Changing of the guard in European Rugby?

I'm looking forward to the upcoming start of European competition.  I hope the new format doesn't mean we lose the sting from the HC.  However, in gearing up for the RCC what has struck me is just how much change the 3 leagues have seen over the start of this season.  There seems to have been a monumental shift....

Toulouse bottom of the Top14.  (Yes thats right - the 4 times HC winners)
Clermont having 50 put past them by Bordeaux who are seemingly one of the strongest outfits in the Top14 this season.
Leicester Tigers at almost certainly their lowest point for many many seasons. (recent losses to a very average London Irish, a poor Gloucester and the hammering by Bath)
Leinster and Munster both looking incredibly average thus far in my opinion.
Bath and Glasgow both on fire and in the same group(cannot wait for those head to heads)
Toulon, Saints, Saracens and Ulster are holding ground or pretty close to it - but its radical change everywhere else.
As for the Welsh teams - I think it will be similar to last season as well, 1 in the Top 4 of the Rabo (if even) and pretty mediocre campaigns for Ospreys and Scarlets in Europe.

I'm thinking potentially 4 quarter finalists this season, that weren't there in the latter stages of last season.  Anyone thinking the same?  Feel free to slaughter me if I'm completely wrong by the end of the groups.

Wasn't a few years ago that the Tigers lost the first 5 games in the league? And only won something like 1 in the first 8. They still made it to the playoffs. So not even their worst start to a season recently (although some of he performances have been shocking).

As for the new guard, no idea. That's why I watch, to find out. If we do have a new lot of finalists it would be great wouldn't it? I mean, the same three Irish teams, Toulouse, Toulon and Clermont, Saracens, Saints, Tigers and Quins. Generally it would be 8 from them. So if Glasgow make it in. Or Bath, or Ospreys, or anyone else, that would be great.

HammerofThunor wrote:Wasn't a few years ago that the Tigers lost the first 5 games in the league? And only won something like 1 in the first 8. They still made it to the playoffs. So not even their worst start to a season recently (although some of he performances have been shocking).

As for the new guard, no idea. That's why I watch, to find out. If we do have a new lot of finalists it would be great wouldn't it? I mean, the same three Irish teams, Toulouse, Toulon and Clermont, Saracens, Saints, Tigers and Quins. Generally it would be 8 from them. So if Glasgow make it in. Or Bath, or Ospreys, or anyone else, that would be great.

With regard to Tigers - its the nature of the losses and the fact that they just don't look remotely Tigerish. They have injury concerns but so do many other teams. The performance against Bath ...... they just didn't look to be in the same league as Bath. Same for the London Irish loss at Welford Road, they just look incredibly unTigerish. Haven't seen the Gloucester game highlights, will catch them later, but I saw Gloucesters opening game against Saints and they were terrible. These are really alarming results for Tigers.

With regard Bath and Glasgow - I cannot wait for that group. Those are going to be epic head to heads.

Artful_Dodger wrote:I'm looking forward to the upcoming start of European competition.  I hope the new format doesn't mean we lose the sting from the HC.  However, in gearing up for the RCC what has struck me is just how much change the 3 leagues have seen over the start of this season.  There seems to have been a monumental shift....

Toulouse bottom of the Top14.  (Yes thats right - the 4 times HC winners)
Clermont having 50 put past them by Bordeaux who are seemingly one of the strongest outfits in the Top14 this season.
Leicester Tigers at almost certainly their lowest point for many many seasons. (recent losses to a very average London Irish, a poor Gloucester and the hammering by Bath)
Leinster and Munster both looking incredibly average thus far in my opinion.
Bath and Glasgow both on fire and in the same group(cannot wait for those head to heads)
Toulon, Saints, Saracens and Ulster are holding ground or pretty close to it - but its radical change everywhere else.
As for the Welsh teams - I think it will be similar to last season as well, 1 in the Top 4 of the Rabo (if even) and pretty mediocre campaigns for Ospreys and Scarlets in Europe.

I'm thinking potentially 4 quarter finalists this season, that weren't there in the latter stages of last season.  Anyone thinking the same?  Feel free to slaughter me if I'm completely wrong by the end of the groups.

What are you basing your assertion of Irish and Gloucester on?  Gloucester are improving game on game, with a new coaching set up and lots of new players, and Irish have played some decent stuff so far and as well as beating Leicester have taken points off all of last seasons top 4.

Artful_Dodger wrote:
I'm thinking potentially 4 quarter finalists this season, that weren't there in the latter stages of last season.  Anyone thinking the same?  Feel free to slaughter me if I'm completely wrong by the end of the groups.

I'm feeling so confident you're wrong that I'm not going to wait.  I'm just going to go ahead and slaughter you now

No........... em, seriously.  Perhaps you do see a revolutionary changing of the guard in the early stages of all three leagues, Dodger.... but I think maybe its a little bit of optical illusion merged with an overdose of excitement at the arrival of something new.  Afterall, fans wouldn't be blamed for getting caught up in the buzz of New competition, new structures... and gotta have some new super teams to go with that!!!!!!!

