Aviva Premiership 2014/15 Preview

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 07 Aug 2014, 11:24 am

Here's my take on how this seasons runners and riders will fare in the Aviva Premiership.

Bath Rugby

After narrowly missing out on the play offs last season and also imploding in the Amlin Cup Final, Bath will be desperate to make the play offs this time around. Sam Burgess is the big name signing, but questions remain about his transition from league, and what position he is likely to occupy, and until we actually see him on the pitch he will remain an unknown quantity. What we do know that Bath have is a huge set of forwards, and a pacy, clever set of backs. What they need to do is get them working as a cohesive unit, something which at times last season they failed to do. If they get it right, they will be very tough to beat, but as we've seen in both the distant and recent past with Bath, the wheel can come of in spectacular fashion, leaving their fans dissappointed and the trophy cabinet bare.

One to watch: Anthony Watson
Prediction: 3rd (will win the semi final, but lose in the big one at Twickenham)

Exeter Chiefs

The Chiefs will feel that they underachieved last season, based on the standard that they set themselves the season before. What has to be remembered is that in reality they are still a very new Premiership outfit and will have ups and downs. Recruitment this summer has been fairly low key, and I do worry with them that they may need a bit of an injection of fresh ideas to go with the great culture that Rob Baxter has built at the club, if they are going to kick on again, and I can see this season being fairly tough for them, although they should be too good to really get dragged into any dogfight at the wrong end of the table.

One to watch: Luke Cowan-Dickie
Prediction: 10th

Gloucester

After what was a sorry season last year there is a new Director of Rugby in place, as well as some big name signings as the club seek to return to the top half of the table this time around. They will need a massive on field improvement as some of last seasons performances were absolutely dire, especially in the scrum where they took regular hammerings. This has been addressed with the arrival of Richard Hibbard and John Afoa to bolster the front row, and you have to believe that those guys will bring about an improvement in fortune in that regard. If their pack can step up, they have some exciting backs, which include new signing James Hook, and they could be a real test for any team this time around.

One to watch: Elliott Stooke
Prediction: 6th

Harlequins

After a dodgy start last year Quins did just enough to make the play offs, but were very much second best in their semi final against Saracens. They have added Marland Yarde to their back line this time around, and have some very talented youngsters coming through the ranks. Strangely they still don't seem to have adequately replaced Ollie Kohn in the second row, and will have to rely on the mobility oftheir pack rather than getting into real scraps, as they appear slightly underpowered up front. They will be a fascinating watch, as they play an entertaining brand of rugby, but I just don't see them having quite enough forward power to drag themselves into the play offs this time around.

One to watch: Luke Wallace
Prediction: 5th

Leicester Tigers

Tigers will be smarting after missing out on a place in the final last year after that epic semi against fierce rivals Northampton Saints. They have recruited well, and look to be stronger this season. They will of course be one of the better packs, as although not always the biggest, they are generally the smartest and seem to find a way of negating their opponents strength. What will be the test for them is whether they can get their back line really playing. The key man for them may actually be Geordan Murphy, and if he can get the talent they have from 9 to 15 working in harmony then they will be a real force this season.

One to watch: Freddie Burns
Prediction: 1st (Champions after winning the play offs)

London Irish

New training facilities, a strengthening of the backroom staff and some additions in the pack should see an improved level of performance from Irish this season. Losing Yarde and O'Connor potentially weakens the back line, but with a better platform from the forwards should give the guys who are there a chance to shine. With a tough start on paper Irish will need to hit the ground running and pick up some points against the big guns if they are to avoid being in a 3rd successive relegation scrap. Having said that, the best performances from Irish last year were against Tigers, Sarries, Saints and Quins, so they should take some confidence from that and a good start could see them surprise one or two people this time around.

One to watch: Gerard Ellis
Prediction: 8th

London Welsh

Welsh did fantastically well to gain promotion by beating Bristol, and have gone out since on a huge recruitment drive. The likes of Piri Weepu, Dean Schofield and Olly Barkley will bring lots of experience, but there has to be question marks over how quickly you can integrate 25 new signings into a cohesive unit. They will need to invoke the same sort of team ethos that Exeter had when they came up if they are to make a better fist of things this time. Ultimately I think they will be a better side than when they were promoted last, but I don't think they'll have enough to stay up this time either.

