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Wales recent record and what it says

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Post by wrfc1980 Mon 11 Nov 2013, 5:18 pm

First topic message reminder :

Some may be surprised to hear that Wales have won just 5 of their last 16 games. What has caused this slump or is this the true level of this welsh team. I must admit that I get surprised at some of the praise banded about when the actual results don't back this up. If England had won just 5 of 16 games with one of those wins against a third tier team in Japan I'm sure there would be uproar. So do people agree with my view that Wales are overrated? If not how would you argue against the stat of played 16 won 5?

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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 10:38 am

Scrumpy wrote:As a Brit I wanted to see Wales beat SA (believe me I'm no fan of SA rugby), but they failed again so don't turn on fans who point that out and say Wales simply aren't good enough against SH opposition when the facts are there to back that up.

IMO Gatland and his team has taken Wales as far as they can.
I'm one who says Wales weren't good enough though!

I am merely pointing out that SH teams get 3 months together before touring, whereas the NH teams don't see each other for 3 months before touring.

Does nobody else think this is some sort of factor, where such tight margins win or lose games at the top level, preperation has to be part of it. There are other reasons of course, I'm not saying there aren't, but the fact that Fa has kinda proved my point when thinking NH teams are together before travelling and he doesn't count the Scottish win means maybe he has something to think about?

I never once said Wales were the better team or deserved anything but a loss, it was one hell of a battle up front though, massive hits from both sides, and if i'm being really honest I was kind of impressed with the welsh pack, the backline was laughable but the pack did very well, that is the most physical contest of the season for me up front.

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Post by GunsGerms Tue 12 Nov 2013, 10:39 am

fa0019 wrote:They are the European champions. The best side in Europe. Its been proven over the last 2 years with back to back wins.
There is a difference between championship performance and non-championship performance.

But

all the title means is that they are the best in Europe, no more. As we've seen, when it comes to the world they have a lot of work to do.
Winning the 6 nations two years in a row is a massive achievement though. I would take Wales' win ration anyday for that honour.

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Post by Scrumpy Tue 12 Nov 2013, 10:41 am

Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 10:51 am

Scrumpy wrote:Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
Thats the point scrumpy, Aus as bad as they are gave us a game last week because we werew so rusty, and with that under their belt have thrashed Italy who played their first game against them, we are clearly the better team than Aus at ther minute but it was hard work, similarly Aus were the better team than Scotland 2012 but were rusty first up and got beat.

Japan are improved, but are they improved enough to near outplay Scotland for 20 minutes? Or were Sctoland off the pace until the second half?

I've just gone over world cup results between the 6N teams and the best 6 SH teams (SANZAR + Arg Tonga Samoa) and in the last 3 world cups the head to heads have finished 18 wins a peice, the freindly ratio is massively in favour of the SH teams though. Again does this not go someway to explain the poor 6N teams performances in round 1 of the AI's? If we have a global season we all compete on an even footing.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:03 am

butterfingers wrote:
fa0019 wrote:In 2012 Wales, Ireland and England played a 3 test series each vs. AUS, NZ & SA respectively and all sent full squads.

The results were 12 games, 11 losses, 0 wins and 1 draw.

And that was when they were together and drilled and their opponents had no time together.
Was it really? Go and recheck the time that had lapsed between last 6N game, and first tour game.

Near 3 months passed before the 6N teams played their first games, they hadn't seen each other for 3 months. How exactly does that make them drilled?

2012 was one of the first times I recall NH teams sending solid teams south, Wales might have won 2 of their games had it not been for last minute tries, Ireland nearly won one and England struggled.

Also didn't Scotland beat Aus first up? MEaning Aus were beaten through rusty first up performance by one of the weakest NH teams?


Lets not deal with what MIGHT have happened and focus on what did happen ? The Aussies didnt lose to Scotland because they were rusty. They lost because they played in torrential rainfall and the Scots adapted quicker than their opposition and changed their gameplan accordingly. So it still remains 11 games to the SH 1 to the NH in the June tours

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Post by SecretFly Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:04 am

Not all 6N teams perform badly in round 1 of the AIs.

And if 'not all' applies to the issue at hand (SH sides being together longer come the AIs) then the issue isn't an issue.

There is also the issue of presumed diminishing returns from being together for such a long period, playing high intensity International rugby for that period and then shipping yourself off to Europe to do another stint of it.
You can always argue that SHers should be tiring - physically and mentally - come the AIs and that European sides should be fresher and ready for the heat of International battle....on home soil.

Sometimes - on any give day - you just have to hold your hand up and say the winning side were better.  There is always minute extenuating circumstances applying to all games happening in a real world - there are always times when a player is playing through a niggling injury, when a player couldn't get to sleep the night before, when two players from the one team collide and have to be replaced etc, etc.

