Aviva Premiership Round Four

Updated with all predictions now.  Loving this season so far, been some cracking entertainment on display.

If Manu and Allen play I can see a good win.

But with Tom youngs, Morris, Tait and possibly Parling looking like they are out this weekend who knows. and Meel maybe getting a suspension.

Rumour's are that Thorn could be on the bench.

Also could see maybe Scully, Loamanu and Bai back into the selection choice.

With Morris and Tait maybe out Scully and Loamanu we need to be fit with our back 3 options going down.

London Irish will smell blood.

Sunday 28th September 2014   14:00   Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons

Having played Saracens, Saints and Quins in their opening three games, I suspect that Wasps will be pleased to have a slightly easier fixture this week.  Falcons have shown little in the opening three rounds, however they did battle hard against Saints in the second half last time out.  The problem is they don't look able to hurt teams with their back line, so are reliant on their pack rumbling over, but other teams have equally strong packs and they aren't likely to dominate anyone but London Welsh.  If Wasps pack get them any quick ball, they have pace to burn in the back line and will score tries.  I think they'll get four or more of them here and bag a nice little five pointer in this one.

We do when we actually pick the right back line...WITHOUT F&^king GODMAN!!!!!

I think'll we'll win this one.

I've been impressed with what I've seen of Hammersley so far ...

Absolutely he's been quality....so he'll probably be a Tigers player next season...

GeordieFalcon wrote:Absolutely he's been quality....so he'll probably be a Tigers player next season...

Saints looking at him I heard.

Having watched our game against Saracens now, I am both optimistic and nervous going into the Tigers game.  We have a defensive deficiency at the maul which I am certain Tigers will look to exploit, but we look as if we have tries in us in open play, and our scrum has gone well (albeit the ref made the scrum a complete shambles for both sides against Saracens).

Looking forward to this one, roll on the weekend.

Ozzy3213 wrote:


Sunday 28th September 2014   14:00   Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins

Despite the win against Wasps, I am still unconvinced by Harlequins this season.  The Chiefs on the other hand have surprised me this season, as I wasn't convinced they would be as strong as they have in last 2 years, but once again they are well drilled, efficient, and have some real talented youngsters going well in their back line.  Pre season, I'd have fancied Quins to nick this one, but after the evidence of the opening three rounds, I think this is a win for the Chiefs, and Quins will be lucky to take anything back with them to Twickenham.

I have to say I am still not convinced as to whether Exeter are the team we saw in the last two months of last season or the one that had delighted us previously.

A thrashing of LW told us little. The misfiring lineout and inability to make the correct decisions when under pressure against tigers suggested not much has changed. Finally a lucky win over Gloucester who I felt were in many ways superior has probably given Rob Baxter much to ponder.

I fully expect Chiefs to win this weekend, but more due to Quins woes from 10 out. Up front I reckon Quins will have a clear advantage - but with all the injuries insufficient firepower to score the points needed.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having watched our game against Saracens now, I am both optimistic and nervous going into the Tigers game.  We have a defensive deficiency at the maul which I am certain Tigers will look to exploit, but we look as if we have tries in us in open play, and our scrum has gone well (albeit the ref made the scrum a complete shambles for both sides against Saracens).

Looking forward to this one, roll on the weekend.

Leicester at the moment are in complete disarray. Any team failing to beat them needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

We couldnt...

LondonTiger wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having watched our game against Saracens now, I am both optimistic and nervous going into the Tigers game.  We have a defensive deficiency at the maul which I am certain Tigers will look to exploit, but we look as if we have tries in us in open play, and our scrum has gone well (albeit the ref made the scrum a complete shambles for both sides against Saracens).

Looking forward to this one, roll on the weekend.

Leicester at the moment are in complete disarray. Any team failing to beat them needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

I think that's a bit of an over reaction to a terrible result, I wouldn't say Tigers are in disarray.  It was a shocking performance for sure, but I can't see it happening again, and if Allen and Tuilagi are fit Tigers will be a completely different side to the one that got beaten last weekend.

