How do we think the 4 Welsh regions will do this time ?

With the season almost upon us, it got me thinking, how do we think our four prized assets will do this up and coming season ? I have been looking through the squads and I have been following what has been going on in Welsh rugby over the last couple of months with great interest, and the only shining light I can see for the regions this season is the fact that the Blues have made much needed coaching changes and they have recruited well in areas they have needed to, so I have decided to do a region by region analysis for the up and coming season:-

Ospreys

Squad:- http://www.pro12rugby.com/teams/ospreys/squad.php

To be honest I can see a long season ahead for the Ospreys, unlike the other regions they have note made any significant changes to their squad and in Steve Tandy I do not think they have the head coach with enough know how to get Ospreys out of their European group or into the playoffs, although in players like Alyn Wyn Jones and Dan Biggar they do have leaders with the ability to be world class and perhaps they could lift the likes of Tuperic, Ashley Beck, Ryan Bevington, Andrew Bishop and Hanno Dirksen to a level where the younger players, which there is a lot of, will look up to and try and emulate, for me though the Ospreys do not look strong enough in the scrum, and although I do not think losing Adam Jones is such a bad thing, he had to go some time, his knowledge that he could have passed down to the younger front rowers could be a bigger loss than him actually not playing, so for me the Ospreys only chance for silverware this season will be in the league and that will not be easy for them.

League:- 4/5
Europe:- 3rd in their group

Cardiff Blues

Squad:- http://www.cardiffblues.com/rugby/first_team_squad.php

This will be a very interesting season for the Cardiff Blues, they have recruited, and recruited well, both on the squad and the coaching side, for me anybody other than who they had coaching them last year would be an improvement. I now think that the Blues have a front row who can compete with any side, and will be looking to get on top of most teams in the Pro 12, they have two decent tight heads in Mitchell and Adam Jones with players like Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Kristein Dacey and Scott Andrews all competing for the starting places, they will also have Anscome and Patchell fighting for the no. 10 jersey and Knoyle and Williams fighting for the no. 9 jersey, all in all I think this is the best we will see from the Blues since they last won the Amlin cup and there is no reason why they should not get to the final again this coming season, at least I can see one Welsh region making a fist of things this time around.

League:- 2/3
Europe:- Semi or Final perhaps winning it.

Scarlets

Squad:- http://www.scarlets.co.uk/eng/rugby/people.php

The Scarlets, well what do we have here, some good players, Samson Lee, Scott Williams, Liam Williams, Gareth Davies, but can Wayne Pivac get these boys playing to their potential, unlike Simon Easterby ? For me I think it is high time that the Scarlets stopped being the middle of the road region and start making waves around the league and in Europe, they have some real passionate fans, and some real decent players, they can go away to Northampton one week and show them their rear ends, then get done over by the same side at home the following week, for me I think they will be fighting it out with the Ospreys for the final playoff place in the league and they will come runners up in their European group, which will be an improvement but I still think that they do not have the coaches to take them onto the next step.

League:- 4/5
Europe:- 2nd in their group

Dragons

Squad:- http://www.newportgwentdragons.com/Teams/Squad/Dragons

Well, this one is quite interesting, for me the Dragons have the best coaches out of all the four Welsh regions, they have also made some very astute signings, bringing back Aled Brew, Lee Byrne and Andy Powell and a ground where at times seems very intimidating, but the Dragons seem to never have a platform to play with, the forwards are just not up to it at times, they are looking good for a team that looks to be improving but that is the thing, improvement is all they are looking for at the moment, they should get to the later stages of the second tier European competition, but they really do need to be aiming to finish as high in the league as they possibly can, if the Dragons get some wins under their belt early doors then they could go on and finish around the play-offs, and if they are still in contention for a play-off place towards the end of the season then that would equate to a good season for them, but for me they could well fall just short.

League:- 8-6
Europe:- Quarter finals

So, there you go, my first article in about four months, feel free to agree/disagree and debate any differences you have with me, all are welcome on my article and a good debate we should have over this, I think I have been fair and realistic, but feel free to point out anything you do not agree with.

Welcome back & cheers!

I think that the Regions are fairly evenly matched & it is good for the league to have more competitive teams, however, a lot of changes to squads & also the difficulty in assessing how the dual contracts will pan out mean for me any Region will do well to make the top 4.

Personally I'd like one of the regions to make the top 3 but think it unlikely.

Good luck.

None will make the top four,
 
Cardiff to be ranked the top Welsh Region followed by Llanelli.
Ospreys and Newport will fight it out for bottom spot.
 
I'm looking forward to the Marmite (Pro12)

If you're predictions are correct that'd mean 3 Welsh regions finishing in the top five edging out 2 of Leinster, Glasgow, Munster or Ulster from that group. Can't see it happening.

