Aviva Premiership Round Two

Well round one is done, and the Aviva Premiership is most definitely back.  With over 300 points scored, 34 tries and 3 hat tricks, it was an exciting weekends rugby, that began on Friday night with Saints putting 50+ points on Gloucester, and finished on Sunday afternoon with the Chiefs doing the same to hapless London Welsh.  Sandwiched in between Bath got themselves up and running with a win on the road at Sale, and Tigers completed a comprehensive victory over the Falcons at Welford Road.  At Twickenham, the first game f the double header was great spectacle and fantastic advert for the league, with Saracens edging out Wasps courtesy of a late try.  This was followed by Quins proving to strong for a London Irish team who simply failed to turn up until half time, by which time the game had gone.


With regard predictions, I got 4 from 6 right on here, having tipped my own boys to beat Quins, and Gloucester to nick it at The Gardens.  By the time I did my Superbru predictions and put my accumulator on, I'd gone for Saints, so was 5 from 6 elsewhere, but I'm clearly not going to get rich this way unless London Irish start winning a bit more often!  Anyway, here's the table of round one of the action:

	Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	Diff	TF	TA	TBP	LBP	PTS
	1.	Exeter Chiefs	1	1	0	0	52	0	+52	7	0	1	0	5
	2.	Northampton Saints	1	1	0	0	53	6	+47	8	0	1	0	5
	3.	Leicester Tigers	1	1	0	0	36	17	+19	4	2	1	0	5
	4.	Saracens	1	1	0	0	34	28	+6	4	3	1	0	5
	5.	Bath Rugby	1	1	0	0	29	20	+9	2	2	0	0	4
	6.	Harlequins	1	1	0	0	20	15	+5	2	0	0	0	4
	7.	London Irish	1	0	0	1	15	20	-5	0	2	0	1	1
	8.	Wasps	1	0	0	1	28	34	-6	3	4	0	1	1
	9.	Sale Sharks	1	0	0	1	20	29	-9	2	2	0	0	0
	10.	Newcastle Falcons	1	0	0	1	17	36	-19	2	4	0	0	0
	11.	Gloucester	1	0	0	1	6	53	-47	0	8	0	0	0
	12.	London Welsh	1	0	0	1	0	52	-52	0	7	0	0	0

So on to this weeks fixtures, and here they are:

Friday 12th September 2014   19:45   Harlequins vs. Saracens

Two of last seasons top 4 go head to head in an early season clash of the big guns.  Both won last week, although neither were wholly convincing and have room for improvement.  Quins look very strong defensively, whilst Saracens look to have a real cutting edge in attack, which seems strange to say as I would imagine the perception of both sides would be the other way round.  Both will be fired up and wanting to lay down a marker in this one, and I expect a fiercely competitive contest, which Quins just sneak, sending Saracens home with just the losing bonus point.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:00   Bath Rugby vs. London Welsh

It certainly doesn't get any easier for London Welsh does it.  Bath, to the surprise of their own fans on here I would imagine, managed to come back from Sale with 4 points in the bag, and should really extend their total to nine points with a big victory in this one.  Welsh, unsurprisingly for a team with 25 new players looked all over the place defensively on Sunday, and will need to improve very quickly if they are to avoid more thumpings by a similar scoreline this season.  Pride I suspect will keep it closer this weekend, but I don't see them getting anywhere near Bath this time out.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:00   Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks

Two teams who lost in the opening round, one at home, and one in spectacular fashion on the road.  Both will want to put things right this weekend, and Gloucester will take comfort in being back in familiar surroundings at Kingsholm.  Sale will be undaunted by the atmosphere there though, having won there last season, and I would imagine the players will be keen to not incur the wrath of Steve Diamond, which is the likely outcome if they lose two on the bounce.  David Humphreys doesn't strike me as putting the same fear into his players, but you have to think that guys like Richard Hibbard, John Afoa and James Hook will all step up a gear of their own accord this weekend.  This is a really tough call, but I can see a wounded Gloucester side sneaking this at home and Sale heading back North with a losing bonus point.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:15   Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers

Now if you asked me last week to predict this one I had it down as an away banker.  The Chiefs I felt had not recruited particuarly well in the summer, but their win against London Welsh will have given them massive confidence ahead of hosting the Tigers this week.  I've not seen the Tigers game, but understand from others who have that they weren't at their very best, but were clinical enough to put away a spirited Falcons side.  The Chiefs will be solid and difficult to play against and Leicester will need to up their game slightly to win here I feel, but I think they will, and will head back to the East Midlands with 4 points in the bag.


