French Open discussion thread

[Mad for Chelsea]

First topic message reminder :

I thought it was about time we got one of these started. While Federer surprisingly (cough cough) had the advantage of starting his campaign nice and early on day 1, Djokovic is currently in action against Sousa of Portugal. Also on at the moment we have everyone's favourite Briton... James Ward. He's been handed a tough draw against Tommy Robredo, but is battling hard, despite being a break down in the first.

We're also due our first major upset over on court 1, with Nishikori on his way out against Klizan. Injury issues? Finally we have Mahut vs Kukushkin in a pleasant match between two talented shot-makers. That one's at one set all, with the intriguing possibility of the winner meeting Isner in R2.

EDIT: in the time it took me to write this one, Ward has broken back, and is level at 3-3, well done that man .

[bogbrush]

If Novak makes the final, I wonder if he'd prefer to face Rafa or an ascendant Andy?

Rafa is clearly the better clay court player but I think Novak has more trouble with the stylistic match up with Andy.

I'd say there is surprisingly little in it.

This has merit. All those saying 62-1 Nadal are forgetting this isn't that guy. He's still mighty, but he's post-peak and beat-downs on nobodies prove little.

I really can't see how Djokovic loses to Nadal here, but he just could lose to Murray.

[CaledonianCraig]

Monfils is rubbish, Murray has no risk there. He will essentially let Monfils destroy himself.

Well it depends though. Stranger things have happened. We have already seen here at RG, Andy letting his guard slip momentarily V Kohli and Verdasco today and he nearly paid the price. If he starts slowly or chucks in a flimsy service game early doors and the French crowd are given hope then who knows? Andy must be on his toes and aggressive and he will prevail.

[TopoftheChops]

Murray and Monfils are very similar players, this will benefit andy a lot

[Danny_1982]

I'm as delighted as anyone with Murray's week, but I feel people are going a touch over the top. One swallow does not make a summer, and a few good days does not make Murray more likely to beat Novak on clay than Rafa.

If he reaches the semis against Rafa it will have been a tremendous tournament for Andy. And anything better than a 3 set defeat to Rafa on that court will be above my expectation.

Yes Rafa looks a touch vulnerable, and yes Andy looks better than normal on this surface... But in my opinion this tournament is still a 2 horse race. And neither horse is called Andy.

[Born Slippy]

Very impressive win from Andy. His last two matches probably rank in his top 5 wins on clay.Thought he would struggle today after the long Kohli match. Slight concern that he will now move to the slower PC court but if he carries on with the same mentality he has a great chance of another RG SF.

[naxroy]

well, nadal has his first serious match in quarters, and probably ferrer is the hardest rival he could get apart from djokovic

if nadal really has a back problem, I dont see much future for him in this tournament

[laverfan]

Murray played nicely (better than against Kohli).

Go Muguruza, Bouchard, Petkovic, Halep.

Gulbis-Berdych should be interesting.

[antonico]

I really can't see how Djokovic loses to Nadal here...

A lot of people said that last year too, especially after Djokovic scalped Nadal in straight sets taking the Monte Carlo title. Best of Five on clay is tougher for Djokovic against Nadal, especially when Nadal gets stingy with his errors. The lower Nadal keeps his error count the harder it is for Djokovic to keep hammering winners over a Best of Five set match, especially on clay. And it's even tough on a hard court. Last year's US Open Final was a case in point, where Nadal made a total of 20 Unforced in 4 sets. That's a meager 5 errors per set. I don't care who you are - it's virtually impossible beat somebody who's playing that cleanly for that long. For Djokovic to win, he's going to have to force Nadal into a lot more errors. If Nadal plans on playing his high octane error free game, then Djokovic will have to find a whole bunch of needles in the haystacks to pull the match out. It's possible, but the fact is Djokovic's margins for success are smaller at Roland Garros against Nadal; he's going to have to hit a lot of Winners, which is just harder to do on clay than a hard court, or grass. That's why in 5 matches here Djokovic has gotten only 3 total sets from Nadal.

What's been amazing about Djokovic here is that he's having a fair bit of trouble holding his own serve - dropping it 9 times so far - but has been saving himself with breaking his opponents with more urgency.

[bogbrush]

"If a Nadal plans on playing his high octane error free game". Don't they all?

