OWGR week 10 - #1 spot is "in play"

For the first time this year, the OWGR #1 spot is in play this week, but only for Tiger Woods and Adam Scott.

The quick "back of the napkin" base scenarios are:

Adam Scott can take #1 with a win while Tiger Woods finishes no better than 5th.  A 2nd place finish is not enough for Adam regardless Woods makes the start or not... or where he might finish. (points go through 60th place)

Henrik Stenson can not take #1, but he can pass Adam Scott for #2 with a win and Adam Scott finishing in a 2-way tie for 2nd or worse regardless of how Scott finishes.  (EDIT(s):  I missed the divisor number (42 instead of 41) on Adam Scott in my original post thus the strikeout and change)

More to come later...  The above are based on depreciation averages and should be "solid"... but I'll have the exact confirmation later in the week...

The usual high number of withdrawals from "Puerto Rico" - if it doesn't need the "subsidy" to provide the winner with 24 points it's probably because of the E.T. Tourists.

robo,
I mentioned after Round 1 of the MatchPlay that Dubuisson could be Europe's Spieth - watch out for Emiliano Grillo this week. He may not break through this week, but he'll be a big winner soon! Big chance for Max Homa this week also.

kwinigolfer wrote:
robo,
I mentioned after Round 1 of the MatchPlay that Dubuisson could be Europe's Spieth - watch out for Emiliano Grillo this week. He may not break through this week, but he'll be a big winner soon! Big chance for Max Homa this week also.

I didn't see your Dubuisson comment the other week, but if I had, I would have agreed completely.  I see no glaring weaknesses in his game.... and I like his demeanor.  Granted, I'll bet his little "ducks feet" are peddling underwater just as hard as anybody... but he's not showing it.  Haven't really followed Grillo closely... but I'm paying attention. Not feeling it for Homa yet though...

kwinigolfer wrote:The usual high number of withdrawals from "Puerto Rico" - if it doesn't need the "subsidy" to provide the winner with 24 points it's probably because of the E.T. Tourists.

I haven't been through the field in detail... but at quick glance it looks WAY below the 91 points it would need to be a "legitimate' 24 level event.  (maybe halfway there?  at most? )

OWGR is listing WGC at SoF 805 (level 76)
Puerto is low, SoF 32.

Last year it was 765 and 48
Two years ago, it was 816 and 24
Three years ago it was 763 and 22

Sounds like a good chance Oosthuizen won't be able to go this week... if that's the case I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the obligatory one shot on Thursday before he makes the WD.  Oosty would still be paid last place money (unofficial), and the start would count against his PGAT minimum of 15.... but no FE or OWGR points.

Many made it sound yesterday like Tiger is expected to make the start, but this morning... maybe not so much. If he WD's prior to teeing off Thursday, the event drops to a level 74 (regardless of what Oosty might do)  

No word on Matsuyama one way or the other from what I've seen, but I did see a snippet yesterday that at least he's there.  If Hideki can't go, I don't see where hitting the one shot necessarily helps him... he's pretty sure to get his 15 starts in anyway.   A no-start from Hideki (with or apart from Oosty) would not affect the 76 or 74 rating.

WGC Event Rating Values

802 = With all players (727+75)... level 76
780 = Without Matsuyama (-12), Oosthuizen (-10)... level 76
749 = Without Tiger (-53)... level 74
727 = Without Tiger, Hideki, Oosty... level 74 (with 6 ERV to spare)

They should group the three crocks together: Matsuyama, Oosthuizen, Woods.
Woods has still won twice as many events as he has withdrawn from the past four years, despite w/d'ing at a 7% clip.

Updated OWGR Scenarios for the WGC Cadillac

#1 Tiger Woods  - retains #1 with a 5th place finish or better
#2 Adam Scott -  can take #1 spot with a win and Woods finish outside the top-5
#3 Henrik Stenson - can move to #2 with a win, regardless of Scotts finish
#4 Jason Day - can move as high as #2 with a win
#5 Mickelson, #6 McIlroy, #7 Rose, #8 Zach, #9 Sergio, #10 DJ, #11 Kuchar or #12 Spieth could move as high as #4 with a win
#13 Stricker could move as high as  #5 with a win.
#14 Bubba Watson could move as high as #6 with a win.
#15 McDowell, #16 Schwartzel, or #18 Poulter could move as high as #8 with a win.
#17 Dufner could move as high as #9 with a win.
#19 Snedeker, #20 Furyk,  #22 Matsuyama or #23 Dubuisson could move as high as #10 with a win.

No other players can gain top-10 with a win.

Robo: Saw your edit in the opening post.

There is no divisor change in Adam's resume.

Adam is losing 2012 Cadillac and gaining 2014 Cadillac this week.