Sunday 14th September 2014   14:00   Wasps vs. Northampton Saints

This could be a cracker.  I need say nothing about Saints really, as we all saw the power they have and the finishing ability to match on Friday night.  Wasps were excellent in spells against Saracens, with back row forwards Nathan Hughes and Ashley Johnson particularly outstanding, but once again failed to put in a full 80 minute performance.  They will have to manage that against the Saints, as you cannot give them anything or they will run right over you.  I'm putting this one down as the game of the round, with Saints to just edge out Wasps in an 8 or 9 try thriller which sees the home side pick up a try bonus point to go with their losing one.


Sunday 14th September 2014   15:00   Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish

Two teams who need to win, it's that simple.  Falcons possibly didn't expect to get anything at Welford Road, but will be targeting this one big time for a win.  Irish conversely probably expected to beat Quins on Saturday, but came up short, and will know that they need this with Sarries, Saints and Tigers next up for them in the fixture list.  Whilst I would like to think that on Falcons new shiny 4G pitch this will be a fast and loose throwaround of a game, I suspect it will be a nervous, cagey arm wrestle with very little to wrote home about in terms of exciting play.  It will be tight, but I fancy is to nick it and head home with our first league win of the season under our belts.


Ozzy's predicted table after round two:

Northampton Saints 10, Bath Rugby 9, Leicester Tigers 9, Harlequins 8, Exeter Chiefs 6, Saracens 6, London Irish 5, Gloucester 4, Wasps 3, Sale Sharks 1, Newcastle Falcons 1, London Welsh 0.

As you say, it was a pleasant surprise for me to see us get the win at Sale. A really tricky place to go first up. A patchy performance, but positives were Ford's 100% goal kicking, including some 50m efforts, Joseph's breaks and the impact of Fearns, Auterac and Thomas off the bench.

As you say, we'd hope for a 5 point win this weekend, although i'm a bit torn as my mate will probably be on the bench for Welsh again! Can't wait to get down to the Rec.

Joseph and Watson looked very good for you guys I thought

From what I saw on Saturday at the double header, Quins will have to improve vastly if they want to beat Sarries on Friday night.

propdavid_london wrote:From what I saw on Saturday at the double header, Quins will have to improve vastly if they want to beat Sarries on Friday night.

That's a fair assessment, though it depends which half of each game you were watching. If Quins play like they did in the first half and Sarries like they did in the second, it would probably be an easy Quins victory, and vice versa.

Well i expect us to beat you Ozzy...there you go..2 opinons on the game you back your team and i back mine

Would be surprising if Quins do win - Saracens are their bogey team. Time and again Quins say that they've worked them out. I didn't see anything from the first game to suggest that Quins will win. Quins are a good side and are capable of beating Saracens but too often their big players haven't performed well in these encounters.

beshocked wrote:Would be surprising if Quins do win - Saracens are their bogey team. Time and again Quins say that they've worked them out. I didn't see anything from the first game to suggest that Quins will win. Quins are a good side and are capable of beating Saracens but too often their big players haven't performed well in these encounters.

An interesting fixture following so soon from the LDH. Both teams are likely still getting up to speed, could go either way. It's fair to say that neither had it their own way in the opening fixture, and neither won convincingly.

Can see a Exeter win. Also struggle with them.

 But we should have Croft, Parling and potentially Allen to play (I know Croft and Parling could have played but weren't 100% and were rested instead).

I've got a hunch that Quins will win. They under performed against us, but if they click then I think Saracens might be in for a shock.

Welly wrote:Can see a Exeter win. Also struggle with them.

 But we should have Croft, Parling and potentially Allen to play (I know Croft and Parling could have played but weren't 100% and were rested instead).

Difficult to judge Exeter's potential based on their opening fixture. London Welsh were simply clueless and there isn't another team in the AP that wouldn't have clattered them. It wasn't two weeks ago, quite a few on here were saying they thought Exeter would struggle this season. It remains to be seen, but I would expect Leicester to win - just.

I am going on history Exeter always seem to push us (barring the home game last season), and win when they shouldn't.

 Leicester were okay but the chemistry looked about 75% full.

 Exeter will be on a high and I don't think they are intimated by Tigers. (Although Nowell will not want Mulipola running at him again.

 Glad it is on TV as it should be a physical game.

 although if Leicester can field a near full strength team we should win.

