The ERCC groups - how they look now

First topic message reminder :

So three weeks before kick-off of the Euro cup and where do the various teams stand

Leinster-Harlequins-Castres-Wasps

After dog rough groups in past few years, Leinster should be feeling reasonably happy with Quins in a bit of a crisis, Castres propping up the T14 although Wasps are in the top half of the Prem. Leinster have been no great shakes so far but you'd have to think this group is there for the winning unless Quins improve dramatically, Castres display some interest in the proceedings for once and Wasps improve a bit more. Verdict - Leinster to win with enough points for a home QF

Sale-Munster-Saracens-Clermont

Munster, currently playing total sh1te, in serious danger of being dumped out before the knockouts with the two big beasts of Sarries and Clermont fighting it out for top slot. Suspect Sarries will top the group with enough for a home QF

Leicester-Ulster-Toulon-Scarlets

Hard to see beyond Toulon and a home QF here to be honest, Leicester and Ulster probably fighting it out for second place

Glasgow-Bath-Toulouse-Montpelier

This must be the best chance Glasgow have ever had of topping a group and a likely home QF. Toulouse in apparent total disarray at joint bottom of T14, Montpelier in mid-table of T14 and will be predictably useless in their away matches. Between Glasgow and an apparently resurgent Bath - but will go for Glasgow

Racing Metro-Northampton-Ospreys-Treviso

Two will go defo through from this group with Treviso there for 10 points to be taken. Ospreys top of Pro12, Saints up high in Prem - think it will be between the two of them with Saints likely to shade it. RM's useless away form means they may lose out

So group wins for Leinster, Saracens, Toulon, Glasgow and Northampton (not sure in which order for home QF's - with the 3 runner-up slots going to Clermont, Ospreys and either Ulster/Leicester or Bath

Thoughts

My main issue with refs is my abiding anger with clumsy ones who get in the way of good moves:  "Oh sorry, f**ked up that beautiful move on you lads...sorry, sorry, won't happen again.  Now let's see, you knocked on when I bumped into you on your way so that's ball to the opposition.  Okay, let's do this...thanks for the water bottle, I needed it"

The TMO should penalise refs who get in the way or all too easily allow themselves to be used as decoys for sides to spirit past opposition defences.

So those should be two new rules:  Refs should get cards for constantly getting in the way.  Refs should give cards to sides who try to use them as decoys to escape the defensive clutches of the opposition.

Do you work for Hallmark - a whole new card giving holiday just created

A card for you for insolence!

SecretFly wrote:My main issue with refs is my abiding anger with clumsy ones who get in the way of good moves:  "Oh sorry, f**ked up that beautiful move on you lads...sorry, sorry, won't happen again.  Now let's see, you knocked on when I bumped into you on your way so that's ball to the opposition.  Okay, let's do this...thanks for the water bottle, I needed it"

The TMO should penalise refs who get in the way or all too easily allow themselves to be used as decoys for sides to spirit past opposition defences.

So those should be two new rules:  Refs should get cards for constantly getting in the way.  Refs should give cards to sides who try to use them as decoys to escape the defensive clutches of the opposition.  

While I agree to a point - often this comes about as teams us the Ref as a blocker - making it might more likely they will get in the way

I've alloted a card for that transgression already!  

But nope, I'm talking about slick moves not designed to get the ref involved at all but he still manages to be in the right place at the wrong time...AND...doesn't cough up the sense that it was his mistake but instead gives the advantage of the failed move, caused by him, to the opposition.  Those moments infuriate me.

I think he may becoming too slow with all these extra cards he has to carry :-)

Good, he might keep himself behind active play then where he bloody well should be!

Just saw this thread. I see that the numerous posters lining up to sledge Glasgow have become strangely quiet after 18 October.
I wonder why that is.

Not to worry. Anyone who follows either Scottish team is well used to graceless, cliched and hopelessly ill-informed commentary from people who have quite literally never watched either side play and couldn't pick any of their players out of a police line-up. The mainstream sports press (who really should know better) also tend to adopt this approach.

Perhaps those people who know nothing about the club could watch someone speak who does know a bit about the game and who has some well informed things to say (watch from about 2:15):
http://www1.skysports.com/watch/video/9523566/champions-cup-round-up-18th-oct

George Carlin credit where credit is due - good win.

Should have seen a loss coming to be honest - Bath were beaten by both Wasps and Saints away from home - though in those two games they made a fight back in the 2nd half. Something they didn't do against Glasgow.

I didn't expect Glasgow to hammer them - in the highlights they looked very good indeed.

Bath also foolishly picked a weakened frontrow and had absentees in the backrow which wouldn't have helped either.

Expect a tougher Bath team on their own patch.

Also should have taken into account Glasgow's Pro12 form - it's just sometimes good league form doesn't transfer into good European form.

Need to back up this good win with more good form.

beshocked wrote: George Carlin credit where credit is due - good win.

Should have seen a loss coming to be honest - Bath were beaten by both Wasps and Saints away from home - though in those two games they made a fight back in the 2nd half. Something they didn't do against Glasgow.

I didn't expect Glasgow to hammer them - in the highlights they looked very good indeed.