Perhaps.

Me though, I see a few possible alternative scenarios:  

The first one is that this season is by no means a regular season.  It's not just that the New European competition is on the horizon or that the Pro12 has undergone a pretty dramatic change of structures itself - it is also - (and people have to keep remembering this - although most of them always seem to forget it) - it's also the season before a World Cup.  That's hugely significant.  National systems will be trying to fine tune the run-in and will be having hidden influences that won't be admitted to in public but will undoubtedly be there humming in the background.  And players themselves (whether established Internationals or new hopefuls) will also be influenced by the approaching WC in their performances.  As I keep saying - some of the 'established' stars might feel sunconsciously feel the urge to stay away from too much trouble, whilst the new hopefuls will feel eager to really stamp their names in the minds of National coaches.  So all that subliminal thinking about the WC will undoubedly throw up seeming wobbles in club performances.

The second scenario might be simply that under the new climate of a new European competition, some sides might be letting the excitement get to them, whilst other more 'experienced' Euro sides might become even MORE crafty and cynical in their preparations for that more sturdy and competitive contest.  The sides that have whimpered to a start in their respective leagues might be holding back and keeping their cards close to their chest.  Afterall, this new contest is marketed as a more real test and a more genuine competition based on merit.  So............ if you know your Euro challengers are looking more keenly at you, wondering where your strengths and weaknesses are - are you really going to show them everything until the clashes happen?  The wisest European sides haven't suddenly become dumb overnight.  Beware rope-a-dope.

Ozzy - Just to clarify, my post wasn't meant as a pop at London Irish.  I think they are looking much better than last season and will be aiming for around mid table this season.  But its still pretty alarming for Tigers to lose against a decent but unremarkable London Irish side at Welford Road.

Fly, I might be inclined to agree were it one or two of  the top sides.  Perhaps with all the change you couldn't read much into it.  However, Toulouse bottom of the Top14, Leinster really looking very ordinary, not just this season but for much of last season and the aforementioned situation at Tigers.  I can't help but feel that we may see some giants or aristocrats in the form of Toulouse eliminated from the top tier of European rugby.

Artful Leicester we were 11th as recent as 2011 and a steve mafi try against falcons stopped us being 12th.

 Also would say we are close to where we were last season in terms of table position.

I wasn't taking it as a dig Dodger, just wondered what you were basing your opinion on. The AP is tight this year, with all teams looking capable of beating the others, with the exception of the top 3 and bottom 1.

Also not sure that league form has that much relevance in Europe.

I think most of the replies thus far are dealing with my comments as singular issues. Really what I'm trying to establish is that a raft of teams who have been at the top tier of European competition for quite some significant time could be unraveling.

You can point to Tigers having an even worse start to the season in 2011, or Leinster starting slowly in other seasons. On this occasion however, I'm suggesting that recent changes at the start of the season could signal the end of a trend whereby we always see some of the same old faces at the latter end of European competition. This coincides with a change in format of European competition, coincidentally.

On top of the above, we are seeing a lot of hammerings in unexpected places - see Bordeaux putting 50 past Clermont and Bath vs Tigers. I'm just putting it out there that this could herald the start of something new. Particularly given that I think if you fall out of the top tier now I think you are going to have a monumental task of getting back into it with teams like Toulon around.

Dodger
I think you may be correct in some of your observations. Toulouse will only be focused on T14 survival, second tier of Europe will be ignored.
However I wouldn't read too much into the Bordeaux Clermont result. Bordeaux have been playing amazing stuff, particularly at home, all last season and this. Clermont rested Chuly, Fofana (also slightly injured), Lopez, Parra and Rougerrie with an eye to giving the French squad players, and others, a rest with Europe and AI's on the horizon. I expect them to be better than last season.
The strength of the T14 is insane when compared with the Aviva and Pro 12. Teams like Oyanneux and Castres would comfortably be mid table in the other domestic leagues. haven't watched any English club rugby but sounds like Tigers are struggling, Leinster certainly are: Without the leradership of leo Cullen and BOD they are looking somewhat rudderless at the mo., although that may change. Glasgow Bath games look like being the pick of the group games.

Some good points Artful Dodger. However like Sensiball I wont read much into UBB smashing victory against Clermont (was a great advert for T14 with plenty of rythm and sometimes dodgy defences, reminiscent of some S15 games). When they are at home playing in front of near 30k people, UBB can play some great rugby and yet fall the week after in Brive or Grenoble. 2 seasons ago they won 40-0 against Toulon when they were fighting to stay up. Not enough players of pedigree (but a lot of underrated ones) to be able to compete week in / week out so wont do much at all in the challenge cup I suppose. Kudos to the coaching team for giving confindence to those players(rafa ibanez, etcheto and also steve worsley who did a great job as defense coach) and a couple of good finds every year (like that 21 yo Lonca who was playing in 4th division last year).anyway am disgressing now...