I can see the Blues finishin in the play-offs, perhaps 2nd or 3rd, I can see Munster struggling to get in the playoffs aswell, I am not saying they will not, but they will have a fight on their hands.

Scarlets don't have Simon Easterby as Coach now, he has Joined the Irish national side as Forwards coach, head coach is now Wayne Pivac.

2ndtimeround wrote:Scarlets don't have Simon Easterby as Coach now, he has Joined the Irish national side as Forwards coach, head coach is now Wayne Pivac.

Sorry, yes you are correct, I was just looking at their website and it wasn't updated yet, still can he be a big difference ?

2ndtimeround wrote:Scarlets don't have Simon Easterby as Coach now, he has Joined the Irish national side as Forwards coach, head coach is now Wayne Pivac.

i have edited it now.

The changes in the coaching set up are pretty big at PYS this year, Pivac has come in as head coach but we have also lost Danny Wilson from full time to part time scrum coach and Brad Harrington the fitness coach has gone, only really Mark Jones as skills coach remains unchanged and he was the one most fans would of like to have seen changed as he was been blamed for all the kicking aimlessly that we did. Only time will tell I guess but coaching wise the players are sounding very complimentary about the changes Pivac is introducing, Ulster at home 1st up will tell us more I guess.
I like the look of the changes at all bar the Ospreys and hope all 4 welsh regions will be more competitive this season, it would be great to reach April with them all still having a mathematical
chance of a top 6 finish.

I can't be bothered to type it all again, so I'm copying and pasting a couple of posts from the article about whether the Ospreys will be the worst-placed region this term:

Where we (Dragons) have come unstuck against the Os in the past has been a) their pack being stronger than ours, and b) Matthew Morgan running rings around us. (All this is away from home - we have a good record against them at Rodney Parade.) Now I don't see their pack being as strong this season, plus ours surely won't be as weak, and they don't have Matthew Morgan any more. I'll eat humble pie happily enough of they finish top of the regions again, but I reckon they're there to be shot at. (And for what it's worth, I don't see the Blues being the all-conquering powerhouse some people seem to think they'll be this coming season.)

I suppose the unknown with (the Scarlets) is how the new coach will bed in. Easterby was a Scarlet and knew the ethos of the region; Pivac has a great record but there's no knowing how he'll go in charge at Parc y Scarlets. Same with Mark Hammett at the Blues: great record in New Zealand, but no offence to the Blues players, he was coaching New Zealanders then.

I think each will do better in the league bar Ospreys. Also, Ospreys and Scarlets will finish last in their euro groups. Dragons and especially Blues can be competitive in the CC.

I think for us (The Blues) the first three games will tell a lot. We've done some decent recruiting but our coach hasnt had long to work with the squad. We have a (dare i say it after last year) straight forward first game away to Zebre which we should be targeting a win. The next two games we have Glasgow and Ulster at home back to back. Two of last seasons top four. Honestly for this to be a great season we need to win both. We have to make the Arms Park a fortress if we're going to do anything this season. It's ambitious, but i've watched two "building/development" seasons now. So. 3/3 from our first three games please.

I'm feeling optimistic for Cardiff this year I think they will surprise a few.

I hope you're right. Be nice for us to get some decent rugby under our belt and get a few more people to watch. That HC Semi seems so far away now.

Wow The Dragons just beat the English champion 27-25!
Saints fielded a pretty strong team too.

Dragons could well be the surprise package.

The early indications are positive for Dragons. Can't read too much into these friendlies, but our scrum seems pretty solid and that is going to be good for our backs who can hopefully do some damage now. Powell and Landman look very useful signings, as do the two new props.

That was the biggest positive for me (other than actually winning, which isn't too shabby): our pack stood up to a first-choice Northampton pack, which you'd never have predicted last season (or seasons). In the first half Saints had plenty of scrums and lineouts in our 22, but we largely held our own. That's (potentially) huge, when you think our first Pro12 match is against Connacht, who manshamed us up front last season.

I remember last year we won all our pre-season games, and opening fixtures against Ulster and Scarlets. Things went downhill later on, so I'm not going to get excited just yet. Heck of a win though, Saints are an awesome team.

Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

I did.

Every season, since the dawn of regionalism, we have heard "the Blues have to be considered the dark horses this season" and bar one or two seasons (HEC run, and Amlin win) they have not really made too much of a statement to prove otherwise. It is still early days in the season, however I have to admit I am surprised by how well the Ospreys are going, and how poorly the Scarlets are doing.

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

Wise men like SS plus those not worthy like myself plus those who can spot the bleeding obvious.

Cardiff Dave wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

Wise men like SS plus those not worthy like myself plus those who can spot the bleeding obvious.

With the players they have, they should be doing a hell of a lot better than 10th in the league though, if it were not for the woefull Italian sides then the Blues would be bottom.

They have played the best teams in the league though as well (Leinster, Glasgow and Ulster).

