Read vs Halfpenny for World Player Of The Year

First topic message reminder :

Stuck on this one eh. Both have been in mesmeric form and have played huge hands in memorable wins for their teams. Happy with either.

Have read that Read benefits from the team around him this year which I don't believe. He's one of the standouts who would be missed more than the usual 7 and 10. Such a vital cog.

Halfpenny has been so assured all season and on form has probably been the best goalkicker in the game this year. Set up the try which broke the 3rd Lions test open.

No matter who wins, kudos to both for a brilliant year. (Half) Penny for your thoughts? See what I did there?

flyhalffactory wrote:

Bullsbok wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

nganboy wrote:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:If Halfpenny played for the ABs he wouldn't be under team orders to kick everything back and we'd see more of the HP in the 3rd Lions test and less of the excellent defensive fullback we get with Wales fly half. It's like having a trophy wife and not having your way with her. You just have her on display without getting to see what she's really made of. A luxury car that you use only for commuting instead of racing it with 14 other luxury cars on a track. It may not stand out as much but at least you're getting your money's worth.

If Halfpenny were a kiwi though he might not have kicking duties (he hasn't always been first choice kicker for Wales I understand) so he would then have to be better than Jane, Smith, Dagg at the other full back duties.

Course if you are not having your way with your trophy wife then someone else is.

If Halfpenny didn't get a look in for NZ then he might play for Wales due to his Welsh granny and then become the best full back in the world like Shane Howarth did.

I think any coach in the world when comparing what close to 97% accuracy (Halfpenny) in his career to 83% accuracy (Carter) is going to make one choice. So I think you can safely say that Halfpenny would be the kicker if in an All Black jersey.

Plus the little fact of missing one test tackle in 24 months puts him in a different universe to most FBs, not sure of the missed tackles with Dagg, Jane (I believe Smith has similar stats to 1/2p).

How do i put this , if 1/2p had 1440 points to his name his accuracy would not be 97% . The more kicks you attempt the more you're likely to miss . Carter has attempted substantially more than Halfpenny hence his accuracy is lower . Besides if you were a coach and were told to pick a kicker with 315 points and 97% accuracy or one with 1200 points and 83% accuracy i know which one i'd pick.

What a ridiculous statement to make it actually beggars belief!!, so you are saying the more experienced 1/2p gets, the more he kicks the less accurate he will become...... funny that then because he is now in his high 90s where he started much less.

I would also say the kicks for 1/2p are much more important for Wales hence he is under more pressure (than DC or MS) because of Wales overall quality and ability to score points otherwise (much less than the ABs or SA I mean).

So you are saying that at this very point in time you would pick a kicker with 83% chance of success than someone with 97% chance..... can you imagine the ABs forwards reactions to that "we are going to work our b0ll0cks off to gain the pens, and coach you select a kicker who is going to waste 14% more than that other guy...... come on mun coach!"

Its amazing how you'll ignore a point right in front of you . i said the MORE ATTEMPTS he makes the more he's likely to miss !!! At what point did i say anything about experience . The fact that you ignored my entire point and came up with your own to counter my post is mindboggling

Bullsbok wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

Bullsbok wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

nganboy wrote:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:If Halfpenny played for the ABs he wouldn't be under team orders to kick everything back and we'd see more of the HP in the 3rd Lions test and less of the excellent defensive fullback we get with Wales fly half. It's like having a trophy wife and not having your way with her. You just have her on display without getting to see what she's really made of. A luxury car that you use only for commuting instead of racing it with 14 other luxury cars on a track. It may not stand out as much but at least you're getting your money's worth.

If Halfpenny were a kiwi though he might not have kicking duties (he hasn't always been first choice kicker for Wales I understand) so he would then have to be better than Jane, Smith, Dagg at the other full back duties.

Course if you are not having your way with your trophy wife then someone else is.

If Halfpenny didn't get a look in for NZ then he might play for Wales due to his Welsh granny and then become the best full back in the world like Shane Howarth did.

I think any coach in the world when comparing what close to 97% accuracy (Halfpenny) in his career to 83% accuracy (Carter) is going to make one choice. So I think you can safely say that Halfpenny would be the kicker if in an All Black jersey.

Plus the little fact of missing one test tackle in 24 months puts him in a different universe to most FBs, not sure of the missed tackles with Dagg, Jane (I believe Smith has similar stats to 1/2p).

How do i put this , if 1/2p had 1440 points to his name his accuracy would not be 97% . The more kicks you attempt the more you're likely to miss . Carter has attempted substantially more than Halfpenny hence his accuracy is lower . Besides if you were a coach and were told to pick a kicker with 315 points and 97% accuracy or one with 1200 points and 83% accuracy i know which one i'd pick.

What a ridiculous statement to make it actually beggars belief!!, so you are saying the more experienced 1/2p gets, the more he kicks the less accurate he will become...... funny that then because he is now in his high 90s where he started much less.

I would also say the kicks for 1/2p are much more important for Wales hence he is under more pressure (than DC or MS) because of Wales overall quality and ability to score points otherwise (much less than the ABs or SA I mean).

