Aviva Premiership Round Two

First topic message reminder :

Well round one is done, and the Aviva Premiership is most definitely back.  With over 300 points scored, 34 tries and 3 hat tricks, it was an exciting weekends rugby, that began on Friday night with Saints putting 50+ points on Gloucester, and finished on Sunday afternoon with the Chiefs doing the same to hapless London Welsh.  Sandwiched in between Bath got themselves up and running with a win on the road at Sale, and Tigers completed a comprehensive victory over the Falcons at Welford Road.  At Twickenham, the first game f the double header was great spectacle and fantastic advert for the league, with Saracens edging out Wasps courtesy of a late try.  This was followed by Quins proving to strong for a London Irish team who simply failed to turn up until half time, by which time the game had gone.


With regard predictions, I got 4 from 6 right on here, having tipped my own boys to beat Quins, and Gloucester to nick it at The Gardens.  By the time I did my Superbru predictions and put my accumulator on, I'd gone for Saints, so was 5 from 6 elsewhere, but I'm clearly not going to get rich this way unless London Irish start winning a bit more often!  Anyway, here's the table of round one of the action:

	Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	Diff	TF	TA	TBP	LBP	PTS
	1.	Exeter Chiefs	1	1	0	0	52	0	+52	7	0	1	0	5
	2.	Northampton Saints	1	1	0	0	53	6	+47	8	0	1	0	5
	3.	Leicester Tigers	1	1	0	0	36	17	+19	4	2	1	0	5
	4.	Saracens	1	1	0	0	34	28	+6	4	3	1	0	5
	5.	Bath Rugby	1	1	0	0	29	20	+9	2	2	0	0	4
	6.	Harlequins	1	1	0	0	20	15	+5	2	0	0	0	4
	7.	London Irish	1	0	0	1	15	20	-5	0	2	0	1	1
	8.	Wasps	1	0	0	1	28	34	-6	3	4	0	1	1
	9.	Sale Sharks	1	0	0	1	20	29	-9	2	2	0	0	0
	10.	Newcastle Falcons	1	0	0	1	17	36	-19	2	4	0	0	0
	11.	Gloucester	1	0	0	1	6	53	-47	0	8	0	0	0
	12.	London Welsh	1	0	0	1	0	52	-52	0	7	0	0	0

So on to this weeks fixtures, and here they are:

Friday 12th September 2014   19:45   Harlequins vs. Saracens

Two of last seasons top 4 go head to head in an early season clash of the big guns.  Both won last week, although neither were wholly convincing and have room for improvement.  Quins look very strong defensively, whilst Saracens look to have a real cutting edge in attack, which seems strange to say as I would imagine the perception of both sides would be the other way round.  Both will be fired up and wanting to lay down a marker in this one, and I expect a fiercely competitive contest, which Quins just sneak, sending Saracens home with just the losing bonus point.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:00   Bath Rugby vs. London Welsh

It certainly doesn't get any easier for London Welsh does it.  Bath, to the surprise of their own fans on here I would imagine, managed to come back from Sale with 4 points in the bag, and should really extend their total to nine points with a big victory in this one.  Welsh, unsurprisingly for a team with 25 new players looked all over the place defensively on Sunday, and will need to improve very quickly if they are to avoid more thumpings by a similar scoreline this season.  Pride I suspect will keep it closer this weekend, but I don't see them getting anywhere near Bath this time out.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:00   Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks

Two teams who lost in the opening round, one at home, and one in spectacular fashion on the road.  Both will want to put things right this weekend, and Gloucester will take comfort in being back in familiar surroundings at Kingsholm.  Sale will be undaunted by the atmosphere there though, having won there last season, and I would imagine the players will be keen to not incur the wrath of Steve Diamond, which is the likely outcome if they lose two on the bounce.  David Humphreys doesn't strike me as putting the same fear into his players, but you have to think that guys like Richard Hibbard, John Afoa and James Hook will all step up a gear of their own accord this weekend.  This is a really tough call, but I can see a wounded Gloucester side sneaking this at home and Sale heading back North with a losing bonus point.


Saturday 13th September 2014   15:15   Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers

Now if you asked me last week to predict this one I had it down as an away banker.  The Chiefs I felt had not recruited particuarly well in the summer, but their win against London Welsh will have given them massive confidence ahead of hosting the Tigers this week.  I've not seen the Tigers game, but understand from others who have that they weren't at their very best, but were clinical enough to put away a spirited Falcons side.  The Chiefs will be solid and difficult to play against and Leicester will need to up their game slightly to win here I feel, but I think they will, and will head back to the East Midlands with 4 points in the bag.