My predictions:

Quins vs Saracens:

Saracens to win by 10

0-4

Bath vs London Welsh

Bath to win by 35 points

5-0

Gloucester vs Sale

Gloucester by 5 points

4-1


Exeter vs Leicester

Leicester to win by 5 points

1-4

Wasps vs Northampton

Northampton to win by 7 points

1-4

Newcastle vs London Irish

Newcastle to win by 5 points

4-1

Welly wrote:I am going on history Exeter always seem to push us (barring the home game last season), and win when they shouldn't.

 Leicester were okay but the chemistry looked about 75% full.

 Exeter will be on a high and I don't think they are intimated by Tigers. (Although Nowell will not want Mulipola running at him again.

 Glad it is on TV as it should be a physical game.

 although if Leicester can field a near full strength team we should win.

I don't think Nowell is fit. Beshocked had him 'taken care of' in time or the AI.... seriously, i think he might still be out injured.

Tigers struggles with Exe have tended to be during RWC or international windows when Exe had few, or none, call-ups.

Also, it shouldn't be forgotten that there were 7 newbies on show against Welsh (and 2 more making their Prem debuts) so its a bit of a scratch team, and Tigers will ask much harder questions of their instinctive teamwork than Welsh.

Exe are tightlipped about injuries, but Nowell has only just started contact training after having his knee dislocated and cleaned out on the surgeon's table back in May. Pretty unlikely that he'll be back to face Mulipola although I imagine he'll be desperate to reprise that tackle and do a better job.

I don't expect Exe to make many changes, except if any of the injury list become available - there's a spare front row who seem fit from last night's A game but no one else who would be contenders.

Loved the Robert Barbieri 'bunny hops' leading to Tigers last try.

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:Loved the Robert Barbieri 'bunny hops' leading to Tigers last try.

Aye - and the cheek of Mele pinching the try.

The new big screens came into their own for that one.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well i expect us to beat you Ozzy...there you go..2 opinons on the game you back your team and i back mine

You are of course entitled to your opinion GF.  It won't make it right of course, but you are entitled to it! 

Just seen the weather forecast for Newcastle on Sunday.  Windy with light rain from 1 o'clock until 4 o'clock.  Who's have thought it!!!

Ah never fear we have a new pitch

It could be blowing a hoolie and it wont matter...honest...

Ozzy3213 wrote:Just seen the weather forecast for Newcastle on Sunday.  Windy with light rain from 1 o'clock until 4 o'clock.  Who's have thought it!!!

Pretty much tropical up here!

Beshocked's right that Sarries do seem to be our bogey team. Every season we the fans make a whole heap of reasons why we should win but when it comes to it they just have us figured out...

I expect this weekend to be the same sadly. Hopefully we'll get the lbp at least though.

Oh and my predictions:
Quins 1 Globogym 4
Bath 5 Welsh 0
Glos 1 Sale 4
Ex 2 Tigers 2
Wasps 2 Saints 5
Falcons 4 Irish 0

Boom!

Yappysnap in two games last season it seemed like Quins had the upperhand over Saracens for 40 minutes but couldn't sustain that pressure for 80 minutes. That's the problem many teams have had - if you can win the collisions then Saracens can be hurt but maintaining that for a whole match isn't easy.

Saracens are beatable and Quins have enough match winners in their squad to do it. They just need to stand up to the inevitable pressure for the whole game.

It doesn't help that Quins have a smaller squad in this regard.

Against Wasps Saracens could bring on players like Hamilton and Farrell off the bench which in my opinion were influential replacements.

Interesting people expect a try bonus for Wasps - I think they are underestimating the Saints defence. I hope Wasps do put a fight though and I believe they've got the players to do so.

Beshocked I've seen the team list and Hodgson starts again over Farrell, is Faz injured, is he resting? What's the thinking behind it just out of interest.

Predictions:

Quins 1 Sarries 4
Bath 5 Welsh 0
Glos 1 Sale 4
Ex 4 Tigers 1
Wasps 1 Saints 4
Falcons 4 Irish 1

I expect that Farrell is still suffering from the injury that he did at the latter end of last season. Though it could be tactical - Farrell there to close out the game like he did vs Wasps.

Only one change - Wray for Brown indicates that Saracens are going for continuity.

12 English starters. Even Longbottom is English qualified (something I learnt from the Saracens vs Wasps game commentators) though I didn't include him.

http://www.saracens.com/saracens-name-side-to-face-harlequins-3/


http://www.quins.co.uk/news/harlequins-team-to-play-saracens/

Just one change for Quins too.

