Read vs Halfpenny for World Player Of The Year

by disneychilly Mon 18 Nov 2013, 8:19 pm

First topic message reminder :

Stuck on this one eh. Both have been in mesmeric form and have played huge hands in memorable wins for their teams. Happy with either.

Have read that Read benefits from the team around him this year which I don't believe. He's one of the standouts who would be missed more than the usual 7 and 10. Such a vital cog.

Halfpenny has been so assured all season and on form has probably been the best goalkicker in the game this year. Set up the try which broke the 3rd Lions test open.

No matter who wins, kudos to both for a brilliant year. (Half) Penny for your thoughts? See what I did there?

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 6:56 pm

oh dear. and how many tries have NZ scored that Carter has simply converted?

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:01 pm

having a superlative kicker that wins you matches ends up being a weakness, as the team ends up relying on it. And if you dont create advantage and cause infringements in the forwards, then its game over. look at england with johnny wilkinson post 2003 but where their most dominant forwards retired. dan carter has probably never "won" a match with his kicking, but is obviously going to get lots of point converting the AB tries. Interesting statistic would be what % of DC's and 1/2P's points are from conversions vs penalties?

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:03 pm

Dunno, why don't you run along and look it up

Carter 12.95 points per test from the boot

Half 6.93 points per test from the boot

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:04 pm

took me 2 secs to check. 1/2P c20% are conversions. DC 50% are conversions.

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:06 pm

1/2P 44 tests 18 conversions. = 0.4 converted trys/game
DC 100 tests 254 conversions. =2.5 converted trys/game

so its clear NZ's try scoring wins their matches not DC's boot compared to 1/2P.

by Bullsbok Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:12 pm

Scratch wrote:Dunno, why don't you run along and look it up

Carter 12.95 points per test from the boot

Half 6.93 points per test from the boot

yes DC has 1440 points , but i can assure you after watching DC play his whole career , the All blacks have never solely relied on his kicking to win games considering they score at the very least 2 tries every single game .

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:13 pm

quoins, that doesn't tell you the result of the game, unless you know what each opponent scored then to make that assertion is baseless.

You can say NZ scored more tries but you can't claim that won the games!

Point is, even in games carter Played he contributed approx 13 points per game whereas Half contributed, well, half of that in each game he played.

by Bullsbok Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:20 pm

Scratch wrote:quoins, that doesn't tell you the result of the game, unless you know what each opponent scored then to make that assertion is baseless.

You can say NZ scored more tries but you can't claim that won the games!

Point is, even in games carter Played he contributed approx 13 points per game whereas Half contributed, well, half of that in each game he played.

thats because Carter has twice as many caps , he's obviously going to have more points and a higher average. Add this to the fact that 1/2p only really became the primary kicker in 2010 or something . Seeing as he wasnt first choice when Stephen Jones , Hook , Biggar and PRiestland where kicking .

by disneychilly Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:27 pm

It's coming down to a Lions Series and 6N title vs a possible perfect season...

I reckon we have to take the teams out of it. Both players are principal reasons why their teams are good. Halfpenny is far more than a kicker and Read is now the most important All Black-superceding the big two.

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:36 pm

er hello, why would more caps increase his average score off the boot, his total but not his average.

Of course that average may increase with tries scored but that does not indicate how the team relied on the boot to win

The point is Bull that Carter has scored 255 pens and 257 cons in all tests (100)

That is 765 penalty points or 7.65 per test and 514 cons or 5.14 per test whereas Half has scored 27 cons or 1.10 per test and 88 pens 0r 5.39 per test in all tests (49)

Just taking penalties alone Carter has contributed more points per game from the boot!

You would need to further adjust it for tests played, winning margins and numerous other variables to get a significant stat but as a guide, NZ rely on Carter's boot

(And S Donald's)

by Bullsbok Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:43 pm

Scratch wrote:er hello, why would more caps increase his average score off the boot, his total but not his average.

Of course that average may increase with tries scored but that does not indicate how the team relied on the boot to win

The point is Bull that Carter has scored 255 pens and 257 cons in all tests (100)

That is 765 penalty points or 7.65 per test and 514 cons or 5.14 per test whereas Half has scored 27 cons or 1.10 per test and 88 pens 0r 5.39 per test in all tests (49)

Just taking penalties alone Carter has contributed more points per game from the boot!

You would need to further adjust it for tests played, winning margins and numerous other variables to get a significant stat but as a guide, NZ rely on Carter's boot

(And S Donald's)

Not even going to bother anymore , yes 1/2p should win the POTY because he kicked the lions and wales to victory happy ?

