Japan break into the Top 10

With Japan's first ever victory over Italy, they find themselves breaking into the top 10 of the IRB rankings. It's great to see a new face in the top 10 and with some big scalps in recent times, has Japan finally shaken the minnow tag with which they have been associated in the past?

Teams like the Pacific Islands and Argentina struggle to get their best available squads due to club players not always being available. Is Japan's domestic league bearing fruit with foreign players qualifying through residence to bolster the team and Japan not needing to rely on foreign-based players to be integrated back into the squad?

IRB World Rankings:
1 New Zealand 93.81
2 South Africa 89.34
3 Australia 86.94
4 England 85.68
5 Ireland 83.44
6 Wales 80.70
7 France 80.01
8 Scotland 77.78
9 Samoa 76.59
10 Japan 75.39
11 Fiji 74.56
12 Argentina 73.98
13 Tonga 72.58
14 Italy 70.92
15 Georgia 70.46
16 Romania 68.42
17 Canada 68.01
18 USA 67.30
19 Uruguay 62.89
20 Russia 62.06

Could we see the likes of Italy and the Pacific Islands further slide down given that their exposure to top-ranked teams affords them ranking rises not available usually to Japan? Japan seemingly has a much harder task with more isolated games against top opposition, which makes their top 10 ranking all the more remarkable. From 10-20, which other teams could realistically break into the top 10 in the relative short term?

Thats a great effort by Japan. Do they still have too many residency based players or are they actually predominantly Japanese players these days?

Someone like Georgia have the pack to make a challenge for the top 10 i would say, but im not sure how good their backs are to compliment that?

Canada? USA? Georgia? A few tweaks, a higher quality of coaching, some favourable calendars with games against mid to low ranked Top 10 sides - even against a side such as Japan itself who is now a favourable target for prospective points stealers too! - I can see the possibility that a few sides now outside the Top10 could realistically shove themselves in there over the course of a year or two.

But also, that idea that you mention whereby some teams get it easier to keep up in the rankings by virtue of the number of times they get the opportunity to play high ranked sides - well, after the Summer, those periods will come again.  The SH giants will help each other on points amassing during the Rugby Championship and the NH will help themselves to their points collecting during the 6N and/or the AIs

So Japan has slipped into the Top10 and delighted for them and their fans (I have a real soft spot for Japan and its people) but I'd expect them to be knocked out of it pretty damn quickly again as Argentina prepares for the RC.

It is seriously about that willingness for Top Tier sides to actually more regularly play the 'outsiders' that will decide how often those 'outsiders' make inroads into the Top 10.

It is good to see but they gained 1.84 points by beating a very understrength Samoan side when the Samoans were five places ahead of them. Without that, they'd still be in 13th place.

Japan always does well intra world cups in pacific cups and things because the polynesian players don't get released for things like this and play 2nd/3rd string sides.

Then again they did beat a Wales 2nd XV so they can't be all that bad.

Good for them.

Maybe its time to ditch Italy out of the 6 nations?

Scrumpy wrote:Good for them.

Maybe its time to ditch Italy out of the 6 nations?

Japan in instead? Good idea. It would be nice to do a 6,000 mile Cherry Blossom trip in cold and grey February.

now that argentina has got a place in the RC and a spot in SR 2016 I think we will see less chaps like Parisse, Castrogiovanni, Dominguez etc jump to Italy. Obviously those guys had strong family ties to Italy but with those things going for Argentina I think Italy will have to rely on more 3N imports.

Italy may start to struggle in the 6N more than they do already.

Not necessarily a good thing for Italy. Lots of Smiths, Wilsons, Jones, De Villiers, Bothas, De Wets, Claassens I imagine will find themselves in the colours of the azzuri in years to come.

Argentines playing for Italy on family/cultural grounds is the healthy option but no inroads made on results?
3N Smiths, Carters, DeVilliers and Dundees not the healthy option but just might begin to win more games?

Is that really the swing you're putting on that one, fa?

Hmmm... if I asked an Italian, I wonder which one he'd choose?......

Guys like castrogiovanni and Parisse stay for life... guys like Claassen, Smith & Robertson will go home the minute their contracts end.

I know which one I would prefer.... and the argentinian italians have been of a far better calibre than those from the 3N... probably because they play abroad anyhow as they don't need residency to qualify. Few decent players will go to Italian clubs whilst they perform so poorly/don't have the resources to attract the best players and compete with Toulon etc.

It's not [the Argentinian connection] making inroads in the right areas fa.

But of course the real reason is much more bland and straightforward though - and bears similarities to Scotland - Not enough of a national profile for the game, not enough Professional sides.

I think the Italians are beginning a reassessment of how they plan to progress now and I think it involves increasing concentration on growing the domestic game (distinct from both Pro12 and International) They've pretty much reached the conclusion too - along with many of us observers - that a different approach is required to keep alive the sport in that country. 'More of the same' isn't working.

fa0019 wrote:Japan always does well intra world cups in pacific cups and things because the polynesian players don't get released for things like this and play 2nd/3rd string sides.