The Saint wrote:They have played the best teams in the league though as well (Leinster, Glasgow and Ulster).

They did not score a single try against Glasgow or Ulster, and lets be honest, Leinster are not looking at the races yet.

LordDowlais wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

Wise men like SS plus those not worthy like myself plus those who can spot the bleeding obvious.

With the players they have, they should be doing a hell of a lot better than 10th in the league though, if it were not for the woefull Italian sides then the Blues would be bottom.

They shouldn't be expected to be in the title race with the players they have.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

Wise men like SS plus those not worthy like myself plus those who can spot the bleeding obvious.

With the players they have, they should be doing a hell of a lot better than 10th in the league though, if it were not for the woefull Italian sides then the Blues would be bottom.

They shouldn't be expected to be in the title race with the players they have.

Gethin Jenkins
Adam Jones
Matthew Rees
Rhys Patchell
Alex Cuthbert
Sam Warburton
Josh Navidi
Tavis Knoyle
Lloyd Williams

Those few players alone should be enough to see you doing better than 10th at least.

Why are Lloyd Williams and Tavis Knoyle on the list? Two worst scrum-halves in Wales.

The Saint wrote:Why are Lloyd Williams and Tavis Knoyle on the list? Two worst scrum-halves in Wales.

Coz LD is a Merthyr boy mun and i've known quite a few.

I don't think either are from Merthyr though?

The Saint wrote:I don't think either are from Merthyr though?

Excellent.
What I meant was, LD is from Merthyr therefore has a distinct Merthyr type opinion. LD knows what I mean.

Cardiff Dave wrote:

The Saint wrote:I don't think either are from Merthyr though?

Excellent.
What I meant was, LD is from Merthyr therefore has a distinct Merthyr type opinion. LD knows what I mean.

Yeah, I know what you mean, also, I am giving the Blues one last chance, I am going over to Swansea to watch them play the Ospreys on the 12th with my old man, if they put in another non try, no imagination, abject performance, that's it, my father can go and watch them on his own, I will not be wasting anymore of my money on them, and it's Munster in Cardiff after that, so it will be a good game to miss.

We have Grenoble on the 18th before Munster on the 1st. I'm still hopeful. I really hope this Argie is used at FB. Saying that. The O's are looking good. Will be a tough game. I'd just like to see some passion from some of the team. It's far to casual out there for my liking.

Coleman wrote:We have Grenoble on the 18th before Munster on the  1st. I'm still hopeful. I really hope this Argie is used at FB. Saying that. The O's are looking good. Will be a tough game. I'd just like to see some passion from some of the team. It's far to casual out there for my liking.

In fairness, it was passion that cost you the LBP out in Dublin. It is early doors yet, until we get to around Xmas you can never really have too much of a clue of what a team is really up to.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Coleman wrote:We have Grenoble on the 18th before Munster on the  1st. I'm still hopeful. I really hope this Argie is used at FB. Saying that. The O's are looking good. Will be a tough game. I'd just like to see some passion from some of the team. It's far to casual out there for my liking.

In fairness, it was passion that cost you the LBP out in Dublin.  It is early doors yet, until we get to around Xmas you can never really have too much of a clue of what a team is really up to.

I think it was more down to the fact that Cardiff Blues either, do not like tackling their opponents so do not bother, or they do not know how to tackle their opponents so do not bother, the amount of Blues players I see just falling off the opposition, ALL THE BLEEDING TIME, is just so frustrating I do not know why I bother wasting my money on them.

LordDowlais wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Coleman wrote:We have Grenoble on the 18th before Munster on the  1st. I'm still hopeful. I really hope this Argie is used at FB. Saying that. The O's are looking good. Will be a tough game. I'd just like to see some passion from some of the team. It's far to casual out there for my liking.

In fairness, it was passion that cost you the LBP out in Dublin.  It is early doors yet, until we get to around Xmas you can never really have too much of a clue of what a team is really up to.

I think it was more down to the fact that Cardiff Blues either, do not like tackling their opponents so do not bother, or they do not know how to tackle their opponents so do not bother, the amount of Blues players I see just falling off the opposition, ALL THE BLEEDING TIME, is just so frustrating I do not know why I bother wasting my money on them.

Preaching to the choir about missed tackles mate.

LordDowlais wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Oh well, four weeks into the season and it looks like my predictions are a little skewed, although in fairness to me I did reckon one of the big Irish teams might miss out. Who would have thought the Blues would have been floundering so badly though.

Wise men like SS plus those not worthy like myself plus those who can spot the bleeding obvious.

With the players they have, they should be doing a hell of a lot better than 10th in the league though, if it were not for the woefull Italian sides then the Blues would be bottom.

They shouldn't be expected to be in the title race with the players they have.