There is always reasons why you might not have lost but there are also times when the opposing team is simply better.


Last edited by SecretFly on Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:49 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by The Bachelor Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:06 am

I think 9/10 is the issue at the moment; I'm surprised Gatland went back to the Phillips/Priestland axis given how much better the Lions looked in the final game when Murray came in.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:07 am

SecretFly wrote:Not all 6N teams perform badly in round 1 of the AIs.

And if 'not all' applies to the issue at hand (SH sides being together longer come the AIs) then the issue isn't an issue.

There is also the issue of presumed dimishing returns from being together for such a long period, playing high intensity International rugby for that period and then shipping yourself off to Europe to do another stint of it.
You can always argue that SHers should be tiring - physically and mentally - come the AIs and that European sides should be fresher and ready for the heat of International battle....on home soil.

Sometimes - on any give day - you just have to hold your hand up and say the winning side were better.  There is always minute extenuating circumstances applying to all games happening in a real world - there are always times when a player is playing through a niggling injury, when a player couldn't get to sleep the night before, when two players from the one team collide and have to be replaced etc, etc.

There is always reasons why you might not have lost but there are also times when the opposing team is simply better.
Couldnt agree more . Cant comment on other teams but for my own team i'd have to say the loss at Ellis Park is a perfect example of the opposing team just being better than us .
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:14 am

Ah see I never thought about teams tiring in the last few games, that certainly wouldn't apply to NZ last year would it?!

Name me a NH side that didn't throw a number of floor passes in the first half hour, gimme a NH lineout that functioned particularly well in the first half, gimme a NH team that in general performaed well in their opener?

RWC games are far closer and realistic of teams abilities, why is that? Argentina used to struggle massively but could turn up and perform come world cup time, was it not because they were given an even footing to compete?

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

There are numerous issues with NH rugby, this is just 1 of them, it's not the SH teams problem, but it is a NH issue that must be addressed if any of us want to be a contender long term.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:19 am

butterfingers wrote:Ah see I never thought about teams tiring in the last few games, that certainly wouldn't apply to NZ last year would it?!

Name me a NH side that didn't throw a number of floor passes in the first half hour, gimme a NH lineout that functioned particularly well in the first half, gimme a NH team that in general performaed well in their opener?

RWC games are far closer and realistic of teams abilities, why is that? Argentina used to struggle massively but could turn up and perform come world cup time, was it not because they were given an even footing to compete?

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

There are numerous issues with NH rugby, this is just 1 of them, it's not the SH teams problem, but it is a NH issue that must be addressed if any of us want to be a contender long term.
But then again as Fa mentioned , how do the NH teams still come down south in the Summer and perform even worse ? And please dont use the second string excuse . The SH teams are currently touring without at least 4 injured guaranteed starters in their team.
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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:27 am

Bullsbok who are the 4 injured guaranteed starters missing from the SH sides?

Specifically talking about South Africa it doesn't look like you were missing many players at all if any.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:32 am

beshocked wrote:Bullsbok who are the 4 injured guaranteed starters missing from the SH sides?

Specifically talking about South Africa it doesn't look like you were missing many players at all if any.
Francois Steyn , Schalk Burger , Jannie Du Plessis , Francois Hougaard


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Post by Biltong Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:36 am

butterfingers wrote:
Scrumpy wrote:Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
Thats the point scrumpy, Aus as bad as they are gave us a game last week because we werew so rusty, and with that under their belt have thrashed Italy who played their first game against them, we are clearly the better team than Aus at ther minute but it was hard work, similarly Aus were the better team than Scotland 2012 but were rusty first up and got beat.

Japan are improved, but are they improved enough to near outplay Scotland for 20 minutes? Or were Sctoland off the pace until the second half?

I've just gone over world cup results between the 6N teams and the best 6 SH teams (SANZAR + Arg Tonga Samoa) and in the last 3 world cups the head to heads have finished 18 wins a peice, the freindly ratio is massively in favour of the SH teams though. Again does this not go someway to explain the poor 6N teams performances in round 1 of the AI's? If we have a global season we all compete on an even footing.
you need to compare apples with apples though.

Tonga?

Traditionally the top six nation teams have had problems beating the top teams from the Tri Nations.

comparing tonga, Argentina etc. is not like for like.

What are these stats when it comes to SA, NZ and OZ, because that is where the problem is.
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Post by GunsGerms Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:39 am

Bullsbok wrote:
butterfingers wrote:Ah see I never thought about teams tiring in the last few games, that certainly wouldn't apply to NZ last year would it?!

Name me a NH side that didn't throw a number of floor passes in the first half hour, gimme a NH lineout that functioned particularly well in the first half, gimme a NH team that in general performaed well in their opener?

