AB's, stats, the challenge ahead and Merry Xmas

Coming to the end of 2013 I thought I'd add a small piece on the challenges that lay ahead for the rest of the worlds rugby sides. Its possibly a piece that I may not be able to do for a while should the AB's be finally knocked off their perch over the next 12 months.
In a calendar year where they have reached rugby perfection in a professional sense perhaps some information as to why I believe if anything the gap between the AB's is getting larger than ever, and increasingly so.

Came across a small book that looked at the ABs up to 1/1/2012 so all stats and findings here are up to that date only. Since that date NZ has won all but 1 (with 1 drawn) in 2012 and 100% in 2013 so in the time since these stats the % have most likely increased. The book is called All Blacks Supreme by Geoff Miller.

No better way to illustrate the stats than to point out its key findings and more interesting if not startling findings- some I wasnt even remotely aware of.

1 The AB's have won nearly 50% more games than the next best team
2 The ABs have won 19% more tests than the next best team
3 The first decade of the twentieth century has been the most successful in AB history
4 The Abs average 20% more tries than the next best team.
5 The Abs have won 12% more games, scored 35% more points and scored 50% moe tries than any other side at the Rugby World cup.
6 During the pro era the Abs average losing margin has reduced by 10% since it began

All fairly as you'd expect with the AB's but some interesting findings:
1 Losses by 20+ points:
AB's : 1 (It is said the AB's can be guilty of losing the close ones- possibly thats because thats all they have?- and something in 2013 particularly they cannot be guilty of)
Boks: 16
Oz: 32
England: 34
France: 50
Wales: 51

2 Highest losing margins and scores in Internationals:
Of the 5 top home unions, the Lions and the 3 main SH sides:
- All 9 have had their highest losing margin to a SH top 3 side (SA = 3, Aus = 3 and ABs = 3)
- All 9 have had their highest losing score to a top SH 3 side (SA = 3, Aus = 1 and ABs = 5)

3 International players- % wins
For those who have played 50 tests or more the top 17 are AB's starting with McCaw at 88.3% to Umaga in 17th spot with 79.7%.
The next highest is Jason Little of Oz on 77.3% then Johnson of England on 77.2%

4 In 2012 the Abs became the highest point scorers in tests, overtaking France- who have played 200 more tests than the AB's.

5 The Abs have a winning % of 75% (84% from 2001 to 2010 and now higher 2011- now= 90%). The second team- SA, would have to win their next 200 consecutive test matches to achieve a 75% win rate.

So those are largely the stats up to 2012.

Since the book NZ has up'd its margin to 92.9% for 2012/13 and 100% in 2013. So there is no doubt that the gap is increasing, illustrated 'perfectly' by the 2013 season.

I believe this is largely due to one primary reason: The Abs have learned to be resourceful in every manner of the word.
In terms of managing players with Sabbaticals, introducing newer players quicker in 2012 and 2013 depth has been established in many positions to cover injuries, sabbaticals and poor form on occasion.

In term's of on the field play they've shown resilience in terms of adapting to the game conditions, opposition style of play and coping with whatever has been thrown at them in order to come out on top.

Ellis park was a primary example. Our worst ground for results, most feared opponents, altitude, 2 yellow cards in the killer second half and a desperate Bok side playing brilliant rugby was not enough to put the side off.

Similarly Ireland were leading at 80 minutes and the AB's showed skill, execution (excuse the pun) and composure of the highest levels to get the ball over the line through persistent driving and clearing ball play. To a lesser degree Eden park vs the Boks, England and France in Paris were examples of never say die.

Not the most exciting AB side ever, but in terms of grit, determination and resourcefulness, surely one of the best.
One might consider the Boks and others are getting nearer to the AB's but the stats say otherwise.
2010-1 loss
2011- 2 losses
2012- 1 loss
2013- No losses
The Boks are improving and have potential but in terms of beating the AB's that looks just as close as it has since 2009. 2013 showed they'll need much more to beat a side that despite what is thrown at it, simply refuses to lose.

