Will McIlroy win the Masters?

So Rory has 3 out of the 4 majors in the bag at the pretty young age of 25. Will he easily add the Masters or will it elude him as the US Open has eluded Mickelson?

Don't think there is any doubt IMO.

Sand wrote:Don't think there is any doubt IMO.

Agreed

Probably but a lot of variables. Will anyone else come along as a superstar, say Spieth? Will Kaymer keep winning majors, his restructured game should suit Augusta.
Id say he probably has 10 good chances left in him when he's in form, you'd be surprised if he didn't win a jacket but I don't think it's nailed on.

I thought Kaymer had just reverted to his old reliable, not suited for Augusta, power fadey game?

From what I can gather that's his stock shot...every pro has one...but he can now move the ball both ways when needed. That was my take on it anyway.

The Masters has always been the major most suited to McIlroy's game, and the one everyone expected he would win first. Although he has now won the other 3, it still remains the major most suited to his game. At some point in the next 5-6 years he will turn up at Augusta in the groove and go on to win.

I think it's a different scenario to Mickleson and the US Open. Mickelson's gung ho approach and erratic driving has never been suited to the US Open set up in my opinion so am not that surprised he has never won it, even though he's come close so many times.

Diggers wrote:From what I can gather that's his stock shot...every pro has one...but he can now move the ball both ways when needed. That was my take on it anyway.

Yes my take too. Still I would rather have Rory's big high draw as my stock shot if I was playing Augusta.

Yes.

(Also hope Phil wins a US Open.)

I'd say he probably has more like 15 to 18 goes at winning it and he'd be odds on to do it with that number of attempts. Augusta suits him tee to green, but he's still a bit of a streaky putter so it won't be as easy as some suggest.

Yes.

However I feel he is still a little too gung ho with course management. When he is on he can get away with it, he's that good. But I feel if he addressed this area he could win more even with his B-game. Case in point- On the saturday, not sure of the hole, he hit driver off the tee- the only club in his bag that brought the two bunkers at the edge of the fairway into play. Of course he hit a great drive and split the fairway, but not exactly the smartest play.

His length and accuracy off the tee was quite phenomenal this week, and most other weeks too!

Also, I'd hope he will stay injury free into the autumn of his career. His is a very powerful swing, and his action may not be suitable as his body ages. I believe he has already had some slight back trouble. As long as he doesn't become Woods mark 2 in his mid to late 30's, odds are he will pick up a few green jackets.

Bob_the_Job wrote:I'd say he probably has more like 15 to 18 goes at winning it and he'd be odds on to do it with that number of attempts.  Augusta suits him tee to green, but he's still a bit of a streaky putter so it won't be as easy as some suggest.

He may well play that often but I don't think that he will always be the main guy every time he enters. Its a massive assumption to make that even at say 36 he will be as good as he is now. The way he rips it he could have all sorts of injury problems, could lose form, could have a mental breakdown, loads of variables.
Also do we know yet if can win a major when he doesn't have a lead, how often will he go into a final round with that may shots to spare? Can he win a major from behind?
All that said I hope he wins a Masters, I hope he wins lots more majors and he probably will.

My estimate was based on him playing until he was about 45 but not playing the Masters every year due to injury etc. I also don't think he'll be the main guy every time or even contend every time, but out of those attempts I think it more likely than not he will win once - hence my vote yes.

It's true that all McIlroy's major wins have come from the lead, but he has won high profile and for various reasons, high pressure, events from behind - Quail Hollow and the PGA at Wentworth spring to mind. I actually think McIlroy would be very dangerous going into the last round of a major a few behind and having to let rip and free wheel - it's more his natural style.

As for his long term physical health, I was under the impression that a lot of "experts" think his swing will last and is not that harmful to him - but I guess time will tell. He certainly swings very full and hard, but it doesn't seem as violent in the transition or hitting zone to me as say Woods.

Main point though is, as a golf fan, I'm looking forward to watching his career and seeing if he can do it.

Diggers wrote:From what I can gather that's his stock shot...every pro has one...but he can now move the ball both ways when needed. That was my take on it anyway.