GeordieFalcon wrote:We couldnt...

Well on the positive side we were in less disarray, but even so Godman made all your possession irrelevant.

Now I know we are not allowed to discuss injuries - but they do have an effect. This has been most noticeable at scrum time. On a good day, Logo and Balmain are very good. but too many off days atm. so much of tigers game is built on a solid scrum - without that they are less than half the side.

Then add in the changes to defensive systems the new coach is introducing (and 27% missed tackles in each of the 3 matches so far) and we are really struggling when the opposition have the ball.

I think professional pride will see us scrap out a win over LI - but never have they come to WR with us this vulnerable.

LondonTiger wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having watched our game against Saracens now, I am both optimistic and nervous going into the Tigers game.  We have a defensive deficiency at the maul which I am certain Tigers will look to exploit, but we look as if we have tries in us in open play, and our scrum has gone well (albeit the ref made the scrum a complete shambles for both sides against Saracens).

Looking forward to this one, roll on the weekend.

Leicester at the moment are in complete disarray. Any team failing to beat them needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

Falcons couldn't or Newcastel.

Tom youngs out for 3 months.

but even so Godman made all your possession irrelevant.

Unfortunately thats been a common theme for the last year and a bit....dont understand why Dean continues with a guy wh is not even championship standard.

Fortunately we have light at the end of the tunnel....Socino looks like he's more than comfortable at 10.

Youngs out for 3 months

Allen out for a month

I think part of Leicester's problem stems from a lack of leadership plus a loss of what made the Tigers such a feared team.

When supposedly your best leader is B Youngs you know you are in trouble in this area.

Leicester used to be edgy and abrasive - I am not sure you can say that anymore. They used to bully opposition - now the boot is on the other foot. There's positives to the change in style as they are not really known as a dirty side any more but it means they've lost their bite that brought them success.

It's not as if Leicester lack experience in the squad. Sure - Leicester had some injuries but bar the significant holes in the centre it was a Tigers team that should be mostly familiar playing together.

I think Leicester can turn this round but Cockerill and the Tigers squad need to hit back with a big statement of intent.

Ozzy I agree losing Allen and Manu was a massive blow - one being a steady leader in the backline and the other being an inspirational focal point in attack.

That is were Thorn could be crucial what with Slater and deacon injured.

Can't wait for next month

Ayerza, Rizzo, Thorn, adds so much more weight to the forwards.

So going of the merc interview:

Tom youngs, Morris, Allen & Manu are out for this weekend.

Also Parling is a 50/50.

So potentially we could have a team of unavaibles this weekend of:

1) Ayerza, 2) YOungs, 3) Cole
4) Slater, 5) Parling
6) Gibson, 7) Matera 8) Loamanu
9) Mele (Suspension), 10) Bai
12) Allen 13) Manu
11) Benjamin, 14) Morris, 15) Tait

16) Thacker, 17) Rizzo, 18) Bristow, 19) Thorn, 20) ?, 21) Hepetema, 22) Camacho 23) Scully.

Missing some bench options but not a bad team.

Although I am hoping

Bai, Loamanu, Scully, Gibson and Parling to be fit come weekend.

After the highs of last weekend, I would take a LBP at Saints. While it was a very good Bath performance, Leicester were pretty abject really and I can't see Saints giving Eastmond and Joseph as much space to roam in.

That said, if the pack plays near to the same intensity as last week then you are going to be in a good position for most games you play in. Sadly Fearns will be out, so the backrow is going to have to be rejigged. I think Sisi is back in training, but I don't know if this will be a week too soon for him.

Should be a fascinating game, I'm just struggling to see Northampton losing at home, but obviously I hope they do!

Quins can beat Exeter if we match them in the forwards and play simple rugby until opportunities appear.

If on the other hand we keep with the "throw it wide at every opportunity, especially in our own 22" then Exeter will find it easy to nullify us and have more then enough vision and talent to hammer us (as done in the past).

Our forwards need to focus on just running hard and rucking quickly in attack, our backs need to keep the ball more and cut out the panicked passes. I seem to say this every week but JTH needs a big game, he is appearing to be instrumental in us winning.