RWC games are far closer and realistic of teams abilities, why is that? Argentina used to struggle massively but could turn up and perform come world cup time, was it not because they were given an even footing to compete?

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

There are numerous issues with NH rugby, this is just 1 of them, it's not the SH teams problem, but it is a NH issue that must be addressed if any of us want to be a contender long term.
But then again as Fa mentioned , how do the NH teams still come down south in the Summer and perform even worse ? And please dont use the second string excuse . The SH teams are currently touring without at least 4 injured guaranteed starters in their team.
Ireland historically perform better v NZ in NZ than in the November internationals. The third test aside (60-0) the other two tests and others in recent years Ireland have put in their best performances v NZ.

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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:39 am

Bullsbok wrote:
butterfingers wrote:Ah see I never thought about teams tiring in the last few games, that certainly wouldn't apply to NZ last year would it?!

Name me a NH side that didn't throw a number of floor passes in the first half hour, gimme a NH lineout that functioned particularly well in the first half, gimme a NH team that in general performaed well in their opener?

RWC games are far closer and realistic of teams abilities, why is that? Argentina used to struggle massively but could turn up and perform come world cup time, was it not because they were given an even footing to compete?

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

There are numerous issues with NH rugby, this is just 1 of them, it's not the SH teams problem, but it is a NH issue that must be addressed if any of us want to be a contender long term.
But then again as Fa mentioned , how do the NH teams still come down south in the Summer and perform even worse ? And please dont use the second string excuse . The SH teams are currently touring without at least 4 injured guaranteed starters in their team.
Bulls, the summer is irrelevent because the NH teams aren't together before they tour, they spend 3 months with their clubs before preping to leave.

SH teams train and play together in the RC, get a week or 2 recovery before playing another game or 2 before hitting the first game of the AI's, this is ideal prep in my view.

NH teams play 6N, then return to their clubs for months before returning to train and play SH teams first up, so the NH teams are as rusty as the SH teams.

I'm not saying this is the difference between the teams, but when games are won or lost by the odd point, which preperation would you prefer your team had before the match?

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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:40 am

Are you telling me that Du Preez is not your first choice scrum half?

You said guaranteed starters.

Is Francois Steyn necessarily guaranteed to start?

I am sorry I don't look at the South African team and feel sorry for how depleted it is because it's really not.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:42 am

butterfingers wrote:
Bullsbok wrote:
butterfingers wrote:Ah see I never thought about teams tiring in the last few games, that certainly wouldn't apply to NZ last year would it?!

Name me a NH side that didn't throw a number of floor passes in the first half hour, gimme a NH lineout that functioned particularly well in the first half, gimme a NH team that in general performaed well in their opener?

RWC games are far closer and realistic of teams abilities, why is that? Argentina used to struggle massively but could turn up and perform come world cup time, was it not because they were given an even footing to compete?

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

There are numerous issues with NH rugby, this is just 1 of them, it's not the SH teams problem, but it is a NH issue that must be addressed if any of us want to be a contender long term.
But then again as Fa mentioned , how do the NH teams still come down south in the Summer and perform even worse ? And please dont use the second string excuse . The SH teams are currently touring without at least 4 injured guaranteed starters in their team.
Bulls, the summer is irrelevent because the NH teams aren't together before they tour, they spend 3 months with their clubs before preping to leave.

SH teams train and play together in the RC, get a week or 2 recovery before playing another game or 2 before hitting the first game of the AI's, this is ideal prep in my view.

NH teams play 6N, then return to their clubs for months before returning to train and play SH teams first up, so the NH teams are as rusty as the SH teams.

I'm not saying this is the difference between the teams, but when games are won or lost by the odd point, which preperation would you prefer your team had before the match?
Boks spent a month away before the first match vs Wales:whistle:  .
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:43 am

Biltong wrote:
butterfingers wrote:
Scrumpy wrote:Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
Thats the point scrumpy, Aus as bad as they are gave us a game last week because we werew so rusty, and with that under their belt have thrashed Italy who played their first game against them, we are clearly the better team than Aus at ther minute but it was hard work, similarly Aus were the better team than Scotland 2012 but were rusty first up and got beat.

Japan are improved, but are they improved enough to near outplay Scotland for 20 minutes? Or were Sctoland off the pace until the second half?

I've just gone over world cup results between the 6N teams and the best 6 SH teams (SANZAR + Arg Tonga Samoa) and in the last 3 world cups the head to heads have finished 18 wins a peice, the freindly ratio is massively in favour of the SH teams though. Again does this not go someway to explain the poor 6N teams performances in round 1 of the AI's? If we have a global season we all compete on an even footing.
you need to compare apples with apples though.

Tonga?

