Nail your colours to the mast: Froch vs Groves 2 predicitons.

First topic message reminder :

Just over a week now to the big British rematch, how does everyone see this one going ? Your truthful offical prediction, you'll have no place to hide when you log on after the fight.

Whoever gets the correct outcome wins a grand, prizemoney to be donated by the Mods.

I see a tepid affair, much more strategic and cautious by both fighters, with Groves winning a comfortable decision something like 117-110. With a decider to happen in November.

Cheers Rodders

It's so repetitive I think the double post was quite ironic.

Groves to win on points providing the judges are not on Matchrooms payroll

Not sure if its just me being hopeful but for some reason I cant see Froch loosing.

I see him giving Groves much more respect, But see the fight going like last time. I think Groves will get the better of the first 6 rounds and once his Froch works the power off of Groves Shots I see him stopping him. 10th, 11th rnd Stoppage.

For me the way Groves may win it is boxing, in and out, on the back foot making Froch think twice about coming in, nicking rounds and winning a decision. But as of yet am not convinced he has it in the tank to do it for 12 rounds.

As Dangerous as he is he is not really a smooth operator, he is intense quick and stiff, hard hitting but he uses allot of energy fighting in the style he does, defensively and offensively.. All that power and speed is not free.

Hammersmith harrier wrote:It's so repetitive I think the double post was quite ironic.

Not as repetitive as you reading Boxrec and then pretending you know something about boxing.....

tunes666 wrote:Not sure if its just me being hopeful but for some reason I cant see Froch loosing.

I see him giving Groves much more respect, But see the fight going like last time. I think Groves will get the better of the first 6 rounds and once his Froch works the power off of Groves Shots I see him stopping him. 10th, 11th rnd Stoppage.

For me the way Groves may win it is boxing, in and out, on the back foot making Froch think twice about coming in, nicking rounds and winning a decision. But as of yet am not convinced he has it in the tank to do it for 12 rounds.  

As Dangerous as he is he is not really a smooth operator, he is intense quick and stiff, hard hitting but he uses allot of energy fighting in the style he does, defensively and offensively..  All that power and speed is not free.

Its just you being hopeful tunes  

Seriously, the scenario you portray is a distinct possibility, and  I agree with much of what you say. Considering its on the subject of froch groves, that may be a first!

Tunes, you make me look positively unbiased when it comes to Froch!

Anyone know where the weigh in is? Hoping it'll be at a Central london hotel so I can take time off from earning my six figure salary to go and watch.

Now GG has left Hearn it makes me want to see Froch knock him out even more and watch strongie go in to meltdown

Even if it was in Scotland couldn't you just fly up there in a private helicopter and take it in on your lunch break then fly back...what with your 6 figure salary and all

Izzi wrote: I can take time off from earning my six figure salary *

* calculated in pence

Sorry izzi, are you Lumberjack in disguise?

He hasn't blessed us with descriptions of his tall, muscular and powerful frame as of yet.

I await with baited breath...

Froch claiming he's hitting the same sort of training figures he was four years ago. Now if memory serves that would be around the time he fought Kessler...and lost.

Groves most likely wins if it's a boxing match, Froch most likely wins if it's a fight.

Froch will undoubtedly try to lure Groves in but if Groves can get his power shots off and get out of the way,he could have Froch looking silly but the slightest lapse in concentration will open the door for Froch.

First time round I suggested Groves take advantage of Froch's low left, hit him for nine and a half rounds with the overhand right them run...he nearly did it. So basically, more of the same George with a little less of a cavalier attitude but if you do get the chance to force the issue, grab it while you can.

Going with Groves by stoppage sometime sound the sixth, on the basis that Froch is in decline, and Groves is young, strong and fast enough to take advantage of this. The last fight showed that Groves is tougher than given credit for, and so Froch isn't going to KO him without landing a series of serious shots, and I think that's less likely this time around.

Loving the wide mix of predictions, here.

I've been leaning towards Groves by UD since the fight was announced, and nowt's swung me back just yet.

