ATP points preview Wimbeldon 2014

New	Old	Name	Old	Dropped	Gained	New	Move
1	2	Djokovic	12,330	1200	2000	13,130	+1
2	1	Nadal	12,500	10	180	12,670	-1
3	4	Federer	4,945	45	1200	6,100	+1
4	3	Wawrinka	5,420	10	360	5,770	-1
5	6	Berdych	4,680	360	90	4,410	+1
6	9	Raonic	3,245	45	720	3,920	+3
7	7	Ferrer	4,190	360	45	3,875
8	8	Del Potro	4,080	720	0	3,360
9	13	Dimitrov	2,595	45	720	3,270	+4
10	5	Murray	4,680	2000	360	3,040	-5

Some scenarios:

Nadal will retain #1 ranking if he gets to the semi-final, or Djokovic doesn't win the tournament

Gaps between 3,4,5,6 are about 500 points, so semi-finals are needed for any changes.

Murray will fall out of the top 8 if he fails to make the semi-final

Updated after Round 1. No upsets in the top 16 seeds.

Updated after Round 2. Ferrer #7 seed is out. Raonic can over take Del Potro with a win in round 3.

Updated after Round 3. Berdych #6 seed is out. Raonic over takes Del Potro.

Updated after Round 4. Nadal #2 seed is out. Raonic can overtake Ferrer for #6 with a QF win. Winner of Murray vs Dimitrov will be higher ranked.

Updated after QFs. Murray #3 seed is out, drops 5 places to #10. Raonic moves up to #6. Dimitrov moves up to #9.  Federer can move above Wawrinka with a SF win. Dimitrov can move above Del Potro with a SF win.

Updated after SFs. Federer moves above Wawrinka for #3 (and Swiss #1). Djokovic will be world #1 with a final win. Federer aiming for Slam #18.

Updated after F. Djokovic moves up to world #1. Also now has a 600 point lead over Nadal in the race for year end #1. Federer is 3rd a further 2000 points back.

Other winners from this years wimbledon: Federer up to 3rd, Berdych up to 5th (despite losing early), Raonic up to 6th, Dimitrov up to 9th.
The losers: Nadal loses #1. Murray drops 5 place to #10 (this could make his draws a lot tougher). Wawrinka drops one place to #4.

Thanks mate - It's mighty tight for #1, isn't it? If Nadal can hold onto it come the end of USO, I think he wins YE#1.

I think Raonic overtakes Murray this fortnight.

Murray outside the top 8 bracket is a horrendous R16 draw!! Nice table, cheers

nadal year end ranking totally depends on this tournament. he is never going to defend 4000 points in the usa, but the more he wins now the more he obliges novak. and I feel novak is at his limit

right now, if nadal wants to dream of holding number 1 till sptember, he must pray for someone to beat nole before the final

kingraf wrote:Thanks mate - It's mighty tight for #1, isn't it? If Nadal can hold onto it come the end of USO, I think he wins YE#1.

I think Raonic overtakes Murray this fortnight.

If Djoko wins Wimbledon and Makes USO finals he can still easily get the year end no.1 if he wins the WTF, so Nadal cannot seal year end No.1 even with an USO win, Nadal can only manage 800 points etc,.. which Djoko can compensate with a masters win and a title in Wimbledon.   

naxroy wrote:right now, if nadal wants to dream of holding number 1 till sptember, he must pray for someone to beat nole before the final

Cilic might just do that.   

Unless Murray goes deeper and he ends up outside top 8 it will be sore to see. However, in the coming weeks he has not got a lot to defend thereafter so I would be surprised if (by the US Open) he wasn't at least back up into the top 8.

Novak will likely get to number 1 sometime between now and the end of USO.

He then, however, has a huge number of points to defend and a baby arriving! I think he needs to be a long way in front by the end of USO to have a decent chance of YE#1.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Unless Murray goes deeper and he ends up outside top 8 it will be sore to see. However, in the coming weeks he has not got a lot to defend thereafter so I would be surprised if (by the US Open) he wasn't at least back up into the top 8.

Also, with Del Potro injured, Murray is effectively #9. So he could sneak into the top 8 if anyone else above him pulls out of a tournament.

It's been a good year for the rankings - nice battles all year thus far between 1-2, 3-4 and then plenty of change below them.

Murray at #10 is bizarre to see. Thanks for updating this zaron   

despite incredible run in the rankings by nadal last season, he still had australian open, miami and wimbledon to gain 5000 points

of those 5000 he managed to gain 1980, but eventhough it was not a bad balance, it falls short as he also lost unexpected points at indian wells, barcelona and montecarlo. in these three tournaments, he defended 2100 points from last season of which he just really defended 315

at this point last season, nadal had won 7010 points, this season he has won 6645, all in all its not bad

I know it sounds silly but Federer is still eyeing for the 1 last year end no.1 to tie Pete Sampras.   

well, its federer, who knows.

I would be very happy if he won another slam, also if nole does, and also if a new slam winner appears this week. any outcome is fine for me now.