Gethin Jenkins
Adam Jones
Matthew Rees
Rhys Patchell
Alex Cuthbert
Sam Warburton
Josh Navidi
Tavis Knoyle
Lloyd Williams

Those few players alone should be enough to see you doing better than 10th at least.

Three of those make up an ageing front row. 2009 is a long time ago now. Warburton will be missing more often than not. They don't know what they're doing with Patchell. Cuthbert can be superb but is hit and miss. The scrum halves are poor. It's not a great squad and I don't know why people were predicting great things from them.

For every Rhys Patchell and Corey Allen there is a Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans.

Without question we have some top players, the problem lies in the capability of those around them which is just not up to scratch.

gcBlues wrote:For every Rhys Patchell and Corey Allen there is a Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans.

Without question we have some top players, the problem lies in the capability of those around them which is just not up to scratch.

Guys, come on, the Blues are better than 10th in the league with the players they have, and they should be doing a lot better against Glasgow and Ulster at Cardiff, for them two sides to stop the Blues scoring a single try is beyond the joke. Also, it must be the mindset, but every player in a Blues shirt just drops off tackles.

To some degree, all the regions suffer that same problem. Strength in depth comes with a price tag and we don't have the money.

gcBlues wrote:For every Rhys Patchell and Corey Allen there is a Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans.

Without question we have some top players, the problem lies in the capability of those around them which is just not up to scratch.

For a team to be successful they need the Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans, players that may not set the world alight but will turn up and give it their all. The 'underrated' players are what keeps the team ticking over while the stars are missing for huge sections of the season.

The Scarlets best signings over the last few years have been Deacon Manu and Gareth Maule, solid enough and reliable. And IMO their absence this season is noticeable already.

SS,

That's so true and I think all Regions have them, some maybe on the fringe Internationals but they are there all the time week in week out.

Dragons - We have the likes of Ashley Smith (just wish he would stay injury free), Cudd, Coombs, Lewis Evans and even Sidoli up until retirement.

SS, turning up and giving their all doesn't make mediocre players any less mediocre. Regardless of effort and commitment, some players just aren't good enough.

Exactly. Though the two SS just listed were actually decent players.

They were. I was thinking of the two Blues players.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

gcBlues wrote:For every Rhys Patchell and Corey Allen there is a Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans.

Without question we have some top players, the problem lies in the capability of those around them which is just not up to scratch.

For a team to be successful they need the Gareth Davies and Gavin Evans, players that may not set the world alight but will turn up and give it their all. The 'underrated' players are what keeps the team ticking over while the stars are missing for huge sections of the season.

The Scarlets best signings over the last few years have been Deacon Manu and Gareth Maule, solid enough and reliable. And IMO their absence this season is noticeable already.

But that's the thing, the two i listed aren't solid or reliable. GD cannot tackle and has already cost us a losing bonus point at leinster and GE is just downright attrocious, he may have been something at the scarlets but since he's come to us he's just been a body in the shirt. No attacking threat whatsoever. Maybe it's harsh but compair him to the centres we've had over the years and you can see he just isn't in the same league:

Shanklin/Robinson
Shanklin/Roberts
Roberts/Laulala

Back when shanklin/robinson were pairing, if one got injured Stcherbina would step in and there wouldn't be a dip because he was solid, we just don't have that right now and it shows when GE play, people geniunely groan. Especially when phil davies made him vice captain, what was going on there!

Just out of interest why is Evans being so slated by blues fans? I didn't see him being any less or more a player than Daff Hewitt.

I agree he doesn't look as good as his pre injury Scarlets form but I didn't think that he was a hindrance...?

I think it's because since he's been here he's brought zero attacking threat, Hewitt while not being spectacular will at least get us over the gain line.

gcBlues wrote:I think it's because since he's been here he's brought zero attacking threat, Hewitt while not being spectacular will at least get us over the gain line.

Also, he's been injured for about three quarters of his time there.

Predicably given the problems in Welsh Rugby and the exodus of top players; Dragons, Blues and Scarlets are stuggling. The big suprise has been the Ospreys who are performing far better than expected, winning is a habit and Ospreys have the habit. The test will be when the internationals are away and if they suffer injuries.

The Blues have the players but they are not performing for the new coach at present but expect them to get better. Similarly with the Scarlets but their squad is not as strong particularly in the backs where they were traditionally strong. The Dragons have a stronger pack and some great young backs, Amos, Tyler Morgan and others are stars of the future but at present they are simply not clicking.

Could be a long hard season for the Welsh Regions.

I think the Ospreys have always struggled in Europe though, they seem to be capable of winning the Pro12 but always choke on the bigger stage.

The Blues have been surprising so far, I expected more from them but I appreciate a new coaching setup and new squad require time to gel so I wont write them off yet, they do seem to perform better in the European cup than Pro12 as well (Beating Toulon at home and doing the double over Glasgow).