Rotterdam (or anywhere) Thread

[The Special Juan]

Rotterdam could be a big tournament this year in the battle for a top 4 place. The top seed is DelPo meaning that we're missing Nadal, Djokovic and Wawrinka, plus Federer. However, Murray has made a late entry into the competition after taking a WC and is seeded 2nd, ahead of Berdych and Gasquet.

The draw is quite interesting and there are a few nice-looking matches in the opening round:

DelPo v Monfils
Haas v Verdasco
Tsonga v F. Mayer
Cilic v Rosol

The top half is definitely heavier than the bottom with DelPo, Gulbis, Dimitrov, Berdych, Janowicz, Haas and Verdasco all capable of causing damage. Murray, Tsonga, Gasquet (who's in a semi-final today in France) and Youzhny are the big players in the bottom.

[CaledonianCraig]

I think the fact Murray has taken a wildcard here is a signal of intent that he wants to rectify his ranking and fast. In recent years after the Australian Open he has had a tendency to only enter the big masters tournaments before the clay season but this year he is entering Rotterdam and Acapulco. Perhaps he also feels the need to regain full match sharpness.

[The Special Juan]

He knows he needs a fast start in these 2 Masters coming up as he's defending a QF and W from last year. If he falls early in both of them then that could give him a horrible draw for Wimbledon (I expect him to do nothing special on clay). The FO might be a big tournament for him.

I also want to see Murray win a 500 - it's been a while. For DelPo on the other hand, it's the only tournaments he wins!!

[banbrotam]

I think it's more likely that he just wants to get more match practice

Even if he hadn't entered these, he'd be likely to rise as Ferrer and particualry Del Boy have an awful lot of points to defend this month

I also don't think the two Masters are a worry, I'd back him to reach the SF of both, if he's back which isn't much less than a win and QF

I also don't expect him to become Nadal on Clay, but I do expect him to do better than last year

Not worried about Wimbledon. I think he is now so confident on grass, that he will be the man to beat. Of course unless he wins he loses points, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't gain up to an including Wimbledon

[The Special Juan]

DelPo beats Monfils in straight sets, Andy M just getting warmed up to play Gary Neville's twin Roger-Vasselin.

[The Special Juan]

Andy M wins. Plays a young player (Dominic Thiem) next.

[zaron]

He knows he needs a fast start in these 2 Masters coming up as he's defending a QF and W from last year.  If he falls early in both of them then that could give him a horrible draw for Wimbledon (I expect him to do nothing special on clay).  The FO might be a big tournament for him.

I also want to see Murray win a 500 - it's been a while.  For DelPo on the other hand, it's the only tournaments he wins!!

But remember, for the Wimbeldon seeding they add points for grass court tournaments in the last two years.
Murray gets a huge bonus of around 2900 points. Of the top 8, the next best is Djokovic 1740, then Federer 1545, Del Potro 855, Ferrer 630, Berdych 495, Wawrinka 122, Nadal 43. (These numbers are subject to change by upto 250 points depending on how well players do at Halle/Queens).

So this means if all the players defend their points up to Wimbeldon the seedings would be
1. 14373 Nadal      
2. 12320 Djokovic  
3.   7695 Murray
4.   6225 Del Potro    
5.   5910 Ferrer        
6.   5900 Federer      
7.   5832 Wawrinka    
8.   5035 Berdych      

So Murray is well ahead in the race for a top 4 seed. But behind him its very close between 4-7, and even Berdych isn't too far behind.

I'll make a table closer to Wimbeldon if the race stays interesting

[The Special Juan]

He knows he needs a fast start in these 2 Masters coming up as he's defending a QF and W from last year.  If he falls early in both of them then that could give him a horrible draw for Wimbledon (I expect him to do nothing special on clay).  The FO might be a big tournament for him.

I also want to see Murray win a 500 - it's been a while.  For DelPo on the other hand, it's the only tournaments he wins!!

But remember, for the Wimbeldon seeding they add points for grass court tournaments in the last two years.
Murray gets a huge bonus of around 2900 points. Of the top 8, the next best is Djokovic 1740, then Federer 1545, Del Potro 855, Ferrer 630, Berdych 495, Wawrinka 122, Nadal 43. (These numbers are subject to change by upto 250 points depending on how well players do at Halle/Queens).

