Frampton vs Santa Cruz; my breakdown / prediction, and yours

Afternoon lads.

Appreciate that the board will be in Groves-Froch II meltdown over the next few weeks, but I want to make sure we're not overlooking another superb fight which, all being well, we'll hopefully be seeing in late summer 2014.

Dangerous to tempt fate, I know, but Carl Frampton should have enough to get past Hugo Cazares in Belfast next month, which sets up a mandated fight between Frampton and WBC Super-Bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz; a fight which Santa Cruz has confirmed he's really looking forward to, and would even travel to Belfast for if the money is right (rumour has it that an offer of £500,000 will make absolutely sure of that, but let's wait and see on that front!).

How do we see that fight going? For, it's one of the best fights to be made this year, and a real pick 'em. Santa Cruz's consistency and experience at world title level will make him favourite with the bookies, but in terms of styles, I reckon these two are matched just about as evenly as it gets.

Let's take Frampton first. The more adaptable and versatile fighter, for me. He took on a pressure fighter of a similar-ish ilk to Santa Cruz in the shape of Kiko Martinez last year and boxed him going away, using footwork and movement before stopping him in the ninth to win the European title (Martinez has since won the IBF world title). Fast forward to Frampton's defence of his European crown against Jeremy Parodi and you can see Frampton utilising a totally different style and game plan; being the aggressor, holding the centre of the ring and applying subtle pressure of his own at mid distance before upping the temp and taking Parodi apart with body shots.

He's got genuine power - he's the only man to have stopped Martinez, and did so with a single shot, which came a little out of the blue going on how the previous couple of rounds of that fight had gone. Like his manager / mentor Barry McGuigan, he can really dig the body, as shown against Parodi. I believe he has the edge over Santa Cruz when it comes to genuine knockout power, albeit he's no Wilfredo Gomez.

He's also a much better defensive fighter than Santa Cruz. He has the foot speed and nimble moves to box going away and evade shots, as well as good reflexes and nice upper body / head movement - again, I'll direct anyone who hasn't seen it to the Parodi fight. In that one, Frampton was right in front of Parodi for the most part and yet still hardly took a clean punch all night, anticipating Parodi's every move and slipping most of the shots coming his way perfectly. He was stopped a couple of times in the amateurs, I believe, and Martinez jarred him two or three times with good shots, but in general his chin looks reliable.

Now over to Santa Cruz.

This guys has a touch of the Broner (before he jumped to Welter) about him in terms of how he physically dominates many of his opponents - he just seems impossible to push back or make a dent in, from what I've seen. Looking at a couple of his recent fights (Mijares at the weekend, Terrazas a few months before that), it's notable that he basically never had to take a backwards step against either of them.

He's not as versatile as Frampton, but he is very good at what he does. He has outstanding stamina, particularly when you consider that he throws a hell of a lot of punches in every single round - just doesn't give an opponent any time to rest or settle. Despite his one-track style, he does also have very good hand speed and reels off flashy, accurate combinations at a rapid rate, too. What's particularly impressive about his speedy attacks is his ability to switch between the head and body at a high temp (as it goes, Frampton can also do this as well). He doesn't have that big-time, chilling punch (as I said, I'd put him behind Frampton in this category), but he is very aggressive with what he does throw, and his accumulative power has usually been enough to either break his opponents down slowly, or force them in to survival mode. As an inside fighter, I think he edges Frampton.

The down sides are that he's there to be hit, and relies on his chin and ability to walk through shots in order to get his own off. Take a look at either one of the fights I've mentioned - he just doesn't move his head! He keeps a high guard but the fact that he's always coming forward in that straight line means that he's open to all kinds of shots, and he regularly takes them. Also, while his footwork is efficient enough, it's not all that quick and it's very repetitive. If you move, he'll shuffle after you. An elite-level fighter with a great jab and who has the ability to step around shots to create angles to counter should have plenty of success against Santa Cruz, which is why I'm sure Santa Cruz is glad that Rigondeaux boxes on another network under a different promotional banner!

Taking this all in to account, there seem to be a few areas which won't make much of a difference to the fight, even if one man does have the edge. Frampton's slightly more impressive power, I think, is cancelled out by Santa Cruz's chin looking that little bit more fortified. Personally, I don't anticipate a knockout / stoppage either way, unless it's via cuts, swelling etc. Given that he moves his feet quicker, Frampton maybe has an overall edge in speed and athleticism, but for hand speed they're pretty evenly matched. Santa Cruz has height and also a considerable reach advantage on paper here, but given their styles, I don't think those measurements will shape the outcome too much. Besides, both men have recorded in-ring weights at about 131 / 132 lb in recent fights.

