12 months out...

Just thought I'd get everyone's opinions on how their teams are developing leading up to the world cup, I'll start.

SA - my personal favourites right now, look settled, and bedding in some real quality in certain areas. Have an unrivalled pack, but success will depend on the halfback partnership selected.

NZ - up there with SA, but I just don't think they have the grunt to get enough of a platform to play off to beat the boks, replacements for kiwi legends aren't going to be ready come world cup time, and they're 2 key injuries away from having problems, always a threat though.

England - home advantage, tough group, but 3 players vying for each position. Time has come for Lancaster to nail his colours to the flag, get behind a settled squad and for 12 months just win games in any way. Capable of beating aus and Wales, but just as capable as losing too.

Aus - huge talent, unmatched ability in the back line, but problems all over, public struggling, team uninspiring, and as weak as they've been for years. However can and will feel Wales a inferior, and beating England is possible, they'll need their best players available though.

Wales - look to be unravelling fast, dominant team up north for the last few years, and generally lose when they don't perform and win when they do, however they just don't beat SH teams and would need a run avoiding them to go anywhere.

Ireland - similar to Wales, ageing team, results hit and miss, some good talent but ultimately huge luck needed.

Scot, arg and Samoa are probably on par as rank outsiders.

So who do you think are shaping up nicely, and who would you put your money on?

SA didn't look too flash today, serious problems with Morne Steyn, everytime he tried to run he got caught, just doesn't have the pace to take a gap, he has no vision and is too pedantic.

Some very poor defence going for the ball (Cuthbert try) rather than tackling the ball carrier.

At least showed composure and guts today

Poor performance, but Wales pack is probably as physical as itngets and the only one able to match SA. There are some kids in SA's back line, doing well but inexperienced.

I think the 9 and 10 are really weak right now, and despite that they still look good.

SA are still my shout, I don't make knee jerk reactions after 1 game, similarly I don't see Wales as a real threat

NZ favourites for me at the moment, but theirs, and Wales's, are the oldest teams in the competition, so some injury and fitness risks there.

Eng and SA are going to be hard to beat, SA cos they are huge and good, Eng because we are playing at home and, today apart, are a hard team to beat defensively. But we still have far too many unanswered questions over key positions, especially in the backline. If we draft in Steffon Armitage i would rate our chances higher.

SA are actually my pick to win RWC. I think they mentally lacked the required precision today against Wales and wouldnt expect anything like that in RWC.

And lets not forget, its a NH-based tournament, and therefore i slightly favour teams with big forward/maul/scrum units as this is clearly going to be focused on by fans, media locally and refs.

After the Sa performance can't agree theyre ahead and as for this: "up there with SA, but I just don't think they have the grunt to get enough of a platform to play off to beat the boks"...what do you think we've been doing all these years?

And I'm not so sure of the age thing either- theres some fair dinosaurs in the Bok side.

make your mind up quins...'NZ faves for me...' 'SA are actually my pick' in the same post...

yes it is a NH based tournament, a scenario theyve never won with, so hardly a distinct advantage.

NZ best team at the moment.

but i think SA will squeak it at RWC in 14 months time.

too far away...we have the prospect of Oz for the 18, and they look to be improving. Be typical of them to block us a third attempt.

quinsforever wrote:NZ best team at the moment.

but i think SA will squeak it at RWC in 14 months time.

Only NZ seem able to nullify their driving maul. Its bloody lethal but NZ whole pack are driving into it the minute the jumper lands and that seems to make them move the ball quicker. I am not saying SA is a one trick pony but if a team can negate that threat it massively evens up the game

agree 14 months is a long way away in test rugby.

I'm very happy with Irelands chances. Italy have lost nine on the trot, France have won something like five out of their last seventeen games and then the winner of our group is extremely likely to face Argentina.