Traditionally the top six nation teams have had problems beating the top teams from the Tri Nations.

comparing tonga, Argentina etc. is not like for like.

What are these stats when it comes to SA, NZ and OZ, because that is where the problem is.
So you think using stats of the top 3 teams, in comparison to 4th to 9th is comparing apples with apples? If stats are used for our worst and 6th team then the SH have to find theyre 6th best team, that is apples with apples surely.

Your logic would be similar to me saying use England, Ireland and France against Sanzar AND 3 more teams, those stats would be skewed in NH favour too!

If you compare 6 teams to 3 stats mean nothing.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:45 am

beshocked wrote:Are you telling me that Du Preez is not your first choice scrum half?

You said guaranteed starters.

Is Francois Steyn necessarily guaranteed to start?

I am sorry I don't look at the South African team and feel sorry for how depleted it is because it's really not.
If his heir apparent Francois Hougaard was fit then yes Du Preez would not be starting. Unless i'm very wrong that's the reason he refused to play in 2012 because he wanted to give the youngsters a chance . And once again Steyn was guaranteed a start most likely at fullback. If anything he came back two games too late in the currie Cup otherwise he'd have gone on tour .
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:46 am

Please (I can't beleive I have to keep repeating this) I a not saying Wales England or anyone else is better than NZ or SA, they are clearly 1 and 2.

But if we use the only competition where everyone gets an even footing (unless your tier 2 then you don't get rest days) it is no surprise that Argentina play very well, Tonga keep taking scalps, and the big 3 get beaten more than they think they should, it has to be partly down to everyone getting the same prep time, even if only a tiny bit.

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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:48 am

Very true butterfingers.

There's a big difference between England and Italy for example. Italy have not beaten England yet in 19 attempts.

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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:49 am

Bullsbok wrote:
beshocked wrote:Are you telling me that Du Preez is not your first choice scrum half?

You said guaranteed starters.

Is Francois Steyn necessarily guaranteed to start?

I am sorry I don't look at the South African team and feel sorry for how depleted it is because it's really not.
If his heir apparent Francois Hougaard was fit then yes Du Preez would not be starting. Unless i'm very wrong that's the reason he refused to play in 2012 because he wanted to give the youngsters a chance . And once again Steyn was guaranteed a start most likely at fullback. If anything he came back two games too late in the currie Cup otherwise he'd have gone on tour .
I'd agree with Steyn, disagree with Du Preez, he is top class and has been since his return!

I still can't beleive Leroux didn't start, he's been magic all season too!

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:52 am

And he was class when he came on, too.

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Post by GunsGerms Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:52 am

beshocked wrote:Very true butterfingers.

There's a big difference between England and Italy for example. Italy have not beaten England yet in 19 attempts.
They are the only team that Italy have failed to beat in the 6N having last year triumphed against Ireland for the first time in the 6N.

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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:53 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:And he was class when he came on, too.
Wasn't he, he is the form player in that bok backline and deserves gametime.

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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 11:55 am

Bullsbok wrote:
beshocked wrote:Are you telling me that Du Preez is not your first choice scrum half?

You said guaranteed starters.

Is Francois Steyn necessarily guaranteed to start?

I am sorry I don't look at the South African team and feel sorry for how depleted it is because it's really not.
If his heir apparent Francois Hougaard was fit then yes Du Preez would not be starting. Unless i'm very wrong that's the reason he refused to play in 2012 because he wanted to give the youngsters a chance . And once again Steyn was guaranteed a start most likely at fullback. If anything he came back two games too late in the currie Cup otherwise he'd have gone on tour .
Heir apparent perhaps doesn't mean he is going to take the crown off Du Preez just yet.

Perhaps wiki isn't the best source but it says that Du Preez used most of 2012 to fully recover from an injured shoulder.


Perhaps Steyn would start but is he really that significant an absence? You talk about guaranteed starter - he might not be guaranteed to start every game.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:01 pm

beshocked wrote:
Bullsbok wrote:
beshocked wrote:Are you telling me that Du Preez is not your first choice scrum half?

You said guaranteed starters.

Is Francois Steyn necessarily guaranteed to start?

I am sorry I don't look at the South African team and feel sorry for how depleted it is because it's really not.
If his heir apparent Francois Hougaard was fit then yes Du Preez would not be starting. Unless i'm very wrong that's the reason he refused to play in 2012 because he wanted to give the youngsters a chance . And once again Steyn was guaranteed a start most likely at fullback. If anything he came back two games too late in the currie Cup otherwise he'd have gone on tour .
Heir apparent perhaps doesn't mean he is going to take the crown off Du Preez just yet.

Perhaps wiki isn't the best source but it says that Du Preez used most of 2012 to fully recover from an injured shoulder.