Also for all our "exciting rugby" talk. It's Worthing noting we've scored less tries then London Welsh or even Newcastle

Round 4 already? Jeez, the autumn is coming on us quick.

London Welsh - Gloucester
London Welsh look horrifically bad. Gloucester don't.
Are Welsh at the Last Chance saloon already?
Gloucester to win bigggg.

Leicester Tigers - London Irish
Are Leicester as bad as they looked against Bath? Doubtful.
Are London Irish as good as they looked against Sarries? Possibly.
No matter. Simply the worst weekend in a decade to be playing Leicester. Leicester by 30 over anyone.

Saracens - Sale
Hmmm. Sarries shipped a lot of points last weekend. Sale looked good.
A vexing match to pick.
The vexing ends with Sarries by 10.

Exeter - Harlequins
Exe look good. Quins don't.
Exe look solid. Quins don't.
Exe look like a 10 point winner. Quins don't.

Wasps - Falcons
This ain't funny. Falcons must be feeling a little uncomfortable whilst in the London Welsh zone.
Wasps are a little up and down.
Wasps are up enough to beat Falcons, but, methinks it is a close one.

SAINTS - Bath
Madre de dios, what a match.
Bath, with their slightly too pretty, too well dressed owner. Saints with regular folk.
Bath look unbeatable, invincible, unstoppable. Last week, Saints showed their old tendency to fall asleep in matches.
Can't see any possible way for Saints to win. But they do: Saints by a couple in a tough, tough match.

Leicester by 30 with all their injuries? Wow. Big call!

He meant to say at least 30...

Look, here's the deal with Leicester:  They will come back with a vengeance this weekend.  Their starting XV last weekend, minus the mid-field, was fine.  Doesn't matter whom they play.  The questions are why and how they rebound.  And this I can now reveal.  

It is obvious that Leicester's continued high level performance for years and years defies human nature, and all natural probabilities.  Their performance is clearly un-natural.  Armed with this understanding, the question was how to confirm.  Scouring Leicestershire there were no signs of WW2-era selective breeding programmes.  No obvious signs of devil worship or human sacrifice.  So my team of adventurers and I dug up the corpses of deceased Leicester players and experimented with their brains.  That was the answer.  Leicester took research started in the Cold War by the Soviet Union (that's the Russians for you kiddies) and continued by other communist governments in the far east in the deepest darkest corners of the globe.  When a player signs with Leicester, they undergo this 'cognitive therapy' and emerge at the other end 'different'.  Emerging from the clubhouse before matches all we hear is:  "I must break you", "You are worthless and weak", and "Where are the sheep?".

I fear a major loss, such as against the Bruce Craig Mafia last weekend, will create a counter-reation in their synapses which will make them almost unstoppable this weekend.  Afterwards their heads may explode.......

To be fair, given some of the results so far this season, a 30 point margin is most definitely not beyond the realms of possibility.  Our record at Welford Road is poor, I am pretty certain that it's our worst away record.  I believe we've won there twice since 1923, the most recent being a 20-19 win in 2003.  We did draw there a couple of seasons ago, but it has not been a happy hunting ground.

A lot will come down to team selection in this one I think.  Tigers missed Allen and Tuilagi massively on Saturday, and if they are not playing it will be a big positive for us.  In the pack we have not rotated massively in the opening three games.  Court, Paice, Aulika, Skivington, Treviranus and Cowan have started all three games and in most cases finished them as well.  In particular in the front row they will need a break at some point.  News is that Treviranus is injured and will miss out so I'll be fascinated to see how we set up in the pack.

From today's Mercury;

" Director of rugby Richard Cockerill said: “Tom Youngs has popped his AC joint and had surgery on that yesterday. He is probably going to be out for three months.“Niall Morris, meanwhile, tore his ankle ligaments in the game and will probably be out for four to six weeks.”Centre pairing Manu Tuilagi and Ant Allen are also expected to miss the weekend visit of London Irish."