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:44 pm

i agree. the panel would have to be anti-welsh not to see it that way Run

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:47 pm

Bullsbok wrote:
Scratch wrote:er hello, why would more caps increase his average score off the boot, his total but not his average.

Of course that average may increase with tries scored but that does not indicate how the team relied on the boot to win

The point is Bull that Carter has scored 255 pens and 257 cons in all tests (100)

That is 765 penalty points or 7.65 per test and 514 cons or 5.14 per test whereas Half has scored 27 cons or 1.10 per test and 88 pens 0r 5.39 per test in all tests (49)

Just taking penalties alone Carter has contributed more points per game from the boot!

You would need to further adjust it for tests played, winning margins and numerous other variables to get a significant stat but as a guide, NZ rely on Carter's boot

(And S Donald's)
Not even going to bother anymore , yes 1/2p should win the POTY because he kicked the lions and wales to victory happy ?

Sounds fair enough to me, but i will be happy if either player wins. thumbsup

by **Biltong** Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:48 pm

Not sure why you guys worry about this so much, I'll take a test win over a subjectively voted award any day.

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:50 pm

quinsforever wrote:i agree. the panel would have to be anti-welsh not to see it that way

quins, do you not have anything more to offer than pithy little run away comments the like o which you expect to find in the playground

seriously, you present a statistical analysis that is nonsensical and then you try and go for the cheap WUM with some anti welsh dross, your obsession with intruding this 'i must be anti welsh' into every debate seem motivated by hate or insecurity, i can't be sure which yet

keep it up, it sees all you are good for on here

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:50 pm

Biltong wrote:Not sure why you guys worry about this so much, I'll take a test win over a subjectively voted award any day.

not worried but yes, completely agree Biltong

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 7:57 pm

quinsforever wrote:having a superlative kicker that wins you matches ends up being a weakness, as the team ends up relying on it. And if you dont create advantage and cause infringements in the forwards, then its game over. look at england with johnny wilkinson post 2003 but where their most dominant forwards retired. dan carter has probably never "won" a match with his kicking, but is obviously going to get lots of point converting the AB tries. Interesting statistic would be what % of DC's and 1/2P's points are from conversions vs penalties?

the same can be said - is being said - about england's pack right now

Unless the backs start to offer something the need to rely even more on the pack will continue.

NZ showed that even this can be negated by keeping players out of the contact area and blitzing on the fringes of the ruck

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:04 pm

ok lets try this then scratch as you dont seem to be able to understand the data given you so far

1/2P has scored
less points than DC
less points per game than DC
a lower % accuracy than Morne Steyn
was not even first choice kicker until 2010 or 2011
has scored fewer tries than Read in 2013 even though NZ played against far higher ranked opposition on average during 2013
NH rugby has been pretty rank during 2013 as a whole compared to NZ and SA

that's all. you're welcome.

by Guest Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:07 pm

I can't believe you boneheads are still arguing over something like this. Oddballs.

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:10 pm

Scratch wrote:
quinsforever wrote:having a superlative kicker that wins you matches ends up being a weakness, as the team ends up relying on it. And if you dont create advantage and cause infringements in the forwards, then its game over. look at england with johnny wilkinson post 2003 but where their most dominant forwards retired. dan carter has probably never "won" a match with his kicking, but is obviously going to get lots of point converting the AB tries. Interesting statistic would be what % of DC's and 1/2P's points are from conversions vs penalties?
the same can be said - is being said - about england's pack right now

Unless the backs start to offer something the need to rely even more on the pack will continue.

NZ showed that even this can be negated by keeping players out of the contact area and blitzing on the fringes of the ruck

for a completely different reason. 2003 side focused on forward pressure in order to keep the scoreboard ticking over (via wilko kicking), but they also had decent attacking threats outside (cohen, lewsey, robinson etc).

saturday's eng team kept the ball in the forwards (a young forward pack that are in no way as dominant as 2003) and down the middle because that is a pretty good tactic against NZ who dont commit too many men to the breakdown and spread their defense wide. we are also less of an attacking threat in the backs at the mo for various reasons.

not the same at all. and not the same, if you are going to point fingers, as wales's lack of ideas and over-reliance on 1/2P's boot from the 1/2way line against SA. i am going to be charitable and put that down to gatland's inflexible tactics rather than player limitations.