So you are saying that at this very point in time you would pick a kicker with 83% chance of success than someone with 97% chance..... can you imagine the ABs forwards reactions to that "we are going to work our b0ll0cks off to gain the pens, and coach you select a kicker who is going to waste 14% more than that other guy...... come on mun coach!"

Its amazing how you'll ignore a point right in front of you . i said the MORE ATTEMPTS he makes the more he's likely to miss !!! At what point did i say anything about experience . The fact that you ignored my entire point and came up with your own to counter my post  is mindboggling

I understand you point exactly, and I find it hard to believe that the MORE ATTEMPTS = MORE EXPERIENCE will make a player less accurate!.
I would say the more you practice the more you get better, that is why the Ronaldos, the Beckhams, the Steyns, the Carters, the Wilkinsons, the Halfpennys of sport seem to continue practicing their skills long after everyone else has gone home. The more kicks you attempt in a game the better the chance of you getting them over.

During Carters test career the ABs have probably scored more tries and gained more penalties than any other test side, so you expect Carter to have the test record, but the fact is he is less accurate a kicker than 1/2p.

Part of halfpennys success rate will be because hes not had to focus on other areas of his game- such as attack. And his rate will reduce because he is currently on a purple patch. As he gets older, as he has to kick in different parts of the world, grounds, weather etc his rate will drop below 90%. All kickers do.

Carter has the responsibility of running the backline, calling the moves, attacking himself- kicking goals is only a small % of his entire repetroire. Its the fact that he can do it all at very high levels that makes him the best 10.

of course DC is less accurate. his kicking is not what won him 2 POTYs and its not what wins NZ matches.

If Halfpenny has a success rate of 83% in 7 years as the primary goalkicker I'd be astounded.

flyhalffactory wrote:

Bullsbok wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

Bullsbok wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

nganboy wrote:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:If Halfpenny played for the ABs he wouldn't be under team orders to kick everything back and we'd see more of the HP in the 3rd Lions test and less of the excellent defensive fullback we get with Wales fly half. It's like having a trophy wife and not having your way with her. You just have her on display without getting to see what she's really made of. A luxury car that you use only for commuting instead of racing it with 14 other luxury cars on a track. It may not stand out as much but at least you're getting your money's worth.

If Halfpenny were a kiwi though he might not have kicking duties (he hasn't always been first choice kicker for Wales I understand) so he would then have to be better than Jane, Smith, Dagg at the other full back duties.

Course if you are not having your way with your trophy wife then someone else is.

If Halfpenny didn't get a look in for NZ then he might play for Wales due to his Welsh granny and then become the best full back in the world like Shane Howarth did.

I think any coach in the world when comparing what close to 97% accuracy (Halfpenny) in his career to 83% accuracy (Carter) is going to make one choice. So I think you can safely say that Halfpenny would be the kicker if in an All Black jersey.

Plus the little fact of missing one test tackle in 24 months puts him in a different universe to most FBs, not sure of the missed tackles with Dagg, Jane (I believe Smith has similar stats to 1/2p).

How do i put this , if 1/2p had 1440 points to his name his accuracy would not be 97% . The more kicks you attempt the more you're likely to miss . Carter has attempted substantially more than Halfpenny hence his accuracy is lower . Besides if you were a coach and were told to pick a kicker with 315 points and 97% accuracy or one with 1200 points and 83% accuracy i know which one i'd pick.

What a ridiculous statement to make it actually beggars belief!!, so you are saying the more experienced 1/2p gets, the more he kicks the less accurate he will become...... funny that then because he is now in his high 90s where he started much less.

I would also say the kicks for 1/2p are much more important for Wales hence he is under more pressure (than DC or MS) because of Wales overall quality and ability to score points otherwise (much less than the ABs or SA I mean).

So you are saying that at this very point in time you would pick a kicker with 83% chance of success than someone with 97% chance..... can you imagine the ABs forwards reactions to that "we are going to work our b0ll0cks off to gain the pens, and coach you select a kicker who is going to waste 14% more than that other guy...... come on mun coach!"

Its amazing how you'll ignore a point right in front of you . i said the MORE ATTEMPTS he makes the more he's likely to miss !!! At what point did i say anything about experience . The fact that you ignored my entire point and came up with your own to counter my post  is mindboggling

I understand you point exactly, and I find it hard to believe that the MORE ATTEMPTS = MORE EXPERIENCE will make a player less accurate!.
I would say the more you practice the more you get better, that is why the Ronaldos, the Beckhams, the Steyns, the Carters, the Wilkinsons, the Halfpennys of sport seem to continue practicing their skills long after everyone else has gone home. The more kicks you attempt in a game the better the chance of you getting them over.

During Carters test career the ABs have probably scored more tries and gained more penalties than any other test side, so you expect Carter to have the test record, but the fact is he is less accurate a kicker than 1/2p.

