Luck in rugby.

What is the nature of luck in the game of rugby? In particular what is the boundary between bad luck and poor technique? If a kick at goal hits the post, this might be described as bad luck, but is it really bad luck or is it really just that although the kick was decent, it wasn't good enough?

Perhaps the only true luck in the game comes down to the bounce of the ball. Short of access to a super-computer when a rugby ball hits the ground, no one can predict where it will go: it can quite literally bounce in any direction. This bounce can be the difference between a try scoring opportunity or a turn-over, or in the most extreme case victory or defeat.

So the question has to be where do you draw the line between luck and skill, or lack of? If the ball ends up bouncing straight at a player and they only have a spilt second to react, is it bad luck if they don't catch it or simply a lack of skill. Conversely, if they do catch is that testament to their ability, or simply good luck that the ball stuck in their hands.

Perhaps "luck" is occasionally a misnomer: a label attached when it would be unreasonable to expect human reactions to be able to do anything more than try something in the hope that it works, because players just aren't accurate or fast enough to guarantee success at the task. In other words, when all you can do is make an attempt, then it is luck whether you succeed or not. In contrast that kick that hit the post could have gone over if the player had managed to aim at the centre of the goal so that such fine margins don't come into it.

Whatever the truth, we can only hope that luck does really even itself out in the end. It doesn't make it any less frustrating when it goes against you, but maybe we should be more grateful when it goes our way.

Great article, Schrodinger (gonna have to think of a shortened nickname!).

Its funny, most of the time its always reported as the aggrieved team having bad luck and never the other way around.

The times I can actually remember bad luck as opposed to bad technique was during the 6N match between Wales and France where Wales kicked and hit the flying camera twice during the game!

That's right Hobo. If you can remember your good luck, it's probably only because the other side remind you of it as their bad luck!

I remember that. You couldn't do that if you wanted to.

As for abbreviations, I have been variously called Cat, Schro and SC. I don't mind as long as I know you are referring to me. If you want to be slightly clever about it, you could use Erwin, i.e. Schrodinger's first name.

I think you are right. Luck is the bounce of the ball. Luck could also be the wind picking up or easing off. Could be rain or not. Referee decisions are human decisions, perhaps human error, but not luck.

Good point doctor_grey. Weather and particularly sudden changes in weather are down to luck. On the other hand it shouldn't affect one team significantly more than the other unless you get a gust of wind which blows a kick off course, or something like that.

An obvious source of luck, good or ill, that I didn't include in the original post is injury. Whether you regard it as good luck if you don't ever get a bad injury or bad luck that you do get injured, it certainly is an unfortunate part of the game.

Perfect example of this one was the lions tour in S Africa with O Driscoll.

Badly hurt the team, losing him so early.

Absolutely. It can also be luck that you only get injuries in areas that have good cover, or bad luck that you get injuries to players that are far better than any possible replacement.

Injuries are definitely bad luck (having just come off crutches), but I think it all comes down to technique at the end of the day. It is whether you are good enough or not, not any other overiding factor. Having said that it is always bad luck when someone slots a drop goal in the last minute of the game (in the daily mail sixth round).

Not necessarily. If someone falls on you and breaks your leg, there really isn't much you can do (assuming you didn't cause them to fall).

For everything that is, by mutual agreement, not understood within a system, you can ascribe 'luck'. Give it many, many years and the bounce of a ball could be second-nature. The roof of the Millennium Stadium already removes weather patterns that remain difficult to predict, eliminating another variable. 'Luck' will cover the left-over unknowables.

"You harder you practice, the luckier you get" - Gary Player

A modern aphorism, and as far as I am concerned, with tongue firmly rooted in cheek regarding 'luck'. If one endeavours to work, one will reap their rewards.*


*Subject, unfortunately, to messrs 'time' and 'mortality'.

Hydroxymoron wrote:For everything that is, by mutual agreement, not understood within a system, you can ascribe 'luck'. Give it many, many years and the bounce of a ball could be second-nature. The roof of the Millennium Stadium already removes weather patterns that remain difficult to predict, eliminating another variable. 'Luck' will cover the left-over unknowables.