Nadal will find it harder on clay because it allows Djokovic to keep the rallies longer, which benefits him over Nadal. Djokovic doesn't need to attack Nadal here, in fact that's the only way he can lose this. Obviously I don't mean hit no winners, but I mean take the rallies long, work the forehand over to expose the backhand, and Nadal will cough up the errors trying to hit more aggressively.

The key to beating Nadal has always been to be able to take the rallies longer than him. Federer - apart from the SHBH - always suffered because he was the one trying to hit the earlier winner and the risk / reward ratio was no good. Djokovic can reverse that position.

Djokovic didn't play well last year yet still should have won it; he won't be hitting the net any more for sure! Nadals best hope is a stunning Raonic / Berdych performance.

[kingraf]

Djokovic would thank the gods, titans, and oracles if he landed a clash vs anyone but Nadal in the Finals, I mean really? Nadals worst year on clay is still a masters title better than anything Murray has ever done on the surface. Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set. It's only been five years since he lost on Paris clay. Best of five is a different animal, that's why despite going on various streaks against Nadal, Djokovic only beat him in five setters during that year he seemed to walk on water.

[HM Murdock]

Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set.

True, but with the significant caveat that he has been facing opponents who are simply not capable of troubling him.

Ginepri, Thiem, Mayer and Lajovic are low ranked players, 3 of whom have SHBH. They are sitting ducks for Nadal. He can play with huge margins against these guys and still get the win.

That won't cut it against Ferrer, Murray or Djokovic.

[kingraf]

See Serena has committed to losing 10lbs. About time

[The Special Juan]

Djokovic would thank the gods, titans, and oracles if he landed a clash vs anyone but Nadal in the Finals, I mean really? Nadals worst year on clay is still a masters title better than anything Murray has ever done on the surface. Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set. It's only been five years since he lost on Paris clay. Best of five is a different animal, that's why despite going on various streaks against Nadal, Djokovic only beat him in five setters during that year he seemed to walk on water.

Hey, that's harsh on someone who's "absolute rubbish" on clayb

[kingraf]

Haha TSJ, think you'll find I've always backed Murray to succeed on the dirt, the only time I wavered in my belief was last year, which is understandable, I'd say.

Always had the tools, the movement, point development, control, return game, and on clay he can better protect his WTA second serve with his second shot.

Been a real mystery, his underachieving. Still not sure anyone would rather face Nadal than him though.

[Guest]

I think when you look at Murray's career, minus the dirt you would say had he adjusted his focus outside of the Slams he could've easily achieved more. It was only when under Lendl really that his horizon and ambition stretched beyond the Slams. His success has been sporadic and I feel had he been more switched on like a Federer, Nadal or Djokovic he could easily have more titles to his name then what he already has.

[Guest]

In terms of Andy on Clay, what has frustrated me is that when he plays defensively and takes all risk out of his game he is a sitting duck for any clay court specialist in the top 100. Andy if he wanted to can hit with power, not on the scale of a Berdych, Raonic or Del Potro, but still he can hit flat and find a decent length like he did against Verdasco yesterday. Clay is energy sapping and Andy doesn't have the luxury of the level of athleticism of a Nadal, Djokovic or even Ferrer and Andy's counter punching style will only get him so far in Clay tournaments before he comes up against an aggressive player. See aggression was paramount to Andy reaching the semi's at RG in 2011 and plus a favourable draw.

If we look past Monfils and Ferrer for a second and assume Murray and Nadal are to meet. Andy in the past when playing Nadal at MC has shown that aggression can help him compete against Nadal on Clay. The problem is when Murray engages in passive rallies with Nadal, he is going to get hit off the court. Andy has to play within tight margins if he is to beat Nadal. That is why no-one has come close to that Soderling-esq performance back in 2009 over 5 sets.

[Calder106]

Still think Nadal is the opponent anyone would want to avoid on clay. However his back problems this year seem to make him a bit less sure of himself, maybe less inclined to play certain shots in case they aggravate it. Therefore a bit more vulnerable. We have seen from others (e.g. Federer and Murray) that with a back problem can feel really bad one day but be only a minor irritant the next. Don't see Nadal giving up his FO crown without a real fight.