GPB wrote:Robo:  Saw your edit in the opening post.

There is no divisor change in Adam's resume.

Adam is losing 2012 Cadillac and gaining 2014 Cadillac this week.

And I thought the same thing... but the OWGR folks are adding 1 for this week... and the projections of TW needing a top-5 or better (actually 3-way T5) to retain #1 are being repeated elsewhere (including PD)... so I dunno... I haven't had a chance to go through it in detail to figure out the discrepancy yet. By the way... check your mail.

I don't know how Adam can be adding a tournament to his divisor and Tiger not be adding one.

GPB wrote:I don't know how Adam can be adding a tournament to his divisor and Tiger not be adding one.

It's the Steve Williams-factor.

I just went to the OWGR individual player pages and did a quick count of events for Tiger and Adam...

On Tiger's current ledger he has 40 events... He will drop 2012 Cadillac and add 2014 Cadillac for 40 events...

On Adam's current ledger he has 42 events... He will drop 2012 Cadillac and add 2014 Cadillac for 42 events...

In my initial projections... i was using the OWGR internal data which showed 41 events for Adam... not the 42 he actually has... but on the public website the 42 shows correctly... So actually it wasn't a "divisor change" in fact so much... it was a divisor change for me as i was using the wrong divisor.

The projections (as edited) in my initial post... and in my update are using the correct 42 divisor for Adam Scott.

I guess part of the confusion is Adam's schedule this year which he has skipped all the 2014 tournaments he played in 2012 and played in 2014 tournaments that he didn't play in 2012.

Added: Hyundai, Sony, Honda
Skipped: Los Angeles and Accenture.

robo,
Has golfchannel.com outed you?

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
Has golfchannel.com outed you?

Ummm... I dunno... have they?

EDIT:  Oh,THAT... LOL... but no... :-)

Ah ha! Just a coincidence then?!!

Jason Day is a DNS.

kwinigolfer wrote:Jason Day is a DNS.

Field remains a 76 without Day (by 5 rating values) - Tough luck for Jason... reported thumb injury....

Thumb injury??? WTF has do done, chopped it off? That's got to be right up there with toothache

What's this amazement that a thumb injury might mean someone can't swing a golf club?? You hold it in your hands after all and belt a ball with it. I can imagine any number of ways a thumb injury would mean you can't grip a club properly, let alone swing one.

Toothache on the other hand...

navyblueshorts wrote:What's this amazement that a thumb injury might mean someone can't swing a golf club?? You hold it in your hands after all and belt a ball with it. I can imagine any number of ways a thumb injury would mean you can't grip a club properly, let alone swing one.

Toothache on the other hand...

Spot on, I'm not surprised he pulled out with a thumb injury. Would be quite difficult to play with that.

What is a golfer doing to get a thumb injury?

What does anyone do to get thumb injury?

Carpentry work?
Slamming the car door on your hand?

Sure I've heard that the vast majority of hospital-treated thumb injuries are RSI-related. In which case I can see quite a lot of sense in golfers succumbing to them.

I injured my thumb today deep cut in left thumbprint. No golf for the foreseeable   

#1 spot is no longer "in play"

incontinentia wrote:I injured my thumb today :(deep cut in left thumbprint. No golf for the foreseeable   

Can I recommend one of these: http://www.amazon.co.uk/HANDY-PEEL-VEGETABLE-POTATO-PEELER/dp/B00560FR84

Very safe, and no chance of an injury.

 

Congratz to Winners this Week

Patrick Reed in Miami (up to 20th)
Chesson Hadley in Puerto Rico (up to 63rd)
Jake Roos in Kenya on the Challenge Tour (approx 226th)
Adam Hadwin in Chile on the Web-com tour (approx 335th)