Whats hard to believe here ? its the same with try scorers really. Julian Savea has got close to 100% strike rate at the moment , something like 19 tries in 20 tests or something . Do you think its going to stay the same when he hits 50 60 tests? no . His strike rate will inevitably drop. Just because you've got more experience doesnt mean your strike rates will improve , in fact its the opposite. Higher chances of having a bad day at the office the more games you play. Habana had the same when he was younger now he's got 90 odd tests and 53 tries as compared to 15 tests and 15 tries .


And to give you a better example , Morne Steyn missed a grand total of 2 kicks from his debut in 09 to November 2010 , giving him his record of 42 consecutive kicks . His strike rate then was impecable now its settled down to a more realistic 80 something percent .

Taylorman wrote:Part of halfpennys success rate will be because hes not had to focus on other areas of his game- such as attack. And his rate will reduce because he is currently on a purple patch. As he gets older, as he has to kick in different parts of the world, grounds, weather etc his rate will drop below 90%. All kickers do.

Carter has the responsibility of running the backline, calling the moves, attacking himself- kicking goals is only a small % of his entire repetroire. Its the fact that he can do it all at very high levels that makes him the best 10.

So basically what you are saying that 1/2p only is accurate on his home soil (utter utter tosh)
So you are saying if Wales, Barbarians, Lions moved 1/2p to 10 his dead ball accuracy would diminish (lordy lordy)
So basically what you are saying that players like Steyn or Neil Jenkins who had test accuracy in the 90s and 94% (in Jenkins case and he was world points record holder until DC took over from him) shouldn't be that accurate because they have been 10s (I just don't know what to say I really dont)

So that we fully acknowledge 1/2ps contribution so quickly with so little experience, he had severe injuries in 2010 and 2011, and he hasn't moved to FB for that long........ otherwise I believe he would be a quantum leap above the 2013 model.

Do you know what DCs accuracy or contribution was when he had his holiday in France?

We haven't a crystal ball so we cant see what 1/2p accuracy or contribution will be at the end of his career, but I will stick my neck out that barring injuries he is going to be right up there among the best.

I think people are being harsh on Halfpenny's finishing and attacking skills here. He doesn't always get to show them off for Wales but he did start his international career as a winger and he has shown at FB that he is adept at joining the line and creating opportunities and finishing them and he is very quick, easily Int winger pace. He is also an excellent tackler and positional defender/kick receiver, good in the air despite his size and makes very few mistakes. When he wasn't the main kicker for Wales, he was a worse kicker technically but most importantly he mostly took on very long kicks and his range is still a major strength. If he and Carter were both in the same 15 I have not an iota of doubt that pence would be kicking, however whether that would be enough to start him over Dagg or Savea or Pitau or Jane or Smith when you know Carter could take the kicks in his absence is a genuine question. I would, I understand why others wouldn't

I think given the way we play, we'd be more likely to opt for someone like Folau or Brown before Halfpenny. That's not to denigrate him, he's a great player. It's more a reflection on how we use the fullback. That's not to say he wouldn't be a useful addition. I think they'd look at him as an option on the wing (we essentially play a second fullback anyway).

flyhalffactory wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Part of halfpennys success rate will be because hes not had to focus on other areas of his game- such as attack. And his rate will reduce because he is currently on a purple patch. As he gets older, as he has to kick in different parts of the world, grounds, weather etc his rate will drop below 90%. All kickers do.

Carter has the responsibility of running the backline, calling the moves, attacking himself- kicking goals is only a small % of his entire repetroire. Its the fact that he can do it all at very high levels that makes him the best 10.

So basically what you are saying that 1/2p only is accurate on his home soil (utter utter tosh)
So you are saying if Wales, Barbarians, Lions moved 1/2p to 10 his dead ball accuracy would diminish (lordy lordy)
So basically what you are saying that players like Steyn or Neil Jenkins who had test accuracy in the 90s and 94% (in Jenkins case and he was world points record holder until DC took over from him) shouldn't be that accurate because they have been 10s (I just don't know what to say I really dont)

So that we fully acknowledge 1/2ps contribution so quickly with so little experience, he had severe injuries in 2010 and 2011, and he hasn't moved to FB for that long........ otherwise I believe he would be a quantum leap above the 2013 model.

Do you know what DCs accuracy or contribution was when he had his holiday in France?

We haven't a crystal ball so we cant see what 1/2p accuracy or contribution will be at the end of his career, but I will stick my neck out that barring injuries he is going to be right up there among the best.

so give him the award in the future.

kicking should be completely removed from the IRB POTY calculation, because every side has at least one kicker, and the winning or conceding of the penalty usually has absolutely nothing to do with whoever slots the points over.

I honestly find it hard to imagine a fullback ever having a genuinely strong claim on the POTY title as they see so little of the ball compared to the positions that usually win it - . 4 or 5 counterattacks - wishful thinking there maybe? few catches and kicks. very occasionally joining the attacking line.

there is a reason that past winners are mostly flyhalves and backrowers. their ability to influence the game via open field play dwarfs any potential contribution of fullback from open field play.