Interesting to see that so many think it was largely a case of Froch simply overlooking Groves last time out more than anything else. Not sure I really agree wholeheartedly; Froch admitted that his training results hit an absolute peak for the Bute fight which he hasn't hit again since, but if that means he wasn't training properly for Groves then it must mean he wasn't training properly for Mack and Kessler II, either.

Also not convinced that a man in anything less than tip-top physical shape and conditioned to the high heavens could possibly withstand the shellacking that Froch took and still not only be their in the ninth, but also still have the reserves and strength to be attacking and punching with considerable venom, either. So personally, I don't buy the idea that he'd slacked in training.

Where I do think there is some credibility in the idea that he wasn't 'right' going in to the fight would be with his mental approach, though, which can be just as important as the physical side of things. You can be fit as a fiddle and have had a great training camp, but if you haven't studied your opponent, pay no attention to what they're bringing to the table and go in there with the attitude that they can't be a threat, then you can still find yourself in a world of trouble.

Froch has to acknowledge now that Groves has faster hands, better reflexes and hits perhaps even harder than he does (offset by Froch's clearly superior chin and durability, providing the first bout hasn't caused them to erode) but even if he goes in there fully appreciative of the threat Groves carries, it doesn't change the fact that he still has to deal with them - and he couldn't really do it in the first fight.

We knew Groves had more speed and better legs going in to that first fight last November, sure, but being a better athlete than someone doesn't necessarily mean you've got their number in the ring. A few, in fairness, did predict that Groves' style would be a nightmare for Carl, but did anyone predict it'd be to such an extent? Rather than just being able to outbox Carl, Groves looked as if he could land whatever shot he wanted on him when he wanted, as well as looking like he could carry the fight to him, get him on the back foot and read what was coming from Froch, too.

I just think with all that in mind, there *should* be too much in Groves' favour for him to lose again. Appreciate that he was making mistakes towards the end of the last fight, but in theory if anyone can improve on what was displayed last November, it should be Groves. Froch can certainly re-focus himself and go in there a little more aware of what he's up against, but we've seen time and time again what troubles him and what weaknesses he has, and he's not going to shed them at this stage of his career, you'd feel. On the other hand, Groves is still essentially learning what it's all about at the very highest level and should be able to bank the experience of the first fight to learn from it and adapt a little. He's still young and fresh enough to do so, plus his all-round skill set means he's got more potential versatility in how he fights than Froch in any case.

I think it'll still be an enjoyable fight but I don't think it'll really come to the boil the way the first one did. Froch will probably be a bit cagier early doors and Groves may well think he is good enough to still outbox Carl and put rounds in the bank without having to really go after him the way he did in the first fight.

You can always find excuses for it, but I just can't shake how old and slow Froch looked last time out. He's still the hardest fella in the business and again I think he'll wow us with his toughness and resilience....But I think he might just be running out of steam and miraculous, gritty comebacks now. I think while Groves does let the red mist descent now and then, he'll just about be able to repel Froch enough to not make that a fatal issue and will run out a winner by 3 or so points on all cards.

But as I said at the top, the wide and varied predictions here all carry water and show how good a fight this is.

Great post Chris, pretty much what I said only much better!

I'm leaning towards Froch, but i believe it'll be better for British boxing if Groves wins.

I've rewatched the first fight twice and I can see where Groves had his moments and why Froch performed the way he did. Froch will be forced to defend with his left hand higher this time. If he doesn't it'll go the same way. Groves was feinting and the time it took for Froch to react with his hand that low was enough for Groves to land. It happened a few times and each time when Froch was hit he'd turn his body slightly to fight back, at that point Groves was gone or another right came through. It was all to do with Froch's defense in the first 3 rounds. He was sloppy and slow because he underestimated Groves' hunger and ability. Groves actually did something incredibly clever in the second and was range finding with a right cross while setting up left hooks for more work going inside. Landing 3/4 punches to Froch's one or two. The pace he set was relentless and it was a joke of a stoppage. I had Groves ahead by some way when it was stopped - he was clever and exploited Carls weaknesses perfectly.

