Indian Wells - 16th March - Singles Finals Day

First topic message reminder :

Stadium 1 Start 12:00 noon
[20] Flavia Pennetta (ITA)
v
[2] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
WTA


Not Before 2:00 pm
[7] Roger Federer (SUI)
v
[2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
ATP

chip and charge 1 from 2
not convinced

to be fair, it was an easy smash, i could have made that

Just not meant to be for Roger. Well played Djokovic

Well played Novak, congrats to his fans. Some good stuff in that final set!

Despite not being at his best this week, he still won. That bodes well for 2014. Good run for Federer too, bet he would've taken a final appearance before the tournament, with the draw that he had.

HM - you worry too much! Congrats   

Well good, good. Djoko was better for 2 sets, deserved it.

HM is the men

Congrats Nole.  All in all, a deserved win.

Djokovic was the better player today.

Roger is going to have to work on that return game of his.

It is still not good enough against the Rafas, Novaks and Murrays of this world

I really enjoyed it, it was a good match, my favourite of the season so far, then again, I've only properly watched about 5 so far

Get in there Novak!!!! Despite making such a low 1st serve percentage

Looked like being a blow out at the start but turned into a decent match.

A big result for Novak but nothing to worry about for Federer, who was mostly excellent.

did you see that, both played had the same number of winners and unforced errors

Federer 34-34
Djokovic 28-28

On outdoor courts, that is a good indicator of a good quality match. You usually only get more Ws than UEs on a fast surface, or if a lot of serve and volley is being played, or if the match standard is very good

Djokovic 0 Federer 2 (2006)
Djokovic 1 Federer 3 (2007)
Djokovic 1 Federer 2 (2008)
Djokovic 3 Federer 2 (2009)
Djokovic 1 Federer 4 (2010)
Djokovic 4 Federer 1 (2011)
Djokovic 3 Federer 2 (2012)
Djokovic 2 Federer 0 (2013)
Djokovic 1 Federer 1 (2014)
Djokovic 16 Federer 17 (TOTAL)

Djokovic 6 Federer 13 (2006-2010) 32%-68%
Djokovic 10 Federer 4 (2011-2014) 71%-29%
Djokovic 16 Federer 17 (TOTAL)

Post Davis Cup win, Djokovic’s edge over Federer is greater than Federer’s win % before then. I would say that Djokovic is favourite now to win out in this one by the end of their careers, unless Federer retires soon, or somehow miraculously avoids him or plays him mostly indoor (unlikely). A win today might have made the difference.

Slams
AO Djokovic 2 Federer 1
FO Djokovic 1 Federer 1
W Djokovic 0 Federer 1
US Djokovic 2 Federer 3

ALL Djokovic 5 Federer 6

It's an intriguing match up between federer and djokovic, so unpredictable. Some of the ball striking today was incredible. It felt like Novak served very poorly but stats suggest otherwise. The one thing I always notice about novaks service games is how often he goes 0-15 down. He needs to start focusing more from the first point, something federer and nadal have always been great at over the years.

Hopefully this win will spur Novak on, should boost his confidence beating an in form and confident federer. Roger has really upped his game this year, particularly his serve

All in all, a very encouraging week for Federer, looking in good shape and moving well.

And certainly a welcome confidence-booster of a win for Novak, even if he did only edge it on a TB.

Fed has started the year far better than probably he himself was expecting - not least in the context of what, by his own unique benchmark, was a fairly demoralising 2013.

It's now two whole years since Fed last beat Rafa (ironically here at IW when taking his 4th title). However -  setting Rafa aside (and we know there's only one of him), he remains more than a challenge for virtually everyone else on tour, and despite the many years he is giving away in most matches. He came from behind to beat Novak just the other week, and has split the last ten meetings with Murray ; the likes of Berdych and Tsonga still have much to fear from him ; and none of the 'young' new hopes have yet managed to trouble him consistently.

After 2013 I really am surprised by this strong start to the year ; perhaps still too early to call it a full-blooded resurgence, and the glory days are of course behind him. But ...... if he can maintain this sort of level, he should continue to make the second week of Slams -  and that in itself will be the motivation for him to play a reasonably full competitive season.

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm watching this game on an internet stream. A window keeps popping because apparently a girl in a bikini called Ana is trying to call me on "skypo".

Maybe I'll answer and see what she thinks about Novak's forehand.

That means your past internet viewing proclivities have lent themselves to such judgements, what have you been up to.

slashermcguirk wrote:Get in there Novak!!!! Despite making such a low 1st serve percentage

i have to say all credit to the Fed he played great, the new stick is really working for him and this was a high quality match that could go all the way. It seems the premature declarations of Novak's demise are a bit premature. Novak is the best returner in the world, and one thing about a good returner is that the more they see your serve the better and better they return it. Early in the match Novak couldn't get a look. But as the match wore on Djoko started to anticipate the serve and did it.