If he was much bigger he'd be Heyneke Meyers dream fullback . At the moment it looks like Meyer wants to cry everytime he picks Willie Le Roux over his love child Zane Kirchner

quinsforever wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Part of halfpennys success rate will be because hes not had to focus on other areas of his game- such as attack. And his rate will reduce because he is currently on a purple patch. As he gets older, as he has to kick in different parts of the world, grounds, weather etc his rate will drop below 90%. All kickers do.

Carter has the responsibility of running the backline, calling the moves, attacking himself- kicking goals is only a small % of his entire repetroire. Its the fact that he can do it all at very high levels that makes him the best 10.

So basically what you are saying that 1/2p only is accurate on his home soil (utter utter tosh)
So you are saying if Wales, Barbarians, Lions moved 1/2p to 10 his dead ball accuracy would diminish (lordy lordy)
So basically what you are saying that players like Steyn or Neil Jenkins who had test accuracy in the 90s and 94% (in Jenkins case and he was world points record holder until DC took over from him) shouldn't be that accurate because they have been 10s (I just don't know what to say I really dont)

So that we fully acknowledge 1/2ps contribution so quickly with so little experience, he had severe injuries in 2010 and 2011, and he hasn't moved to FB for that long........ otherwise I believe he would be a quantum leap above the 2013 model.

Do you know what DCs accuracy or contribution was when he had his holiday in France?

We haven't a crystal ball so we cant see what 1/2p accuracy or contribution will be at the end of his career, but I will stick my neck out that barring injuries he is going to be right up there among the best.

so give him the award in the future.

kicking should be completely removed from the IRB POTY calculation, because every side has at least one kicker, and the winning or conceding of the penalty usually has absolutely nothing to do with whoever slots the points over.

I honestly find it hard to imagine a fullback ever having a genuinely strong claim on the POTY title as they see so little of the ball compared to the positions that usually win it - . 4 or 5 counterattacks - wishful thinking there maybe? few catches and kicks. very occasionally joining the attacking line.

there is a reason that past winners are mostly flyhalves and backrowers. their ability to influence the game via open field play dwarfs any potential contribution of fullback from open field play.

IF there was a fullback i'd give the award to it'd have to be Jason Robinson or Cullen or Latham

How much more influence on a game do you want? Kicking is not the reason Half is picked, he was 2nd kicker until his metronomic record mean't he had to take over.
You might not like it but rugby matches are won by points scored not tries scored. Rugby is about territory as much as possession, its a kicking game as much as a handling game. Like i said Half's kicking record distracts from th erest of his game, he scores a try every 4 tests, is exceptional under the high ball and fearless as last line of defense. Any side would be blessed to have him, oh and he kicks like a machine.

Kicking almost always decides games, even tours

1987 Gavin stuffs it
1997 Jenks wins Lions
1999 De Beer beats England
2003 June Jonny kicks Eng to victory
2003 Jonny slots RWC
2011 Half misses from halfway v France
2013 Half breaks Lions record

Scratch wrote:How much more influence on a game do you want?  Kicking is not the reason Half is picked, he was 2nd kicker until his metronomic record mean't he had to take over.
You might not like it but rugby matches are won by points scored not tries scored. Rugby is about territory as much as possession, its a kicking game as much as a handling game. Like i said Half's kicking record distracts from th erest of his game, he scores a try every 4 tests, is exceptional under the high ball and fearless as last line of defense. Any side would be blessed to have him, oh and he kicks like a machine.

Kicking almost always decides games, even tours

1987 Gavin stuffs it
1997 Jenks wins Lions
1999 De Beer beats England
2003 June Jonny kicks Eng to victory
2003 Jonny slots RWC
2011 Half misses from halfway v France
2013 Half breaks Lions record

Dont make such sweeping statements . Teams that can score a lot of tries dont need to rely heavily on kicking as the All blacks have proved for the last 4 years . England lost on saturday despite their valiant comeback simply because they couldnt score tries to catch up with the All blacks . the Springboks have lost the last 4 to NZ because we cant outscore them when it comes to tries , no matter how many penalties we kick .

Bullsbok wrote:

Scratch wrote:How much more influence on a game do you want?  Kicking is not the reason Half is picked, he was 2nd kicker until his metronomic record mean't he had to take over.
You might not like it but rugby matches are won by points scored not tries scored. Rugby is about territory as much as possession, its a kicking game as much as a handling game. Like i said Half's kicking record distracts from th erest of his game, he scores a try every 4 tests, is exceptional under the high ball and fearless as last line of defense. Any side would be blessed to have him, oh and he kicks like a machine.

Kicking almost always decides games, even tours

1987 Gavin stuffs it
1997 Jenks wins Lions
1999 De Beer beats England
2003 June Jonny kicks Eng to victory
2003 Jonny slots RWC
2011 Half misses from halfway v France
2013 Half breaks Lions record

Dont make such sweeping statements . Teams that can score a lot of tries dont need to rely heavily on kicking as the All blacks have proved for the last 4 years . England lost on saturday despite their valiant comeback simply because they couldnt score tries to catch up with the All blacks . the Springboks have lost the last 4 to NZ because we cant outscore them when it comes to tries , no matter how many penalties we kick .