Ah fair enough. Thinking about it, he did hit a big high draw into the par three 13th yesterday. I thoght he would do better this week

Is the masters better suited to Rory or Bubba? After this year, it seemed that he could have a monopoly on Augusta.

Too many variables.
Can he? Well, his long game says he can but I'm not convinced about his short game in general. Was good this week but, generally, his putting isn't top drawer and it'll need to be round AGNC. I suppose his long game might render the putter (almost) academic if it's at its best.
Will he? Who knows. It'll be worth watching him try though.

Augusta would be a tricky one, of course he can win there, very nearly did, although as Navy says his putting is a bit sketchy, the trouble is that Augusta can throw up a lot of "freak" winners which could potentially get in McIlroy's way.

Have to say he probably will, but if he didn't, it wouldn't be because he isn't good enough and it wouldn't be anything for him to be ashamed of.

On another note, McIlroy must be in pole position for SPOTY, even in the normally overlooked "sport" of golf.

If Hamilton wins the F1 he gets it. I don't think people on here accept how disinterested the general public are in golf, pretty much every woman I've ever met outside a golf course despises the game with an intensity. The floating vote won't go with golf.

McIlroy would probably have to win the PGA, WGC, RtD and FEC to be considered for SPOTY.

Is it going to be the story of every Masters until he wins one or can't win one? Probably.......

Dave, the "story" is more interesting now because it's the only grand slam leg he's missing. And we know he has had the Masters in the bag before.

Diggers wrote:If Hamilton wins the F1 he gets it. I don't think people on here accept how disinterested the general public are in golf, pretty much every woman I've ever met outside a golf course despises the game with an intensity. The floating vote won't go with golf.

Agreed Diggers, but if Hamilton doesn't win the Engineering Competition coin toss, then I can't think of a single well known Brit who has achieved anything noteworthy in 2014.

Maybe another Token Gesture year like Giggs, or an equestrian fix like Horsey Philips.

The two bob Commonwealth Games won't produce anything so it's hard to think of a worse UK year.

It's not been great that's for sure. A far cry from 2012.

If he doesnt win spoty theres always the rte sports person of the year award for him. Mind you Lowry will be tough to beat

Diggers wrote:If Hamilton wins the F1 he gets it. I don't think people on here accept how disinterested the general public are in golf, pretty much every woman I've ever met outside a golf course despises the game with an intensity. The floating vote won't go with golf.

Which would be pathetic in the extreme...but entirely understandable. I can't think of a duller 'sport' than F1 these days and Hamilton himself really grinds my gears.

super_realist wrote:...the Engineering Competition coin toss...

navyblueshorts wrote:

Diggers wrote:If Hamilton wins the F1 he gets it. I don't think people on here accept how disinterested the general public are in golf, pretty much every woman I've ever met outside a golf course despises the game with an intensity. The floating vote won't go with golf.

Which would be pathetic in the extreme...but entirely understandable. I can't think of a duller 'sport' than F1 these days and Hamilton himself really grinds my gears.

Yeah, I'm not a Hamilton fan, he really thinks he's some kind of rock star. That said watching him charge through the field was fun, he can certainly drive. World is full of petrol heads though and they all seem to love F1.

I don't agree that F1 is as dull as some would have you believe; true their is a lot of manufactured racing these days but it's still a sport which requires phenomenal ability; reaction speed, timing, intelligence, bravery. If Hamilton is to win the F1 title then it would be an impressive feat given it would be against the odds in the sense he has had various problems throughout the campaign so far.

That being said it simply wouldn't be a feat which is on a par with McIlroy. If we were talking a 3rd or 4th title (something many expected him to be chasing by now) then perhaps..

McIlroy's feat is stunning; a 3rd major by 25 (only done by 2 others), leading from start to finish!

As for Augusta; would be shocked if he doesn't win it the once, I myself fully expect multiple wins on his way to 10+ majors in his career. Will he dominate golf the way Woods did...no one will in the same vein no one will replicate Phil Taylor in Darts...however he will do enough to etch his name up amongst the greats when looking back in 20 years.