Perhaps Steyn would start but is he really that significant an absence? You talk about guaranteed starter - he might not be guaranteed to start every game.
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-05-08-pick-hougaard-du-preez-tells-bok-coach , Hougaard starts the 2012 Season then gets himself injured this year leading to Du Preez's callup because theres only one other test scrumhalf (Ruan Pienaar) As for Frans Steyn , him and JDV are the only springbok backline players to be awarded Springbok contracts today. I dont think they're handing those out to players that arent vital to the cause.
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Post by SecretFly Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:03 pm

butterfingers wrote:

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

I did read where you stand...meaning I never did accuse you of saying Wales deserved to win.  

I did say I don't agree with the idea that the end of 3 months of globe-hopping high intensity International rugby (at the highest skill levels! - this ain't the 6N we're talking about) is in anyway an advantage over players that have worked themselves up to speed in club competition and are now primed and ready to hit International levels of performance.
You think that's the edge, or a big edge anyway, that the SH sides have.  I disagree and say it's a excuse.  I say the sides are simply and clincally usually better than their NH colleagues.  'Better' has to exist or else let's quit the idea of sport altogether.  'Better' exists - and for the time being, SH sides still are.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:06 pm

The Boks weren't at their best on Saturday, but they didn't need to be. They had an extra gear and it was clear to see when they opted to use it: they did everything at a greater pace. Wales, even when the game was loose and they played a bit of rugby towards the end of the first half, never had that extra speed of thought and deed.

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Post by Biltong Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:07 pm

butterfingers wrote:
Biltong wrote:
butterfingers wrote:
Scrumpy wrote:Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
Thats the point scrumpy, Aus as bad as they are gave us a game last week because we werew so rusty, and with that under their belt have thrashed Italy who played their first game against them, we are clearly the better team than Aus at ther minute but it was hard work, similarly Aus were the better team than Scotland 2012 but were rusty first up and got beat.

Japan are improved, but are they improved enough to near outplay Scotland for 20 minutes? Or were Sctoland off the pace until the second half?

I've just gone over world cup results between the 6N teams and the best 6 SH teams (SANZAR + Arg Tonga Samoa) and in the last 3 world cups the head to heads have finished 18 wins a peice, the freindly ratio is massively in favour of the SH teams though. Again does this not go someway to explain the poor 6N teams performances in round 1 of the AI's? If we have a global season we all compete on an even footing.
you need to compare apples with apples though.

Tonga?

Traditionally the top six nation teams have had problems beating the top teams from the Tri Nations.

comparing tonga, Argentina etc. is not like for like.

What are these stats when it comes to SA, NZ and OZ, because that is where the problem is.
So you think using stats of the top 3 teams, in comparison to 4th to 9th is comparing apples with apples? If stats are used for our worst and 6th team then the SH have to find theyre 6th best team, that is apples with apples surely.

Your logic would be similar to me saying use England, Ireland and France against Sanzar AND 3 more teams, those stats would be skewed in NH favour too!

If you compare 6 teams to 3 stats mean nothing.
Mate, be realistic.


there are but three nations in the SH that has a professional setup. SA, Aus and NZ.

If you go to tonga, who is what 15th on the rankings you are fooling yourself with stats.

The question is what is your aim with your reasoning?

It is to establish where your performances lie against the teams you must beat, you should not have problems beating tonga, Fiji, etc.

Take the countries with a professional club setup and compare your performances to them, as these are the countries that can sustain a record, not those who barely have their players available during tests.
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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:08 pm

Bullsbok you talk about guaranteed starters. I don't think Hougaard would supplant Du Preez at the moment.

My point is I don't look at the Springbok side that beat Wales and believe it was depleted much at all. Every side has injuries, even Wales had injuries!

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:13 pm

beshocked wrote:Bullsbok you talk about guaranteed starters. I don't think Hougaard would supplant Du Preez at the moment.

My point is I don't look at the Springbok side that beat Wales and believe it was depleted much at all. Every side has injuries, even Wales had injuries!
If he was fit Du Preez would'nt have had to come is my point here not that Hougaard could relegate him to the bench now. Besides I said do not use the second string side excuse to justify poor perfomance in the June tours to Butterfingers . That was the point
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Post by Biltong Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:14 pm

Hougaard is not a scrum half in the mould of what Meyer wants, his kicking is poor and he has no tactical brain.

He is a wing
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:14 pm

SecretFly wrote:
butterfingers wrote:

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

I did read where you stand...meaning I never did accuse you of saying Wales deserved to win.  