Matter of fact the last time anyone beat NZ they had to score more tries than them to do it . England 2012 .

Bullsbok wrote:

Scratch wrote:How much more influence on a game do you want?  Kicking is not the reason Half is picked, he was 2nd kicker until his metronomic record mean't he had to take over.
You might not like it but rugby matches are won by points scored not tries scored. Rugby is about territory as much as possession, its a kicking game as much as a handling game. Like i said Half's kicking record distracts from th erest of his game, he scores a try every 4 tests, is exceptional under the high ball and fearless as last line of defense. Any side would be blessed to have him, oh and he kicks like a machine.

Kicking almost always decides games, even tours

1987 Gavin stuffs it
1997 Jenks wins Lions
1999 De Beer beats England
2003 June Jonny kicks Eng to victory
2003 Jonny slots RWC
2011 Half misses from halfway v France
2013 Half breaks Lions record

Dont make such sweeping statements . Its not kicks that broke the England comeback last week. Its tries.

Pretty sure England had flu last week, at least in the 2nd half.

But look Bully, you continue to believe that statistically the more kicks you take the more likely you are to miss, my advice is take some time to go and read up on stats. Each kick is independent of the last or the next, there is no statistical relationship between number of kicks and % success. You have been stumbling all over that one for several days.

If i take 1 kick i have 2 likely results, a hit or miss.

Its the same every time i take one, wholly independent of the previous kick or the next one

Got it now?

So , your suggestion Carters success rate is lower cos he has taken more is , well Bull.

 

and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

I've said it on this thread already but it has got to be Read.

Has stood out this year more than anyone and performed at a ridiculous, unbelievable level while arguably playing against sterner opposition in tougher competitions. He is in such amazing form that he makes others seem average, really on a different level.

Halfpenny to me has been consistent without being amazing. I don't fear when he gets the ball as when Read does. Read has been a created and scorer of amazing tries all while getting through the dirty work an eight is expected to do.

Saying that Read performs in a team of world class players and thus at an advantage is convenient now. Over the last few years the amount of times here, Welsh press etc I've read that Wales have the best backrow, the best front row, the best back 3, the best scrum in the world blah blah blah, you'd think it was wales who were the real world class team.

Halfpenny has been as good as JDV, Etsebeth, Moore etc this year. 8 out of ten almost every game, really solid. But read has been at 9's and 10's. AMAZING!

I think it was 3 tries each. England had 8 kicks at goal to NZ's 2.

NZ have scored more tries than the opposition in all but 3 games since the world cup final. Against Ireland (2nd test), Australia (draw in Brisbane) and England (last year). In all cases the tries scored were equal. These are the three worst performances NZ has had. It makes sense really a converted try is equal to more than 2 penalties.

blackcanelion wrote:I think given the way we play, we'd be more likely to opt for someone like Folau or Brown before Halfpenny. That's not to denigrate him, he's a great player. It's more a reflection on how we use the fullback. That's not to say he wouldn't be a useful addition. I think they'd look at him as an option on the wing (we essentially play a second fullback anyway).

Explain please.

I was a massive advocate that our own Stuart Hogg should have been the Lions FB before the tour started because he was faster (acceleration and long play), stronger, better in the air, just as good a defender and just as good a kicker....... I realised by the end of the tour that I was totally wrong. Halfpenny was a country mile ahead of any other Lions or Aussie back throughout the tour.

The last Lions game revealed how quick from the FB line Halfpenny really is, he has concentrated his limited time on improving his bulk, his defence, his aerial skills, his kicking out of hand from all around the park, and his short dead ball kicking. I believe Gatland has said Wales will run the ball a lot more from their own 22 from now on, so I think you will see a more "structured" attacking feature coming into his role more and more going forward. As somebody said he scores tries 1 in 4 games, I think that will be bettered from now on

Scratch wrote:How much more influence on a game do you want?  Kicking is not the reason Half is picked, he was 2nd kicker until his metronomic record mean't he had to take over.
You might not like it but rugby matches are won by points scored not tries scored. Rugby is about territory as much as possession, its a kicking game as much as a handling game. Like i said Half's kicking record distracts from th erest of his game, he scores a try every 4 tests, is exceptional under the high ball and fearless as last line of defense. Any side would be blessed to have him, oh and he kicks like a machine.

Kicking almost always decides games, even tours

1987 Gavin stuffs it
1997 Jenks wins Lions
1999 De Beer beats England
2003 June Jonny kicks Eng to victory
2003 Jonny slots RWC
2011 Half misses from halfway v France
2013 Half breaks Lions record

well if he's not picked because of his kicking then he shouldn't win irb POTY based on it either.

every side has a kicker. absent 1/2P, all those kicks may well have gone over anyway - i hear adam jones has a mean toe punt on him.

Regardless, Halfpenny will still get the award because of the way it works. Ben Smiths purple patch vs France will take some of the voting from Read. Halfpenny had less competition for his points...

Scratch wrote:and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

if you're starting from 97% accuracy with 300 points kicked, then probabilistically i would agree with bullsbok that its more likely to get worse than better.