What has happened to Dave Ward?

Frontrow battle will be intriguing.

Got 6 players with a lot to prove:

Longbottom leaving Aussie international prospects to come to England and perhaps stake his claim for an England shirt.
George for so long seen as a bright prospect at hooker - needs to start fulfilling the potential with Brits away with SA
Barrington - still only 25, a big man who broke into the Saracens squad last season and cemented himself as 2nd choice LH behind Mako. Perhaps has aspirations to go further.

Marler - new Quins captain has a lot to prove after YC vs LI and needs to show he is still the no 1 LH for England.
Gray - a player who has to fight hard for the hooker at Quins, perhaps might want to put in a statement of intent for further honours?
Sinckler - highly rated youngster who like his captain got YC vs LI, needs to settle down and kick on.

Quins team to face Sarries tomorrow:

15. Mike Brown
14. Marland Yarde
13. Matt Hopper
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ollie Lindsay-Hague
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler©
2. Joe Gray
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. Charlie Matthews
5. George Robson
6. Luke Wallace
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Nick Easter

Replacements
16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. George Merrick
20. Jack Clifford
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Charlie Walker

Once change, LH in for injured Monye and Charlie Walker onto the bench.

Oops Sorry Beshocked beat me to it.

Gray - a player who has to fight hard for the hooker at Quins, perhaps might want to put in a statement of intent for further honours?

Gray is a curious one..and maybe i havent been fair on him in the past. Hes not as big or powerful maybe as some of the others...but he does all the basics of hooker player very well indeed and has good handling skills. If you could mix Gray, Ward and Buchanan you would have the makings of a world class hooker

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quins team to face Sarries tomorrow:

15. Mike Brown
14. Marland Yarde
13. Matt Hopper
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ollie Lindsay-Hague
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler©
2. Joe Gray
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. Charlie Matthews
5. George Robson
6. Luke Wallace
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Nick Easter

Replacements
16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. George Merrick
20. Jack Clifford
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Charlie Walker

Once change, LH in for injured Monye and Charlie Walker onto the bench.

An all England qualified 23 .. brilliant to see

Geordiefalcon I don't think Gray has been on the England radar because he hasn't really risen above his competitors.

He's not a hooker that stands out like a T.Youngs,Brits,Webber or Hartley in the AP.

I thought Ward was very good last season, he must be injured surely?

Really want to see George emerge from Brits' shadow.

BamBam wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quins team to face Sarries tomorrow:

15. Mike Brown
14. Marland Yarde
13. Matt Hopper
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ollie Lindsay-Hague
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler©
2. Joe Gray
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. Charlie Matthews
5. George Robson
6. Luke Wallace
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Nick Easter

Replacements
16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. George Merrick
20. Jack Clifford
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Charlie Walker

Once change, LH in for injured Monye and Charlie Walker onto the bench.

An all England qualified 23 .. brilliant to see

Evans, Botica?

21/23 English for Quins (with Botica edging towards EQP status), and potentially 23/23 under IOC rules (!)

Of that:
1 All Black
7 England Internationals (including 5 current starters)
8 Saxons / England A tourists
2 England 7s internationals, one of whom is a JRWC winning captain.

Both YCs on Saturday were unfortunate and more down to rusty technique than anything else; I'm not reading much into them other than that Quins need to tighten up on their discipline.

beshocked wrote:Geordiefalcon I don't think Gray has been on the England radar because he hasn't really risen above his competitors.

Gray became a full England international this summer courtesy of 10 minutes off the bench in the 1st NZ test. He's hardly "off the radar". The reason we haven't seen as much of him as we might is twofold - Hartley, Webber and Youngs have been ahead of him in the pecking order, and he was injured for half of last season.

I don't get why everyone's asking "Where's Wardy?" I think he's carrying a knock at the moment but there's no guarantee he'd start over Gray or Buchanan even if fit. Ward is a very visible player but his throwing can be decidedly wonky and he sometimes concentrates on the big play and forgets the basics. Gray is less flashy but far more consistent and Buchanan probably has the most long term potential, especially in the loose.

I expect all three to get lots of gametime this season. I don't expect Quins to be able to hold onto all three when they are up for contract renewal.

Evans

must admit I thought Botica was EQ now

edit - even so, 21/23 is pretty damn good!

I think we'll pinch it to be honest this weekend , played some good rugby down in Leicester last weekend and Tuilagi could prove the difference for us.