If you watch Froch vs Bute, you can see his weaknesses there - Bute just wasn't hungry enough to actually work on him when he had a good shot land. It wasn't as impressive as all give credit for. go an watch it. Froch didn't show an incredible level of skill, his punches were just getting through. Its made him rely on his chin and power far too much. Against Kessler he was fighting someone who was pretty deteriorated from their first encounter. Froch II vs Kessler I gets knocked out for me.

Go back further and watch vs Abraham. This is the Carl Froch we need to see. He was jabbing efficiently and he was wary of Abrahams power. This meant he was coming forward and while on his toes, circling backwards when he was under attack. The left wasn't as low and he started strong. If we see that Froch - groves hasn't got a chance of getting past round 6/7. He'll be nullified and there won't be a hope in hell he's going to land.

Could age have had an effect on Carl though? Does he have an Abraham in the tank? For me - yes. He's not too old, he's got the skill in there, he needs to become wily and not stupid. I don;t think he's going to go in like he did in the first and assume he's going to deck him.

There's also the psychology of the fight. Groves is an annoying little turd now - Froch is seeing through the mind games, he didn't first time. Think that'll play into Froch's hands because Groves wanted the first round won before the bell sounded. Thats not happening this time and I think although he's shown himself to be exceptionally talented at exploiting the weaknesses - if they're not there he could come a cropper.

Froch TKO 8 if I was a betting man.

Great write up and analysis of grove-froch one.  I'd say any world level SMW rangey fighter could jab little king arthurs head off though, so I dont give Froch the credit that others do for that win. I just dont rate AA at SMW, he has a low output and is one dimensional, whereas groves is neither of those things.

I agree with everything else though.

I think you do Froch a disservice for the Bute and Kessler performances which were brilliant. He did exactly what he needed to against Bute, jump in with the punches putting him under the greatest pressure possible. Bute couldn't get set for that reason, there wasn't a great deal he could have done to stop the onslaught.

I think all jabby was saying is that they were great wins but frochs flaws were on show in those fights also, thats the way I read it at least.

@jabmachine agree re Bute. Froch didn't outclass him, he literally beat him up. Bute didn't have it in him to capitalise on the moments of success he had, and he had no answer for Froch's sheer strength & physicality. It was a beating, not a masterclass. The one significant thing to draw from that fight, though, is that Froch desperately needed that win - it was excrement or explode in terms of his career following the Ward loss, he was highly motivated, hungry and just would not be denied. I suspect after Groves I he'll be turning up at wembley in a similar state of mind, which should be concerning for Groves (were it not for his utterly unwavering self belief).

Also agree with 3fingers about AA. A banger at MW but not technically gifted or skilled, no great shakes at 168lb. He's there to be outboxed by a taller fitter faster guy like Froch. Good performance but I don't think it translates into Froch being able to outbox Groves as Groves is faster and technically superior to Froch. If Froch does win this fight he does it through his hardness, durability and sheer determination and brute strength.

I don't mean to say Froch didn't perform well at all in the Kessler II and Bute fights - not at all. In the Bute fight Sugar is right - it was a beating, but his weaknesses were there, his low hands caused him to be hit, psychologically he didn't have anything to deal with and Bute didn't have the hunger to really work him. Against Kessler it was more attrition from Froch than anything, I had that pretty close but applaud Froch for the performance. It'd be so much easier to watch him if he actually moved his feet and raised his left hand though - I don;t see any offensive benefit to standing with his feet perpendicular and hooking like he did against Bute. If he does that against a backfoot boxer like Groves he'll get turned inside out.

The best Froch we've seen yet was against Abraham. May not have been the most challenging opponent, but he was made to look slow and ordinary, something we know he's not. He may not make waves at SMW but to make him look like Froch did was spectacular.

The way he beat Bute up is a benefit, he wouldn't have done had he tried to work his way inside, he just jumped in hooking with both hands, he wasn't concerned with looking aesthetically pleasing. Seems a common trend now that unless you box like Mayweather you get berated, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

Attrition is what Froch does, that is he how he wins.