MMaaxx wrote:I've said it on this thread already but it has got to be Read.

Has stood out this year more than anyone and performed at a ridiculous, unbelievable level while arguably playing against sterner opposition in tougher competitions. He is in such amazing form that he makes others seem average, really on a different level.

Halfpenny to me has been consistent without being amazing. I don't fear when he gets the ball as when Read does. Read has been a created and scorer of amazing tries all while getting through the dirty work an eight is expected to do.

Saying that Read performs in a team of world class players and thus at an advantage is convenient now. Over the last few years the amount of times here, Welsh press etc I've read that Wales have the best backrow, the best front row, the best back 3, the best scrum in the world blah blah blah, you'd think it was wales who were the real world class team.

Halfpenny has been as good as JDV, Etsebeth, Moore etc this year. 8 out of ten almost every game, really solid. But read has been at 9's and 10's. AMAZING!

Do you think Read is the best defensive 8 in the world, do you think he had a great defensive game against England last week?

quinsforever wrote:

Scratch wrote:and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

if you're starting from 97% accuracy with 300 points kicked, then probabilistically i would agree with bullsbok that its more likely to get worse than better.

course you would, and you're wrong. you shouldn't fly either because promulgating your 'probabilistic' theory every time you do it increases the chance you will crash

second thoughts….. 

Scratch wrote:

quinsforever wrote:

Scratch wrote:and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

if you're starting from 97% accuracy with 300 points kicked, then probabilistically i would agree with bullsbok that its more likely to get worse than better.

course you would, and you're wrong. you shouldn't fly either because promulgating your 'probabilistic' theory every time you do it increases the chance you will crash

second thoughts….. 

No point arguing with you guys , Obviously 1/2p will maintain his 97% kicking record till he retires

flyhalffactory wrote:

MMaaxx wrote:I've said it on this thread already but it has got to be Read.

Has stood out this year more than anyone and performed at a ridiculous, unbelievable level while arguably playing against sterner opposition in tougher competitions. He is in such amazing form that he makes others seem average, really on a different level.

Halfpenny to me has been consistent without being amazing. I don't fear when he gets the ball as when Read does. Read has been a created and scorer of amazing tries all while getting through the dirty work an eight is expected to do.

Saying that Read performs in a team of world class players and thus at an advantage is convenient now. Over the last few years the amount of times here, Welsh press etc I've read that Wales have the best backrow, the best front row, the best back 3, the best scrum in the world blah blah blah, you'd think it was wales who were the real world class team.

Halfpenny has been as good as JDV, Etsebeth, Moore etc this year. 8 out of ten almost every game, really solid. But read has been at 9's and 10's. AMAZING!

Do you think Read is the best defensive 8 in the world, do you think he had a great defensive game against England last week?

He made 10 out of 10 tackles at 8, so actually he did have a pretty good defensive game at 8...

quinsforever wrote:

Scratch wrote:and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

if you're starting from 97% accuracy with 300 points kicked, then probabilistically i would agree with bullsbok that its more likely to get worse than better.

I agree

ChequeredJersey wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote:

MMaaxx wrote:I've said it on this thread already but it has got to be Read.

Has stood out this year more than anyone and performed at a ridiculous, unbelievable level while arguably playing against sterner opposition in tougher competitions. He is in such amazing form that he makes others seem average, really on a different level.

Halfpenny to me has been consistent without being amazing. I don't fear when he gets the ball as when Read does. Read has been a created and scorer of amazing tries all while getting through the dirty work an eight is expected to do.

Saying that Read performs in a team of world class players and thus at an advantage is convenient now. Over the last few years the amount of times here, Welsh press etc I've read that Wales have the best backrow, the best front row, the best back 3, the best scrum in the world blah blah blah, you'd think it was wales who were the real world class team.

Halfpenny has been as good as JDV, Etsebeth, Moore etc this year. 8 out of ten almost every game, really solid. But read has been at 9's and 10's. AMAZING!

Do you think Read is the best defensive 8 in the world, do you think he had a great defensive game against England last week?

He made 10 out of 10 tackles at 8, so actually he did have a pretty good defensive game at 8...

  

Bullsbok

Not arguing at all

Just trying to get you to understand that because DC has taken more kicks that has no bearing on his accuracy stats.

That is all.

Ii think the solution to keep everyone happy seems to be to have a POTTY for every position or one for best player one for best kicker

Bet Half would win both!

BTW should we revoke Jonny's award from 2003?

Scratch wrote:

quinsforever wrote:

Scratch wrote:and Bull, if you really believe the more you kick the more you will miss, i strongly advise you to stop flying

if you're starting from 97% accuracy with 300 points kicked, then probabilistically i would agree with bullsbok that its more likely to get worse than better.

course you would, and you're wrong. you shouldn't fly either because promulgating your 'probabilistic' theory every time you do it increases the chance you will crash

second thoughts….. 

i'm wrong. that's it? another sophisticated rebuttal? your coin-toss analogy is irrelevant. if 1/2 takes another 300 kicks and gets them all, his career avg would go to 99%. so thats the upside scenario. the downside scenario is obviously greater.

thats why staying at 97% ts unlikely. reasons? wales lose their scrummaging advantage so no more pens in the middle? wales are not winning, so more pressure on 1/2P to make his kicks. could be lots of different reasons.