The areas which could and should make the key differences, in my mind, are Frampton's footwork and defence against Santa Cruz's stamina and inside strength. These are the areas where the edges, regardless of who they go to, are a little more decisive.

A fighter as fleet-footed as Frampton, with his better body movement and reflexes, should be able to outbox Santa Cruz, really. I thought he showed great footwork against Martinez and showed how to deal with a pressure fighter (for the most part, which we'll get to in a second), the only caveats being that, instead of simple back-tracking, he could have done with a little bit more side to side movement on his toes and a more accurate jab. And in fairness to him, while he didn't need that much foot movement against Parodi, the jab had come on leaps and bounds - he should be able to pepper Santa Cruz with that shot as he moves.

That's why, I believe, Frampton will be well on top against Santa Cruz after seven, eight rounds or so. I don't think Santa Cruz can outbox Frampton, so to speak. I do, however, think there's a distinct possibility that he can simply outlast and outwork him.

Frampton wasn't running on fumes against Martinez by the 9th round, but the task of having to move and defend so much against an on-rushing pressure fighter who operated at pace was just beginning to tell a little, in my opinion. He was having to engage on the inside a little more than he'd been doing in the early rounds and wasn't controlling distance as well as he had been. Then, suddenly, he found the pay off punch. Now let me stress, Frampton was still appreciably ahead in the fight, and it definitely wasn't a panic stations moment. But not many Super-Bantams can attack with as much sustained industry and intensity as Martinez can. Unfortunately for Frampton, Santa Cruz is one of them. Very encouraging that Frampton found that peach of a shot to end the fight, but at the highest level those kind of shots won't come all that often, and it'd take one hell of a punch to totally derail Santa Cruz like that.

On the occasions that Martinez did get inside on Frampton, Carl took quite a few shots and didn't look the stronger man for the most part. In my opinion, there's a chance that Frampton could tired and be forced to run out of gas down the stretch in this fight. On the other hand, I can't quite see that happening with Santa Cruz. I think the late rounds will favour the champion and I can see him hurting Frampton towards the end of the fight and looking in the ascendancy when the final bell goes, if it goes the distance as I expect it to.

Frampton, as a boxer, holds the significant advantages here, but rather than skills it might be natural physical attributes which play just a bit a part.

It's close, and now it's gun to the head time. For me, Frampton SHOULD win this fight - I really do believe that. I think he'll show Santa Cruz a clean pair of heels early on, land his jab with regularity and be able to stay out of harms way; he has that ability to move back while still initiating the punching exchanges, afterall. Santa Cruz will come on strong in the late stages....But ever so slightly too late. I believe he's relying on a bit of good luck more than the Irishman is, but he won't quite get it here. Frampton should be in the shape of his life if / when the fight comes off, and he'll need to be.

In a fight of roughly two halves, I think Frampton holds on to take a very narrow decision in this fight. That's my long-winded take, what's yours?

Cheers fellas.

I agree.........I used to think Quigg had a good chance against Frampton but his last few showings have made me rethink.........

I think frampton vs Rig is a close fight...........Frampton has it all.........Can box on front and back foot, compact, packs a wallop and has good energy levels......

Frampton beats Cruz by late stoppage.. and once Riggy leaves (because Mcguigan will milk the King's hall for all it's worth with stiffs.....)

Frampton becomes top dog.......

Santa Cruz looked pretty open defensively on Saturday and an accurate fast puncher like Frampton would have plenty of targets. Santa Cruz though would no doubt use his offence as attack and I could see Frampton having problems with the onslaught. I think Frampton likes to fight as a control pace and then uses his attributes to pick a fighter apart.

It's a pick em fight for mr and I'd like to see it.

Excellent post Chris and great to see such a detailed breakdown on both sides rather than the usual "He is an over rated bum" blah blah blah.

I can't decide on a winner here just yet. I will have to be see how Frampton gets on next month and then will begin to muster my final outcome.

But after watching Santa Cruz at the weekend it is going to be a very tough night for Carl I think. Santa Cruz's workrate is unbelievable but as you said, so far he has been able to just plough forward and do as he pleases. The good thing here is with Frampton he has a guy who doesn't waste too many shots and the positive side of that is the shots he does throw are often very hard. So Can Santa Cruz stay focused when chasing a guy who can continue to catch you with strong counters on his way back, then if he switches off for one second then he finds himself being pressed back equally.

I like both fighters and if this really does come to Belfast then I'll have a guinness ready for you upon your arrival.

Also this fight will be a real scoop and could potentially do damage to the progress of Scott Quigg's reputation as "world champion".

