Newark by election - First poll shows it's game on !!

2010 General Election
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Conservative 54 %
Labour 22 %
Lib Dem 20 %
UKIP 3 %

Survation poll commissioned and carried out this week by The Sun newspaper.......................

Conservative 34 %
UKIP 28 %
Labour 27 %
Lib Dem 5 %

Have to factor in it's only one poll..............Though Survation tends to be a respected pollster.....

Can UKIP buy into the 27% of the Labour vote is probably the question............

Certainly If this poll isn't an outlier it's closer than I expected..

Interesting spread. Problem with polls is they aren't quite anonymous, and people sometimes tell you what they want you to hear. I stand to be corrected, but I'll believe a party losing 20% in one region when I see it.

Thought anyone who believed Agassi could press 415 for 2 reps would believe anything...........  

1. Survation was commissioned by the Sun which is a Tory paper.......Making the Conservatives look bad isn't part of the paper's narrative..

2. By elections are different than general elections as they are generally used as a protest against the incumbent administration.....Norwich and Crewe in the last parliament saw huge Labour majorities turn into huge Conservative ones.......

3. UKIP have changed the usual dynamic..................

I think that the Cons will keep Newark but would not be surprised at all if UKIP gain their first MP. It might be a way for the Tory voters to send just one more message to Cameron. And indeed the Labour voters to Miliband.

Don't forget, this is a safe Tory area with a defending 16,000 majority. Going to be anxious times for the Tories for sure.

Moving back out. Tories now 42% to UKIP's 27%. Labour next with 20%.

Hopefully will turn into a comfy Tory win.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10870510/Tories-on-course-for-overwhelming-win-in-Newark-poll-suggests.html

But if UKIP get within 4,000 the message will still have been sent.

Cameron has to respond. But what can he do?

Yes I don't really like Roger Helmer, and he wouldn't be ever so fond of me, either, so I do hope the Tories hold here.

I think UKIP are just hoping to cut into the sizeable majority that the Tories presently have.

Message was sent last week, don't think a routine comfy Tory win really says anything new/different.