So I post the now in the event that it may not apply this time next year if the AB's do drop their guard. But for now, that's is the challenge ahead for 2014.

Merry Christmas all...and good luck to the NH sides in the 6N...while we get this Xmas/ new year thing out of the way and get on with the sxv.

Good reading for an AB fan, thanks Tman

Our new players that have been introduced have held a good account of themselves and maybe a point of difference. I gather young fringe players are bought into the environment long before they get their first test. This must make them feel comfortable and not blinded by the bright lights. Also the senior players are more welcoming rather than making them feel like little kids.

We've got our rotation just about right to.

And more than anything, the All Blacks are humble and don't gloat about their superiority.

The players are, yes

The ABs are humble but we have every right to feel proud of their efforts. An exceptional year and the AI series saw us in every game tested to the end. The peak of Ellis Park was never reached again in terms of performance but the heart and determination showed was never greater.

The rest of the world is waiting for the crash and England and SA will be supported by the neutral rugby world to do that. Any side will really. Fair enough. That just increases the pressure on the side and from what it seems, that brings out the best in them.

2014 is the last full season before the RWC. The team will bring through the young talent and manage the experienced players. The whole squad will be needed to ensure consistency in performance and that is good preparation for 2015. A well earned rest for the players and an intriguing Super season coming up. Who will put their hand up for higher honours and who will save their best for black?

The rest of the world is gunning for you NZ. Entering unprecedented events here defending a perfect season. The boys in black have all of NZ's support and admiration (and Alan's!) and we are so proud of what they achieved in 2013. kia kaha

A better record than any side in the professional era, and over such a prolonged period. Better than England 2002, SA 2007 and the great welsh side of the 70's.

Truely the best side ever, and only improving, with so many youngsters making a name, and veterans returning. Hard to see anything but back to back world cups.

GloriousEmpire wrote:A better record than any side in the professional era, and over such a prolonged period. Better than England 2002, SA 2007 and the great welsh side of the 70's.

Truely the best side ever, and only improving, with so many youngsters making a name, and veterans returning. Hard to see anything but back to back world cups.

The only possible problem I can see you may have is that some of your forwards may be on a downward trajectory. Are Woodcock, McCaw etc. going to get any better. Probably not. Their replacements may be good enough but it's still early days for someone like Cane. In the backs, as usual, I can't see anyone will be missed, including Carter. Cruden and Barrett both look absolutely brilliant. Maybe a little lack of depth at centre should players be injured?

Just a bit worried that this cycle is drawing parallels with 97 leading into 98-NZ's worst ever run of defeats (five on the trot). However the way Hansen is introducing new blood indicates his willingness to be proactive to avoid the loss of key players. Fitzpatrick, Zinzan and Michael Jones are three of the best players ever and the All Blacks were just not prepared for losing all three of them at once. Carter and McCaw were always the obvious ones but we're not anywhere near as nervous now with Cane's impressive physicality, Cruden's game management coming on and Barrett's star rising in a big way. Barrett got belief into the team in Dublin. I saw it first hand-the crowd were nervous every time he got the ball after his first couple of touches.

NZ will lose at some stage and naturally the press will be all over it. "Is it over? All Black World Cup dreams take a big dent..." headlines will be the order of the day. Anything to gee up their rivals I guess as NZ have been at their most dominant between Cups. But I see this as a continuation of the last World Cup cycle. It's brilliant winning it, but playing like World Champions afterwards for two whole years gives me great satisfaction as an AB supporter. That's something noone can take away from the team at the moment. 2011 was a massive emotional breakthrough and to step up from that was so impressive.