Attrition isn't how he wins, its how he looks sloppy and has boxers like Jermaine Taylor and Andre Ward make him look bad and he almost did against Groves. Jumping in hooking may be crowd pleasing but he can't be a one trick pony. Nice to have in his arsenal should the going get tough but if he boxes like his did against Abraham IMO he'd fare much better.

You seem to think he can metamorphisize into something he's not, it's nothing to do with pleasing the crowd, he's an attritional fighter who relies on his chin and stamina that's what he is. The Abraham performance was a flash in the pan that was down to the physical proportions of the two fighters.

Froch will play it tight I think. He jumps in like v bute, he risks a repeat of round 1 v groves. I don't think he outboxes groves if he does an Abraham though. I do think that his normal tactics are his best tactics for this fight. Keep it tight, turn up the pressure when the pace slows.

Keeping it tight is a relative thing with froch's low left hand, but still.

I watched the first fight again last night. I had groves well ahead, but without Jim watt getting so excited about how groves was doing, most of the rounds were clear but not landslides.

The stoppage doesn't get any better with time. Groves had some success in the 9th before getting caught. Just awful. The saad Mohammed thread had me thinking, what a journeyman record he'd have with Howard foster reffing.

I think we're in for a more circumspect beginning and it will heat up gradually as the fight goes on. The nearer we get to it the more I'm leaning to froch.

It looks like a slight majority fancy Froch to win,probably by late KO and that's the way I.m thinking too.Mind you Chris whose judgement I always respect is backing Groves. I think Froch will still be punching as hard in this fight and Groves won't be punching any harder so I'm sticking with J.B.W. and going for a late stoppage for Froch. Mind you I did pick Foreman to stop Ali so I'm not always right.

It's not just Froch's low left hand that is the problem- plenty of good defensive fighters carry their left hand low, but they tuck their chin behind their shoulder, and keep the right hand high. You can't do that though if you are standing too square on, which is what Froch tends to do, and I just don't see him ironing that out at this stage in his career, he will return to type and be open to Groves' right hand again. If Groves is smart and throws quick two and three punch combinations and then steps off to the side, then I can't see Carl catching up with him. The key for Groves will show restraint and not stay in front of Carl - if he finds him easy to hit the temptation will be to keep throwing punches instead of moving and denying Carl the chance to land his own shots.

It's like a philly shell without the philly or shell. Llike a hermit crab who's lost his house.

Had predicted and early stoppage for Groves but after watching the last couple of rounds of the first fight I'm starting to lean towards Froch stopping Groves late.... Froch looked really strong whereas Groves was f*cked at the end of the last fight.

It depends whether Froch can survive the early rounds where Groves will be teeing off on him. If he stands and trades he could get stopped.

Still think Groves has his number but just wondering if Frochs durability will be the key, especially after this stuff with the later weigh in.

In a way i think it could be easier for Groves if he does not have major success early but just uses his superior skills, speed and movement to outbox Froch in a no frills manner. He will expend far less energy and likely win a wide decision as i have seen nothing to suggest Froch has the skills to live with Groves or the power to take him out with one shot if it becomes a chess match rather than an attritional battle.
It should be noted Groves is a good tactician as he proved even when a novice against Degale and he can fight in several ways that could win this fight, Froch is limited pretty much to plodding after him and applying pressure in the hope he can wear him out before the final bell.

Indeed Hogey. I mentioned it earlier, people expected groves to fight like he did against degale in the first fight, and he surprised us. Could he revert to that strategy in this fight? I think it might be a smart move... Or at least to mix it up more. Energy conservation is probably key to his chances.

It's a fine line between doing too much and blowing out again and not doing enough and being walked down, if he fights too conservatively he won't gain Froch's respect and could find himself on the back foot. He has to keep a fair work rate to be the one pushing Froch back and not vice versa.

Personally don't think it matters in the long run as Groves in my opinion is going to get stopped sooner rather than later, his tactics will just delay the inevitable.

Rewatched the first fight last night and it was just great to be honest.

I had Groves winning by 3 going into the 9th round, so on my card, Froch had to win the remaining 4 rounds to get the nod....