You could argue that the two teams in the most disarray in Europe are in our group and we are in the only group without a SANZAR nation. I think we are favourites to get to a semi-final on current form. We beat Romania, Canada, Italy, France and Argentina and we are in a semi-final, and it's our best ever World Cup. You have to be happy with that draw.

It would be typically French for France to reach the final.

Nematode wrote:It would be typically French for France to reach the final.

And then lose.

Remind me how you got that amazing group Notch?!   

I am frak jealous!

yappysnap wrote:Remind me how you got that amazing group Notch?!   

I am frak jealous!

France was a top seed. Then they gave the top job to Phillippe St. Andre and the rest is history. God bless the IRB for determining their seedings ludicrously early   

Of course, any slip up in the group and you face the All Blacks in the quarter-final. Massive carrot for winning the group as opposed to being runners-up but the other two top seeds are not doing well and it couldn't be a much kinder draw.

Feeling pretty confident as a Scot, we've got a good group, exciting players coming through and a good coach.

Expect to beat Japan & USA then tough fixture against SA.  Key match will probably be final game against Samoa.

Then against 2nd place of England, Australia & Wales in the quarters.

Cotter has 3 Test windows to find his strongest XV.  Pack should be competitive and there's some quality now in the backs with Scott, Maitland, Visser & Hogg.

Traditionally our stronger 6 Nations schedule with 3 at home and if Glasgow can have another strong season plus Edinburgh get the finger out (and a dash of luck with injuries) then Cotter should be able to get us in good nick for RWC.

Talk about the luck of the Irish!   

Ireland for RWC '15 then....

Ireland have a very good chance of reaching a first semi-final... unless NZ suspiciously lose to the Argies so they avoid facing South Africa in their semi-final... 

Wales are not 'unravelling fast' it usually takes us 79 minutes and 50 seconds.

yappysnap wrote:Talk about the luck of the Irish!   

Ireland for RWC '15 then....

France are sure to sack PSA next year and the new coach will have France playing great rugby, just in time for the world cup. Thats the luck of the Irish!   

profitius wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Talk about the luck of the Irish!   

Ireland for RWC '15 then....

France are sure to sack PSA next year and the new coach will have France playing great rugby, just in time for the world cup. Thats the luck of the Irish!   

Either that or we'll just get an injury crisis like we had at the end of last years 6N again.

@Taylorman: SA won in Europe at RWC 07.

MMaaxx wrote:@Taylorman: SA won in Europe at RWC 07.

yeah was referring to NH sides, re-read it and it appears to include SA so yep...behind is smacked...

Why are we worrying about whats going to happen in twelve months time, when we've got a Rugby champoionship in just 8 weeks, and I havent a clue whats going to happen in that?

yeah I reckon. thats another day, much to do before then...

Unusually, I'd place NZ and SA in the top bracket as WC potential sides  Hmmm, how did I work that one out?? - and them being the top two ranked sides too!  How coincidental.

But yes, they do look like they have more all round attritional punch - and that New Zealand display yesterday impressed me a lot.  Some of that progression up right against the side line at the closing stages of the game was so slick and effortless looking.  The issue with New Zealand though seems to be that the competition itself (WC) is always a greater enemy psychologically for them than the actual opponents they face.  Given that they eased that psychological burden somewhat with the win last time, they might be more relaxed this next time - and that's omenous.

England and Australia would be my other two there or thereabouts teams.  And that's in sheer observation of how they play and the consistency of that play - but obviously also proves how rankings work quite well, despite the criticisms they get.

Wales will put up a stern drive, I'm sure of that.  Perhaps unlucky to have been hit with such a grouping or else the sailing to the play off points might have been more guaranteed.  But England and Australia will be having sleepless nights about that red shirted side in the lead in and what destruction they might bring to some well laid plans for advancement.