I did say I don't agree with the idea that the end of 3 months of globe-hopping high intensity International rugby (at the highest skill levels! - this ain't the 6N we're talking about) is in anyway an advantage over players that have worked themselves up to speed in club competition and are now primed and ready to hit International levels of performance.
You think that's the edge, or a big edge anyway, that the SH sides have.  I disagree and say it's a excuse.  I say the sides are simply and clincally usually better than their NH colleagues.  'Better' has to exist or else let's quit the idea of sport altogether.  'Better' exists - and for the time being, SH sides still are.
See now you claim to have read but clearly you havn't, I havn't said the prep time IS the edge as you claim above, I didn't claim SA weren't better on the day, and I have never claimed the SH 3 aren't generally better than the NH teams, why do you keep insisting I am?!

'Sometimes - on any give day - you just have to hold your hand up and say the winning side were better.' - Clearly I did plenty of times did I not?

'There is always reasons why you might not have lost but there are also times when the opposing team is simply better.' - Again why are you stating something I have already said, over and over?

Even directly above...

'You think that's the edge, or a big edge anyway, that the SH sides have.' - That is clearly not what I am saying.

Fly

Your Irish aren't you?

Lets say Ireland play England, one team gets to play a 6N tournament, followed by a week or 2 off then reunite for a few weeks before playing a freindly, the other team meets up 6 days before kick off. Which prep would you prefer Ireland to have?

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:18 pm

Biltong wrote:Hougaard is not a scrum half in the mould of what Meyer wants, his kicking is poor and he has no tactical brain.

He is a wing
Seeing as Mr Meyer has played Hougaard at 9 not 11 i'll be going with that data .
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Post by butterfingers Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:19 pm

Biltong wrote:
butterfingers wrote:
Biltong wrote:
butterfingers wrote:
Scrumpy wrote:Maybe Wales need to play the likes of Tonga/ARG first, SA first up was a little optimistic.
Thats the point scrumpy, Aus as bad as they are gave us a game last week because we werew so rusty, and with that under their belt have thrashed Italy who played their first game against them, we are clearly the better team than Aus at ther minute but it was hard work, similarly Aus were the better team than Scotland 2012 but were rusty first up and got beat.

Japan are improved, but are they improved enough to near outplay Scotland for 20 minutes? Or were Sctoland off the pace until the second half?

I've just gone over world cup results between the 6N teams and the best 6 SH teams (SANZAR + Arg Tonga Samoa) and in the last 3 world cups the head to heads have finished 18 wins a peice, the freindly ratio is massively in favour of the SH teams though. Again does this not go someway to explain the poor 6N teams performances in round 1 of the AI's? If we have a global season we all compete on an even footing.
you need to compare apples with apples though.

Tonga?

Traditionally the top six nation teams have had problems beating the top teams from the Tri Nations.

comparing tonga, Argentina etc. is not like for like.

What are these stats when it comes to SA, NZ and OZ, because that is where the problem is.
So you think using stats of the top 3 teams, in comparison to 4th to 9th is comparing apples with apples? If stats are used for our worst and 6th team then the SH have to find theyre 6th best team, that is apples with apples surely.

Your logic would be similar to me saying use England, Ireland and France against Sanzar AND 3 more teams, those stats would be skewed in NH favour too!

If you compare 6 teams to 3 stats mean nothing.
Mate, be realistic.


there are but three nations in the SH that has a professional setup. SA, Aus and NZ.

If you go to tonga, who is what 15th on the rankings you are fooling yourself with stats.

The question is what is your aim with your reasoning?

It is to establish where your performances lie against the teams you must beat, you should not have problems beating tonga, Fiji, etc.

Take the countries with a professional club setup and compare your performances to them, as these are the countries that can sustain a record, not those who barely have their players available during tests.
But who of the small celts or Italians have their own professional set up? Do they then not be considered to compete with England, France and SANZAR nations because of this?

The PI teams record over 6N teams is probably better than the 6N teams records over the SANZAR nations.

Where is your reasoning that the PI teams are not to be included, I have only counted RWC's so they all have players available, they all get the same prep time, and they are all at their strongest.

Would you not say they are so weak because of the SANZAR nations as opposed to being weak solely on their own? I mean they earn pretty well from AI trips up north, what do they get from SANZAR nations annually?

My point is Italy have been up and running in part for just a few years, to compare their record to the big 3 is ridiculous, and their record v PI teams is pretty ominous!

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Post by Biltong Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:22 pm

That is why I said use the top teams in the Six Nations.

Let me put it this way.

Who are the contenders for RWC?

Who do you believe can win the RWC, or who do you believe can make the final at least?

Compare those teams.
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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:24 pm

Du Preez kept Pienaar warming the bench. You think Hougaard would just waltz past both of them into the starting line up?

Not sure why you think Du Preez wouldn't be picked. He's 31 - hardly ancient just yet.

Surely you pick your best players.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:25 pm

Biltong wrote:That is why I said use the top teams in the Six Nations.