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:12 pm

quinsforever wrote:ok lets try this then scratch as you dont seem to be able to understand the data given you so far

1/2P has scored
less points than DC
less points per game than DC
a lower % accuracy than Morne Steyn
was not even first choice kicker until 2010 or 2011
has scored fewer tries than Read in 2013 even though NZ played against far higher ranked opposition on average during 2013
NH rugby has been pretty rank during 2013 as a whole compared to NZ and SA

that's all. you're welcome.

quins, you bore me in a way i didn't think it was possible to get bored

you actually think that how many conversions were scored by a kicker in a game is a reliable indicator of whether that game was won or not without knowing what the opposition scored or whether indeed the game was won at all

it is impossible to debate with someone who doesn't grasp that simple concept when they post it

go and haunt someone else, or just yourself, i don't really mind

we're done here

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:17 pm

quinsforever wrote:
Scratch wrote:
quinsforever wrote:having a superlative kicker that wins you matches ends up being a weakness, as the team ends up relying on it. And if you dont create advantage and cause infringements in the forwards, then its game over. look at england with johnny wilkinson post 2003 but where their most dominant forwards retired. dan carter has probably never "won" a match with his kicking, but is obviously going to get lots of point converting the AB tries. Interesting statistic would be what % of DC's and 1/2P's points are from conversions vs penalties?
the same can be said - is being said - about england's pack right now

Unless the backs start to offer something the need to rely even more on the pack will continue.

NZ showed that even this can be negated by keeping players out of the contact area and blitzing on the fringes of the ruck

for a completely different reason. 2003 side focused on forward pressure in order to keep the scoreboard ticking over (via wilko kicking), but they also had decent attacking threats outside (cohen, lewsey, robinson etc).

saturday's eng team kept the ball in the forwards (a young forward pack that are in no way as dominant as 2003) and down the middle because that is a pretty good tactic against NZ who dont commit too many men to the breakdown and spread their defense wide. we are also less of an attacking threat in the backs at the mo for various reasons.

not the same at all. and not the same, if you are going to point fingers, as wales's lack of ideas and over-reliance on 1/2P's boot from the 1/2way line against SA. i am going to be charitable and put that down to gatland's inflexible tactics rather than player limitations.

and the relevance of this is……..definitely insecurity not hate

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:20 pm

Scratch wrote:
quinsforever wrote:ok lets try this then scratch as you dont seem to be able to understand the data given you so far

1/2P has scored
less points than DC
less points per game than DC
a lower % accuracy than Morne Steyn
was not even first choice kicker until 2010 or 2011
has scored fewer tries than Read in 2013 even though NZ played against far higher ranked opposition on average during 2013
NH rugby has been pretty rank during 2013 as a whole compared to NZ and SA

that's all. you're welcome.

quins, you bore me in a way i didn't think it was possible to get bored

you actually think that how many conversions were scored by a kicker in a game is a reliable indicator of whether that game was won or not without knowing what the opposition scored or whether indeed the game was won at all

it is impossible to debate with someone who doesn't grasp that simple concept when they post it

go and haunt someone else, or just yourself, i don't really mind

we're done here

no, its a reliable indicator of how many successful tries he converted. and therefore a good indicator that at least 2.5 tries per game (assuming he is 100% accurate, anything less would imply more tries per game) shows that NZ, against far better average quality of opposition, do not RELY on the boot of anyone. that would be anaethema to all kiwis. further, to see NZ's record during DC's matches i need only glance at the same page to know that is W88, D1, L11.

wales's somewhat less compelling.

if you still think NZ "rely" on DC's boot, after the data you have been provided with, why not just ask a kiwi, any kiwi.

and please stop projecting your own lack of grasp onto me. it's undignified.

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:31 pm

Scratch wrote:
quinsforever wrote:
Scratch wrote:
quinsforever wrote:having a superlative kicker that wins you matches ends up being a weakness, as the team ends up relying on it. And if you dont create advantage and cause infringements in the forwards, then its game over. look at england with johnny wilkinson post 2003 but where their most dominant forwards retired. dan carter has probably never "won" a match with his kicking, but is obviously going to get lots of point converting the AB tries. Interesting statistic would be what % of DC's and 1/2P's points are from conversions vs penalties?
the same can be said - is being said - about england's pack right now

Unless the backs start to offer something the need to rely even more on the pack will continue.