Ireland................. a weird kettle of fish.  Very much still an 'On their Day' team in my opinion... and also unfortunately now very much one back to experimentation with some centrally influencial positions.  Not the best position to be in so close to the WC.
Consistency would still be a worry.  A team that needs to operate at high emotional intensity levels to get the work done against top sides, but a team equally that can slide into a kind of lethargy when facing 'lesser' sides.  So a team that could do well in the emotional play-off section but a side that might let concentration levels fall sufficiently not to make it out of their pool.

France will be France.  Nobody will know how to read them (though many will attempt to suggest they can!)  until they get to another final!  And if they trip and fall to another final then of course all bets are off on how useless they might have been getting there.

Just realised hadn't mentioned France at all as a threat, what a plonked to write them off!

Has been a good read till now, I get that there's a lot of time and a few tournaments to go, but we're probably watch 90% of players who will play at the world cup.

Trends tend not to derail too much, Australia's downward curve was watched for 18 months before bottoming out, the French also for 12 months.

I get the heeling Wales and Ireland are just on the brink of a downward curve, and SA in a place where they can really challenge NZ for the number 1 spot.

Neutralee wrote:Just realised hadn't mentioned France at all as a threat, what a plonked to write them off!

Has been a good read till now, I get that there's a lot of time and a few tournaments to go, but we're probably watch 90% of players who will play at the world cup.

Trends tend not to derail too much, Australia's downward curve was watched for 18 months before bottoming out, the French also for 12 months.

I get the heeling Wales and Ireland are just on the brink of a downward curve, and SA in a place where they can really challenge NZ for the number 1 spot.

Where do you get this feeling, up your R$%^&*M?  

Scratch

Please feel free to not insult me for holding a differing view from you!

My feeling comes from performances and key players,

Ireland

POC and BOD have been irreplaceable in recent years, with BOD a match winner time and time again, wiout these two players Ireland look nowhere near the same team. Toner and McFadden/earls just don't seem the same quality to me. Their key players are on the wane, best, heaslip, ferris, and rob Kearney not quite what they were (I heard ferris retired). In this Irish team I see a world class player surrounded by good players.

Same wit wales, Adam jones, jenkins were the corner stone of welsh success, and neither will be around next world cup. I don't see much quality coming through at lock, 9 and 10 has become a real problem position. With ought a dominant set piece garland could have the best back line on the planet and still lose to Japan.

Neutralee wrote:Scratch

Please feel free to not insult me for holding a differing view from you!

My feeling comes from performances and key players,

Ireland

POC and BOD have been irreplaceable in recent years, with BOD a match winner time and time again, wiout these two players Ireland look nowhere near the same team. Toner and McFadden/earls just don't seem the same quality to me. Their key players are on the wane, best, heaslip, ferris, and rob Kearney not quite what they were (I heard ferris retired). In this Irish team I see a world class player surrounded by good players.

Same wit wales, Adam jones, jenkins were the corner stone of welsh success, and neither will be around next world cup. I don't see much quality coming through at lock, 9 and 10 has become a real problem position. With ought a dominant set piece garland could have the best back line on the planet and still lose to Japan.

Insult? how did i insult you?

Was merely suggesting that your feeling was misplaced and suggesting where you might find it.

If you call that an insult you must have very thin skin

As for your 'analysis' of Wales it's totally wrong.

Firstly we have strength in depth from 1-15 bar a few positions, only at 6, 8 and 10 do i have real concerns about injury replacements. We have real quality at lock and 9,,,, but I grant you 10 is an issue

Gethin. James
Hibbard, Owens, Rees
Jones, Lee, Jarvis
AWJ, Charters, Evans, Ball, Davies
Lydiate, Coombes, Jones
Warburton, Tipuric, Turnbull - player of the tour for me.
Faletau, Baker
Philips, Davies, R Williams
Biggar, Hook, Priestland
Williams, North, J Williams
Roberts, Allen, Williams, JD2, Henson (ahem)
Cuthbert, L Williams
Halfpenny, L Williams, Morgan, Hook

Its a good experienced squad with numerous more on the fringes. Th hurt we just experienced has to galvanize us and that is the real acid test….will it?

