The ERCC groups - how they look now

First topic message reminder :

So three weeks before kick-off of the Euro cup and where do the various teams stand

Leinster-Harlequins-Castres-Wasps

After dog rough groups in past few years, Leinster should be feeling reasonably happy with Quins in a bit of a crisis, Castres propping up the T14 although Wasps are in the top half of the Prem. Leinster have been no great shakes so far but you'd have to think this group is there for the winning unless Quins improve dramatically, Castres display some interest in the proceedings for once and Wasps improve a bit more. Verdict - Leinster to win with enough points for a home QF

Sale-Munster-Saracens-Clermont

Munster, currently playing total sh1te, in serious danger of being dumped out before the knockouts with the two big beasts of Sarries and Clermont fighting it out for top slot. Suspect Sarries will top the group with enough for a home QF

Leicester-Ulster-Toulon-Scarlets

Hard to see beyond Toulon and a home QF here to be honest, Leicester and Ulster probably fighting it out for second place

Glasgow-Bath-Toulouse-Montpelier

This must be the best chance Glasgow have ever had of topping a group and a likely home QF. Toulouse in apparent total disarray at joint bottom of T14, Montpelier in mid-table of T14 and will be predictably useless in their away matches. Between Glasgow and an apparently resurgent Bath - but will go for Glasgow

Racing Metro-Northampton-Ospreys-Treviso

Two will go defo through from this group with Treviso there for 10 points to be taken. Ospreys top of Pro12, Saints up high in Prem - think it will be between the two of them with Saints likely to shade it. RM's useless away form means they may lose out

So group wins for Leinster, Saracens, Toulon, Glasgow and Northampton (not sure in which order for home QF's - with the 3 runner-up slots going to Clermont, Ospreys and either Ulster/Leicester or Bath

Thoughts

Yes Wayne I went to both matches.

I feel that overconfidence also played it's part for the O's. O's had trounced Saracens so easily in the LV cup as I call it that there was a bit of swagger.

On paper Ospreys probably had the better team but as you say - one world class player made the difference on the day.

the saint sorry what's your point? Did you know that not every team can win a trophy every season? It's important to be in the mix and be a contender though. Got to be in it to win it. If you can consistently get to latter stages then eventually one would expect the trophies to come in time.

To be honest I think the Ospreys team of 2008 is better than this Glasgow side but that's just me.

My point is along the same lines as Secretfly I think. Some of us prefer to make predictions on form instead of what's happened in the last 10 years...

Form? How about form in Europe?

In all likelihood Glasgow will fail again like they have in basically every European competition.

You're making a prediction but not factoring everything in.

If you're so confident go to the bookies.

As for previous matches - they are important.

People repeatedly write off Munster every year yet they carried on defying expectations by showing themselves as a threat in the HC.

Don't think - oh look Glasgow are tearing up the Pro12 - it means they'll destroy every other side in Europe. It's not that simple.

The European competition? I don't think a ball has been kicked in that yet..... Unless I've been asleep for a few weeks?

I think you totally misunderstand me. All I have been saying is that this year I'm one of ones expecting Glasgow to compete in Europe. They're more consistent than their pool opponents so advantage is in their favour. We'll see how good or bad they are in their home game against Bath.

[quote="beshocked"]Yes Wayne I went to both matches.

I feel that overconfidence also played it's part for the O's. O's had trounced Saracens so easily in the LV cup as I call it that there was a bit of swagger.

On paper Ospreys probably had the better team  but as you say - one world class player made the difference on the day.

the saint sorry what's your point? Did you know that not every team can win a trophy every season? It's important to be in the mix and be a contender though.  Got to be in it to win it. If you can consistently get to latter stages then eventually one would expect the trophies to come in time.

To be honest I think the Ospreys team of 2008 is better than this Glasgow side but that's just me.[/quote
How did we miss each other? Later on that season we beat Leicester in that Final, it was the EDF Cup, yes we were confident, more than likely Lyn the Lip was overconfident, the following season we reached the QF of the HC, as a Group runner up, we ended up funnily enough being absolutely slaughtered by Munster. Can I tell you the Joker had said when he had been coach of Neath that he had taken them as far as he could and yet he was still appointed head coach of the Ospreys. I'm not going to comment on your last statement, I don't want another war on here.

The Saint

No it hasn't. What's your point?

We'll see if Glasgow can compete for once.

You're the one talking about league form having a significant impact on the European competition not me.

Bear in mind the 2008 Ospreys team effectively won the GS for Wales.

My point is this, we can't judge teams form in Europe when the comp hasn't started....

I'm not really.... I'm just saying how I think Glasgow will go. You're blowing everything out of proportion.