Diggers wrote:Yeah, I'm not a Hamilton fan, he really thinks he's some kind of rock star. That said watching him charge through the field was fun, he can certainly drive. World is full of petrol heads though and they all seem to love F1.

I'd hazard a guess that anyone in that field would have done exactly the same in what is, obviously, by far the pre-eminent car on the grid this season. Hamilton's had it easy, car-wise, since he entered F1. Basically, the car's the star in F1 and who's piloting it round is not greatly relevant.

There's no denying the driver skill and fitness, but the problem is it is entirely reliant on the driver being in at best one of 2 best manufacturers, and in this year, it's only 1. The best driver hasn't a chance of winning without the best car.
It is effectively a coin toss and a battle of who has the best engineers. Vis a vis, incredibly boring on an actual sporting level, especially given the lack of overtaking and drama in most races too.

Horses for courses and I can see why people do like it, but I'd rather tune into the Paint Drying Channel or the Grass Growing Championships.

Sport in it's rawest form, is fundamentally stupid and pointless, and we've built past-times into entertainment, but for me F1 isn't remotely entertaining for a long list of reasons, plus I could punch Hamilton repeatedly for a week.

Agreed Super, but I have to admit golf is now the sport I have trouble watching. Take the Open, player hits a shot, we have no idea of the ball flight most of the time, camera scans all over the place for where it went...if they cant find it back to the player.
When you think that in football, or tennis say, you can see all the action as it happens, golf really doesn't give you that much in the way of detailed entertainment. Bar putting and chipping I guess, and who wants to just watch a putting contest, may as well be watching snooker.

Dunno. Maybe, maybe not.

Whoever would have thought (for example) that neither Arnold Palmer nor Tom Watson would win the PGA Championship in the course of their careers?

The older I get, the more I realise that winning on any given day is about getting slightly better breaks than your rivals. Your ball just evades a bush or a bunker or some deep rough, and you go on to win. Your opponent isn't quite as lucky and ends up in the bush or the bunker, and that's the difference.

The following week, he gets the break and you don't.

Diggers wrote:Agreed Super, but I have to admit golf is now the sport I have trouble watching. Take the Open, player hits a shot, we have no idea of the ball flight most of the time, camera scans all over the place for where it went...if they cant find it back to the player.
When you think that in football, or tennis say, you can see all the action as it happens, golf really doesn't give you that much in the way of detailed entertainment. Bar putting and chipping I guess, and who wants to just watch a putting contest, may as well be watching snooker.

One man's medicine Diggers,
I've never found golf an interesting sport to watch even though I'm a keen player and there isn't a single sport in which spectating matches the taking part, so I generally prefer to partake than spectate, the thing about F1 which makes it even more strange to be interested in is that not a single one of us knows what it's like to drive in it, and not one of us will ever get to take part, so I'm a bit bemused as to how people forge an interest in something like that.

I've driven fast carts and sports cars, and I've had very fast motorbikes with incredible acceleration, a hell of a lot of motor sports fans are the same. You don't have to have driven an FI car to understand speed. Equally you don't have to be able to crash a drive 350 yards to be able to appreciate that either.

George1507 wrote:Whoever would have thought (for example) that neither Arnold Palmer nor Tom Watson would win the PGA Championship in the course of their careers?

That's actually a fantastic point
I guess really if you win say 2 Opens, a PGA, a US Open and no Masters is that any less impressive than winning one of each or is it just the roll of the dice how it fell.
Is it more impressive that Michael Campbell won a US Open or that Mickleson has come 2nd six times?

It's a bit like Djokovic and the French Open. Until McIlroy wins the Masters, there will be a ton of pressure on him until he does. The sooner he does it the better.

lorus59 wrote:It's a bit like Djokovic and the French Open. Until McIlroy wins the Masters, there will be a ton of pressure on him until he does. The sooner he does it the better.

This. I actually see this as the biggest inhibitor to him winning it (not injury or a generic loss of form). I still think the balance of probabilities is just in his favour.