Sunday 14th September 2014   14:00   Wasps vs. Northampton Saints

This could be a cracker.  I need say nothing about Saints really, as we all saw the power they have and the finishing ability to match on Friday night.  Wasps were excellent in spells against Saracens, with back row forwards Nathan Hughes and Ashley Johnson particularly outstanding, but once again failed to put in a full 80 minute performance.  They will have to manage that against the Saints, as you cannot give them anything or they will run right over you.  I'm putting this one down as the game of the round, with Saints to just edge out Wasps in an 8 or 9 try thriller which sees the home side pick up a try bonus point to go with their losing one.


Sunday 14th September 2014   15:00   Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish

Two teams who need to win, it's that simple.  Falcons possibly didn't expect to get anything at Welford Road, but will be targeting this one big time for a win.  Irish conversely probably expected to beat Quins on Saturday, but came up short, and will know that they need this with Sarries, Saints and Tigers next up for them in the fixture list.  Whilst I would like to think that on Falcons new shiny 4G pitch this will be a fast and loose throwaround of a game, I suspect it will be a nervous, cagey arm wrestle with very little to wrote home about in terms of exciting play.  It will be tight, but I fancy is to nick it and head home with our first league win of the season under our belts.


Ozzy's predicted table after round two:

Northampton Saints 10, Bath Rugby 9, Leicester Tigers 9, Harlequins 8, Exeter Chiefs 6, Saracens 6, London Irish 5, Gloucester 4, Wasps 3, Sale Sharks 1, Newcastle Falcons 1, London Welsh 0.

The guy to wind up is Synckler, he's shown in the past he's pretty emotional and if the scrums aren't going his way will happily engage in some heavy petting and handbags.

Luckily the scrums are generally pretty strong with him and Marler in there, I'd like to see Buchanan come on early as he'll add a lot more there as well, Gray is a little light for me. Buchanan's physicality will be a real benefit against Sarries as well. Perhaps he should have started with Gray to add stability off the bench.

I'm quietly confident

Chequeredjersey good attitude to have.

Yappysnap as I said before the scrum battle fascinates me.

ChequeredJersey wrote:I'm quietly confident

Harlequins have won their last six regular season games in Aviva Premiership Rugby since Saracens beat them at Wembley in March. Quins have not been defeated at the Twickenham Stoop in the competition since Saracens were the visitors in round 4 last season. Saracens were defeated in their most recent Premiership away game, at Leicester in May, to end a seven game winning run on the road. Sarries have won their opening two games of the season for the past two years. Harlequins only victory over Saracens in their last eleven fixtures since 2009 was 24-19 at Wembley on 31 March 2012. Saracens have won on six of their last seven visits to The Stoop.

Saracens by 3.

Be interesting to see Robshaw v Will Fraser...two possibly fighting for the England 7 spot.

George Carlin wrote:Well done Ozzy.

Cannot see Quins taking anything against Sarries. Sarries play for the full 80 whereas Quins dropped off horribly in the second half last week.

I can see a   win!

Saints the hot team at the moment.

I wish I had your confidence, GC - London Welsh really were very poor

September 2013, Tigers follow a TBP win at home to Falcons with a clear victory at Sandy Park where an Exeter team, who had won away from home the previous week against relegation candidates, were rather lacklustre.

i will take that

If we're going down that road, September 2013, Irish lost a 'home' game at the LDH and followed it with an away win against another side tipped to be in the relegation battle, and who were eventually relegated at the end of the season!

Hey...behave Ozzy!

GeordieFalcon wrote:Be interesting to see Robshaw v Will Fraser...two possibly fighting for the England 7 spot.

I just hope Will Fraser can deliver on the promise he has shown in previous seasons when not injured.

Wallace is a player who I also feel has a lot to prove.

All English backrow vs all English backrow. Nice to see.

London Irish: Andrew Fenby; Alex Lewington, Fergus Mulchrone, Shane Geraghty, James Short; Chris Noakes, Scott Steele; Tom Court, David Paice, Halani Aulika; George Skivington (Capt.), Dan Leo; Blair Cowan, Ofisa Treviranus, Tom Guest.

Replacements: Gerard Ellis, Matt Parr, Geoff Cross, Kieran Low, Luke Narraway, Tomás O’Leary, Eamonn Sheridan, Topsy Ojo.

That backline on paper looks incredibly weak for Irish, hopefully we'll be able to exploit it.