When Rigondeux fought last time out, at the end of the broadcast on HBO they showed the 8 big names of Super bantam / Feather and Frampton was one of them alongside Donaire, Santa Cruz, Martinez....EVEN LOMENCHENKO!!!! Scott Quigg wasnt there so if Frampton was to beat Santa Cruz then he is going to become an even bigger name. He is obviously on the minds of the TV execs in thde US

This would be Frampton's big break with the fight hopefully going out on delay on a big PPV broadcast.

Frampton would love to get a US TV deal. Warren would be surplus.

Irish boy............If he's succesful America is a formality..........

We love the Irish..........My dear departed forebearers were from Cork.......

Just the English we hate...Like everybody else !!  

My Wife excepted...most of the time.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I agree.........I used to think Quigg had a good chance against Frampton but his last few showings have made me rethink.........

I think frampton vs Rig is a close fight...........Frampton has it all.........Can box on front and back foot, compact, packs a wallop and has good energy levels......

Frampton beats Cruz by late stoppage.. and once Riggy leaves (because Mcguigan will milk the King's hall for all it's worth with stiffs.....)

Frampton becomes top dog.......

Don't think Frampton will ever be fighting in the Kings Hall again considering he's selling out 10k in the Odyssey and the Kings Hall only holds about 3/4k

In Belfast......I imagine.....

The point stays the same.. change the venue.......

Yea agreed. Kudos for both Frampton and Santa Cruz for being so vocal and wanting the fight.

Would probably need Windsor Park/Ravenhill Rugby Ground or something over here to host it as the Odyssey sells out too quick and people are still looking for tickets.

Not sure this fight will happen TBH.

Leo keeps saying he wants it, but GBP want him to move up to featherweight and fight Abner Mares.

Either way if it did happen its a good fight to see who's the second best super bantamweight.

LSC's championship fight experience and work rate provably edge him a close UD/SD.

Rigondeaux beats both.

Thats funny Gerry, the last time this fight was discussed you said Frampton gets knocked out and that he was over rated.....

Reborn-DeeMcK-Reborn wrote:Thats funny Gerry, the last time this fight was discussed you said Frampton gets knocked out and that he was over rated.....

Opinions change...

Bit like the British weather...

Rigondeaux is getting very old for a 122 pounder........

Who is to say what might happen in six months or a years time....

His age isn't so bad at higher weights..

Reborn-DeeMcK-Reborn wrote:Yea agreed. Kudos for both Frampton and Santa Cruz for being so vocal and wanting the fight.

Would probably need Windsor Park/Ravenhill Rugby Ground or something over here to host it as the Odyssey sells out too quick and people are still looking for tickets.

What's the story with the crowd is it cross community? Even though I lived in Belfast and know it well I haven't been up to see Frampton.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Rigondeaux is getting very old for a 122 pounder........

Who is to say what might happen in six months or a years time....

His age isn't so bad at higher weights..

Rigondeaux hardly takes much punishment in any off his fights.

It's normally a clinic in picking apart his opponents.

Great analysis in the OP. Don't know a great deal about Santa Cruz but Frampton to me is the best, or potentially best Irish fighter I've seen - certainly is more rounded and complete than the likes of Dunne and McCullough, in terms of the former having no chin and the latter having no punch. In that respect its hard not to see him being a world champion, with the right fights, and even harder to see him losing in Belfast.

This sounds like a great fight and not the easiest option, as I think Frampton beats Quigg and Martinez (again).

Hopefully if we get these two we also get Quigg v Martinez and fight between the winners afterwards. Bit of a mouth watering prospect of fights.

Yeah, great OP. As a Belfast man I obviously want Frampton to win and will back him, the odyssey is a good fight venue. Your never too far from the ring and I have been to lots of fights there; as anyone who has been to one will tell you, there is no atmosphere like a Belfast fight night.

Where bouts in Belfast you from Terry? Are you one us or one of themuns?? Lol oj

Reborn-DeeMcK-Reborn wrote:Where bouts in Belfast you from Terry? Are you one us or one of themuns?? Lol oj

Sectarian joke there, D?

oj???? I dont get it?

Thought oj was a reference to orange juice and consequently Orangemen.

Bit like when someone's called a jaffer.

Lol no!!!

Well, iam from a mixed marriage and went to lagan college, first integrated school here. I trained in Breens gym years ago.
Anyway, attended lots of boxing, kickboxing and MMA fights here(anything for a live fight) but my heart is always with the noble art, and the feeling of the crowd here is something hard to beat. Frampton at the odyssey is always going to be great.