Bath also foolishly picked a weakened frontrow and had absentees in the backrow which wouldn't have helped either.

Expect a tougher Bath team on their own patch.

Also should have taken into account Glasgow's Pro12 form - it's just sometimes good league form doesn't transfer into good European form.

Need to back up this good win with more good form.

Absolutely and it's completely fair comment that this has always been our problem. Being wildly uneven isn't too bad a place to start from but it's bloody annoying to watch. If you can pick up a TBP away at Toulon (which we did), you really shouldn't be receiving a wedgie home and away from Cardiff Blues second team (which we also did).

George Carlin wrote:Just saw this thread. I see that the numerous posters lining up to sledge Glasgow have become strangely quiet after 18 October.
I wonder why that is.

Not to worry. Anyone who follows either Scottish team is well used to graceless, cliched and hopelessly ill-informed commentary from people who have quite literally never watched either side play and couldn't pick any of their players out of a police line-up.

My problem was actually watching Glasgow play - until I watched the match against Ulster I assumed they would beat Bath. Having seen that game I changed my mind.

I don't think it was necessarily people slating Glasgow. I think it was more TJ (who I understand isn't a Glasgow fan) saying he thought they were the best side in Europe.

I can't speak for others but I replied that they had never proven themselves in Europe (to date) so that was some claim. A sound beating of Bath goes some way towards peruading those of us who don't watch them week-in week-out. A great result. We can take stock again after a few more rounds.

It was also possibly some reactionary posting to TJ's, shall we way, "hyperbolic" posting style

Well said Cyril.

Cyril wrote:I don't think it was necessarily people slating Glasgow. I think it was more TJ (who I understand isn't a Glasgow fan) saying he thought they were the best side in Europe.

I can't speak for others but I replied that they had never proven themselves in Europe (to date) so that was some claim. A sound beating of Bath goes some way towards peruading those of us who don't watch them week-in week-out. A great result. We can take stock again after a few more rounds.

It was also possibly some reactionary posting to TJ's, shall we way, "hyperbolic" posting style

I actually said some of the best rugby, one of the best teams, possibly in the best form and I asked who was in better form right now?  Also that this was my opinion not an established fact. Glasgow need to back this up with away wins in France and England and to top the group.   .Well within their grasp but they still have to do it on the pitch as I also said.

So enough arguing about what I said / didn't say. who are the contenders after the first round? Who looks good and who have the form and the depth of squad to get thru to the QFs?

Glasgow? Sarries? Toulon? ( I didn't see either play) Leinster? Leicester?

TJ wrote:So enough arguing about what I said / didn't say.  who are the contenders after the first round?  Who looks good and who have the form and the depth of squad to get thru to the QFs?

Glasgow?  Sarries?  Toulon?  ( I didn't see either play) Leinster?  Leicester?

no to the last.

LondonTiger wrote:Pool 3 - Leicester and Ulster will both be relieved by their own points haul but also Toulon failing to get the TBP over Scarlets. Must win match for Ulster next weekend, though same can be said for Leicester and Scarlets. I reckon that toulon will be in ensure LBP mode, so Ulster could get their ball rolling. Can Leicester repeat their last Euro visit to Parc y Scarlets?

No, I'm not at all. We're now in the position that to win the group we probably need to win our next five games including away to Toulon which is very unlikely. If we lose our next game we are basically out. We're now looking at aiming for a runners-up spot and an away quarter-final. I'll be happy if we get it but that was a beatable Leicester team we faced and a real contender would have taken 4 points, not 1. No disrespect meant. It just winning those kinds of games is the difference between champions and also-rans and we looked like also-rans.

To be fair, in 2012 we were eighth seeds and got to the Final. We would have been the first team ever to win it from being bottom seeds and we started that group with getting nothing against Leicester at Welford Road. It also easier to qualify in that there are three runners-up spots out of five, not two out of six. But it's not exactly how you want to get it done. An away win to start was very important for us and we messed up.

As for Leicester, I don't see how a team with aspirations to be contenders can possibly be happy with scoring three tries in the first-half and not getting the bonus point in the second in such a tight group. I was baffled at the attitude of Danny Care after the game. He was interviewed and he was in a good enough mood after not getting the TBP nailed in the second half. He was like 'It would have been nice to get the fourth try, but oh well' That to me is crazy from a Captain. He should have been spitting nails! It was a massive missed opportunity to inflict the kind of psychological wound we inflicted upon them in previous visits to Ravenhill (33-0 and 41-7) by stepping up and dominating the second half. They would have shortened their odds to top the group considerably by getting a 5-0 points spread and given them a huge amount of momentum. Instead we got a bonus point out of them. It might come down to the 2 games between the two teams and they had a chance to make it really hard for us to pull back level with them at Ravenhill. Now we just need to get 4-0 at home to better them on the head to head record when we could have/should have needed 5-0 just to take it to points difference. Big difference there.

I think Ulster imploded mentally and Leicester gave us too much respect as a side instead of being ruthless. They let us back into it. Neither side look psychologically capable of winning this competition to me. I'd say both sets of fans have good reason to feel very downbeat in the wake of that game.