So this means if all the players defend their points up to Wimbeldon the seedings would be
1. 14373 Nadal      
2. 12320 Djokovic  
3.   7695 Murray
4.   6225 Del Potro    
5.   5910 Ferrer        
6.   5900 Federer      
7.   5832 Wawrinka    
8.   5035 Berdych      

So Murray is well ahead in the race for a top 4 seed. But behind him its very close between 4-7, and even Berdych isn't too far behind.

I'll make a table closer to Wimbeldon if the race stays interesting

So they do!! Thanks for reminding me. He'll be well seeded for Wimbledon, then, regardless of what happens.

[The Special Juan]

Thiem has taken Murray to a decider....

[The Special Juan]

He might be a break down but Thiem isn't giving up. In fact, not giving up has been a.... recurring feature of this match. Murray leads 5-2 after a big hold.

[The Special Juan]

Three interesting QFs in Rotterdam...

DelPo v Gulbis
Berdych v Janowicz
Murray v Cilic

This could be a very big tournament for Gulbis or Janowicz with the top 2 players having questionable levels of fitness.

[MMT1]

I have to say, I'm a little disappointed the Dimitrov didn't find a way to break through Gulbis, who was serving very well, but made so many errors on the forehand, it seemed to just be begging to be broken down. Sometimes when you feel that you can hit all the shots to anywhere on the court, you eschew the obvious, which in Gulbis' case would have bee to attack that ghastly forehand over and over and over again.

Easy to say from the cheap seats, but...

[sirfredperry]

So what was this bloke Thiem, with his single-handed backhand, like, then? It appears he gave Murray a very good match

[banbrotam]

So what was this bloke Thiem, with his single-handed backhand, like, then? It appears he gave Murray a very good match

Very very good

The first player, since Murray and Nole that I've seen who can play every shot with power and finesse. What I liked is how he hung onto Murray's coat tails rather than fading or giving up

Looks mentally tough

Put it this way if you put a gun to my head and asked me to predict the next slam winner who is under 23 - he would be it, after Dimitrov

Some may say, haven't we seen this with others like Rosol? The answer is no as this guy has something a bit special, i.e. varied pace

Andy looked a bit rusty, but I think it was the usual poor play against a player he doesn't know

[banbrotam]

See this article on the young Austrian

Interesting that he's obviously had 'growing up' issues. I wonder if this is now commonplace? i.e. we will see no more teenage slam winners, simply because they can't get to the physical level needed at that age

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/02/7/Emirates-ATP-Star-Of-Tomorrow-Thiem.aspx

[sirfredperry]

Well, the more new, young faces on the tour, the merrier. Anyone worked out the average age of the top 100? It seems to get a little higher every year. The last teenager winner of a tournament was Cilic in 2008, for Pete's sake.
Seems to big breakthroughs for most players are now going to come in their early 20s rather than their teens.

[MMT1]

So what was this bloke Thiem, with his single-handed backhand, like, then? It appears he gave Murray a very good match

Very talented - good hands, good movement, but not particularly quick, and a nice sixth sense of when to hit drop shots, when to come forward, when to defend, when to inject pace, etc. A very nice suite of skills. I will say that I think his backhand is better than his forehand, which is loopy and seems prone to being overcome with pace and placement. His backhand is actually very flat, which helps him take balls on the rise, but I just wonder how sustainable it is under pressure. He's only about 6'0", maybe 6'1", and his first serve can have a lot of pace on it, the second serve is a liability, and he lacks variety accuracy.

All of his technical issues can be addressed, but they need to be, because the better players will figure out what he's susceptible to and ruthlessly attack that as he spends more time at the ATP level. But the variety and the hands can't be taught and that's a big plus on his upside.

[banbrotam]

I actually thought his speed was the remarkable thing about him. Indeed I don't know who's quicker on the tour

If he's "not particularly quick" goodness knows what it says about the likes of Berdych etc

[Danny_1982]

I agree banbro, I thought he was fast too. Got to a lot of things I didn't expect him to. He has pace, he has power and mobility. He has nice touch too.won a fair few cat and mouse points, not easy against Andy. Superb on the front foot, swung wildly on the back foot a few times and made errors. Off both wings.