Bath Rugby side to face London Welsh

15 Luke Arscott
14 Semesa Rokoduguni
13 Jonathan Joseph
12 Kyle Eastmond
11 Anthony Watson
10 George Ford
9 Chris Cook
1 Paul James
2 Rob Webber
3 David Wilson
4 Stuart Hooper (c)
5 Dave Attwood
6 Carl Fearns
7 Guy Mercer
8 Leroy Houston

Replacements

16 Tom Dunn
17 Nick Auterac
18 Henry Thomas
19 Dominic Day
20 Alafoti Fa'osiliva
21 Peter Stringer
22 Ollie Devoto
23 Matt Banahan


A little bit of rotation with last week, I hope Cook takes his chance at scrum half, it was only a few months ago that he was helping Welsh get promoted!

Leicester team to face Chiefs:

15 Mathew Tait, 14 Niall Morris, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Anthony Allen, 11 Vereniki Goneva, 10 Freddie Burns, 9 Ben Youngs (c), 8 Robert Barbieri, 7 Julian Salvi, 6 Jamie Gibson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Graham Kitchener, 3 Fraser Balmain, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Logovi'i Mulipola.

Replacements: 16 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 17 Riccardo Brugnara, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Sebastian De Chaves, 20 Jordan Crane, 21 David Mele, 22 Owen Williams, 23 Matt Smith.

Im quietly confident for this one.

1. Fry
2.Lawson
3. Tomaszczyk
4. Green
5. Furno
6. Wilson
7. Welch ( C )
8. Hogg Replacements

9 Blair
10 Godman

11 Cato
12 Socino
13 Powell
14 Sinoti
15 Hammersley

16. Hawkins 17. Rogers 18. Wilson 19. Barrow 20. Mayhew 21. Tipuna 22 Alex Tuilagi 23. Helleur

Glaws are unchanged for the visit of Sale. Given our record against them and the manner of our last result, this will be a tough game to win. My hear says we sneak a win, my head says we pick up a LBP...

Glaws
Rob Cook; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Billy Twelvetrees (capt), Jonny May; James Hook, Greig Laidlaw; Dan Murphy, Richard Hibbard, John Afoa; Tom Savage, James Hudson; Sione Kalamafoni, Jacob Rowan, Ben Morgan

Replacements:
Darren Dawidiuk, Yann Thomas, Sila Puafisi, Tom Palmer, Ross Moriarty, Dan Robson, Mark Atkinson, Steve McColl


Sale
15 Luke Mclean, 14 Tom Brady, 13 Will Addison, 12 Mark Jennings, 11 Tom Arscott,10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Chris Cusiter, 1 Ross Harrison, 2 Marc Jones, 3 Vadim Cobilas, 4 Nathan Hines, 5 Jonathan Mills, 6 Michael Paterson, 7 David Seymour, 8 Mark Easter

Replacements 16 Shalva Mamukashvili, 17 Alberto de Marchi, 18 Eifion Lewis Roberts, 19 Andrei Ostrikov, 20 Magnus Lund, 21 Will Cliff, 22 Joe Ford, 23 Andy Forsyth

GeordieFalcon wrote:Im quietly confident for this one.

1. Fry
2.Lawson
3. Tomaszczyk
4. Green
5. Furno
6. Wilson
7. Welch ( C )
8. Hogg Replacements

9 Blair
10 Godman

11 Cato
12 Socino
13 Powell
14 Sinoti
15 Hammersley

16. Hawkins 17. Rogers 18. Wilson 19. Barrow 20. Mayhew 21. Tipuna 22 Alex Tuilagi 23. Helleur

Is that a problem?

Also what is up with Brookes?

Not so concerned with Godman there whilst Socino is at 12. Then i assume Socino will move to 10 in the second half bringing on Tuilagi and Helleur...ouch.

Not sure whats up with Brookes...the silence that comes out of KP is deafening. Could be injured, could be rested...we honestly never know!

Sgt_Pooly wrote:That backline on paper looks incredibly weak for Irish, hopefully we'll be able to exploit it.

Couldn't disagree with that more. Two playmakers at 10 and 12 and a back 3 with pace to burn. As long as the pack can get us over the gainline there is plenty there to take chances. It does put the onus on Paice, Aulika, Leo and Big Trev to do the hard yards and get us over the gainline, but given that it's going to be firm underfoot, I am more than happy with having the pace merchants in the back line. Looking forward to this.

A back 3 with little quality though surely, would Short/Lewington trouble any other AP side? Steele/Mulchrone again very average.

The units may work but on paper it's the worst Irish backline for years imo, really lacking quality.

The only saviour could be our scrum or lack of it with no solid LH.

I would say a poor LH in Fry with a very lightweight lock behind him in Furno. He reminds me more of a Croft but a hyperactive one. Not a heavy duty scrumaging lock.

That could be our weakness.