Then again they did beat a Wales 2nd XV so they can't be all that bad.

Sorry to keep mentioning this but that was never Wales seconds. More like Wales thirds/fourths realistically.

how many players went on lions tour... 15 odd?

If you take out 15 players and the next best players are available and go then technically they were your 2nd XV.

There were also injuries, omissions and even a couple of 2nd choices taken with the Lions. Emyr Phillips played hooker and he's 4th choice at best behind Hibbard, Owens and Rees. Novice Dafydd Howells was brought along before he'd even played a game for the Ospreys. Robinson? Prydie? Spratt? Reed? Pretorius? None of these guys would be considered even close to 2nd choice by any sane person in Wales.

Wales were 3rd choicers at best.

Yeah there was more like 25+ players missing iirc- plus half the coaching staff.

I just don't see how too much value can be given to the World Rankings.

When a team doesn't have their best players available they can drop a number of places which completely belies their real ability.

Biltong wrote:I just don't see how too much value can be given to the World Rankings.

When a team doesn't have their best players available they can drop a number of places which completely belies their real ability.

True, the rankings can't really take squad depth into account. With Wales the general consensus is that the first team is capable of competing against nearly anyone (with the possible exception of NZ). All that's needed though is a few injuries to unbalance the squad and more than a few to leave it looking partially drained. Teams like NZ, SA and England generally face this problem to a far lesser degree (though depth doesn't seem to correlate universally with population).

The concept behind it is just to give people an idea of which sides are hot and which are not at the present time, results-wise. The rankings have partial value imo in that a high ranking is generally a positive indicator of form and being ranked highly usually comes with successes in their own right, such as beating other highly ranked sides or winning competitions. But they should never be considered as having absolute value.

Think this says more about the demise of Italy, while Japan have picked up some good scalps against understrength, higher-ranked teams, it doesn't make them a nailed on top-12 side for the World Cup imo, or even a favourite for it.

They'll be looking to beat the US and they have no hope against South Africa. The other two teams in their pool are Scotland and Samoa and I'd say they are likely to lose both of them, especially as it's almost a home game for Scotland, while Samoa will have all the benefit of the preparation time that they only get at World Cups.

robbo277 wrote:Think this says more about the demise of Italy, while Japan have picked up some good scalps against understrength, higher-ranked teams, it doesn't make them a nailed on top-12 side for the World Cup imo, or even a favourite for it.

They'll be looking to beat the US and they have no hope against South Africa. The other two teams in their pool are Scotland and Samoa and I'd say they are likely to lose both of them, especially as it's almost a home game for Scotland, while Samoa will have all the benefit of the preparation time that they only get at World Cups.

Agreed. Italy have gone into free fall, losing every game this year. Having beaten France and Ireland in last years 6N, this has been a poor one for Italian rugby all round.

Their 2 pro12 teams were bottom of the pile and players are leaving those two clubs in droves.

Fair play to Japan though. You have to win your games and they did.

I think Japan are capable of taking scalps of teams that don't have their full complement of players but even that is a step up from where they were before. In years gone by any team could've sent a squad to Japan and won but they have come a long way since their world record 95 humping by NZ. That is in part to the depleted teams they've faced but more to do with the improved squad they have at their disposal.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think Japan are capable of taking scalps of teams that don't have their full complement of players but even that is a step up from where they were before. In years gone by any team could've sent a squad to Japan and won but they have come a long way since their world record 95 humping by NZ. That is in part to the depleted teams they've faced but more to do with the improved squad they have at their disposal.

The team is more professional now but I don't think they are much better than under John Kirwan when he led them to the 2011 Pacific Nations Cup. That should have led to at least one win at the World Cup later that year but they lost to Tonga - a team they had beaten the last four times - and could only draw with Canada.

Eddie Jones actually presided over a notable decline in performance during the initial matches of his tenure. He has placed less reliance on foreign imports than Kirwan as the JRU felt the public was having trouble connecting with the team. They haven't been ditched entirely - some are naturalized citizens - but Japan had fewer than Italy during their recent match.

Jones has helped develop more consistency and their win recent win over Canada showed great resilience. The real test will be the World Cup, however. Japan has still never won a match and they want to get one under the belt before they host the event themselves.

especially as it's almost a home game for Scotland,

Not if they vote yes....they'll need passports to get in!   

GeordieFalcon wrote:

especially as it's almost a home game for Scotland,

Not if they vote yes....they'll need passports to get in!   

As will the Queen to get to her Summer residence. They'll all meet each other at the border crossing as they're strip searched for contraband.

Biltong wrote:I just don't see how too much value can be given to the World Rankings.

When a team doesn't have their best players available they can drop a number of places which completely belies their real ability.

 
I'd say that regardless, the ranking system would appear to be a good representation of where those teams are in the world order, at least for the top ten, so it can't be a hugely flawed system.

NZ Maori will play two tests in Japan on the 1st and 8th November.

From there, they will travel to Singapore and play an Asia Pacific Dragons team made up of top Asian and Pacific Island players, coached by Tana Umaga.