One to watch: Olly Barkley
Prediction: 12th (Relegated)

Newcastle Falcons

Much is being made of the new 4G pitch at Kingston Park and the potential for a change in style from Falcons, but unless they sign a new 10 who plays a more expansive game, that could all be just a dream for their fans. They will of course be well organised, as any team coached by Dean Richards is, and have bolstered their squad with some shrewd signings, but they lack the quality of some of the other squads, although they have plenty of players with what appears to be huge potential. This, I think will be another season of just scraping through and more quality will need to be brought in next summer if they are to kick on and start climbing the table.

One to watch: Alessana Tuilagi
Prediction: 11th

Northampton Saints

The Champions have been pretty quiet in terms of signings this summer, but have a strong squad already and haven't lost anyone either. They also have some talented youngsters coming through and will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season. Much will again rest on Stephen Myler putting their powerful pack in the right areas, where the likes of North and Foden will surely finish the chances they create. Whilst I 'm not sure they have the depth to fight successfully in the Premiership and the Champions Cup, I think they will want to retain their title, and will reach the play offs comfortably.

One to watch: Alex Waller
Prediction: 2nd (Losing semi finalists)

Sale Sharks

Sale were the surprise package last season, but there have been a few guys who were pretty key to that who have left over the summer. They have made some decent signings, and I can see Nathan Hines having a big influence there. It is unlikely that Steve Diamond is going to change the formula which served them so well last year, and they will be a pack that is niggly and difficult to play against, with the backs only really coming in to things when they get anywhere near to the try line. I can see another season of being comfortably mid table for Sale.

One to watch: Danny Cipriani
Prediction: 7th

Saracens

Sarries will be smarting after losing 2 finals last season, and will be desperate for success this time around. They have a big squad, and plenty of quality throughout it, but I wonder who much going into battle without their leader Steve Borthwick will affect them. They also need to continue to evolve their style of play, which they have been doing over the past 18 months, in order to keep teams from working them out. They will undoubtedly be at the top end of the table, but I can see their European obsession impacting a little more on their Premiership aspirations this time around and I don't think a home semi final is a given this time around.

One to watch: Will Fraser
Prediction: 4th (Losing semi finalists)

Wasps

It was a bit of a hit and miss season last time around for Wasps, and you were never quite sure which Wasps side would turn up. They have some undoubted quality in their squad, but at times just don't look like a team with much of a plan. They seem to be heavily reliant on individual bits of brilliance to win games rather than a collective effort and this in turn means they are inconsistent. If they want to improve on last seasons league placing they will need to find this consistency, but I'm not sure that they will, ad can see another mid table finish this time around, but in a slightly lower position than last year.

One to watch: Christian Wade
Prediction: 9th

by Geordie Thu 07 Aug 2014, 11:48 am

Good write up Ozzy...

Ill take that write up for us...keeps everyones expectations of us down until we start putting teams to the sword Wink

One to watch would be:
Barrow or McGuigan Or Kibirige Or maybe Dan Temm.

by SirBurger Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:14 pm

My take on things:

Bath: I think they will continue to improve as a squad and it will be really interesting to see how Burgess goes. The player I am excited about following the progress of is Ollie Devoto who I think could be a solution to England's problems at inside centre. The Bath pack is mean and powerful, but I am not sure they quite have enough to reach the final. Prediction: 4th

Exeter: Same as Ozzy said really. Despite the LV success last season I think they have stagnated a little. Fresh impetus is probably required in the shape of some strong signings. Low and Waldrom are decent acquisitions but I don't think will make much difference to the overall quality. Prediction: 10th

Gloucester: They appear to have finally sorted out their issues on the coaching side, but then again there have been false dawns before. Big name signings have also arrived, but I worry about how much Hibbard and Afoa will actually be able to play and whether Hook will really be the saviour at 10 that is hoped for. The Aviva is such a tough league that I don't think there will be an overnight transformation. Prediction: 7th

Harlequins: Have added real firepower out wide in the shape of Yarde and Tikoirotuma but as Ozzy pointed out have lost a few guys in the pack without really replacing them. The likes of Care, Evans, Robshaw and Brown should give them enough to take 5th place, but I don't think they will make the play-offs this year. Prediction: 5th

Leicester: Their recruitment has probably been the strongest in the league this summer and they have at least two very good options in every position on the field. I can't see beyond them as champions. Prediction: Champions

London Irish: Yarde and JOC will be big losses, but the pack is so much stronger this year that I think we will be a tough side to beat. A bit of class is probably lacking in certain areas, but I am happy with most of the squad now. Prediction: 9th

London Welsh: Weepu has the potential to be a great signing, as does Barkley. However, most of the other signings are journeymen and while Welsh have obviously fostered a great team spirit and will once again be a very tough side to beat, I think they lack the overall quality required to save them from the drop. Prediction: 12th