Driver

I think Socino may be the difference if he can pose a running threat aswell as actually freeing up space for the likes of Sinoti and Hammersley

BamBam wrote:Evans

must admit I thought Botica was EQ now

edit - even so, 21/23 is pretty damn good!

Botica's in his 3rd season with us so should become EQ at some point next year.

Poorfour rusty technique? Two notable hot heads getting YCs is not out of the ordinary is it? You might not read much into it but I would try and wind up Marler and Sinckler as much as possible. Equally if I was Quins I would look to wind up Ashton and Farrell when he comes on.

Neither player can afford to lose their cool this time round.

I say where's Ward because I rate him higher than Gray. Equally I rate Youngs,Hartley and Webber above him, probably George too (though the answer will surely be this weekend?)

I know it's early but this game could really shape our season. I see Irish at around our level so if we can turn them over I think we could really kick on and get a few wins under our belt over the next month.

Hammersley looks a serious player GF , surprised he's not in the U20s set up. 

Our backline has loads of ties in it with Sinoti , Tiesi , Tuilagi and Hammersley compared to years back with Shortland , Tait and Whoever turned up on the day.

Beshocked,
Your judging Marler on his past...i havent seen any hot headedness for a long time now. The YC was stupidity and sillyness more than anything.

Driver / Sgt

Yeah i think this could be an important game for us. Nine months or so with out a win. A win could really give us some confidence that we are going in the right direction.

Hammersley has been on the radar for a few years...but wanted to finish his Uni studies first but now is full time pro. He's showing he is a quality potential. And at 6'2 hes got some good physical presence aswell.

17 games..

I really hope we get a win this time then....

If the YCs had been for an illegal reaction to provocation, I'd have agreed with you.

But Marler's was a result of a miscommunication between him and Robson (I think he thought Robson had wrapped man and ball and he lifted the leg to try to complete the tackle by bringing it to ground).

Sinckler probably was a little bit on tilt after an altercation at the previous scrum, but the tackle itself started out at chest height and slid up off the ball. Clumsy technique but many refs would not have given a card having seen the replay. Garner had already decided to give a card before seeing the replay and downgraded it to yellow when he saw that the initial contact was legal.

I don't think winding Marler up is going to work any more. Winding Sinckler up might, but it's a risky game given what he can do legally given his size and speed... if he'd been an inch lower with that tackle on Saturday, it would have been lauded as a brilliantly timed hit and would probably have produced a turnover.

I think your analysis of the game is right, by the way. Quins can win if they maintain intensity at the breakdown for 80 minutes. History says we struggle to do that.

Well done Ozzy.

Cannot see Quins taking anything against Sarries. Sarries play for the full 80 whereas Quins dropped off horribly in the second half last week.

I can see a   win!

Saints the hot team at the moment.

George Carlin wrote:Well done Ozzy.

Cannot see Quins taking anything against Sarries. Sarries play for the full 80 whereas Quins dropped off horribly in the second half last week.

I can see a   win!

Saints the hot team at the moment.

Everyone seems to be forgetting that Sarries didn't exactly play for the full 80 themselves last week. They did let Wasps in to score more than once and conceded the lead - and all without giving away two soft yellow cards... ;-)

I still think they'll win, but they looked more vulnerable in that second half than they have for quite some time. I can only cling to the vain hope that they'll have eased off in response to that last gasp victory.

Poorfour it was the first game of the season against a dangerous Wasps side because they were unpredictable, they've got good players and they've got the attack to hurt teams.

Saracens looked vulnerable in the 2nd half but they turned things around when they really needed to.

Wasps looked like a side with the ability to challenge the top 6, London Irish in contrast did not.

Will be interesting to see how Wasps do vs Saints. Also to see if Exeter and Saints were flattered by poor opposition.

little_badger wrote:Beshocked I've seen the team list and Hodgson starts again over Farrell, is Faz injured, is he resting? What's the thinking behind it just out of interest.

Gustard has stated in the past that their rotation policy usually involves at least a 2 match set to allow players some rhythm in their game. Injuries or a preference for a big game being the principal alterations to that.

Wasps were a dodgy last minute scrum penalty away from beating Saints at AP last season. No scrum penalties had been given during the game to that point; every scrum that went down was reset.

A complete con job by the Saints front row and the ref fell for it. Myler landed the kick with time up.

We weren't even close in the return despite taking a 13-0 lead.


I would like to think we'll get something out of this game.