First round knockdown was peach, but Frochwas STUPIDLY wild and came om flat in the exchange and got caught by a quick hard right hand.

He was then pretty much hammered all over the place apart from i think the 4th was a little more cautious and played out.

The 6th was a cracker. Groves hammered him with the kitchen sink, ring ropes, ring bell, turnbuckles...but yet Froch somewhow finished the round STRONGER with some solid shots that had Groves on the ropes and a bit weary.

The 7/8/9 rounds were pretty much Froch with relentless pressure and a granite chin. Got caught loads again but still came forward.

The 9th, having rewatched it, wasn't as bad as i thought first time.

Groves was hit by a short right on the inside and his legs went and dipped,was hanging on. Froch then jumped all over him punching him around the ring. When on the ropes trying to fire back, groves was hit by a thunderous right that dipped his legs and he slumped onto the ropes, followed by a left and right and left. Ref jumped in when his arms were slumped by his side. He then let Groves go, and stumbled back half way across the ring into the ropes.

Im picking Carl now after watching last night. I don't think he will be stupid enough to throw a wild combo early on and leave himself flat footed against a very quick powerful fighter. I think he probably loses the first 4 rounds having not been dropped, but think he eventually catches groves and either stops him late or wins a UD by around 2 rounds or so.

Groves pretty much knocked Froch out in the first round and froch was on unsteady legs up until the 4th or so. And he STILL couldn't put him away.

The only way Groves wins is if he gets a points win and does not engage like last time. Just outboxes similar to what he tried against de gale.

Or

Ftoch's chin has worn over night since the last fight and he gets stopped.

Either or, having seen the past couple interviews and having watched the fight....i sincerely hope Groves gets beat. Cant stand him. Ever since the build up to the first fight his attitude has completely don't a 180 turn. Very hypocritical and stupid kid who i have no time for.

Shame because he has bags of talent. I just don't think ill be following his career if he wins based on pathetic attitude. It worse than Floyd.

So you now think the stoppage was ok mm8? Gotta say, that's a one eyed description of the stoppage. Think tunes will agree with you though 

Don't think it was ok, but i don't think its as bad as even I first made out after it happened.

It was premature, but nowhere near as bad as what the media made out.

Hope we don't have it again, although if the fights as good, i wouldn't mind a third!

John Bloody Wayne wrote:Oh don't get me wrong milky I'm not saying he only went down because he was off balance, he was clearly rocked to his core. I'm saying it was the crossing of his feet that created the knockdown more than a more permanent trait such as the low left or slow starting.

He did cross his feet, this was something that Groves talked about repeatedly of the things that Froch did wrong. After the weigh in he talked about the mistakes Froch made and how he crossed his feet often, his footwork is quite poor generally and Groves was waiting for him to make such a mistake. The punch that lands at around 29 seconds before the end of the first round hurt Froch as well, Froch after taking that shot was straight on his bike. It's not like its the first time he's done that, in what was possibly his best ever performance he did the exact same thing against Bute. 'Cept Groves was preparing to punish him for it whereas Bute couldn't.

mobilemaster8 wrote:Don't think it was ok, but i don't think its as bad as even I first made out after it happened.

It was premature, but nowhere near as bad as what the media made out.

Hope we don't have it again, although if the fights as good, i wouldn't mind a third!

Funny I thought the same. Maybe the disappointment of seeing such a great fight stopped played a part for me first time but watching last night Groves looked in more trouble than I remembered. He should have taken a count and survived the round but it did look like he was out on his feet, whereas Froch looked really fresh considering the punishment he took in the first half of the fight.

Groves had a good start to the 9th, but there were signs he was starting rounds stronger and fading at the end of them. I wanted groves to win the first fight, so watched it again to see if I was seeing what i wanted to see. In my view it looked every bit as bad, he was still firing back. Terrible stoppage in any fight, and in the context of what went before just plain ducking awful.

Something else I also believe we are overlooking is the fact that Groves had a lot of managerial and trainer issues, going into the last fight, he didn't even have a trainer when it was signed.