We also know we have to work on our set piece but the only reason our 3rd team lost to Japan is because we were winning the Lions for GB and Ireland

p.s. judy garland is dead

Ok so let's test this strength and depth...

Jenkins and James aren't who they were, and Jenkins won't be around come world cup, behind them is little.

Rees is like 50, and no world cup option. Hibbard is rarely fit.

Adam jones is on the wane.

Warburtons injury rate is. Too high

No 8 options behind falatau.

No 6 options behind Lydiate.

Untested 9's flawed 10's.

The team is decent, and up there with anything the NH can offer, the bad news is that. There isn't much on offer up north right now.

I like Wales, but there is just not the playing staff there to challenge for a world cup seriously, sorry if that offends you.

I wonder if they have a    of a chance?

It would be glorious if they did.

 

reached a similar conclusion myself a few days ago. but fair play, let's give the lad a chance at net-neutrality shall we

I hope Gatland and Co now don't think everything is rosey again after Saturdays game. As great a game as it was for me it is still papering over some very big cracks.

For one it seems we always have to wait until its to late or our backs are against the wall before we play any decent rugby.

In the WC we simply have to hit ground running but we are notoriously slow starters and that really worries me. After the 1st test I called for Jenkins, Charteris, Phillips and Roberts to all be dropped and whilst 3 of them had their best game for a long while I just hope we look at viable options to them.

Then you add to that:-

Our vulnerability on the wings with neither Cuthbert or North renowned for their defence
Whilst we have some young talent at 9 none are really tested and that goes for the likes of Morgan and J Williams in the backs or Baker at 8 if Faletau gets injured.

Who is Wales first game come world cup?

After seeing Wales go 17-0 up and play good stuff I thought my predictions had been smashed and I was going to eat my words. But the mindset of hold on, instead of hammer home the difference is visible between hemispheres.

SA kicking to the corners instead of posts, them bigger taking 50m potshots.

Wales had the ability to. Win that game, and has the squad to be beating the l,ikes of Australia, south Africa, Argentina and Samoa, but they seem to decide to play like underdogs at times, when their performance is. It so.

[quote="Neutralee"]Who is Wales first game come world cup?

Play Off Winner - Cardiff

England - Twickenham

Oceania 1 - Cardiff

Australia - Twickenham

Even now if it comes down to a winner takes all game against the Aussies I can see us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Having looked at the fixtures just realised England not playing all games at Twickenham, seems strange that. Did they decide to play the last game away from Twickenham so that Wales play there rather than give us Welsh home advantage in what could be vital game?

Barney McGrew did it wrote:I wonder if they have a of a chance?

No 7&1/2 wrote:It would be glorious if they did.

Yup!

Apparently from the US of A originally (this time).

Not sure what's going on above.

Bedfordwelsh

In that case Wales should be pretty dangerous, they have been no showing first game up, then adapting well after, so I expect that clash at twickenham to be the game of the group stage. At present you have to think England are favourites, but it'll be slight.

bedfordwelsh wrote:

Neutralee wrote:Who is Wales first game come world cup?

Play Off Winner - Cardiff

England - Twickenham

Oceania 1 - Cardiff

Australia - Twickenham

Even now if it comes down to a winner takes all game against the Aussies I can see us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  

Having looked at the fixtures just realised England not playing all games at Twickenham, seems strange that.  Did they decide to play the last game away from Twickenham so that Wales play there rather than give us Welsh home advantage in what could be vital game?