The only thing with the Novak point is that Rory doesn't have a Rafa in front of him.
He's done the hard part, especially with his US Open win; would think Augusta National is made for him if he has his "A" game, as Woods would say, and he's competitive there with his "B" game.

Everyone marvelled at Bubba's length there last year, but Rory's right up there and has a change of gear that none of his closest rivals still have.

Maybe reining in his aggressive play might help Rory a bit. It's great that he is aggressive, but it may cost him a few titles. On the 72nd hole on Sunday, I was surprised he chose to smack it over the OB after playing safe from the tee. I know he was right on the top of his game, but a slight mishit or a push could have caused a Van de Veldian type situation.

Best golfer in the game today ... so I have no reason to predict any one golfer ahead of him. Field, yes; but no single player.

George1507 wrote:Maybe reining in his aggressive play might help Rory a bit. It's great that he is aggressive, but it may cost him a few titles. On the 72nd hole on Sunday, I was surprised he chose to smack it over the OB after playing safe from the tee. I know he was right on the top of his game, but a slight mishit or a push could have caused a Van de Veldian type situation.

Mickelson was criticised for the same back in the days. He finished 2nd dozens of times because he was too agressive. Somehow he figured out how to close the tournaments as he matured.

However these type of players, such as Mickelson and Rory, excuse(d) themselves saying that's just how they play.

Without being an expert I think you need to know when not to be agressive rather than knowing when to be agressive. IMO leading with 2 or 3 on the last hole is obviuously not the right time to be agressive. Nobody should tell me that Rory (or vande Velde) couldn't have played 3 irons and taken a bogey on 18.

I'm sorry but there's not a pro on the planet that would get into a position to win a major and then try to make bogey on the last. Apart from anything else, you don't get into that position if that's in your mindset.

Rory probably felt that trying to hit the green was the safer shot - after all, if he hits it off line he's going to clear the ob and be in the rough or the grandstand. If he mishits a layup, the ob is much more in play.

To be fair the 18th was playing as a drivable par 5. If McIlroy plays it ultra-safe to make a guaranteed bogey, and watches Fowler alongside him it two big shots and hole an eagle putt, then it leaves a playoff and McIlroy looking a bit ridiculous.

The grandstand on the right of the 18th was in the OB, by the way

NedB-H wrote:To be fair the 18th was playing as a drivable par 5. If McIlroy plays it ultra-safe to make a guaranteed bogey, and watches Fowler alongside him it two big shots and hole an eagle putt, then it leaves a playoff and McIlroy looking a bit ridiculous.

I don't think it was a case of a guaranteed bogey. I think would be a likely par. As it was, Rory was introducing every possible number from 3 to 7.

It's hard to really see the angles on TV, but I think his play on the 18th was very astute and spot on.  He took an iron off the tee not for safety, but to make his second shot safer.  By laying up a bit further back he was able to go for the green area whilst almost playing away from the OOB (at least that's the way the angles looked on TV).  If he'd driven down closer to the turn he'd have been playing towards or at least parallel to the OOB.

Then the smart thing was to take a long enough iron for his second to make sure even a poorly struck shot would clear the OOB - as it happened he nailed it.  I think the way he played it was ensuring a 7 was really unlikely.

There was no clearing the OB on the right. The white stakes ran all the way up the grandstand. In the stand right was OB, so there was a fair amount of risk in his 2nd shot. Bearing in mind he ended up in the right hand side bunker, approx 10 yards in bounds, anything pushed or slightly mis hit could have been in trouble. But it wasnt

I couldn't really tell. All I know is that way too often a 2-3 shot lead is sqandered on 17th or 18th. Of course it's down to nerve, but players often excuse themselves saying they wanted to "stick to their game plan". BS IMO, keep the big stick in the bag, play it safe and take the bogey at worst.

To be fair there were plenty of bogeys around the 18th to 'bail' into so if he was confident of a decent strike then for him it was likely not too difficult a shot

Did Rory reach the par 5 18th with two irons?!!