Let me put it this way.

Who are the contenders for RWC?

Who do you believe can win the RWC, or who do you believe can make the final at least?

Compare those teams.
Lets make it easy

NZ , SA , ENG,AUS , FRANCE , IRELAND , WALES , SCOTLAND , ARG , these all have the potential to make it to the final . Not so confident on Scotland and ARG tho but seeing as the Pumas generally pick themselves up for the RWC i wont discount them
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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:27 pm

beshocked wrote:Du Preez kept Pienaar warming the bench. You think Hougaard would just waltz past both of them into the starting line up?

Not sure why you think Du Preez wouldn't be picked. He's 31 - hardly ancient just yet.

Surely you pick your best players.
Pienaar is widely disliked by a big chunk of Bok fans for his slow play. Matter of fact he's not as highly rated by Springbok fans as he seems to be by Irish fans and the NH in general
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Post by beshocked Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:33 pm

Bullsbok I actually agree with you about Pienaar. He's a bit overrated.

Only 5 of those sides have reached a final.

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Post by Mr Bounce Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:48 pm

I like watching Wales (I'm English) and generally support them unless they're playing England. The trouble Gatland has is that he bases his coaching ideals around and relies far too specifically on a few brilliant players and there isn't the strength in depth to replace them. Take out Adam Jones, Toby Faletau, Jamie Roberts, JD2 & Leigh Halfpenny and regardless of who's on the bench the game plan generally falls apart. Not because "Wales are no good" but because these players are SO influential.

Adam Jones is an absolute cornerstone of Welsh rugby. Look how the Lions scrum struggled without him. Roberts & Davies are a dream centre partnership, something England are crying out for. However, England have "coped" without Barritt & Tuilagi (although not brilliantly) simply because of their strength in depth. It is a luxury Wales do not have. Roberts is injury-prone. Adam Jones is pushing on a bit now and can't recover as quickly as he used to.

Wales tend to do well but lose marginally against the SH teams, usually when most if not all their players are fully functioning. They don't lose by much against most teams without key players. But, unfortunately, they do lose.

Without key players I worry for Wales at the next RWC.

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Post by Bullsbok Tue 12 Nov 2013, 12:55 pm

Mr Bounce wrote:I like watching Wales (I'm English) and generally support them unless they're playing England. The trouble Gatland has is that he bases his coaching ideals around and relies far too specifically on a few brilliant players and there isn't the strength in depth to replace them. Take out Adam Jones, Toby Faletau, Jamie Roberts, JD2 & Leigh Halfpenny and regardless of who's on the bench the game plan generally falls apart. Not because "Wales are no good" but because these players are SO influential.

Adam Jones is an absolute cornerstone of Welsh rugby. Look how the Lions scrum struggled without him. Roberts & Davies are a dream centre partnership, something England are crying out for. However, England have "coped" without Barritt & Tuilagi (although not brilliantly) simply because of their strength in depth. It is a luxury Wales do not have. Roberts is injury-prone. Adam Jones is pushing on a bit now and can't recover as quickly as he used to.

Wales tend to do well but lose marginally against the SH teams, usually when most if not all their players are fully functioning. They don't lose by much against most teams without key players. But, unfortunately, they do lose.

Without key players I worry for Wales at the next RWC.
I think its a good thing for Welsh rugby if their key players get injured during crunch games. It forces them to develop new players so they are less reliant on those specialist players. Case in point , Lee Bryne 2009 was widely regarded as the best fullback , or second best if you think Kearny was better. He gets injured and up pops Leigh Halfpenny into the fold . What Gatland should have done is keep both of them in the squad not leave Byrne in the wilderness . It would have made such a difference last saturday for example when Halfpenny shifted to wing , Byrne a class 15 would have filled the void and Wales would have been better off for it with an attacking fullback
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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Tue 12 Nov 2013, 1:02 pm

I think Wales are like Australia. The reasons: they have a small domestic set up and a few high profile players overseas. Both have very capable first teams (albeit with inverse skill sets) but struggle with depth.

They play among bigger company with impressive records and yet find a way to compete and accumulate trophies of which other nations would be or are envious.

Who gets competition not only in tests between SA and NZ but also provincial competition? I don't buy this mental fragility thing. I looked at that spanking in the first half by Ireland and how many accumulated defeats from the previous autumn and then saw incredible resolve to pick themselves up and play themselves back into confidence culminating in that incredible performance against England.

Their lack of success is not down to mental fragility. It is down to tactics. If Wales were to swap territories with Australia, I'd be confident that they could reverse their fortunes against one another. Argentina are struggling because they don't have access to Super rugby. If Wales had that and the RC I think their tactics would change on how they attack and score points and that principally is their biggest stumbling block against the 3N teams. England are 2 out of 3 against 3N teams but go a year back and the result is the opposite. England are in a good moment but they too have struggled against SH opposition. Hence my theory.