That group is the best World Cup group i've ever seen   . Its just brilliant for the AB and the Boks and the perenial darkhorses the French. If the Aussies get eliminated (hopefully  ) the Boks dont have to face a side that enjoys ruining World Cups for them . If the English get eliminated , The All Blacks dont run the risk of meeting them and getting massacred in a RWC final at Twickers infront of 80 000 English fans ala 2012 . And if the Welsh get eliminated everyone breathes a collective sigh of relief because you just never know which Welsh team will turn up on the day as the 6N teams especially England have found out in recent years . Happy days for everyone   

Didn't see much of the Aus Fra games so can't judge but reports say that the Aussies are getting things back together.

The RC will be interesting to see how they get on against the other big 2 SH sides.

Except play off winner and oceana 1...

Aus were ok, hard to tell if France were poor, improved or just both though, but then I only caught the near 0-0 draw.

The RC will highlight where aus are, but then even if aus a still as bad as they have been, they know they are 9-0 over Wales?

Neutralee wrote:Except play off winner and oceana 1...

It could well come down to points/tries difference/scored etc to decide this group.

bedfordwelsh wrote:

Neutralee wrote:Except play off winner and oceana 1...

It could well come down to points/tries scored etc to decide this group.

I think Venue will decide . Whoever decided the Wales Aussie game should be at Twickenham not the Millennium pulled a real power move . It significantly reduces the chance of Wales winning both games by forcing them to play away vs the two big teams

Exactly, = no easing off the gas by anyone one of the 3 teams

Bullsbok wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:

Neutralee wrote:Except play off winner and oceana 1...

It could well come down to points/tries scored etc to decide this group.

I think Venue will decide . Whoever decided the Wales Aussie game should be at Twickenham not the Millennium pulled a real power move . It significantly reduces the chance of Wales winning both games by forcing them to play away vs the two big teams

England are playing their last game on same day at Old Trafford so I reckon they gave up the home advantage of twickenham which meant Wales could play there rather than at the MS.

It's all fair really, it isn't Wales home world cup, having any games at the millennium stadium is a bonus surely?

Much as it pains me, 12 months out, home advantage, I like England. They have shown they can push NZ. They can match SA up front and batter most others.

Lancaster is the key to this. Not convinced he knows what his best side is. Needs to take his balls in hand and squeeze hard. In my opinion only he can Frak it up.

dragonbreath wrote:Much as it pains me, 12 months out, home advantage, I like England. They have shown they can push NZ. They can match SA up front and batter most others.

Lancaster is the key to this. Not convinced he knows what his best side is. Needs to take his balls in hand and squeeze hard. In my opinion only he can Frak it up.

+1

England are the favourite in my book also and you've hit the nail on the head with the fact that Lancaster is key. The positive is that he's trying some of these combinations out now to see if they work. Some have, and some have been pretty dodgy (Tuilagi on the wing anyone?). THe point is that he's seeing what works and what doesn't.

World Cup tiem I think this England squad is going to be primed!

AFewTooManyKnocks wrote:

dragonbreath wrote:Much as it pains me, 12 months out, home advantage, I like England. They have shown they can push NZ. They can match SA up front and batter most others.

Lancaster is the key to this. Not convinced he knows what his best side is. Needs to take his balls in hand and squeeze hard. In my opinion only he can Frak it up.

+1

England are the favourite in my book also and you've hit the nail on the head with the fact that Lancaster is key. The positive is that he's trying some of these combinations out now to see if they work. Some have, and some have been pretty dodgy (Tuilagi on the wing anyone?). THe point is that he's seeing what works and what doesn't.

World Cup them I think this England squad is going to be primed!

Good point. England look to have a good program and home advantage can't be underestimated. I think a lot of teams have a bit of improvement left in them. I think Ireland could be interesting. France have potential (they're so god damn awful at the moment, but you know they have potential). Australia look to be developing a forward pack and a consistent no 10. Folau is key to them. He's just prodigious and offers so many threats ball in hand. He's still learning the game. SA look potentially very good. Their set piece and mauling could be a real threat to everyone. I think the good thing for the AB's is they have a lot of improvement. I expect to see them look to lift their game substantially again over the next few months.