Henman Bill wrote:Djokovic 0 Federer 2 (2006)
Djokovic 1 Federer 3 (2007)
Djokovic 1 Federer 2 (2008)
Djokovic 3 Federer 2 (2009)
Djokovic 1 Federer 4 (2010)
Djokovic 4 Federer 1 (2011)
Djokovic 3 Federer 2 (2012)
Djokovic 2 Federer 0 (2013)
Djokovic 1 Federer 1 (2014)
Djokovic 16 Federer 17  (TOTAL)

HB to me this is why this has been the best of all the rivalries in the sport. I don't know if it is just Nadal's style or brilliance but the Djoko v Nadal, and fed v. Nadal despite all the great matches has never had the competiveness or the stylistic matchup this rivalry has. Great play by Roger, you know you are a great player when you can beat Federer 16 times on tour I don't care if he is a 105. This was a great match deserving of a matchup of these two players. I think Roger will have a great season this year and Novak will bounce back.

Well, it's the morning after the night before and I'm still not sure how I'd assess that match for Novak.

One the one hand, despite looking out of sorts for much of the week, he has won an important tournament, beating maybe the form player on tour in the final. That is impressive.

On the other hand, we again saw a slow start and he again failed to serve out. These are lingering problems that continue to be cause for concern.

Novak's mind remains a conundrum. What kind of personality is nervous enough to regularly choke serving for matches but tough enough to take that body blow and still find a way to win?

A word on Becker. The thought occurs to me that Novak has responded with real calm when he has messed up this week. He hasn't got emotional and annoyed with the crowd cheering for someone else. Even his celebrations at winning last night were calm and restrained. Maybe Becker deserves a little credit here. He was brought in to help Novak be tougher in big moments. This title, even though there were some horrible chokes along the way, was won more with grit and toughness than it was with good tennis. Big wobbles never turned into complete collapse like they did this time last year. Perhaps we are seeing some progress here.

It's been a great rivalry, for sure.

I am convinced that Novak will get stronger & stronger during the season, and I just don't buy all the recent doom & gloom comment - much of which could easily give the impression to the uninitiated that his game is somehow falling apart   

For Federer it's a case of just how sustainable this revival in form proves to be over the course of a full year -  and to what extent the accumulated mileage and Father Time takes its toll.

It's extremely rare for players to be still competing on the main tour whilst featuring regularly at the business end with something approaching 1000 career match wins already under the belt. Only two other precedents in modern tennis history : Lendl's longevity could feasibly be equalled and perhaps surpassed ; but the Connors' record is almost certainly safe.

HM Murdoch wrote:Well, it's the morning after the night before and I'm still not sure how I'd assess that match for Novak.

One the one hand, despite looking out of sorts for much of the week, he has won an important tournament, beating maybe the form player on tour in the final. That is impressive.

On the other hand, we again saw a slow start and he again failed to serve out. These are lingering problems that continue to be cause for concern.

Novak's mind remains a conundrum. What kind of personality is nervous enough to regularly choke serving for matches but tough enough to take that body blow and still find a way to win?

A word on Becker. The thought occurs to me that Novak has responded with real calm when he has messed up this week. He hasn't got emotional and annoyed with the crowd cheering for someone else. Even his celebrations at winning last night were calm and restrained. Maybe Becker deserves a little credit here. He was brought in to help Novak be tougher in big moments. This title, even though there were some horrible chokes along the way, was won more with grit and toughness than it was with good tennis. Big wobbles never turned into complete collapse like they did this time last year. Perhaps we are seeing some progress here.

Good analysis, I rarely saw Djokovic hit the high notes in this tournament. Losing sets to players who have no business winning more than a handful of games against him in a whole match. Dropping serve twice in a row when serving for the match to a player like Isner who honestly I think my granny could hold serve against him, to fail twice in a row at the asking is nerve racking. Doing the same thing against Fed and then bouncing back in the the Tiebreaker to take command. A very odd tournament win, I mean it is encouraging in that a well below par Djokovic is good enough to win this tournament but at the same time one can't deny that his form has been quite mediocre this season and that he benefited from a very nice draw.

I think you are overstating the extent to which Djoko chokes while serving for matches. He doesn't have a 140mph and there will always be opportunities. I don't remember him serving for the match and losing it in the really big matches, slams finals, how many of those have there been? You watch him more than me but I think the mental concentration is more of an issue for him than mental strength, eg playing the small points as well as the big.

HB, you're right, it's not regularly a choke as such but he is awful at serving out sets and matches. Often it will not be a pressure game i.e. he's a set to love or a double break up, so it points to a concentration failure rather than a loss of nerve.

(Although the two v Isner were horrible)

@HB... thanks for initiating this thread.