They have had a lot more time to work together and without that distraction, I think we will see a better George Groves than we did last time.

I rewatched the fight and I can only give Froch the 5th and the 8th round, most of the others aren't really up for debate.

I would looov it...looov it...if Groves stopped the slimester Froch. Especially early on. It wont happen though and Groves will box his way to victory only to have it robbed away by Matchroom judges Beltran style

I want Froch to win their second fight.

I hope that his performance in the first fight was due to him taking Groves too lighly and not preparing properly for their fight. It be though, that Groves is just that good but I'll have my fingers crossed for Froch this weekend.

This is a very tough fight to call. Hmmmm...

Interesting that you've highlighted Froch's performance against Abraham, Jabby. How much of a turn up for the books would that be if Froch tried to win this weekend with a stick and move, safety-first tactic!?

Depends what you mean when you say that Froch needs to replicate his Abraham performance if he's to win, I guess; in terms of attitude and concentration, then yep, the Abraham fight was his best showing. Considering what was in front of him, he picked the right shots at the right time and also picked the ideal moments to attack and back Abraham up, and also when to retreat and get out of there. He'll need to be switched on like that on Saturday if he's going to come away with his belts again because as the first fight showed, only one man was in there with a game plan and it sure as hell wasn't Carl.

But in terms of the actual performance and how he went about taking Abraham apart, I'm not sure there's a great deal which can be linked between the scenarios.

I don't want to take anything away from what Carl did to Abraham, because he put on an excellent show. Somehow seemed to have a bit of extra speed he never had before or since and mixed up his shots to the head and body really nicely when he got the chance - some really nice, attractive combinations in there.

But I was a bit shocked at how uninterested and flat Abraham was. He did make it a bit easier for Froch than it should have been, truth be told, albeit Froch was boxing so well that night that no version of Abraham would have been able to turn the tables, I suspect.

Froch controlled the on-coming Abraham with his jab brilliantly, but the difference between how Abraham plodded after Carl and how Groves stalked him last November is huge. Abraham was giving Froch the constant green light to get off first because he was shuffling forward, straight up and not moving his head, with his gloves up at his temples and too close to his body to a) make Froch worried about letting his hands go, and b) have any chance of countering when Froch did unload, as he was just so defensive in his stance. He just never made the change or added anything all night.

Compare that to Groves in the first fight - knees bent, getting low and moving his head, getting on the front foot and keeping that left out as a range finder with his right always cocked and ready to go if he got the chance. He wasn't giving Froch a licence to pick out whatever shot he wanted (again I'll stress, Carl did pick them brilliantly) and was in a much better position to counter. Abraham just seemed to gamble on being able to land one haymaker late on.

He might have been the one going forward, but Abraham actually didn't initiate that many of the exchanges. He was on the march without really letting shots go whereas Groves kept probing with the jab or at least flicking it out to try and draw something from Froch.

The one thing that Froch could and should definitely take from the Abraham fight is some of the body shots he landed late on, mind you. He hurt Abraham badly a few times to the body and he needs to find a way to slow Groves down - body shots are the classic way to take someone's legs away from them. Groves was hurt to the body a couple of times against Sierra, I believe.

Froch hasn't got a chance of implementing that Abraham game plan, purely because his jab doesn't land and Groves Jab is superior to his. Groves was slipping that jab all night, I find that when Carl can't land the jab, he can't get going.

I said it to my friends in the first fight, if Froch can't land his jab, then he might be in a bit of trouble (I still picked Froch to win and win big). Groves easily won the jab exchanges and I don't except Saturday to be any different.

Froch isn't going to out box Groves, so he needs to bide he time and either wait for him to tire or catch him with something big.

The jab exchanges are interesting. Before the first fight Groves said two things: 1. He'd land two right hands, 2. He'd win the jab exchanges. I believed no1 due to how open Froch is, but I didn't believe 2, mainly because I knew Froch has a good jab and he also has a 3 inch reach advantage. But Groves owned the jab exchanges because his hands are so much faster & his timing was impeccable. It was those exchanges that put Froch out of sorts and allowed Groves to line up the right hand which gave him so much success.