Murray may fall out of the Top 10, but Zaron can confirm.

laverfan wrote:Murray may fall out of the Top 10, but Zaron can confirm.

Murray can't fall below #10 this week. And Del Potro has 500 points from Washington to defend, so Murray could move up a place before Canada. But he has 270 points to defend before the USO and 360 there, so if he lost all those that would give him 2410, below Nishikori, Isner and Gulbis. So yeah, it could get worse for Murray.

Blimey....#10 for Murray is a disaster. The partnership with Mauresmo could be very short lived given all the improvements he said he needs to make.

lydian wrote:Blimey....#10 for Murray is a disaster. The partnership with Mauresmo could be very short lived given all the improvements he said he needs to make.

Ten is bad but if he can recover a decent run of results prior to the US Open he should catapult back up the rankings as he has not many points to defend (IIRC) but of course the way things are at the moment that is a big if. The improvements he needs to make are mental and tactical. The basic core of his game is strong and has won him slams so the game is there it is more about expelling the negativity from his game and head and moving forward.

We'll have to disagree there CC. I don't believe the core of his game is strong...you mention winning slams but I'll always say his 2 slams came at the perfect time...no Nadal/Federer, high winds, etc. yeah I know..,bite me

He seems in panic mode to me, too quickly pulling the trigger in rally's like Federer used to do. He's also got quite a few technical gremlins that have crept in whilst he's been away from Lendl which is a worry and suggests, again, his core game isn't as rock solid as you make out.

Gremlins yes I like that term and I'd agree with that but saying his core game isn't strong is way off the mark. You do not win two slams, an Olympic Gold, around 30 titles, reach almost ten slam finals having anything other than a strong core game. Is everything alright in his game right now? Of course not he is too inconsistent? Is everything alright in his head right now? No as two crunch matches in slams have seen him go out with a whimper. He needs to sort those issues out.

This year is surely a write off for Murray now.

Draws are only going to get tougher and with the likes of Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov lurking ever closer is going to make it even worse!

Indeed LK.

CC, I mean strong core relative to Nadal, Federer, etc, not vs Ward, Evans, etc. His game isn't, and never has been, silky smooth...his technique doesn't purr like some of the other top players. I can get into technical detail about it if you like including his W forehand which he changed to SW but keeps slipping to W at crunch moments so he tops the ball into the net...how many times do we see him doing that. Or the lack of small adjustment steps to wide FHs, so he overreaches and strains his back...or THAT 2nd serve which is barely top 50 and he still hasn't spent enough time addressing...I'm still stunned no-one really goes after it.

He's a great player but he's more mechanical than Nadal, Federer or even Djokovic, so it's easier for his game to break down if his training or mental set up starts to lag.

I think Murray has a strong core. You don't rack up the titles or stats he has without a strong core. The problem is it's not as strong as a Nadal's/Federer's/Djokovic's who are above him. His FH has been a liability granted, but in fairness not many of the top players have weapons off both sides. I would say that Stan and Djokovic have the best of both at this moment in time.

legendkillarV2 wrote:This year is surely a write off for Murray now.

Draws are only going to get tougher and with the likes of Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov lurking ever closer is going to make it even worse!

It's a worry if he starts losing to him!! That would be like Federer losing to Dimitrov or Djokovic losing to Halep.

lydian wrote:We'll have to disagree there CC. I don't believe the core of his game is strong...you mention winning slams but I'll always say his 2 slams came at the perfect time...no Nadal/Federer, high winds, etc. yeah I know..,bite me

He seems in panic mode to me, too quickly pulling the trigger in rally's like Federer used to do. He's also got quite a few technical gremlins that have crept in whilst he's been away from Lendl which is a worry and suggests, again, his core game isn't as rock solid as you make out.

Was Federer not at the 2012 US Open, were Nadal and Federer not at Wimbledon 2013 and potential opponents for Murray in the semi's ? Of course these slam wins came at the perfect time as Murray was the player who was in the best condition and state of mind to win them. He currently isn't so is an easy match for any top player he is playing.

I agree his core game (however strong it is) is just not. there. He seems to be betwixt and between with whether to defend or attack.

naxroy wrote:well, its federer, who knows.

I would be very happy if he won another slam, also if nole does, and also if a new slam winner appears this week. any outcome is fine for me now.

No option really for you right   

Lets not make this another Murray thread, come on   

Raonic will be juuuuust shy of Berdych if he wins tomorrow. 10 points!

Adding the current race standings to the thread, courtesy of Yvonne in the Murray WTF thread:

1 Rafael Nadal 6650
2 Novak Djokovic 5970
3 Stan Wawrinka 4095
4 Roger Federer 4080
5 Tomas Berdych 3050
6 Grigor Dimitrov 2785
7 Andy Murray 2435
8 Kei Nishikori 2405
9 David Ferrer 2385
10 Ernests Gulbis 2265
11 Milos Raonic 2205
12 Marin Cilic 1730
13 Fabio Fognini 1500
14 Alexandr Dolgopolov 1410
15 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1365