For genuine contenders, there's so much pressure on home games now that I wonder whether the players and coaches prefer away games where the pressure is off a bit?

Agree with Notch that Ulster (with hopes before the game) and Tigers (after the first half) should both be a bit disappointed with how the points ended up.

I'm not so sure that they'll be disappointed. Cockers and his rockers are a very pragmatic bunch and they would have bitten your hand off for a 4-1 win before the game, I doubt they would have forgotten about this just because they were 3 tries up at HT. They knew the quality of Ulster would only become more prominent as the match went on, given the weakness of the bench.

Also Danny Care is a very baffling man, so much so that I didn't even realise he played

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:Also Danny Care is a very baffling man, so much so that I didn't even realise he played

all scrum-halves look the same.

Leicester were not great but as their long list of injured players come back they will improve. Whether they can improve by December when they play Toulon twice I do not know.

Cyril wrote:

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:Also Danny Care is a very baffling man, so much so that I didn't even realise he played

all scrum-halves look the same.

What even Peter Stringer? Only if you're watching Lord of the Rings and expect an evil hobbit to pop up at 9.

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:I'm not so sure that they'll be disappointed. Cockers and his rockers are a very pragmatic bunch and they would have bitten your hand off for a 4-1 win before the game, I doubt they would have forgotten about this just because they were 3 tries up at HT. They knew the quality of Ulster would only become more prominent as the match went on, given the weakness of the bench.

Also Danny Care is a very baffling man, so much so that I didn't even realise he played

Ah, you know who I mean; the scrum-half, the England one... his brother is the hooker. He's nearly good enough to make me remember his name but not quite. That one

Ben Youngs..

I thought he actually had a good game for a change.

Notch, I think he was happy the team got a win. It's well documented regarding their injury list, lack of form and new defensive patterns so to win against an Ulster outfit that beat Glasgow is good.

Yes there will be some disappointments but for where they are as a team at the moment, that was a good performace.

The Ulster outfit that beat Glasgow now has to marmalise the sluggish Toulon!  Now that's the heading I want to see next:  Toulon Turfed by Toucan League Triers

Notch wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Pool 3 - Leicester and Ulster will both be relieved by their own points haul

No, I'm not at all.

I meant that Leicester would be relieved to have a win as they have been pretty pants this season, and from the position at half time, Ulster relieved to get a point.

Winning away is ultimately what will decide the groups.

I feel the pressure is generally more on the home teams as they are expected to win.

We'll see if any of the teams who won at home this round can follow it up with an away one.

beshocked wrote:Winning away is ultimately what will decide the groups.

I feel the pressure is generally more on the home teams as they are expected to win.

We'll see if any of the teams who won at home this round can follow it up with an away one.

The best sides try to win away.  That's an emphasis I'm placing pointedly.  I think the craftier sides will always place more emphasis, despite all the media chat otherwise, on picking off a home side's complacency - that is to say, getting an away win.  And you're right, winning away is the key.

So, the idea that pressure is on the home team to win at home is an emphasis that can cloak the truth.  The pressure is actually on the away team to use the opposition's home game potential complacency to achieve the golden goal of an away win.  If you're a side with your mind on keeping a good home record and then not being too disappointed if you can't win away (happy with losing bonus points), then you're on a slippy mental slope.

Munster won away because it was an imperative for them - and they kept going.  They know the drill more than most and know how important it is to dominate away, when least expected to.
Ulster are disappointed for the same reason - it was an away win chance lost.
Toulon looked disinterested last weekend at home.  I think they'll be a different beast in Ulster as they try to make the away statistics count in their favour.

It's a two edged sword.  You have to win your home games (pressure on).  But losing the chance of the Cup comes from the idea that you can afford the away losses (pressure off)

Secretfly obviously you should go into every game with a must win attitude but there's no point beating yourself up if you lose away as much as if you lose at home as a loss at home gives someone an away win which is more damaging.

Munster needed to win agreed - especially as Sale are the weakest side in the pool - an away win for Clermont and Saracens there is necessary also.

It will be interesting to see what approach Saracens take vs Munster and this will hinge on who they pick at 10.

Personally I would carry on with Hodgson - he masterminded the win over Clermont, I would trust him against Munster too.

no...you do beat yourself up in losing away.  Each and every time.

Just can't agree with your philosophy that you shouldn't put undue mental pressure on yourself to win those away games.  It's the teams who do put the mental pressure on themselves and the teams that come to an away ground with the attitude of 'f**k the losing bonus point' that tend to be most aggressive in the contest, most troublesome for the opposition and give themselves the best chance of winning it.

If you don't play the mind games that other teams expect of you (for example that one about teams satisfying themselves with losing bonus points in tough away venues) then you give yourself a competitive edge.  If the home team expects you to satisfy yourself with a well earned losing bonus point, and you show them you're not satisfied - then you have the edge mentally.  Because even a home side feels the fatigue.  They're willing you to settle for the point and move on.  When you show you're not in the mood to settle for scraps, it unsettles them in turn

Worked for Saints.

Yeah, it works everytime was my whole entire point.

It works absolutely every time you try it