When he defended with percentage shots I thought he looked a very good defender. He has the raw tools and the physical potential to be a good player. Need to see him play a few times before saying anymore than that really.

[The Special Juan]

Cilic with an early break in the match v Murray. This should be a good 'un because I think they're both about the same level at this moment in time, with Murray's lack of fitness and Cilic's current excellent form.

[The Special Juan]

First set to Cilic, the early break being the difference.

[Danny_1982]

Good match this. Cilic looks confident and is serving absolutely brilliantly. Murray moving well the day after a long match, which is good to see.

[The Special Juan]

Cilic breaks in the 2nd. Is that that?

[The Special Juan]

I didn't realise Gulbis beat DelPo this afternoon. The door's open for Berdych now.

[The Special Juan]

Cilic wins fairly easily in the end. He had two massive service holds late in the 2nd, especially from 0-40 down.

[Silver]

Good wins for Gulbis and Cilic. Good call by TSJ earlier in the thread regarding the fitness of the top 2, looks like they may not have been too sharp this tournament.

[Danny_1982]

Another ok week for Murray. He's getting there. Cilic played very well yesterday. Served great, was aggressive. Murray's movement was pretty good and his timing a little better. He created some chances to come back into it but just didn't take them.

What is it they say in tennis, for every month out it takes 2 to get back to your best.(Unless you're a freak like Rafa). By that reckoning we won't see Murray at his best until the grass. I think it will be quicker than that to be honest.

[The Special Juan]

Berdych is an early break up v Gulbis. I get the feeling that could either be a brilliant match full of great winners or a boring UE fest.

[The Special Juan]

Berdych wins easily, 3 & 2.

@Silver thanks!!  Probably my first prediction that's ever gone right.

[Born Slippy]

Murray will be down to number 7 if Berdy wins tomorrow.

[The Special Juan]

Berdy wins the title fairly easily against Cilic who may have been feeling the pace after successive finals. It's his 9th ATP title in all. Could this be a big year for the big Czech?

[Gerry SA]

David Ferrer snapped a 7 final losing streak to retain his Buenos Aires title. He beat Fabio Fognini 6/4 6/3. 

It was Ferrer's 21st career title. 

Both are scheduled to meet in the semis in Rio next week...maybe Fognini can gain his revenge. A certain R.Nadal is also in the field, looking to close further on Vilas' 46 clay court titles(Nadal 42)

[banbrotam]

Could this be a big year for the big Czech?

No. Nothing's changed. Basically Berdy wins when the others i.e. the Big 4, are distracted

When he starts battering them with sheer quality of Tennis, like Stan has done - then he'll warrant our attention

[The Special Juan]

Could this be a big year for the big Czech?

No. Nothing's changed. Basically Berdy wins when the others i.e. the Big 4, are distracted

When he starts battering them with sheer quality of Tennis, like Stan has done - then he'll warrant our attention

Well you never know. A surge of good form could lead to a good year and it's got to start somewhere. Still, for what it's worth, I agree with you. He'll be in the hunt for number 4 in the world at the end of the year though.

[banbrotam]

I don't see it. Granted I think he'd now beat Roger and often beats Andy, but I just don't think he is mentally tough enough to then beat the Top 3, say twice

We can see how he is mentally as he's really refused to alter his game. It's just Plan A, which is an excellent plan against most if not all. But in all sports you need a Plan B and he ain't got one

[sirfredperry]

Even at this early stage it looks as if the battle for the year-end top 8 will be intense. Stan is pretty much guaranteed a place and you would have to reckon Rafa and Djoko are certainties.
For those who reckon that Fed won't make it, it should be pointed out that he's already defended the biggest crop of points - 720 from an AO semi final - that he secured in any tournament in 2013.
Of those who made it last year, Gasquet is probably at most risk. Delpo fans could be made to worry if his wrist is not 100%.
Newcomers to the top 8? Dimitrov?

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