Newcastle/Irish history.........the home side has won the last 7 encounters.

With the greatest of respect, as I'm not in to bagging players, but man for man I would say it compares favourably to what it's up against.

9 Blair
10 Godman
11 Cato
12 Socino
13 Powell
14 Sinoti
15 Hammersley

Blair on his day is still a class act, but Godman at 10 is poor, arguably the worst 10 in the Premiership. Cato I wouldn't swap in for either of our wingers, Sinoti maybe, as the one thing we lack is a bit of a physical presence there. Geraghty and Socino I don't see there being much between, likewise Mulchrone and Powell, so ultimately it's pretty evens in the backline.

Up front, I fancy us to give you some real problems in the scrum, and with some rain forecast, there could well be a few. I guess we'll find out on Sunday, but I fancy us get a result.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:Newcastle/Irish history.........the home side has won the last 7 encounters.

I know you love your stats Pooly, but that stat is a little bit misleading, as only 4 of those 7 games were in Premiership, the other 3 were in the Mickey Mouse Cup which I'm not sure you can put much store by.

In the past 5 seasons there have been 8 league matches between the two sides. At Kingston Park Falcons have won 2, we've won 1 and 1 was a draw. The two defeats we suffered were by 2 points last season, and 9 points in the 2011/12 season.

I thought Croft was meant to be back for this game? Is he being rested ready for a home game instead perhaps?

Ozzy3213 wrote:With the greatest of respect, as I'm not in to bagging players, but man for man I would say it compares favourably to what it's up against.

9 Blair
10 Godman
11 Cato
12 Socino
13 Powell
14 Sinoti
15 Hammersley

Blair on his day is still a class act, but Godman at 10 is poor, arguably the worst 10 in the Premiership.  Cato I wouldn't swap in for either of our wingers, Sinoti maybe, as the one thing we lack is a bit of a physical presence there.  Geraghty and Socino I don't see there being much between, likewise Mulchrone and Powell, so ultimately it's pretty evens in the backline.

Up front, I fancy us to give you some real problems in the scrum, and with some rain forecast, there could well be a few.  I guess we'll find out on Sunday, but I fancy us get a result.

I'd take all of our players except Godman who is poor. Noakes is unknown though, he could be worse!

Pack wise I'd take us at hooker, locks and 8. It's much closer here though.

Must be pretty saddening as an Irish fan rolling out that back line after some of the quality you've had over the last few years (JOC, Yarde, Tagi, Maps etc)

Not really mate, we've got two young pacy guys on the wings who are only going to get better, and some talented kids coming through the ranks in the centres who will break through over the next couple of years. Am pretty happy with where the club is at now, focusing on the academy and team ethic over star players.

Short seemed to handle the highly rated Yarde relatively easily. I agree though that the LI backline is a shadow of what it used to be.

I would say both backlines look even on paper. Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them.

Sinoti maybe, as the one thing we lack is a bit of a physical presence there

Sinoti is a real class act...who doesnt just offer a physical option.

beshocked wrote:Short seemed to handle the highly rated Yarde relatively easily. I agree though that the LI backline is a shadow of what it used to be.

I would say both backlines look even on paper. Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them.

I can square with that assessment, but not having that every Falcons bar is better than their opposite number, even from the one eyed Falcons fan that's Pooly!

yappysnap wrote:I thought Croft was meant to be back for this game? Is he being rested ready for a home game instead perhaps?

Cockerill said he wouldn't risk Croft if he wasn't 100% fit. We'll just have to wait I suppose, its not like Gibson is a poor player.

Bench looks dynamic and strong. It's a good Tigers team and should turn Chiefs over.

Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them

Glad to hear it....keeps us both under the radar away from any expectations and we can just get on nicely rebuilding.

Jimpy wrote:

yappysnap wrote:I thought Croft was meant to be back for this game? Is he being rested ready for a home game instead perhaps?

Cockerill said he wouldn't risk Croft if he wasn't 100% fit. We'll just have to wait I suppose, its not like Gibson is a poor player.

Bench looks dynamic and strong. It's a good Tigers team and should turn Chiefs over.

Random question as well, but does Mafi still play for Tigers?

No Yappy he went back to Oz due to family matters i believe. Either with the Rebels or Force i think.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

beshocked wrote:Short seemed to handle the highly rated Yarde relatively easily. I agree though that the LI backline is a shadow of what it used to be.

I would say both backlines look even on paper. Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them.

I can square with that assessment, but not having that every Falcons bar is better than their opposite number, even from the one eyed Falcons fan that's Pooly!

I imagine Beshocked hasn't seen too much of Sinoti, Socino, Hammersley which is fair enough as they've not played much.