However, there is no way that on the pitch anybody is going to be able to predict the bounce of a dropped ball. As a result, once the mistake of dropping the ball is made the direction and size of the bounce can only be assigned to luck.

Schrodinger's Cat wrote:However, there is no way that on the pitch anybody is going to be able to predict the bounce of a dropped ball. As a result, once the mistake of dropping the ball is made the direction and size of the bounce can only be assigned to luck.

Complete knowledge will be very difficult, but I would be of the opinion that enough time and study and practice and...breeding (procreation & recreation) could instill some relevant intuition so as to smartly predict 'the bounce of the ball'. Sure, basic applied mathematics may even given the attentive eye a cute advantage. Repeat the experiment enough and the 'luckier' player becomes a league's most highly regarded...winger, I'll say.

I don't like the notion of 'luck'. I can't say a professional sports-person would either, who may train 'til they're suckin' diesel. On the other hand, sport is loved in large part for its unpredictability, entwined with the mysteries that still remain about human nature. Within lies 'luck'.

Would you regard winning in roulette as luck? The reason I ask is that, in theory if I know the mass and size of the ball, the initial velocity, the angular velocity of the wheel, and the various coefficients of friction I can calculate where the ball will land.

Similarly, if I played blackjack and counted the cards, I might know that only one ace has come out so far, so I have a higher probability of one being drawn than if three were gone, but it's still luck whether I get one or not.

A look at the OED is informative:

Luck n. success or failure apparently brought by chance.

The key word here is "apparently". In other words, if a system is too complicated to accurately predict an outcome, especially in real time with no access to a computer, it is down to luck what outcome is achieved. Of course it is possible to improve the chances of doing well by experience of the bouncing ball, as it is by counting cards in blackjack, but as you can never be certain, there is, by definition, an element of luck. Of course, no matter how much experience you have, you can never rule out uneven ground and a strange bounce.

Phew! I need a drink after that!

Luck can be many things,local knowledge will aid a home goalkicker.If you have a roof closed or open.Weather conditions in an open stadium,the bounce of the ball.injuries during a match.A referees,decision though Human error,if it gives you the win is good luck,the loss bad.

emack2 wrote:Luck can be many things,local knowledge will aid a home goalkicker.If you have a roof closed or open.Weather conditions in an open stadium,the bounce of the ball.injuries during a match.A referees,decision though Human error,if it gives you the win is good luck,the loss bad.

I don't think that things like local knowledge can be ascribed to luck (see the OED definition above) because it is part of the skill and knowledge of the goal kicker. Similarly referees' decisions aren't really down to luck, unless you are suggesting that they just guess and randomly give penalties. Yes, they can make mistakes, but as that can be ascribed to human error, it is not really luck. The only element of luck you could assign to that would be in terms of timing of the bad decisions and whether it affects you more than the other side, but even at that, it could be down to the referee having made up his mind that one team is playing negatively, etc.

You make your own luck, except for when the tournament organisers pull the numbers out of the bag and you get New Zealand, South Africa and Australia in your World Cup group .... now that IS bad luck!

Schrodinger's Cat wrote:Phew! I need a drink after that!

It's yours!

I'm something of a nihilist so I'd never appear to find luck.

Alright, I do enjoy drinking!

Schrodinger's Cat wrote:Not necessarily. If someone falls on you and breaks your leg, there really isn't much you can do (assuming you didn't cause them to fall).

Got up from a ruck and taken out causing me to have a mild tear in my ACL ligament (if your interested),


But it was just unfortunate at the time, I didnt see him coming and just got hit. But when your watching your team play without you, you do start to think someone was trying to do that.

MR. scotland27 wrote:Got up from a ruck and taken out causing me to have a mild tear in my ACL ligament (if your interested),

That's definitely unfortunate. Even if you were taken out intentionally the injury is still bad luck. It doesn't make being side-lined any easier though.