[The Special Juan]

The only thing RG has told me is that Murray is the man to avoid at Wimbledon. He finally looks back to his best (or very near it) and as soon as he gets on the cow food I reckon he'll do very well. My only concern is his serve is looking a bit flaky, but on saying that it's looked bad for over a year now but he's still won tournaments (2!!) with it.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Nadal has to play like 2010 Nadal and serve the hell out of the ball, otherwise Ferrer can beat him. I anticipate Berdych to have problems against Gulbis and lose in 4.

[banbrotam]

Murray and Monfils are very similar players, this will benefit andy a lot

Don't see it. Andy thinks about every point, often far too much. Clear Monfils doesn't - hence his wonderfull inconsistency

[The Special Juan]

I'll give Mug half a chance against Sharapova, the best player left in the draw. I want Eugenie to win the whole thing, though. If not her then Kuzzy!!

[The Special Juan]

Sharapova's having great difficult when serving into the ad court. I make that 3 or 4 DFs in 2 service games. Mug is up a double break.

[Jahu]

Yeah people, lets forget Murray and Nadal for now.

Murray will go to SF, no worry, and in the name of Independent Scotland go to final too   

Lets raise our glasses and cross our fingers for Raonic to be at his best and give us a good match.   

[sirfredperry]

Phew. 6-1 to Mug in first set v Shazza. Fightback or annihilation ?

[The Special Juan]

Phew. 6-1 to Mug in first set v Shazza. Fightback or annihilation ?

It looks like the latter. Mug is very reminiscent of a certain Russian at Wimbledon a decade or so ago...

[laverfan]

Bouchard fought back from 5-2 to 6-5. One more game to grab the set. Come on Genie!

[The Special Juan]

If Bouchard does pinch this set I'd expect CSN to fold.

[laverfan]

She does it in a TB.

[Guest]

Masha to serve to level things.

[DirectView]

Djokovic would thank the gods, titans, and oracles if he landed a clash vs anyone but Nadal in the Finals, I mean really? Nadals worst year on clay is still a masters title better than anything Murray has ever done on the surface. Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set. It's only been five years since he lost on Paris clay. Best of five is a different animal, that's why despite going on various streaks against Nadal, Djokovic only beat him in five setters during that year he seemed to walk on water.

But people are talking here on match ups, and i certainly feel Djoko has the edge over Rafa and his hungrier for a french open title. Compared to Rafa, Murray could be more deadly in the finals for 1]He will play pressure free given he reached a stage he never reached before, 2] He knows how to control the game against Djoko.

Djoko and his team already have a very successful formula against Rafa, not sure whether they have spend any time in preparing a plan for Murray in clay, after all nobody expects a certain Murray to make the finals let alone Djoko team.

[kingraf]

Djokovic would thank the gods, titans, and oracles if he landed a clash vs anyone but Nadal in the Finals, I mean really? Nadals worst year on clay is still a masters title better than anything Murray has ever done on the surface. Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set. It's only been five years since he lost on Paris clay. Best of five is a different animal, that's why despite going on various streaks against Nadal, Djokovic only beat him in five setters during that year he seemed to walk on water.

But people are talking here on match ups, and i certainly feel Djoko has the edge over Rafa and his hungrier for a french open title. Compared to Rafa, Murray could be more deadly in the finals for 1]He will play pressure free given he reached a stage he never reached before, 2] He knows how to control the game against Djoko.

Djoko and his team already have a very successful formula against Rafa, not sure whether they have spend any time in preparing a plan for Murray in clay, after all nobody expects a certain Murray to make the finals let alone Djoko team.

yeah, the 5/0 head to head at Paris really brings this point home.

[banbrotam]

Monfils is rubbish, Murray has no risk there. He will essentially let Monfils destroy himself.

Well it depends though. Stranger things have happened. We have already seen here at RG, Andy letting his guard slip momentarily V Kohli and Verdasco today and he nearly paid the price. If he starts slowly or chucks in a flimsy service game early doors and the French crowd are given hope then who knows? Andy must be on his toes and aggressive and he will prevail.