Newcastle: Some good recruitment, but the weaknesses outlined by Ozzy remain. To be honest I am not overly inspired by Dean Richards and his selections often seem confusing. Prediction: 11th

Northampton: The current Champions will as ever be a very competitive outfit. The lack of recruitment concerns me though as every other club has looked to continue to evolve and Saints were by no means the perfect side last year. Prediction: 3rd

Sale: A great campaign for Diamond's lads last season. I think Europe will take its toll though and despite the new acquisitions I think they will slip a few places. Prediction: 8th

Saracens: Figallo and Hamilton are two astute buys who should offset the loss of Borthwick and Stevens to some extent. They will be desperate to get something this season after last year's heartbreak and I can see them challenging all the way as usual. Prediction: 2nd

Wasps: I think they still lack consistency but Leuia and Davies are two of the best signings made this summer. The pack looks to have a great deal of depth and the back line is probably the quickest in the league. Barring any major injuries I think they will sneak a top 6 spot. Prediction: 6th

The following new arrivals to the Premiership should all make an exciting impact:

1. Di Marchi - SAL
2. Ghiraldini - LEI
3. Afoa - GLO
4. Hines - SAL
5. Davies - WAS
6. Furno - NEW
7. Barbieri - LEI
8. Burgess - BAT

9. Laidlaw - GLO
10. Hook - GLO
11. Tikoirotuma - HAR
12. Leuia - WAS
13. Griffin - LIR
14. Tuilagi - NEW
15. McLean - SAL

Bench: Hibbard (GLO), Court (LIR), Figallo (SAR), Hamilton (SAR), Pearce (LEI), Weepu (LWE), Jackson (WAS), Loamanu (LEI)

by bluestonevedder Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:48 pm

May I suggest that Exeter's player to watch is now Naqelevuki who is possibly in line to switch to the backrow?? That could be mighty interesting

by formerly known as Sam Thu 07 Aug 2014, 1:06 pm

He should make a good 8 for the Chiefs.

Feeling pretty good about the Tigers signings and squad. Not sure about Burns being the one to watch as I think for a good portion of the season he'll play second fiddle to Williams.

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 07 Aug 2014, 1:58 pm

For me he's the one to watch, as at Gloucester he always had the ready made excuse of playing behind a poor pack. Now, he has no excuses. If he fails to perform it will down to him. I am intrigued to see how he goes.

by formerly known as Sam Thu 07 Aug 2014, 3:00 pm

I think he'll be one of those players that disappears into the Tigers machine and then re emerges months later a changed player adapted to the system. Well that or a Ryan Lamb and will get his bags packed mid way through the first season. It certainly is make or break for him, the inconsistent genius thing he has going won't be tolerated. It'll be hard work and creation for the team.

by Chunky Norwich Thu 07 Aug 2014, 3:01 pm

Can't wait for this to start. IMO it overtook the TOP14 last season as the best league in the world.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 08 Aug 2014, 7:20 pm

If we made the Playoffs last year, we should be able to make it every year. No way we have as bad a season injury wise as last season

by ChequeredJersey Fri 08 Aug 2014, 7:21 pm

Really depends if Matthews can step up though. Would have loved to sign Lam or Gough ahead of Bristol

by **LondonTiger** Fri 08 Aug 2014, 7:59 pm

ChequeredJersey wrote:If we made the Playoffs last year, we should be able to make it every year. No way we have as bad a season injury wise as last season

Oh it could quite easily be worse, injury wise. Plus I would be amazed if Easter can have another season like last, being a year older and a year slower. evans will be another year older, and more fragile physically and from the outside no back-up of the required ability seems obvious. Add in that Care, Robshaw and Brown will feature less and things could be interesting.

For me Sarries are the only team that i would stake serious money on making top 4 due to the size of the squad. Leicester should as again they have the squad size to cover when injuries and internationals come a knocking, but do they have the class to win the biggest games - not sure yet. We certainly need to see an improvement on last year. It would be a shock if Saints did not make it - but their squad could fail to cope with absentees.

Bath flattered to deceive last year. with the pack they had and the skills behind they should have made the play-offs. They will be anxious to improve their results. Gloucester have the makings of a stunningly good squad, but new management will have to gel new players very quickly.