Hound of Harrow wrote:Hmmm. I have seen 4 of Glasgow's last 6 competitive games. They were run very close by Munster in their Pro12 s/f. Then got pumped by Leinster in the final.

This season they nearly contrived to lose to an out of sorts Leinster, who didn't fire a shot for 65 minutes (and were, rescued by a last minute penalty. The easily beat a Blues team that didn't create a chance of note.

The games I didn't see were the last two against Dragons and Connact, which were not on terrestrial TV. Both Glasgow wins - Dragons have been woeful this season and Connacht are not exactly a Pro12 powerhouse despite their unbeaten start up to that point.

I'm not saying that Glasgow can't succeed, but they will face sterner tests against better attacking teams in their Pool. Certainly their opening two games v Bath (H) and Montpellier (A) will tell us more.

Seems reasonable - I fully expect to get called out if Glasgow get humped.

LordDowlais wrote:Didn't Glasgow lose home and away to the Cardiff Blues in Europe last year ? They cannot be doing things like that and expect to get the respect from others that they claim they deserve, Glasgow in the league are formidable, especially with how their Fijians are playing, Matawalu is some player, but until they are regular quarter finalists to finalist's then in Europe they are just also rans.

Indeed they did - a mix of early season rustyness, complacency and a very good tactical game by the Blues.

Historically of course they are nowhere in Europe however the way they have played since those two games and the improvement is immense. Glasgow claim nothing. Its me that are saying they are real contenders and playing some great rugby right now.

It's just my honest assessment TJ. As Fly more or less said, a team's European ascent to the top of the pole starts somewhere (and often has some disappointments along the way).

Lawd knows Scotland's international team need an injection of confidence, and maybe Glasgow can provide it.

Bath are looking good this season, but I tip Montpellier to top the Pool. Much will depend on Glasgow picking up an away win and garnering lbp's plus tbp's to progress.

One thing the new qualification/seedin process* means is that there are some tough Pools.

* I expect this to be altered to take account of the play offs in each league.

BTW.... is them bloomin' Glasgow fellas the only side competing this year?  Sounds like it by all the comments on 'em!  

So my hunch is going to be perfect this year - Glasgow to cruise through their pool without even using one of their main players, easy quarterfinal victory, sensational semi final victory and a record score in the final should see them easily take the new Cup.

Fly, there are two kinds of matches this year:
- Matches that Glasgow are winning
- Matches not involving Glasgow.

From the Pro12's point of view, I would say, "ON CURRENT FORM", that Glasgow look the best bet to carry the league in Europe, but they are NOT the best European team in the Pro12, that accolade would have to go to Leinster, and then Munster respectively, it's all well and good being able to travel down to South Wales and turn teams over, but when it comes to travelling to very hostile places in France and to very experienced sides in England an Ireland, when the game has a bit more of an edge to it, then we can see if Glasgow's credentials stand up to the mark, it's these "tests" that make or break a team, and I will be very interested to see how they go in Europe this year.

LordDowlais wrote:From the Pro12's point of view, I would say, "ON CURRENT FORM", that Glasgow look the best bet to carry the league in Europe, but they are NOT the best European team in the Pro12, that accolade would have to go to Leinster, and then Munster respectively, it's all well and good being able to travel down to South Wales and turn teams over, but when it comes to travelling to very hostile places in France and to very experienced sides in England an Ireland, when the game has a bit more of an edge to it, then we can see if Glasgow's credentials stand up to the mark, it's these "tests" that make or break a team, and I will be very interested to see how they go in Europe this year.

Correct on all fronts. But then, I guess that's what everyone is roughly saying. Test begins. Glasgow have been rising steadily into the top of Pro12 over the last few years. It doesn't seem to be a fluke - it's consistent.
So they're getting to the point where they have to start trying to seriously extend their influence beyond Pro12 now. They've had a few years of consolidating stuff in Pro12 and their ambitions have to start stretching seriously into Europe now, if they want to gain the knowledge of how to go the notch up in performance terms to European levels.

That's the test and I guess this is year one with a new competition to have a stab at making their presence felt. We'll see whether they are gaining the extra gears to operate towards the top in Europe or at least make their present notable.

Glasgow had a tidy enough group last season but failed miserably i wouldn't put my money on them progressing as i think they are more of a summer rugby team.

But yeah they can beat pretty much anyone in the good days of April/May.