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Post by Scrumpy Tue 12 Nov 2013, 1:15 pm

What is Gatlands policy of selecting overseas based players?
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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Tue 12 Nov 2013, 1:18 pm

They must show written or documented proof of having a Welsh grandmother. A photo of a Christmas family lunch is no longer acceptable. Whistle 

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Post by SecretFly Tue 12 Nov 2013, 1:39 pm

butterfingers wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
butterfingers wrote:

If your going to commit to the conversation please read where I stand, I have never once said Wales deserved to win, I said in this day and age where such small issues win or lose games 3 months together beats 6 days together hands down does it not?

I did read where you stand...meaning I never did accuse you of saying Wales deserved to win.  

I did say I don't agree with the idea that the end of 3 months of globe-hopping high intensity International rugby (at the highest skill levels! - this ain't the 6N we're talking about) is in anyway an advantage over players that have worked themselves up to speed in club competition and are now primed and ready to hit International levels of performance.
You think that's the edge, or a big edge anyway, that the SH sides have.  I disagree and say it's a excuse.  I say the sides are simply and clincally usually better than their NH colleagues.  'Better' has to exist or else let's quit the idea of sport altogether.  'Better' exists - and for the time being, SH sides still are.
See now you claim to have read but clearly you havn't, I havn't said the prep time IS the edge as you claim above, I didn't claim SA weren't better on the day, and I have never claimed the SH 3 aren't generally better than the NH teams, why do you keep insisting I am?!

'Sometimes - on any give day - you just have to hold your hand up and say the winning side were better.' - Clearly I did plenty of times did I not?

'There is always reasons why you might not have lost but there are also times when the opposing team is simply better.' - Again why are you stating something I have already said, over and over?

Even directly above...

'You think that's the edge, or a big edge anyway, that the SH sides have.' - That is clearly not what I am saying.

Fly

Your Irish aren't you?

Lets say Ireland play England, one team gets to play a 6N tournament, followed by a week or 2 off then reunite for a few weeks before playing a freindly, the other team meets up 6 days before kick off. Which prep would you prefer Ireland to have?
First up - I have to make a statement for all here - or to all.  Because it is getting very frustrating talking here and having people think you are making raw and accusatory remarks directed at them personally.

This is not just for you butterfingers - but for all those ready to feel slighted as they read posts that mean nothing of the sort.  I don't know what age you are, or whether it's the age of electronic media and facebook, twitter etc.  But few people now seem to be able to distinguish the rhetorical "you" from the very personal "you".  It would be wise to renew our acquaintance with the subtlety of language - many of you - if 606 wants to continue to be a debating chamber rather than a fight-club Wink

Now, I was addressing the issue you raised, not you or your personal opinions, butterfingers.  When I address an issue I use the word 'you' liberally in its rhetorical sense - as in you/us/universal 'we' etc.  I shouldn't have to point that out but to people so ready to take personal offence, it seems it a new and very necessary addition to all discussions "I don't mean you" - "I'm not getting at you personally"

Anyway on to an example: 'Sometimes - on any give day - you just have to hold your hand up and say the winning side were better.'  Explanation of statement:  Addressing the topic rather than the poster.  'You' and 'your' infers All of us - infer 'we'.  It was not a pointed slur at any particular team, nation or race of people......or you in the particular

You mentioned another comment of mine.  Same rules apply.  In order to formulate a principle you (as in all of us Wink) must use rhetorical speech from time to time.  And in order to clarify the point I'm making, it's also necessary to outline it by making the points I made, even though you say it's an 'over and over' comment directed primarily at you.

Most people seem to understand that my points were ones of principle - general ones that apply to all sides in the NH/SH debate - not points designed to personally attack you, your opinions or your team.

Now, afterall that, I hold to my opinion - no game anywhere in world at any time could be said to be perfectly fair - it can't happen.  Therefore, we keep to the human world of sport and I do not agree with the idea that SH have an advantage in coming to the NH at the time they come to it.  The advantage I do think they have is that on average - in general - the top three of them are generally better than most of the NH sides are at present and in the past.

I don't say that should be a white flag shown by any NH side.  I do believe they are beatable.  But I disagree with your contention, that's all.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Tue 12 Nov 2013, 1:46 pm

I don't get what you are saying...

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Post by SecretFly Tue 12 Nov 2013, 2:18 pm

I knew you'd be there at the tailend of that one kia...and that means I undertand you perfectly Wink

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Post by BlueNote Tue 12 Nov 2013, 2:20 pm

"A photo of a Christmas family lunch is no longer acceptable."

That was Graham Henry, not Gatland!

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