He is the most intelligent that's for sure and his offloading game is second to none.

It's not about one aspect. For example Lancaster on Rugby Club tonight lauded Vinipola's 'rise and dominance against New Zealand'. All week the English press went on and on about him for taking the ball up to the All Blacks. I was at the game and remember thinking what a stupid player. Not once did he run at space, at and angle, offload, find a support runner etc. Always head down at the contact and to ground. Read does all the head down charging, tackling, stealing etc but adds to it real skill and intelligence.

Scratch wrote:Bullsbok

Not arguing at all

Just trying to get you to understand that because DC has taken more kicks that has no bearing on his accuracy stats.

That is all.

Ii think the solution to keep everyone happy seems to be to have a POTTY for every position or one for best player one for best kicker

Bet Half would win both!

BTW should we revoke Jonny's award from 2003?

rather shall we just agree that when 1/2P wins a RWC final with a drop goal. or beats NZ in NZ scoring a drop goal off each foot, then he is ready for the POTY award? open play is more important than place kicking.

Scratch wrote:Bullsbok

Not arguing at all

Just trying to get you to understand that because DC has taken more kicks that has no bearing on his accuracy stats.

That is all.

Ii think the solution to keep everyone happy seems to be to have a POTTY for every position or one for best player one for best kicker

Bet Half would win both!

BTW should we revoke Jonny's award from 2003?

Now we're going to compare Jonny Wilkinsons 2003 achievements to Leigh Halfpenny 2013 ? Do you really want to go down this particular road?

MMaaxx wrote:He is the most intelligent that's for sure and his offloading game is second to none.

It's not about one aspect. For example Lancaster on Rugby Club tonight lauded Vinipola's 'rise and dominance against New Zealand'. All week the English press went on and on about him for taking the ball up to the All Blacks. I was at the game and remember thinking what a stupid player. Not once did he run at space, at and angle, offload, find a support runner etc. Always head down at the contact and to ground. Read does all the head down charging, tackling, stealing etc but adds to it real skill and intelligence.

to be fair to billy v he's only a youngster. he should be massively flattered to even be compared to Read.

quinsforever wrote:

Scratch wrote:Bullsbok

Not arguing at all

Just trying to get you to understand that because DC has taken more kicks that has no bearing on his accuracy stats.

That is all.

Ii think the solution to keep everyone happy seems to be to have a POTTY for every position or one for best player one for best kicker

Bet Half would win both!

BTW should we revoke Jonny's award from 2003?

rather shall we just agree that when 1/2P wins a RWC final with a drop goal. or beats NZ in NZ scoring a drop goal off each foot, then he is ready for the POTY award? open play is more important than place kicking.

Couldnt agree more . Technically speaking , you could remove Halfpenny from placekicking duties and give them to someone else and you'll get more or less the same result if the kicker is anywhere near competent. You cant do the same for Jonny . Drop kicking in open play is a different beast altogether

yes quoins, you may not be used to it in your world but you are very wrong.

Its a coin toss

Half could have taken only 100 career kicks and potentially have a higher accuracy rate than Carter at 87%.

Each kick is independent, who many times do i have go explain it to you for you to get it

The more kicks DC takes does not, repeat not for the hard of hearing, affect his accuracy rate

How about this

If i bring 2 blood capsules onto the pitch am i 100% likely to get caught?  

Bullsbok wrote:

Scratch wrote:Bullsbok

Not arguing at all

Just trying to get you to understand that because DC has taken more kicks that has no bearing on his accuracy stats.

That is all.

Ii think the solution to keep everyone happy seems to be to have a POTTY for every position or one for best player one for best kicker

Bet Half would win both!

BTW should we revoke Jonny's award from 2003?

Now we're going to compare Jonny Wilkinsons 2003 achievements to Leigh Halfpenny  2013 ? Do you really want to go down this particular road?

oh ffs Bulls get a sense of humor

Scratch wrote:yes quoins, you may not be used to it in your world but you are very wrong.

Its a coin toss

Half could have taken only 100 career kicks and potentially have a higher accuracy rate than Carter at 87%.

Each kick is independent, who many times do i have go explain it to you for you to get it

The more kicks DC takes does not, repeat not for the hard of hearing, affect his accuracy rate

How about this

If i bring 2 blood capsules onto the pitch am i 100% likely to get caught?   

Funny enough in rugby each kick is not necessarily independent . These arent robots kicking the ball. They're still human , which is why confidence plays a big part in kicking . Why was Rhys Priestland replaced as Welsh Kicker? He missed 2 kicks during a game , confidence levels went down , he missed another one till eventually the kicking duties were taken over by 1/2p . Sometimes you just have a bad day in general and cant get the kicks . Quade Cooper is another example of a good kicker who can have bad days and miss horribly all day long . So NO kicks are not necessarily independent as a series of misses can definitely crash your confidence leading to a slump of form .