As I've said before Test rugby is a game of inches. NZ aren't miles better than anyone else. You don't have to be to have their record. You just have to be a wee bit better on the scoreboard most of the time. That's how the wins all add up. So all this claptrap by NH media about NZ aren't unbeatable, so and so gave them a good run, almost blah blah blah, is stating the bloody obvious. NZ win 3/4 Tests. In a 14 test year that's 3-4 losses. Just another example of media not holding teams to the same standards. Judging one team by their own and NZ by theirs-not a common set-is an annoyance but it does drum up confidence in their own team so understand why it is done.

World Cups are obviously something NZ would like to get better at-a 75% win rate means you're still odds on to lose at some stage and NZ become just another team trying to win it. Especially with the emotions running so high at these things, other teams' fire has often melted the Blacks' proverbial ice (also only to lose the following week in a disappointing rabble a la France). Hansen's just gotta trust himself. NZ usually come into Cups in pretty good shape compared to other teams due to the all time win record so we'll always be in with a good shout (hence the C word being bandied about so often). But it still won't prevent Kiwis from having a nervous breakdown.

Can NZ hang onto its place at the top of the tree? We'll see. With a Quade Cooper led resurgent Australia, and South Africa being pretty much as good as us (they were perfect in their non NZ tests this year) coupled with an England side that is starting to get dangerously settled. It's a tragedy the first NZ England test will be affected as it will be a cracker of a series and I can imagine England really lamenting that situation in its aftermath.

So to NZ, kudos. Just keep doing what you're doing and innovating to stay ahead of the pack. You won't lose us fans if you drop a game. But the way you bounce back will be met with interest from all parties. Go hard boys, and Merry Christmas (that last bit is for all you lot too )

Nice DC. If a loss or two come it will be timely in terms of motivation. In 2015 RC I'd like to see us with a B side for our away games. If we lose we have the excuse that we didn't have our full strength side and if we win our depth looks frightening. But next year Id like to see a degree of rotation and players like Cane and Barrett with more starts.

It as been a well know fact for a long time NZ play well between world cups. But usualy choke at the RWC it self. It as been said that the ref's give them special treatment. Do not ping them for going off their feet etc, slowing the ball down.

At the Moment NZ are theee team to beat. will they be the team to beat come rugby world cup? I guess we will have to wait and see about that.

Yawn. Just as well or rugby would hardly be a competitive sport.

If it has been said like that, I suspect it 'as been said after the drink's have been flowing' (sic).

Madj looked in the excuse cupboard...and it was bare.

Actually, that was a nice new insight from majestic, clap, clap....clap

Thought I'd leave it a day before checking in on this one. Not too many objections I see. For the pro era its as good as it can possibly get so you'd expect the only way is down I suppose, hence the timing of this.

If by the end of next year the AB's are still 100% then that would be something. Cant see it though. 3 x England and a 6-0 RC does look difficult. They did it this year with France and last year with Ireland so who knows what this side still has in them.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:The ABs are humble but we have every right to feel proud of their efforts. An exceptional year and the AI series saw us in every game tested to the end. The peak of Ellis Park was never reached again in terms of performance but the heart and determination showed was never greater.

The rest of the world is waiting for the crash and England and SA will be supported by the neutral rugby world to do that. Any side will really. Fair enough. That just increases the pressure on the side and from what it seems, that brings out the best in them.

2014 is the last full season before the RWC. The team will bring through the young talent and manage the experienced players. The whole squad will be needed to ensure consistency in performance and that is good preparation for 2015. A well earned rest for the players and an intriguing Super season coming up. Who will put their hand up for higher honours and who will save their best for black?

The rest of the world is gunning for you NZ. Entering unprecedented events here defending a perfect season. The boys in black have all of NZ's support and admiration (and Alan's!) and we are so proud of what they achieved in 2013. kia kaha

Pride comes before a fall, and there is a huge difference between pride and the cycloptic, self gratifying spluff fest that some engage in over this years performance. The pride is justified and deserved. But the caveat here is that with both a resurgent SA and Australia coming good as well as England on tour I would expect to see NZ face a sterner and more informative test next year.

There is no need for huge crash and in my view that is unlikely, but this is a standard, between world cups, peak for NZ and the key for them is to be sitting pretty in Jan 15, then it will be theirs to lose.