Froch is capable of outboxing cruder boxers than himself such as AA, but technically he is a bit limited and is there to be outboxed if you have speed and good shot selection, Taylor proved this but Froch outlasted him, Dirrell gave him nightmares and we all know how ineffective Froch's style was against Ward. Groves is the superior boxer, he can outbox Froch for 8 straight rounds easy. Whether he wins the fight depends on whether he can withstand the inevitable Froch onslaught that comes late on, because while there may be questions about Groves ability to do the business over 12 rounds there is no question about Carl's, his durabilty and stamina are incredible and you just know that unless Groves hits him with a sledgehammer the likes of which we've not seen then Froch will be there at 10,11 & 12 swarming all over him. Groves is harder than most gave him credit for, but he's not as hard as Froch. I guess it's what makes this fight so exciting.

Excellent points well made Chris, I admit, I think you've pulled me up on the technicalities of the performance Abraham gave as opposed to Groves - but i still stand by the technique Froch employed that night as being the right way to approach Groves - using the jab defensively and to outrange Groves - lets not forget Froch has a freakish reach considering his size. You're right when you say about the shuffling and zero head movement - I think the idea from Abraham was to deflect Froch's winging hooks when they didn't materialise he was being forced backwards, Groves won't anticipate the winging hooks landing on his gloves as he's a back foot fighter - so Froch deciding to employ the same tactic of not winging the hooks and just straight up boxing instead of "man-mode" or "gladiator/trenches/warrior etc etc" then he'll find Groves on the back foot and although much more effective doing so than Abraham, we won't see this counter punching Groves who controlled not only the pace, but the range. He was forcing Froch to jump and leap forward meaning he couldn't land and then hooks failed - Groves waded in and landed at will.

If the left hand is raised, Groves won't be able to land the right cross to range find - I'm not saying its an infallible plan - but the low hands was far too easy for someone with Groves handspeed to exploit.

Good reply, Jabby.

Don't get me wrong, obviously I think Froch can do a better outside / range job than he did last time in the sense that he can probably stop Groves from outclassing him as he did for long periods, but I don't think it can be his whole plan for the full twelve, personally. I expect Froch to try and put in to practice quite a lot of what you've said in the first half of the fight or so, but I think he'll be doing that with a view to just staying with Groves for those opening stages before he reverts back to bullying / brawling mode once Groves has (hopefully in Froch's case) started to sag a little bit and drop his pace.

If Froch is down 5-3 in rounds after two thirds of the fight (I'm just working on the assumption that nobody gets taken out before that stage, but you never know) but had avoided getting knocked down or badly worked over in that time, using those tactics you've touched upon, I reckon he'd be quite happy with that. But I don't think he'd be trying to use that tactic down the stretch to make sure of the win. If Froch does try to keep it a pure boxing match, he can certainly make it competitive and avoid taking as much punishment as last time, but I don't think he can win outright.

If you're looking at what is THE single biggest thing Froch has got going for him when you match him up directly next to Groves, it's probably the fact that he's more durable and resilient. On that basis I think it'd be asking a lot for him to win without utilising what is his most valuable card in this fight. I think you're right insofar as Froch will try to keep it disciplined for a while but as the fight goes on, assuming he's still in there, we'll see him throwing caution to the wind, reverting to his usual gung-ho style and trying to take advantage of Groves' possible tiring or disheartening at not being able to get him out of there.

Good analysis of the potential tactics on Sky tonight by Bellew & Paul Smith, interesting & enjoyable to watch.

Groves to win on points.
Both fighters to go down at least once.

Groves on points for me. Groves showed in the 1st fight that he has the potential to outbox Froch & even stop him. Had that big punch come 10 - 15 seconds earlier we could very easily have had Groves ko Froch rd 1!

Groves proved to himself, Froch & world that he belonged at that level, this time round he is going to be more confident & better prepared and not make any of the same mistakes as last time. Froch won't have got any better & wont fight that much different than the last fight.

Carl doesn't get caught he wins.