Utterly pointless having a battle of wits with an unarmed man

If you won't/can't accept you are wrong then fine

Yes, you are right, as a kickers career goes on, each kick they take is more likely to be missed than the last

Leigh halfpenny's kicking accuracy is only so high because he has taken so few kicks

Each time he kicks there are more than 2 possible outcomes

Each kick will somehow mystically have a direct affect on the next kick

if he misses one he is more likely to miss the next one

Glad w shave that sorted, now, where are my razor blades

Kicks are not independent, it's called form isn't it?

ChequeredJersey wrote:Kicks are not independent, it's called form isn't it?

THANK YOU  

Ok so form decreases with frequency does it?

It does not follow that the MORE one takes, as Bullsbok asserts, the higher failure rate

If i take 10 kicks i can have a 90 % success rate

If i take 10, 000 kicks i can still maintain a 90% success rate

 

Scratch wrote:yes quoins, you may not be used to it in your world but you are very wrong.

Its a coin toss

Half could have taken only 100 career kicks and potentially have a higher accuracy rate than Carter at 87%.

Each kick is independent, who many times do i have go explain it to you for you to get it

The more kicks DC takes does not, repeat not for the hard of hearing, affect his accuracy rate

How about this

If i bring 2 blood capsules onto the pitch am i 100% likely to get caught?   

its about probability distributions not dependence.

flyhalffactory understood my point. either you cant or wont.

here's a link. i'm not going to explain it anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

Scratch wrote:Ok so form decreases with frequency does it?

It does not follow that the MORE one takes, as Bullsbok asserts, the higher failure rate

If i take 10 kicks i can have a 90 % success rate

If i take 10, 000 kicks i can still maintain a 90% success rate

 

he has had good form. form is not a permanent state. although you obviously believe it is for 1/2P.

you'll excuse everyone else on this board for not being as credulous

Scratch wrote:Utterly pointless having a battle of wits with an unarmed man

If you won't/can't accept you are wrong then fine

Yes, you are right, as a kickers career goes on, each kick they take is more likely to be missed than the last

Leigh halfpenny's kicking accuracy is only so high because he has taken so few kicks

Each time he kicks there are more than 2 possible outcomes

Each kick will somehow mystically have a direct affect on the next kick

if he misses one he is more likely to miss the next one

Glad w shave that sorted, now, where are my razor blades

 you might need arms to have a battle of wits, i dont think the rest of us do

Actually Scratch I think Halfpenny's kicking contribution to the team is important and should be taken into account. However, I disagree that each kick is independent. Players get rhythm and confidence when kicking (surely people wouldn't argue with that point) and can lose it as well if kicking poorly - which suggests that each kick is not fully independent.

Halfpenny may maintain his incredible % but the history of other great kickers suggests he will slip back a bit. Anyway all of that is unimportant as that is the future. We are supposed to be talking about this season not might be.

ah quoins you are back…i wondered what the predicability is of you coming back with a link to wikipedia, that fountain of reliable knowledge. I was 100% sure you would.  

Surprised you didn't enlighten us with your knowledge of probability distributions, not dependence, prior to feverishly searching for something on the net to back you up. Man you're good.

Also, you posted on this thread that kicking should have no bearing on the POTY yet you also suggested jonny's award was because of his kicking in an roc of both feet etc.

So which is it fella, can you explain - statistically- how you can change your mind quite so quickly

Scratch wrote:ah quoins you are back…i wondered what the predicability is of you coming  back with a link to wikipedia, that fountain of reliable knowledge. I was 100% sure you would.  

Surprised you didn't enlighten us with your knowledge of probability distributions, not dependence, prior to feverishly searching for something on the net to back you up. Man you're good.

Also, you posted on this thread that kicking should have no bearing on the POTY yet you also suggested jonny's award was because of his kicking in an roc of both feet etc.

So which is it fella, can you explain - statistically- how you can change your mind quite so quickly

Yes attack the man when holes are found in your flawed argument  

Scratch wrote:ah quoins you are back…i wondered what the predicability is of you coming  back with a link to wikipedia, that fountain of reliable knowledge. I was 100% sure you would.  

Surprised you didn't enlighten us with your knowledge of probability distributions, not dependence, prior to feverishly searching for something on the net to back you up. Man you're good.

Also, you posted on this thread that kicking should have no bearing on the POTY yet you also suggested jonny's award was because of his kicking in an roc of both feet etc.

So which is it fella, can you explain - statistically- how you can change your mind quite so quickly

are you actually as dense as this makes me think or is it just a ploy?

place-kicking is not the same as scoring drop goals. johnny did lots of stuff, the first i mentioned sealed a RWC victory, the second was instrumental in defeating NZ in NZ in 2003. and they were both IN OPEN PLAY.

there was no point me attempting to explain normal distributions and probabiity. your sad jibes make it all too clear how you would have responded. the reason what is on the net backs me up is because the point i was making is obvious.

with your arms though i'm sure you'll be able to figure it out