

My only change is on the wings. I would start both Yarde and Wade. Risky but I think we just need to get these two in the side and keep them there. They may spark something and really get the crowd going, which in turn will help the team.

Hopefully the fear of a beating will drive a decent performance out of England.

[Poorfour]

M Vunipola is definitely out, and Marler is recovering from a concussion (but it sounds hopeful that he will play). Mullan has been called up as cover.

I hope Joe recovers - I don't think Corbs is an 80 minute player, and it's a lot to ask Mullan to step in this late. A definite edge to the ABs in the last 20 if Marler isn't cleared.

[lostinwales]

B youngs injured last week but fit for this week - so far... Should be the same for Yarde. Wade is 'doubtful'

[whocares]

I can see Farrell scoring a few penalties if England scrum performs. Am not sure about the english backrow dominating the AB's one. I dont see England scoring tries in open play as the few they scored against argentina were more due to defensive mistakes while NZ are still one of the best defensive teams within their own 22. Am not impressed by the english centres and dont see them breaking NZ line at ease.  
weather permitting, NZ should score a least 2 tries and a couple of penalties so England have to aim to get at least 6 kickable penalties.  Rain will be major factor as would increase the chances of knock-ons.
As GE pointed out, I fear that if this ends up being a close game we will have plenty of discussion about Joubert performance thereafter.

[gregortree]

England 16 v 25 NZ,
yes that is what my tea leaves are telling me.

[quinsforever]

agree re joubert. a question for the SH watchers...last weekend it looked to me that SA in particular were guilty of the first player to the ruck going completely over the ball (not off feet), putting hand/forearm onto the ground beyond the ball, and dragging back towards the ball. made it extremely hard to dislodge that player as there was nothing to aim at to counterruck. I thought putting hands on the ground past the ball and dragging back towards the ball was an infringement? is it not? is it up to the referee's interpretation? how does joubert interpret the ruck/going off feet/sealing off/holding on?

[nobbled]

B youngs injured last week but fit for this week - so far... Should be the same for Yarde. Wade is 'doubtful'

Gutted for Wade - he deserves his shot, and frankly we need his pace - the backs are crap at getting the ball to wingers in space, but Wade has shown he doesn't need much space, and can often create his own.

[Exiledinborders]

agree re joubert. a question for the SH watchers...last weekend it looked to me that SA in particular were guilty of the first player to the ruck going completely over the ball (not off feet), putting hand/forearm onto the ground beyond the ball, and dragging back towards the ball. made it extremely hard to dislodge that player as there was nothing to aim at to counterruck. I thought putting hands on the ground past the ball and dragging back towards the ball was an infringement? is it not? is it up to the referee's interpretation? how does joubert interpret the ruck/going off feet/sealing off/holding  on?

Surely it is an infringement if the hands are used to support the player's weight.

[sirtidychris]

Gregortree

GE - how about a prediction then?

STChris - Barritt does seem to be reliability personified, just he isnt often, you know, exciting... Maybe he just fits the current game plan more too

I think it would be great to see Wade start - but he'd have to work hard to ever get the ball

I always thought barrit was one dimensional however against the all blacks he broke the gain line a couple of times and his distribution was good, like you say he is reliable and you can be damn sure he would of levelled Toomua and stopped his try rather than get flattened like 12trees. I think if we are going to go with Farrell every time the partnership between Farrell and barrit is very important.

P.s I hope Wade doesn't start because coming in from no test warm ups, a minor injury into a cack, crabbing, stagnant english backline against the best team in the world which are looking to prove a massive point = disaster for a young lad....stick ashton in there hopefully it will finally help lancaster decide on whether he's the right man for the england shirt !!!

[gregortree]

agree re joubert. a question for the SH watchers...last weekend it looked to me that SA in particular were guilty of the first player to the ruck going completely over the ball (not off feet), putting hand/forearm onto the ground beyond the ball, and dragging back towards the ball. made it extremely hard to dislodge that player as there was nothing to aim at to counterruck. I thought putting hands on the ground past the ball and dragging back towards the ball was an infringement? is it not? is it up to the referee's interpretation? how does joubert interpret the ruck/going off feet/sealing off/holding  on?

Surely it is an infringement if the hands are used to support the player's weight.

+ 1

[Rugby Fan]

Most England fans felt fairly pessimistic 12 months ago but we won handsomely in the end.

Last year's win was based on denying New Zealand any opportunities in the first half, while Farrell's accuracy gave us the lead, and then a cushion.

Without that cushion, New Zealand's fightback might have overwhelmed us. Instead, we had our noses just in front, which is a sounder basis to start your own response.

Psychologically, the shape of the match worked in our favour because the All Blacks were never allowed to be in charge of the game.