For me, Sarries to top the table again, Leicester to secure the other home semi - with Saints and Bath rounding out the top 4.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 08 Aug 2014, 8:05 pm

Didn't Brown and Robshaw play every England match last year anyway? We'll see on Easter and Nev, think people said that about both last season too. And if we ever end up with a second row of Robshaw-Easter or centre pairing of Grimoldby-Monye again I will be amazed. I think you underestimate quite how injury struck last season was! And of the players we have lost since then, Kennedy didn't have a good year and was injured all the time anyway, Smith is replaced with Yarde and Tiko and hopefully a fit Walker and less frequently injured Ugo and TW or a fit Chisholm (any will do). Sackey was desperate emergency cover, see above. Mo was mostly injured, but Trayfoot will have to step up.

My main prayer is that Nev and Botica aren't both forced (by lack of other options) to play whilst neither are fit like last season and that Lowe stays uninjured. Given that it's Lowe the latter will be a miracle though

by ChequeredJersey Fri 08 Aug 2014, 8:09 pm

Seriously, 65 mins of a Grimoldby (3rd choice 18 year old FH) and Monye in the centres is a nightmare I'll never forget

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 9:53 am

Stop acting like quints were the only team with major injury problems, because they weren't.

by **Ozzy3213** Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:09 am

Yeah CJ, bleating about injuries is the sole preserve of Tigers fans don't you know! Wink

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:19 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:Yeah CJ, bleating about injuries is the sole preserve of Tigers fans don't you know!

I know tigers had some injury problems too, it was in the papers in every single tigers story or match report. We don't have a very big squad, which is a choice largely enforced by the cost of living in west London and Surrey requiring a larger average salary. We can't cover for injuries to the same degree as Tigers, our senior squad last year had 35 players to Tigers' 45

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:23 am

Damn straight and tbh he has mentioned it about 50 times (maybe a slight exgareration) in the last 2 months.

We tigers fans only mention it 45 times.

And he has te cheek to say we don't feel it because of our squad size which is still small compared to saracens and French clubs.

We had like 13 (can't remember) different centre combinations last season and that's not including the LV cup.

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:36 am

Tigers also having injuries doesn't take away from us having injuries, and what I said about squad sizes are still true. It is a choice by COS to have quality over quantity as we can only afford one and stay in Twickenham though I'm disappointed we have spent so much money at wing but none improving the pack and are so reliant on young players stepping up there.

You shouldn't take what I've said above as a poke at Tigers, just as a statement of my belief that it is unlikely we have as many troubles in certain positions this year as last year and I can't see us doing or at least starting worse than last year. I am relatively confident of top 4. I am not trying to imply that Tigers are in any way luckier or less deserving that Quins and I'm sure they'll do better too with fewer injuries jn the midfield and Croft and Cole etc back. Hug

Also, I'm fairly sure I've mentioned it 3 times in 2 months. During the season I may have mentioned it a bit, to be fair, but mostly we've talked about it to explain to our fellow Quins fans why the club "isn't performing" when they start whining and asking for Conor's head (madness)

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:37 am

There are armies with a small squad size compared to Saracens and Toulon

by **Ozzy3213** Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:38 am

35 players in your squad!!! You don't know you're born you lot. Luxury that'd be I tell ya.

You want to know about injuries, get yerselves down to Irish, we'll tell ya about injuries!!!

Wink

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:41 am

Nah, I'm scared to. Because I know the next place te conversation will go is having other clubs poach your best players. And then I'll probably get lynched, with no Bath fans to deflect it on

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:46 am

I'll give my preview thoughts in a sec

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:55 am

CJ you know all my comments were with tongue firmly in cheek.

Perhaps you need to learn to be more ruthless in your contracts maybe. Like Robshaw he is past his best an rightly stripped of his captaincy so a pay cut is in order.
Wink

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:00 am

Robshaw doesn't play for any money, mate, he plays for free on the arrangement that as long as he does Lancaster will pretend he's a real 7

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:02 am

Makes sense I always wondered why quints let him have the number7 shirt when he is clearly a 8.

I am just hoping that england can still manage with robshaws non existent breakdown work.

by **Ozzy3213** Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:06 am

The 'poaching' of our best players is fully down to us. We have been poor internally as a club for a number of years now and it is no surprise that our best talent has upped and left. That has been and is still being addressed by the new board and I think we will do better at holding on to our youngsters going forwards.

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:10 am

I hate teams that poach. Mind you regard LI I don't think we have poached anyone other than Gibson.

by **Ozzy3213** Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:16 am

Gibson I wouldn't say was poached. He was out of the side and I'm not convinced that he was particularly highly rated by Brian Smith. I don't think Smiffy really wanted to keep him and wasn't unhappy to see him go.