I don't see Monfils been consistent enough for long enough to get in such a dominant position to win

I can see him having 20 minute dominant spells - but I also think that as soon as Andy gives players like this something to think about with interest, their confidence simply goes. He's a master at taking the sting out of these players (see JJ at last years Wimby SF)

I'm delighted it's Monfils rather than the unyielding Berdych  or Ferrer

Of course if his Koli match catches up with him, then he will lose. But note, that he was pumped and confident for this match a minute after his Verdasco victory and usually that means he wins. The last time I saw him been so confident, post match was just before his Rafa match at Aus 2010

[banbrotam]

Djokovic would thank the gods, titans, and oracles if he landed a clash vs anyone but Nadal in the Finals, I mean really? Nadals worst year on clay is still a masters title better than anything Murray has ever done on the surface. Nadals control game has been on full display this year, I think he's averaging like 3.5 errors a set. It's only been five years since he lost on Paris clay. Best of five is a different animal, that's why despite going on various streaks against Nadal, Djokovic only beat him in five setters during that year he seemed to walk on water.

But people are talking here on match ups, and i certainly feel Djoko has the edge over Rafa and his hungrier for a french open title. Compared to Rafa, Murray could be more deadly in the finals for 1]He will play pressure free given he reached a stage he never reached before, 2] He knows how to control the game against Djoko.

Djoko and his team already have a very successful formula against Rafa, not sure whether they have spend any time in preparing a plan for Murray in clay, after all nobody expects a certain Murray to make the finals let alone Djoko team.

yeah, the 5/0 head to head at Paris really brings this point home.

It's dangerous to 'dine out' on H2H records. I actually think Rafa will win, but more because Nole has forgotten how to win slams, rather than Rafa having the hex over him

[HM Murdock]

yeah, the 5/0 head to head at Paris really brings this point home.

As much as I hate picking and choosing on statistics, the 5-0 H2H is only relevant if we think the matches of 2006, 2007 and 2008 tell us much about the present.

[The Special Juan]

Bad day for me if Mug and Bouchard lose.

[HM Murdock]

It's dangerous to 'dine out' on H2H records. I actually think Rafa will win, but more because Nole has forgotten how to win slams, rather than Rafa having the hex over him

My thoughts exactly, well put.

Novak currently has the momentum in the rivalry but I no longer have any confidence in him bringing the goods in any slam final.

[Guest]

I think Djokovic v Nadal will actually be an interesting this time round. Djokovic has the crisis of low self confidence and I think Nadal has a crisis of confidence against Djokovic!

[TopoftheChops]

Come on eugenie!

[TopoftheChops]

boom sharapova vs bouchard semi final

[Guest]

So Bouchard v Sharapova it is! Hoping Bouchard goes all the way!

[naxroy]

I think all points are valid here, thats why its difficult to tell what would happen in a djoko nadal final

of course djokovic seems to have the game plan and the quality to beat nadal anytime, as he is showing since usopen, even on clay as he did in 2011 en 2013 montecarlo and last week in rome

but its also true that 63-1 and 5-0 mean soething


even without the back problem it is a difficult call, but with it.... I even doubt nadal can get to the final. and if he does get there... I dont think the back is giving a real problem then so it wouldnt be a factor to consider

[naxroy]

bad day for spanish girls. they both had their chance...

[HM Murdock]

I think Djokovic v Nadal will actually be an interesting this time round. Djokovic has the crisis of low self confidence and I think Nadal has a crisis of confidence against Djokovic!

So we can expect a poor performance from both then!   

Maybe we should hope for Gulbis v Monfils, that might be fun.

[Guest]

I think Djokovic v Nadal will actually be an interesting this time round. Djokovic has the crisis of low self confidence and I think Nadal has a crisis of confidence against Djokovic!

So we can expect a poor performance from both then!   

Maybe we should hope for Gulbis v Monfils, that might be fun.

Well who would take the incentive? Djokovic needs to drop about 200lbs of German sausage and he will be back to his best!

Gulbis v Monfils would be a who can hit the stands the most!

[Guest]

Time for the boldest of bold prediction... Raonic to take a set.

[Guest]

Djokovic in straight sets and Berdych in straight sets too.

[Jahu]

One of these is going into 5 sets.

[HM Murdock]

If Raonic brings the performance he brought in Rome, this could be tighter than comfortable.

We are approaching the stage of a slam where Novak usually gets drawn into an unneccessarily painful 5 set bloodbath!

[Guest]

Pattern already developing, if Raonic doesnt serve lights out Djoko wins prolly about 80% of the rallies

[TopoftheChops]

Raonic has started well, Gulbis even better start vs berdych

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