It's extremely unlikely we'll be blessed with 80 minutes like that again. I suspect Hansen will want his men to catch us cold and get on the scoreboard early. New Zealand are an even harder proposition when you have to chase them.

If we are going to spring a surprise, it will be because we have defended like demons.

If it is going to be a loss, I can't make up my mind it would feel better to lose by a small margin - to show we are still in touch with the best - or to take a pasting and get Lancaster focused more on improving our attack.

I hated losing by small margins to South Africa and Australia last year, and I didn't care at all for the hammering we took against Wales. Suspect I am asking myself the wrong question.

P.s I hope Wade doesn't start

Lancaster indicated Wade is almost certainly not going to be fit in time.

[doctor_grey]

Prediction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

[gregortree]

I see the All Blacks played in All White in Paris. That colour certainly gives the French the eebieejeebies.
Was that part of their mind game ?

Glad everybody is back to his proper colours for the Twickenham show down. 
ABs have kept their best shirts in the kit bag until last.

[funnyExiledScot]

I don't think England will win this one. I think the England pack is decent, but I don't rate the midfield of Farrell, 36 and (particularly) Tomkins. The gulf in class there between the ABs and England is vast.

Also on the wings Ashton just doesn't seem his old confident self, and I don't rate Foden as a winger. I've yet to see an ABs team in my lifetime with anything less than top class strike runners, and any combination of the wingers in the ABs squad will be pretty awesome, and Dagg for me is the best 15 on the planet.

Where England are good is 1-8, and the pack work pretty well as a collective in my opinion. NZ have good individual forwards, McCaw and Read in particular, but I think the England forward pack will do ok. I just worry about the backs. So much class and experience in the ABs backline.

[gregortree]

Prediction:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

Doc in fact is that A World Of Pain ? Or am I confusing this with some other guy ?

[gregortree]

Hansen ups the Ante
"There is a real edge going into Twickenham," Hansen said.
"They're going well, we're going okay. Both teams are looking forward to playing. I hear already they're talking about scoring four tries and going to No2 in the world, so they've obviously got a lot of confidence."

Ok, we want to gradually move up.... but where did he get that bit from ?

[doctor_grey]

Prediction:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

Doc in fact is that  A World Of Pain ? Or am I confusing this with some other guy ?

Just a fun prediction for the match.
How about this? Who is England? Who is the ABs?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bigc7GXHU50

[Scrumpy]

"I hear already they're talking about scoring four tries and going to No2 in the world"

Wales Online/Western Mail?

[fa0019]

I think if Carter plays it will help England. Not that he's bad, but rather at the moment I think NZ have better alternatives.

[doctor_grey]

I am still not happy with the England backs.  I think the ABs will test the England pack early, but should find nothing happenning there.  Then they will attack England out wide where England have shown defensive weaknesses, especially with Ashton.  This is where the match will be won or lost, in my opinion.  

We need to attack aggressively up the heart of the AB defense.  And keep the ball moving quickly and powerfully.  If we get the Abs mmoving back, even just a little, we might have a good contest.  Brown at the back will be peppered with kicks.  So will the wings, which makes this one of the ony times I would be happy with another fullback playing back there.  Brown and Foden are the only good attacking backs and will need to eat nails and broken glass for breakfast.

[quinsforever]

Hansen ups the Ante
"There is a real edge going into Twickenham," Hansen said.
"They're going well, we're going okay. Both teams are looking forward to playing. I hear already they're talking about scoring four tries and going to No2 in the world, so they've obviously got a lot of confidence."

Ok, we want to gradually move up.... but where did he get that bit from ?

LOL...he's been drinking from the GE wumming fountain  

[Rugby Fan]

Ok, we want to gradually move up.... but where did he get that bit from ?

He's extrapolating that from Lancaster's comments about wanting to be number 2 in the IRB rankings.

Of course, Lancaster hasn't come anywhere near to suggesting we'll put four tries on them but Hansen isn't shy about going for the wind-up.

[fa0019]

Hansen ups the Ante
"There is a real edge going into Twickenham," Hansen said.
"They're going well, we're going okay. Both teams are looking forward to playing. I hear already they're talking about scoring four tries and going to No2 in the world, so they've obviously got a lot of confidence."

Ok, we want to gradually move up.... but where did he get that bit from ?

I read that Lancaster put it as a goal to be 2nd i the world by the end of the year... but unless the boks lose to either Scotland or France it won't happen. Nothing wrong with that though. Goals are important.

[doctor_grey]

"I hear already they're talking about scoring four tries and going to No2 in the world"
Wales Online/Western Mail?

Someone must be havin a bit o fun with a crack pipe.

[quinsforever]

silly comment from Hansen. England have all the motivation they need being 5:1 against at the bookies.

if they think they have better than a 1 in 6 chance of winning then they are going to feel like an underrated underdog with nothing to lose. great mindset to be in for me.

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