I'm far from one eyed, I've been extremely critical of us in the past.

I just think the Irish backline is poor, our is stronger but not by masses.

yappysnap wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

yappysnap wrote:I thought Croft was meant to be back for this game? Is he being rested ready for a home game instead perhaps?

Cockerill said he wouldn't risk Croft if he wasn't 100% fit. We'll just have to wait I suppose, its not like Gibson is a poor player.

Bench looks dynamic and strong. It's a good Tigers team and should turn Chiefs over.

Random question as well, but does Mafi still play for Tigers?

No mate, he's gone to Australia (Western force), for personal reasons, but also with an aim to play for the Wallabies through the Olympic loophole. Tigers are well stocked with back rowers:


6. Croft & Gibson
7. Salvi & Matera
8. Crane & Barbieri

They have four full internationals and two 'A' internationals before they even need to look at development options (Pearce) or academy options. Best to hold on to the cash to enable a response to an injury crisis in any one position, rather than bring in a player they probably won't need.

Ahhh thought I hadn't seen him for a while...

Interesting how Tigers like their backrow to be an athletic tall 6, shorter groundhog 7 and old school beef at 8.

Not quite your normal backrow combo but it seems to work well enough.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:

beshocked wrote:Short seemed to handle the highly rated Yarde relatively easily. I agree though that the LI backline is a shadow of what it used to be.

I would say both backlines look even on paper. Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them.

I can square with that assessment, but not having that every Falcons bar is better than their opposite number, even from the one eyed Falcons fan that's Pooly!

I imagine Beshocked hasn't seen too much of Sinoti, Socino, Hammersley which is fair enough as they've not played much.

I'm far from one eyed, I've been extremely critical of us in the past.

I just think the Irish backline is poor, our is stronger but not by masses.

Difference is though that LI have the mindset to throw the ball around and are used to doing that (although if they could catch as well as throw it'd be handy). Falcons seem to just want to kick all the time, so it doesn't matter how good your backline is.

You've obviously not seen us since last season Yappy.

Agreed we played some terrible stuff last season but we're a completely different outfit now, Deano has got us playing rugby at last.

Well Yappy...in all honesty the preseason and Tigers game have shown a shift in that mentality.

And this backs up the noise coming from KP saying they would start to open it up.

Paice always started ahead of Lawson when both were fit at Irish....

I guess we'll see on Sunday. Gutted we're the last game of the weekend, just want the match to be played now!

But we've improved lawson as a player

I think it'll be close. I just hope we continue our trend of trying to play open rugby.

It should be a good game, hopefully the banter is pointing towards how close we are currently and we'll produce a cracker.

yappysnap wrote:

Sgt_Pooly wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:

beshocked wrote:Short seemed to handle the highly rated Yarde relatively easily. I agree though that the LI backline is a shadow of what it used to be.

I would say both backlines look even on paper. Most AP sides wouldn't be too frightened about facing either of them.

I can square with that assessment, but not having that every Falcons bar is better than their opposite number, even from the one eyed Falcons fan that's Pooly!

I imagine Beshocked hasn't seen too much of Sinoti, Socino, Hammersley which is fair enough as they've not played much.

I'm far from one eyed, I've been extremely critical of us in the past.

I just think the Irish backline is poor, our is stronger but not by masses.

Difference is though that LI have the mindset to throw the ball around and are used to doing that (although if they could catch as well as throw it'd be handy). Falcons seem to just want to kick all the time, so it doesn't matter how good your backline is.

That tactic by LI didn't exactly work particularly well vs Quins who looked like they could have stopped LI from scoring a try even if they played an extra 80 minutes!

Throwing the ball around doesn't necessarily turn into tries. An intelligent kick can be just as effective in creating a try scoring opportunity - e.g. an up and under or grubber. Plus kicks generally are meant to give you field position so you'll be closer to the opposition try line.

I think both LI and Newcastle lack the firepower in the backline to really hurt defences.

We might not beat the big teams but I can see Tuilagi, Sinoti and Socino causing defences problems.

The fullback Hammersley got a decent review from anyone I spoke to about the game Sgt.

Not convinced that Falcons have a ten to pull the strings and get the best out of the PI meat on the wings and that centre pairing. Will Catterick get another go?

I can't recall Cattrick ever getting a go bar the odd game. He perhaps would be suited more to 10 as he's an awful winger, think he had a run at U20 level at FH.

Socino could settle in at 10, Deano gave him 20mins there against you so could be easing him in.

I agree that our backline looks the worst it has for a while. It will be interesting to see whether Noakes and Griffin (when fit) can change that perception.