I've heard conflicting reports on Allen and Tuilagi though, with some saying that Manu will be fit to go.

Ozz, Usually Tigers say players are fit when they are not. Don't believe the team that is put up Friday will be the one that takes to the field Saturday.

The Mercury reported they'd be fine on Monday and that they'd be injured today. Given Tuesday is media day at Oval Park I'd expect tonight's rugby programme on Radio Leicester to shed more light on that change of prognosis.

Bai and Loamano should hopefully have recovered. Otherwise Pohe might get his first start.

No Mele he got a one week ban for the world's softest red card.

Cockers confirmed that Allen, T.Youngs, Manu and Parling will be out this weekend.

BUT that Scully, Bai and Benjamin are fit to play this weekend.

And that Thorn and Pearce should be okay for Glous.

Yes Benjamin has apparently been fit for a month but they've looked after him not rushed him back...and now he's ready.

i think he played 10 games for you last season and scored 5 tries...so he'll be good to get back.

Welly wrote: Cockers confirmed that Allen, T.Youngs, Manu and Parling will be out this weekend.

BUT that Scully, Bai and Benjamin are fit to play this weekend.

And that Thorn and Pearce should be okay for Glous.

If that is the case, what sort of side are looking at fielding then?

Logo
Ghiraldini
Balmain
Kitch
DeChaves
Croft
Salvi
Crane/Barbieri
Youngs
Burns/Williams
Goneva
Bai
Smith
Scully
Tait

Bench:
Briggs
Brugnara
Pasquale
Gibson
Crane/Barbieri
Harrison
Burns/Williams
Pohe

Would be my guess

Still plenty of ability in that side then.  Whilst your injury list is high, that is still a side that should be competitive, especially at home.

Tait is a doubt or so I heard. He dislocated a finger early doors vs Bath and popped it back in and played on. So could be Burns or Scully to 15 and Benjamin on to the wing.

Time to bring Wells back from Bedford to cover the bench?

I've often been critical of Richard Cockerill in the past, but full credit to him here, no excuses, Tigers just have to get on with it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/29341926

How many games does Tait get through in a season? Is he always carrying knocks?

Mind at least your club tells you when your players are injured...we dont have a clue if they're injured or part of the selection rotation merry go round....

Be interesting to see Burns at 15 and Williams at 10. Iirc Birns was very good for Bath at fullback

yappysnap wrote:Be interesting to see Burns at 15 and Williams at 10. Iirc Birns was very good for Bath at fullback

Never played first team for us, Glos poached him from the academy. They did play him at 15 for a season at least though and he was awesome. Much like Wasps starting Cipriani there, which also worked well for club and player

Tait tends to miss the first third of the season and then play the rest of it. Whether he's available will depend on how his body reacts to the dislocation. We'd have heard by now if it was serious.

The injury updates were only after an ongoing demand for information from the Tigers Fans Forum.

He never had an extended run at 15 due to Olly Morgan's presence, but he did play a few games at 15 and was very assured. I don't think he's either a good enough tackler or secure under the high ball enough to be a front line 15, but he certainly can do a job there. On the plus side his turn of pace can be used better when he has more space.

...and the only poaching was by Tigers, we just gently persuaded him he was better of at Glaws

Another bit of news is that Crane has been doing some second row training this season.

could be a interesting move.

Would potentially add some ballast to an area where Tigers looked at bit lightweight on Saturday.

Welly wrote: Another bit of news is that Crane has been doing some second row training this season.

could be a interesting move.

Wasn't it Brian Ashton who suggested this may be his best position - back when he first entered the England squads. Pretty sure he played for the Saxons at least once at second row.

He played for the Saxons against Portugal (I think) at lock.

He does a solid job at 8. His knee injuries has meant that he's never quite reached his potential. I think he'll just be training at lock as we're short at the minute. Especially with Deacon halfway retired and Slater injured.

Jayzus this week is going slowly.  Just want Saturday to arrive!!!

cockers confirmed that Crane will be the second row cover for Kitchener and De cheves.