LordDowlais wrote:From the Pro12's point of view, I would say, "ON CURRENT FORM", that Glasgow look the best bet to carry the league in Europe, but they are NOT the best European team in the Pro12, that accolade would have to go to Leinster, and then Munster respectively, it's all well and good being able to travel down to South Wales and turn teams over, but when it comes to travelling to very hostile places in France and to very experienced sides in England an Ireland, when the game has a bit more of an edge to it, then we can see if Glasgow's credentials stand up to the mark, it's these "tests" that make or break a team, and I will be very interested to see how they go in Europe this year.

It will be interesting to see how Glasgow get on. I will rate them as a top European side when they start winning in Europe. Until then I will think of them as possibles rather than probables.

Exiledinborders wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:From the Pro12's point of view, I would say, "ON CURRENT FORM", that Glasgow look the best bet to carry the league in Europe, but they are NOT the best European team in the Pro12, that accolade would have to go to Leinster, and then Munster respectively, it's all well and good being able to travel down to South Wales and turn teams over, but when it comes to travelling to very hostile places in France and to very experienced sides in England an Ireland, when the game has a bit more of an edge to it, then we can see if Glasgow's credentials stand up to the mark, it's these "tests" that make or break a team, and I will be very interested to see how they go in Europe this year.

It will be interesting to see how Glasgow get on. I will rate them as a top European side when they start winning in Europe. Until then I will think of them as possibles rather than probables.

Having just watched Bath demolish Saracens I am even mote convinced that they will win their group.

Really? apart from the speed of a couple of their backs and some great individual plays I saw nothing to worry Glasgow :-) They won't find Glasgows defence as poorly organised and the speed at which Glasgow play will be a test for them. Glasgow play at a pace I have not seen any AP tem play at. I am really looking forwad to the Bath / Glasgow games tho - should be really good entertainment and then we will see how good Glasgow really are.

TJ wrote:Really?  apart from the speed of a couple of their backs and some great individual plays I saw nothing to worry Glasgow :-)  They won't find Glasgows defence as poorly organised and the speed at which Glasgow play will be a test for them.  Glasgow play at a pace I have not seen any AP tem play at. I am really looking forwad to the Bath / Glasgow games tho - should be really good entertainment and then we will see how good Glasgow really are.

Yes I am sure that is right. Sarries are a very poorly organised defensive team and Glasgow are a real force.


Oh hang on! I have woken up and here in the real world Sarries are the losing finalist from last year's Heineken Cup and have a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in Europe. Glasgow on the other hand are a team that came bottom of their pool and shipped fifty one points in one of their matches.

Seriously bud, untwist your panties.

European rugby is a step up from the leagues. Glasgow haven't ever stepped up yet. They are a joy to watch at times in the league though. I hope they can do it in Europe. But I'll believe it when I see it.

Since when was a 10 point win a demolition...

Well there you go. Glasgows first game against Bath. Complete demolition. 37 / 10 and the only scores Bath got were a dodgy pen and a a try from a fumbled kick - ie a gift. Bath could not live with the pace and intensity of Glasgow, rarely looked threatening whereas Glasgow left about 20 pts on the field and were breaking thru at will.

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:Really?  apart from the speed of a couple of their backs and some great individual plays I saw nothing to worry Glasgow :-)  They won't find Glasgows defence as poorly organised and the speed at which Glasgow play will be a test for them.  Glasgow play at a pace I have not seen any AP tem play at. I am really looking forwad to the Bath / Glasgow games tho - should be really good entertainment and then we will see how good Glasgow really are.

Yes I am sure that is right. Sarries are a very poorly organised defensive team and Glasgow are a real force.


Oh hang on! I have woken up and here in the real world Sarries are the losing finalist from last year's Heineken Cup and have a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in Europe. Glasgow on the other hand are a team that came bottom of their pool and shipped fifty one points in one of their matches.

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:Really?  apart from the speed of a couple of their backs and some great individual plays I saw nothing to worry Glasgow :-)  They won't find Glasgows defence as poorly organised and the speed at which Glasgow play will be a test for them.  Glasgow play at a pace I have not seen any AP tem play at. I am really looking forwad to the Bath / Glasgow games tho - should be really good entertainment and then we will see how good Glasgow really are.

Yes I am sure that is right. Sarries are a very poorly organised defensive team and Glasgow are a real force.

Oh hang on! I have woken up and here in the real world Sarries are the losing finalist from last year's Heineken Cup and have a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in Europe. Glasgow on the other hand are a team that came bottom of their pool and shipped fifty one points in one of their matches.

Boom!  

Don't worry, Glasgow have beaten better sides and will beat better sides. Their style of play is hard to prepare for if you don't face it every week but they can be outmuscled up front. I don't quite see them winning this thing with the pack they have but they are a side to respect.