Absolutely Scratch. Other sides tend to get up for the knockout matches vs the ABs more than the ABs do themselves and we need to treat the knockouts 'differently' somehow in terms of motivation because winning elsewhere doesn't follow that they'll win the knockout. Its an odd feeling watching them win here, there and everywhere then somehow expect them to be even more motivated for a knockout match. Still a win but attaching a different value to one match over another seems difficult.

Yes, the problem is not the NZ was so good, but that everyone else was off-form.

As I said. After three seasons of this, the excuse cupboard is looking bare.

I reckon Hansen's soaked up the issues facing the AB's in the past really well. The Donald white-baiting inclusion and several retirees/ ageds of 2011 has prompted the huge influx of youth.

The England loss from last year taught him that the AB's had to regather themselves after a huge home year already to get up for all the AI matches and if he hadn't done that the AB's would have lost at least one as tough as they all ended up.

To finish the Ireland match the way they did in the eighty first minute of the last match of the year speaks volumes for their resolve.

The next challenge is to build on NZ's depth over the next two years and work out the effectiveness of keeping McCaw on- something he'll need to monitor test by test. McCaw is still a force but not what he was and two years is too long for that call not to become a reality.

At the World cup he needs to work out how to manage the team through the pool play to keep them competitive in the knockouts. As we know the month of pool play is where we play the worst opponents possible- so far 63-12 average with 9 tries to 1- hardly the competition we need before a knockout match.

To me McCaw is your greatest strength and your biggest weakness….managing him will test Hansen because he has an O'Driscoll level of hype around him. Now, unlike Drico, I think Ritchie will bow out on his terms and i don't believe Hansen will even have to tell him when that day has come, he will know. I just hope they get it right because if there is a sentimental approach to him and Carter, who for me are both on their way out, then the team may suffer.

I know NZ fans tend to wax lyrical about how they are not sentimental about players when its time to go, but these two might break the mould.

I think you mean first decade of the 21st Century, unless you are including Wales smashing you in 1905.

Yep 21st. Re McCaw the main thing is they're building underneath the man and he of all people understands that the show must go on. Keeping the BODs and Smits going till they drop is by comparison irresponsible team management. Well before they finish they've a duty to blood in likely successors even at the expense of having the old hands off the field longer to do so.

Now that's obviously easier to say than do when you're sides not winning but that luxury sitting with just the ABs will make it doubly harder for other sides when its only them replacing their guns with test hardened replacements.

At least that makes the exits for the Mccaws and DCs more tolerable and they can be managed out with dignity while still winning the matches in a timely manner.

In saying that DC and McCaw will be training their butt off to make that 15 side.

Nice one rainbow. 3 - 0, even with a different points system, was a right royal thrashing back in the day.   

I think you'll find Scratch October 2015 is when NZ need to peak. January 2015 they'll be sitting pretty on the beach. Ireland will be hoping they can fit in another game before then because they are looming as likely quarter final opponents and NZ might well treat the last game of this season as the second test in 2012: as if it were a loss. If Ireland win their pool then that means a France quarter final and then that'll mean panic buying on bog roll with a semi final looming against SA as a reward for winning that quarter final. The challenge is huge. There's no getting away from that. But before then there are many other challenges to face. So far those challenges have been met. There's no shame in recognising that. We don't want to appear ungrateful.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Nice one rainbow. 3 - 0, even with a different points system, was a right royal thrashing back in the day.   

Remember you have only had 45 years of dominance over us You only took the lead in test matches in 1969. Sure we seemed to go to sleep then lol On the verge of waking up again? Possibly.

South Africa then the Lions then Wales were the big 3 for us in the 70s. I thought the 1980 win over Wales with mouries try...even though one of the passes was at least five yards forward ...the first time i thought we really got the wood over them...20 to 3 i think it was.
The Lions best sides do seem to be predominantly Welsh based don't they?