To be fair, the only ones we've lost that annoy me are the ones who went to Bath, and only really because I feel like Toby Booth screwed us over. Garvey and Watson I would love to have back, but I'm not so fussed on the others.

by ChequeredJersey Sat 09 Aug 2014, 11:24 am

A team poached from Irish 15:

15- Does Delon count?
14- Yarde
13- Joseph
12-
11- Watson
10-
9-
8- Sisi
7- Steffon?
6- Gibson
5- Garvey
4-
3- Lahiff
2-
1- Corbisiero

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 12:17 pm

Guess although not poached you can have Bowden @ 12/10

by SirBurger Sat 09 Aug 2014, 12:55 pm

Adam Thompstone? Although again we were stacked with wingers then and I'm not sure he was top of the list of players we wanted to keep.

I may have got this completely wrong but I think Will Spencer the young Bath Lock was originally one of ours, as was Brett Herron. Hopefully the exodus has stopped with Marland.

by Welly Sat 09 Aug 2014, 12:57 pm

thompstone wasn't offered a contract in fact Leicester only took Thompstone because he was cheap as the only the championship teams were intertied in him. (well that what I heard from some one in the know at Tigers).

Was Homer's brother in irish before Bath?

by **Ozzy3213** Sat 09 Aug 2014, 1:01 pm

No, I don't think Will Homer was ever with us, I think he's always been at Bath.

by yappysnap Sun 10 Aug 2014, 1:09 pm

I'm assuming there'll be little change next year:

1. Sarries
2. Tigers
Saints
Bath
Quins
Sale
Glos
Irish
Wasps
Exeter
Welsh
Falcons

Sarries and Tigers with the big squads to take control at the top of the table, Bath and Saints with huge packs to do enough to stay clues behind and the Quins, Sale and Glos using innovation and fair weather rugby to get in close.

by **LondonTiger** Sun 10 Aug 2014, 5:20 pm

ChequeredJersey wrote:Didn't Brown and Robshaw play every England match last year anyway?

Yes, but they also played a hell of a lot of games for Quins. (24 and 21 respectively). COS has indicated that they will feature less this season. Brown can be covered, Robshaw less so. Biggest loss though will be Care. With Evans in decline (and at times last season he was poor) Care for the last two years has been the attacking fulcrum for Quins.

by Geordie Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:05 pm

yappysnap wrote:I'm assuming there'll be little change next year:

1. Sarries
2. Tigers
Saints
Bath
Quins
Sale
Glos
Irish
Wasps
Exeter
Welsh
Falcons

Sarries and Tigers with the big squads to take control at the top of the table, Bath and Saints with huge packs to do enough to stay clues behind and the Quins, Sale and Glos using innovation and fair weather rugby to get in close.

So you think we'll be behind LW this season? Be interesting to see.

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:39 pm

Sarries squad: 40 senior 6 academy
Tigers squad: 42 senior 9 academy

Tigers reported injury crisis when they lose a few games 96 senior players 15 academy players 9 from the mini's and the tea lady

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:41 pm

london welsh 48 senior players!!!!!!....nothing about academy players

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:55 pm

Welsh don't have an academy.

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:55 pm

Northampton 37 senior 13 academy

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:57 pm

Bath 38 senior 8 academy

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:00 pm

Quins 35 senior 11 academy

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:02 pm

so Bath Quins and Sarries have exactly the same amount of players at their disposal, so can we stop the my squads smaller than yours rubbish

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:02 pm

Where are you getting the figures from knackered knees?

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:05 pm

initally Wiki(i know i know) but then on the club sites just to make sure numbers match. Have to say wiki is spot on and looks like it gets updated regularly, has all of london welsh's new players updated

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:07 pm

I've just looked at Tigers website and they have 45 in the senior squad and 9 in the development squad, not 42 seniors as you had stated.

by Knackeredknees Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:10 pm

sorry probabily a typo on my part, been in work since 7am.......bigger than most then

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:15 pm

I've also just had a look at our squad (Irish) on Wikipedia and it is well out of date.

by ChequeredJersey Sun 10 Aug 2014, 7:22 pm

Academy is inherently different from senior squad, if they were ready for senior squad they'd have a senior contract, I think it's disingenuous to pretend that 40(+6) = 35(+11),

by yappysnap Sun 10 Aug 2014, 8:00 pm

Especially when we Quins use our academy boys early, so any that still are under the academy umbrella will be really new. As opposed to ex internationals etc on the senior squads.

by Sponsored content