Good reward for Japan for winning some high profile games of late and a chance to grow the game in Singapore. AIG as sponsors have their benefits...

Jimpy wrote:

Biltong wrote:I just don't see how too much value can be given to the World Rankings.

When a team doesn't have their best players available they can drop a number of places which completely belies their real ability.

 
I'd say that regardless, the ranking system would appear to be a good representation of where those teams are in the world order, at least for the top ten, so it can't be a hugely flawed system.

I think it's ok for most teams. The exceptions are the Pi teams and Argentina. These teams face a skewed system in terms of access to players and/or prep. Take Argentina for example. In three recent games against Ireland and Scotland they named a squad of 33, only 8 of whom played for professional clubs. Look at the team that ran out against Scotland 4 professionals I think. Puts the 2 point victory in perspective.

Japan have today officially requested that they be taken out of the Top 10.

They only got their 606V2 Membership Security Passes last week and after a weekend of scanning the pages, they feel it's too much hassle being in the Top 10.  They claim that they're not mentally prepared for the deluge of microscopic analysis, stat eejitry and rival tribal meltdown skirmishes.  They want to get back to the other 'normal' peoples.

Request denied.  

Poor Basterauds.

Presumably now Japan are in the top ten, Ohata will get the praise he deserves for his unbelievable try scoring record?

Bathman_in_London wrote:Presumably now Japan are in the top ten, Ohata will get the praise he deserves for his unbelievable try scoring record?

If he has an amazing try scoring record and still doesn't play in Top14 for a massive wage then............................................... I think it's still very much a rumour about his ability......

SecretFly wrote:

Bathman_in_London wrote:Presumably now Japan are in the top ten, Ohata will get the praise he deserves for his unbelievable try scoring record?

If he has an amazing try scoring record and still doesn't play in Top14 for a massive wage then............................................... I think it's still very much a rumour about his ability......

I think the bloke has retired to be fair to him...

.............well that works too.

blackcanelion wrote:I think it's ok for most teams. The exceptions are the Pi teams and Argentina. These teams face a skewed system in terms of access to players and/or prep. Take Argentina for example. In three recent games against Ireland and Scotland they named a squad of 33, only 8 of whom played for professional clubs. Look at the team that ran out against Scotland 4 professionals I think. Puts the 2 point victory in perspective.

There's a case to make for those matches not qualifying for ranking points.

Argentina and the Island teams are in the same position: they are Southern Hemisphere sides but the majority of their players make a living playing for Northern hemisphere club sides. As professional rugby players, though, their choices are somewhat restricted because Super Rugby is not as open to employing overseas players as clubs in Europe and Japan.

Since Argentina joined the Rugby Championship, they have been unable to field their first choice sides in the June Tests. The IRB obliges clubs to release players but it's not feasible for an Argentinian to play a full Northern season as well as June Tests and the Rugby Championship.

Rugby Fan wrote:

blackcanelion wrote:I think it's ok for most teams. The exceptions are the Pi teams and Argentina. These teams face a skewed system in terms of access to players and/or prep. Take Argentina for example. In three recent games against Ireland and Scotland they named a squad of 33, only 8 of whom played for professional clubs. Look at the team that ran out against Scotland 4 professionals I think. Puts the 2 point victory in perspective.

There's a case to make for those matches not qualifying for ranking points.

Argentina and the Island teams are in the same position: they are Southern Hemisphere sides but the majority of their players make a living playing for Northern hemisphere club sides. As professional rugby players, though, their choices are somewhat restricted because Super Rugby is not as open to employing overseas players as clubs in Europe and Japan.

Since Argentina joined the Rugby Championship, they have been unable to field their first choice sides in the June Tests. The IRB obliges clubs to release players but it's not feasible for an Argentinian to play a full Northern season as well as June Tests and the Rugby Championship.

I'm guessing not much can be done about it. The ranking system is as good as it can be. I'd like to see a bit more recognition of the issues facing emerging countries. Access to more tournaments and the teams above them, release of players for these games. More of a level playing field. I'm glad the IRB has looked at the timing of the games at the upcoming world cup. A little tweek to player availability for an additional couple of weeks in November would make a huge difference.

I'm not sure there is ultimately a perfect solution. We have the same problem in most of our sports. Major competition are held in Europe and it's difficult to access players and the cost and time are added burdens.

Having said that it's good to see teams like Scotland and Japan on the up.

Knowsit17 wrote:

fa0019 wrote:Japan always does well intra world cups in pacific cups and things because the polynesian players don't get released for things like this and play 2nd/3rd string sides.

Then again they did beat a Wales 2nd XV so they can't be all that bad.

Sorry to keep mentioning this but that was never Wales seconds. More like Wales thirds/fourths realistically.

I was going to post this as well, but you beat me too it.
Wales 2nd XV would of been a hell of a lot stronger than the weak squad Mcbryde picked for the Japan tour. He pretty much every first choice squad player behind from the tour never mind the Lions.
Only Dan Biggar could be considered be a first choice the others mainly were players who sometimes get the odd cal up, while half the squad didnt have any caps at all!