I think Wasps can turn over Leinster. And that any of Quins, Wasps or Leinster could win our group, I'm still confident that if we can get the pack a bit better and the handling improves, we'll click and will be unrecognisable. It happens in short spells now, the handling is what is really letting us down

Still yet to see Leinster's form, it all hangs on them in our pool I feel. Wasps and Quins will be very competitive but we all know that if Leinster bring their A game it'll be their pool to top.

How have Leinster been this season in the Rabo?

Not very good for Leinster this season in short, lot of unhappy fans over selection, tactics... they've lost both their games against other Irish teams and that really hurts, especially getting knocked over at home by Munster. Big, big pressure on O'Connor already. Can't afford anything less than a good performance and a good win. Their form is mediocre and it needs turned around very quickly.

They are playing about as well as we were around the Irish/Sarries matches

Still a couple of games to go and I missed some of them but who is looking good this year? Leicester? Glasgow? Didn't see the Sarries game but they have looked good this season.

Unless they improve a fair bit I didn't see anyone today who looks likely to beat Toulon come the knock-out stages.  Best candidate, despite losing, maybe Clermont, but combined with their choking culture I wouldn't put even a small amount of money on them.

I think Glasgow if they get get their main choices props back can give Toulon a good run for their money on a sunny afternoon.

I didn't see the toulon game - how did they look?

Sarries, Glasgow, Ospreys on five points, Plenty on 4. Will Bonus points be crucial with 3 best losers to go thru?

Who looks like the form teams now?

TJ wrote:I didn't see the toulon game - how did they look?  



Sarries, Glasgow, Ospreys on five points,   Plenty on 4.  Will Bonus points be crucial with 3 best losers to go thru?

Who looks like the form teams now?

For me  - didn't see the whole game but the bit I did see, it looked like they were going through the motions.  Doing enough to do enough and no more.  If that was so then they have much more easily in the tank.  If I'm reading their intentions wrongly then they're probably suffering some from losing the certainty factor of Wilkinson which might make them vulnerable down the line.

Kudos to Scarlets defense for shutting down Toulon though. That said they were not inspired and jury is still out on them.

whocares wrote:Kudos to Scarlets defense for shutting down Toulon though. That said they were not inspired and jury is still out on them.

Well said. And in all fairness the breakdown was a lottery that was awarded in one direction, Toulon.

Away wins and Bonus points will be vital so:

Pool 1 - Honours even between Sarries and Clermont with both getting bonus points. Munsters great comeback potentially gives them the advantage. however it also virtually eliminates Sale who could be resting players bythe time the December matches with Sarries come around.

Pool 2 - With Leinster and Quins on the road next week, things will become much clearer.

Pool 3 - Leicester and Ulster will both be relieved by their own points haul but also Toulon failing to get the TBP over Scarlets. Must win match for Ulster next weekend, though same can be said for Leicester and Scarlets. I reckon that toulon will be in ensure LBP mode, so Ulster could get their ball rolling. Can Leicester repeat their last Euro visit to Parc y Scarlets?

Pool 4 - The TBP point Glasgow got could be very precious. Home wins at the weekend will be the favoured option, so all could have one win each.

Pool 5 - Saints will be bitterly disappointed by the last gasp try on Saturday. They simply have to beat Ospreys well. Racing will hope for a TBP in Italy.

whocares wrote:Kudos to Scarlets defense for shutting down Toulon though. That said they were not inspired and jury is still out on them.

Yup, Scarlets' defensive line speed and first up tackling disrupted Toulon for long periods. This surprised me as Scarlets have looked a bit 'tackle shy' in the two Pro12 games I've watched.

It was not a fluid game from either team, and Scarlets briefly led 10-8 only to concede to a charged down kick immediately after going ahead

A piece of Giteau magic to give Toulon the lead, and David Smith's menace out wide were the plus points for Toulon.

Scarlets grabbed a consolation score at the end with Toulon looking for a tbp.

Watched the Toulon / Scarlets game on French TV yesterday and to say that Toulon are cocky is understating it.

When interviewed at half time with the game still very much alive one of the Toulon coaching staff stated that their goal for the 2nd half was to get the 4 try winning bonus point and that's exactly how they played in 2nd half.

Now I know they have a team full of confident superstars but there's a difference between confidence and downright arrogance.

Londontiger can't say I agree.

Honours weren't even - it was 5-1 in terms of points between Saracens-Clermont. Allowing Saracens the try bonus point could come back to haunt them. Only 1 of 3 teams to pick up a try bonus - this was against one of the strongest sides in Europe.

Whoever wins Munster vs Saracens will definitely hold the advantage in this pool.