The top 100 should look like this

1 Tiger Woods 9.916
2 Adam Scott 8.486
3 Henrik Stenson 8.341
4 Jason Day 6.942
5 Phil Mickelson 6.504
6 Rory McIlroy 6.316
7 Justin Rose 6.226
8 Dustin Johnson 6.055
9 Zach Johnson 5.993
10 Sergio Garcia 5.925
11 Matt Kuchar 5.627
12 Bubba Watson 5.492
13 Jordan Spieth 5.263
14 Steve Stricker 4.809
15 Graeme McDowell 4.792
16 Charl Schwartzel 4.639
17 Jason Dufner 4.597
18 Ian Poulter 4.413
19 Brandt Snedeker 4.294
20 Patrick Reed 4.151
21 Webb Simpson 4.142
22 Hideki Matsuyama 4.094
23 Jim Furyk 4.063
24 Jimmy Walker 4.004
25 Luke Donald 3.967
26 Victor Dubuisson 3.950
27 Jamie Donaldson 3.886
28 Keegan Bradley 3.877
29 Thomas Bjorn 3.776
30 Graham Delaet 3.443
31 Bill Haas 3.405
32 Hunter Mahan 3.359
33 Ernie Els 3.277
34 Louis Oosthuizen 3.188
35 Ryan Moore 3.181
36 Lee Westwood 3.075
37 Stephen Gallacher 2.994 NQ
38 Harris English 2.898
39 Rickie Fowler 2.809
40 Miguel A Jimenez 2.769
41 Nick Watney 2.754
42 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.734
43 Kevin Streelman 2.648
44 Joost Luiten 2.645
45 Billy Horschel 2.600
46 Thongchai Jaidee 2.550
47 Russell Henley 2.531
48 Chris Kirk 2.504
49 Jonas Blixt 2.485
50 Francesco Molinari 2.427
=================== Masters Bubble Point
51 Matteo Manassero 2.413 -Q
52 Richard Sterne 2.399
53 Gary Woodland 2.361 -Q
54 Branden Grace 2.352 -Q
55 Martin Kaymer 2.323 -Q
56 George Coetzee 2.299
57 Kevin Stadler 2.286 -Q
58 Scott Stallings 2.265 -Q
59 David Lynn 2.236 -Q
60 Ryan Palmer 2.217
61 Pablo Larrazabal 2.217
62 Mikko Ilonen 2.190
63 Chesson Hadley 2.147
64 Thorbjorn Olesen 2.111 -Q
65 Boo Weekley 2.079 - Q
66 Bernd Wiesberger 2.056
67 Peter Hanson 2.036 -Q
68 Marc Leishman 2.036
69 Ross Fisher 1.993
70 Brooks Koepka 1.903
71 Scott Piercy 1.902 - Q
72 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.900
73 Peter Uihlein 1.896
74 Brendon de Jonge 1.837
75 Kim Hyung-sung 1.804
76 Charles Howell-III 1.774
77 Angel Cabrera 1.770 -Q
78 Chris Stroud 1.736
79 Roberto Castro 1.711 -Q
80 D.A. Points 1.703 -Q
81 Koumei Oda 1.693
82 Thomas Aiken 1.681
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.676
84 Chris Wood 1.640
85 Bo Van Pelt 1.612
86 Charley Hoffman 1.611
87 Paul Casey 1.596
88 Brett Rumford 1.590
89 K.J. Choi 1.588
90 Michael Thompson 1.581
91 Matthew Jones 1.556
92 Shingo Katayama 1.544
93 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.539
94 Martin Laird 1.533
95 Darren Fichardt 1.504
96 Tommy Fleetwood 1.484
97 Matthew Every 1.476
98 Luke Guthrie 1.465
99 Anirban Lahiri 1.443
100 Pat Perez 1.440
==================
101 Tim Clark 1.438
102 David Lingmerth 1.438
103 John Merrick 1.433


Stephen Gallacher is the only player in the top 50 who is not yet qualified for the Masters.  He should have clinched his spot in the top 50 this week.

Players in the top 100 who have qualified for the Masters have have been noted with a "-Q".

Good stuff GPB.

I think one of the "Q"'s, Piercy, will be a Masters no-show.
Sterne needs another good finish - wonder if he'll play Innisbrook?

Good to see Adam Hadwin had a win, he's been so close for so long yet so far.

Am guessing that Stephen Gallacher leapfrogs into the Ryder Cup World Points qualifying places, perhaps kicking Justin Rose down a couple of slots, and pushing Donald, Kaymer and Westwood further in arrears.

Patrick (top five) Reed reaches the US Team's top five, kicking Ryan Moore off, but none of the better known Americans made up much ground with half of the most recent core of the Team still a win or more adrift.

Top 10's in WGC's do not get a non-member into the next PGATour event.

Sterne is not in the Valspar, and would need an 11th hour Sponsors invite to get in.

Five players were in the top 10 in Puerto Rico that are not in the Valspar field.


Danny Lee, Wes Roach, Ben Martin, Jason Gore, Ricky Barnes.

Trevor Immelman (10th of the Web-com priority list) was the first alternate going into the week. I am sure all those 5 top 10's in PR knocked him down a peg or two on the totem pole.

And my guess the reason why top 10's in WGC don't count is because of the limited field. Literally 25% of the field in the Match Play get top 10s.

I get the impression from Patrick Reed that he really doesn't rate many of the world's top golfers apart from the "legendary" TW.

The way he listed out his achievements was pretty nausiating.

IMO, he's in a false OGWR position at present, as a lot of players find themselves after a big win. Maintaining it will be hard. Personally, i don't see him being a regular Top 50 player but i could, of course be wrong.

Good luck to him.........