NZ showed that even this can be negated by keeping players out of the contact area and blitzing on the fringes of the ruck

for a completely different reason. 2003 side focused on forward pressure in order to keep the scoreboard ticking over (via wilko kicking), but they also had decent attacking threats outside (cohen, lewsey, robinson etc).

saturday's eng team kept the ball in the forwards (a young forward pack that are in no way as dominant as 2003) and down the middle because that is a pretty good tactic against NZ who dont commit too many men to the breakdown and spread their defense wide. we are also less of an attacking threat in the backs at the mo for various reasons.

not the same at all. and not the same, if you are going to point fingers, as wales's lack of ideas and over-reliance on 1/2P's boot from the 1/2way line against SA. i am going to be charitable and put that down to gatland's inflexible tactics rather than player limitations.
and the relevance of this is……..definitely insecurity not hate

funny how you can dish it out but can't accept any criticism of the welsh team or coach. what - it's fine for you to comment on everyone else's teams but not for anyone else to comment in anything less than glowing terms about the welsh team? picard

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:33 pm

that's topped it, you are now actually managing to argue with yourself!!

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:38 pm

only way to get sensible debate when you're around drumroll

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 8:44 pm

you don't debate quoins,

fact is you revert to some sort of pithy comment about wales given half a chance as you did this morning about toeing anti welsh

i have never slated england on here, given that i am to all intents and purposes an englishman. My post about england relying on their pack was to demonstrate that of cours e steam relies on it's strength. It would be obtuse no to see that.

your posts are invariably very predictable, often inaccurate and usually barbed and as i say, also often supremely boring as they are based around the idea that if you are a welsh fan you must be ABE etc etc

if you don't mind i will leave you to your dog with a bone solo argument and move on, there's a good chap

thumbsup

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:09 pm

quinsforever wrote:only way to get sensible debate when you're around

Out of interest as at 5th June 2013 (not sure what it is now but I am sure Halfpenny has only missed one since then), this is the test career accuracy table

94% Leigh Halfpenny
90% Morne Steyn
83% Dan Carter

by Taylorman Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:19 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
quinsforever wrote:only way to get sensible debate when you're around
Out of interest as at 5th June 2013 (not sure what it is now but I am sure Halfpenny has only missed one since then), this is the test career accuracy table

94% Leigh Halfpenny
90% Morne Steyn
83% Dan Carter

goodness...luckily of the 3 DC can do other things then...

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:27 pm

Taylorman wrote:
flyhalffactory wrote:
quinsforever wrote:only way to get sensible debate when you're around
Out of interest as at 5th June 2013 (not sure what it is now but I am sure Halfpenny has only missed one since then), this is the test career accuracy table

94% Leigh Halfpenny
90% Morne Steyn
83% Dan Carter
goodness...luckily of the 3 DC can do other things then...

This is even more revealing
Rating Rugby Union Kickers By Kick Difficulty
Player. Attempts. Expected Successes. Actual Successes. % above Expected.
Leigh Halfpenny. 107 71 88 24
Charlie Hodgson. 205 147 167 14
Tom Homer. 208 142 161 14
Daniel Carter. 137 100 112 12
Dan Biggar. 94 65 73 12
Greig Laidlaw. 89 64 71 11
Ian Humphreys. 113 78 86 10
Dimitri Yachvili. 124 88 96 9
Ronan O'Gara. 153 117 126 8
Jonny Wilkinson. 146 97 105 8
Jonathan Sexton. 234 170 183 8
Andy Goode. 157 111 118 6
Stephen Jones. 148 112 118 6
Jimmy Gopperth. 252 183 193 6

That's expected success placed on the following

OptaPro wrote:OptaPro have kindly supplied kicking data from a wide range of rugby competitions from 2010 through to 2012, including English domestic league matches, European and domestic cup games, Internationals and Six Nations matches as well as domestic and Tri Nations Southern Hemisphere contests. Some of the data also included age restricted matches from the under 20’s Six Nations and the IRB under 20’s World Championship.

A model for the expected success rate for kicks at goal can be constructed using knowledge of the position, distance and angle from where the attempt was taken, combined with the actual outcome. We can then use this scoring expectation to not only rate the records of individual kickers more accurately by accounting for the relative difficulty of the kicks they attempted, but also chart the career development of young players. We can also begin to investigate the drop off in kicking effectiveness, both generally and individually with increasing distance and this opens up the development of in game strategies which may decide whether a side decides to kick for goal or kicks for the corner.

by aucklandlaurie Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:29 pm

I can that see if Kieren Read has any aspirations of being the World player of the year, hes going to have to seriously work on his goal kicking.

by Scratch Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:35 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote: I can that see if Kieren Read has any aspirations of being the World player of the year, hes going to have to seriously work on his goal kicking.