Leinster could regret not picking up a try bonus. Wasps should be happy with the lbp but could have got more.

Leicester will be annoyed they failed to get a try bonus after 3 first half tries and they allowed Ulster a losing bonus point after that nice first half lead.

Glasgow picked up an useful try bonus but will need to win away I feel to progress.

So... any results at the weekend that were not dependent on the referee's interpretation?

The ref always...always...controls the game. The 'just let us play and get on with it' theory don't work. As soon as the ref blows his whistle to start, he influences the game's result.
And even a ref who................em, let's a game 'flow' and is considered the best kind of ref, is usually a ref who overlooks infringements to let..... the game flow. So he's 'technically' wrong too.

To be honest of the 4 games I saw I thought the officials did a pretty good job.

I am just glad that the ref who I feel was one of the worst in the world has now retired.

I have to agree with beshocked there. It's a great BP for Sarries to get, and one they won't have been expecting. Clermont picking up the LBP limits the damage a little, but for me that's a big step for Sarries as I don't think there'll be many other TBPs in that group...

Overall from what I watched I thought that was a cracking week-end of rugby. Glasgow impressed me the most, and if they can keep that form up they're serious contenders to go all the way.

For all the complaining and moaning of various posters (from both camps) throughout the build-up I do feel the opening week-end more than lived up to expectations.

I really don't like this (fairly new) tendency of all fans complaining about refs though, it gets really annoying and a bit too much like football for my liking. Refs have different interpretations, part of the challenge of the European Cup is adjusting to that (French refs much kinder to the defensive team at the breakdown, etc.). At the end of the day, a ref doesn't decide the result, the players skills and/or mistakes do...

I can quite easily see Sarries getting nothing in Montferrand. for me 4-1 would would have been advantage Clermont, 5-0 advantage Sarries.


As to Leicester throwing away a TBP and gifting an LBP - well after losing our last 3 Euro games against Ulster I was happy with a win.

Exactly mad for chelsea. It's about the bigger picture -teams need to look at not just topping the pool but getting a home quarter final. With only 3 teams getting a try bonus it nudges us marginly ahead of our rivals.

I feel that Saracens must win 4 out of 5 (probably munster home and away plus sale home and way) if they want to top the pool. A very tough task and unlikely but that's what they must do.


Saints in particular must be kicking themselves - 0 points in one of the easier pools in my opinion simply isn't good enough IMO.

Londontiger perhaps but I think Saracens are more than good enough to get within 7 of Clermont. I guess we don't really know till both legs have been played. They've also got rid of the psychological baggage of 3 hammerings by Clermont with 2 victories of their own albeit with "home" advantage.

beshocked wrote:To be honest of the 4 games I saw I thought the officials did a pretty good job.

I am just glad that the ref who I feel was one of the worst in the world has now retired.

Thats good. Its just all a bit on here with the first response to any result not going how fans would anticipate.

Its all forward passes, how did the ref miss that/ what on earth was he blowing up for or why was that a card?/ I mean its not a proper assault as he didnt use weapons...

beshocked wrote:Exactly mad for chelsea. It's about the bigger picture -teams need to look at not just topping the pool but getting a home quarter final. With only 3 teams getting a try bonus it nudges us marginly ahead of our rivals.

TBH I wasn't even really thinking about home quarters. It's more that in what strikes me as a pretty strong group (admittedly you could say the same for most groups this year) I don't see many TBPs being picked up so getting one is IMO a huge advantage. As I said Clermont avoided the worst but...

Agreed about Northampton, feel they're still in with a chance though, but not getting anything from a game could well come back to bite them up the @rse...

I think you guys are right about variation in individual interpretations between referees. In a sport as technical as rugby, such variation is inevitable, particularly with referees from different countries with different rugby traditions. Obviously it's difficult when results go against your team, but I try my very best (sometimes unsuccessfully) not to criticise referees for their calls.

However, there are also issues of basic competence that must be maintained, and these have nothing to do with interpreting the rules of rugby. My main sources of annoyance with referees are:
1) Missing obvious misdemeanours that are right in front of them;
2) Relying too much on the TMO, or failing to control the inquiries of the TMO;
3) Allowing play to creep to close to a player receiving treatment to a neck/head injury;
4) Failing or refusing to communicate with the captains

lostinwales well that's generally going to be the case - especially if your favoured side loses.

Mad in Chelsea I am saying it because even best runners up are for grabs. Every single point could be important.

It's why Toulon should be kicking themselves for not getting the 5 pointer as Scarlets are arguably the weakest side.

I would say order of pool strength IMO:

Pool 1
Pool 3
Pool 4
Pool 2
Pool 5