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:36 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote: I can that see if Kieren Read has any aspirations of being the World player of the year, hes going to have to seriously work on his goal kicking.

Shall we compare Read v Halfpenny for tackles missed then?

Then its really going to get interesting

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:40 pm

How about tackles made instead?

by aucklandlaurie Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:40 pm

Id prefer something like won lineouts, turnovers at the breakdown etc.

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:45 pm

quinsforever wrote:How about tackles made instead?

Beggars belief that statement!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Silly Billy......... obviously because an eight is going to make more tackles due to his position on the pitch.
But more important is what %age of missed tackles has a player.

by Guest Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:45 pm

Lineouts lost: Halfpenny 0; Scrums lost against the head: Halfpenny 0

Run

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:46 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote: Id prefer something like won lineouts, turnovers at the breakdown etc.

Well we cannae compare a 15 to an 8

I prefer something you can actually compare

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:48 pm

Tries scored

by quinsforever Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:48 pm

Height

by Guest Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:49 pm

Body fat percentage. That'll do it.

by Bullsbok Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:50 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
quinsforever wrote:only way to get sensible debate when you're around
Out of interest as at 5th June 2013 (not sure what it is now but I am sure Halfpenny has only missed one since then), this is the test career accuracy table

94% Leigh Halfpenny
90% Morne Steyn
83% Dan Carter

If you;re going to bring Morne Steyn into the equation be very careful as the stats will nullify your point .

Leigh Halfpenny has 94% accuracy rating as of 5 June you say . I'll assume as of today is in the high 90s . He also has 49 Caps and 318 kicking points

Morne Steyn has less than 90 as of today , probably somewhere around 80-85 with 53 caps . What he does have however is 585 kicking points . So let us not compare these two kickers with almost the same number of caps because it just wont end well .

by blackcanelion Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:51 pm

The lesson is if you're Welsh you believe it's self evident it's Halfpenny, if you're Kiwi Read, anywhere else you're probably sitting back eating popcorn and watching.

by aucklandlaurie Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:51 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote: Id prefer something like won lineouts, turnovers at the breakdown etc.
Well we cannae compare a 15 to an 8
I prefer something you can actually compare

Yes we can, Ive just seen three pages of thread to prove it.

by Bullsbok Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:51 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote: Id prefer something like won lineouts, turnovers at the breakdown etc.
Well we cannae compare a 15 to an 8

I prefer something you can actually compare

I agree with Quin , tries scored .

by Guest Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:52 pm

blackcanelion wrote:The lesson is if you're Welsh you believe it's self evident it's Halfpenny, if you're Kiwi Read, anywhere else you're probably sitting back eating popcorn and watching.

Quite wrong actually. A number of Welsh posters on here, including myself, have said they vote for Read.

by blackcanelion Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:56 pm

My apologies Griff. You are far more open minded than myself.

by flyhalffactory Tue 19 Nov 2013, 9:57 pm

Bullsbok wrote:
flyhalffactory wrote:
quinsforever wrote:only way to get sensible debate when you're around
Out of interest as at 5th June 2013 (not sure what it is now but I am sure Halfpenny has only missed one since then), this is the test career accuracy table

94% Leigh Halfpenny
90% Morne Steyn
83% Dan Carter
If you;re going to bring Morne Steyn into the equation be very careful as the stats will nullify your point .

Leigh Halfpenny has 94% accuracy rating as of 5 June you say . I'll assume as of today is in the high 90s . He also has 49 Caps and 318 kicking points

Morne Steyn has less than 90 as of today , probably somewhere around 80-85 with 53 caps . What he does have however is 585 kicking points . So let us not compare these two kickers with almost the same number of caps because it just wont end well .

I just don't understand what you are harping about, the reason he has more is SA are the number two side in the world and score more tries and create more penalties for Steyn to kick!!!' its all about how accurate he is everytime he runs up to kick between the posts

He is a less accurate kicker than Halfpenny and when you compare the range or difficulty of kicks he is nowhere close to Halfpenny. FULL STOP

by Guest Tue 19 Nov 2013, 10:02 pm

blackcanelion wrote:My apologies Griff. You are far more open minded than myself.

Open your mind. Don't be a sheep.

by blackcanelion Tue 19 Nov 2013, 10:04 pm

Here's a question:

If you could pick any no8 in the world at moment who would you pick?

I'm guessing most pundits would pick Read.

If you could pick any fullback in the world at the moment who would you pick?

I'm guessing many pundits would pick Halfpenny. But I also think many people would opt for Dagg, Brown, DeVilliers or Folau.

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