NH teams have less than zero chance of winning RWC2015

First topic message reminder :

According to The Telegraph

I mean, they don't say it directly, but they do say that NZ's chances in the RWC are 90%, Australia's 70%, South Africa's also 70% and Argentina's 40%. Given these events are mutually exclusive, the total probability of an SH win - if they are right - is 270%. Which, on the assumption that the IRB aren't going to treat it like an Under 7s tournament and give medals to everybody, suggests that the collective chances of the NH teams must be a whopping -170%. They might as well not turn up.

It's not the first article I've seen where the chances of different teams winning the RWC have totalled over 200%. Is this some elaborate journalists' joke, or have fatal flaws in English numeracy finally been exposed?

I reckon Ireland will give it 110% but I can't see our chances being any better than say... 95%. 95% not to win.

if wales dont get a win against the SH this series of AIs they are not going to get out of their group stage at RWC given that they play both England and Australia at Twickenham.

it really is that simple.

Yeah lads, this isn't about England v Wales.

I've already said that if Wales can manage the intensity and varied attack the managed for 3/4 of the 2nd SA test they will threaten any SH team.

Ireland must replicate the brilliance of their 1st half against NZ in Dublin to beat SA and a much improved Australia. 

England just need to be more astute and vigilant in defence than they were for 1&1/2 tests in NZ. And get the ball to our f***ing wingers more often! They will beat defenders.

Scotland desperately need a couple of wins. Argentina will be stern opposition first up. Much depends on Argentina's recovery from the recent RC. Tonga should be easy but Scotland managed to lose to them in Aberdeen not so long ago.

Overall I would that Wales look pretty strong but have injuries in the centre.

England's just need to ignore the injury problems and tear into teams. And keep doing it to create space for our wide men.

Ireland ditto with the injuries. More of the spirit they showed v NZ should see them take another SH scalp.

Scotland need two wins from their three games and one isn't likely to happen v NZ. The Argentina game is crucial. 

Good luck all. I can't watch this weekend's games unfortunately,  but I'll probably follow them on score update sites and follow the craic on here.

bedfordwelsh wrote:

HammerofThunor wrote:Yeah, it's 3-1 if you carefully select which games you go to (people always seem to do this in their favour ). Go back 4 years and it's 3-3 (2-2 in competitive games). Go back 2 years and it's 1-1. But go back 3 years and it's 2-1 (to Wales). Go back 3.3456 and it's 3-1. Go back 3.3468 and it's 3-2. Go back 5 years and it's 3-4 (to England). Who cares? It means bugger all. Results from last year are hardly relevant, the ones older than even less.

Hammer,

Does that mean Wales' 9 losses on the bounce to Australia don't matter phew thank god for that .  Seriously though you are right to a degree as players involved possibly 3/4/5 years back might not even be involved now.  I do however think it does come a pyshcological problem after a while like it has with Wales at the moent - it must play on your mind that you get so close to winning but then we lose in the final 5 minutes or so.

I'd be very very very surpised and dismayed if our players had any psychological block about beating Wales at all

For Wales vs Aus, it all depends on how both teams, one in their first match in ages and first after the regions saga was kind of resolved ish, and one with a new coach and a disruptive player base, gel together. I think Wales, with a lot of continuity, might have an edge there

For Eng vs NZ, we have to try and dictate the pace ourselves and be intense from the start. As soon as NZ get to dictate the pace, we will tire

I think all NH teams have to dictate the pace of the game and control the ball. I think S15 rugby is played at a higher intensity than anything up here so if we play at their pace we tend to lose.

GavinDragon, do you think the NH teams train aerobically for the pace of a fastgame?

I have read that the underfoot conditions doesn't allow for it, they had an interview with the Springboks last night and they were discussing the longer studs which is necessary in the NH which impacts mobility.

yes they do Bilt - comments coming out of the welsh camp this week suggest that (they have been trying to bridge a gap of 10 metres per minute in training - apparently on average they run 10 metres a minute more in international games compared to regional rugby) and if you look back to the RWC (with wales in particular) you couldn't say that they weren't fit...

difference is the SH players play at that pace week in week out so not only are they physically used to it they are also used to having the mental ability to make the right decisions when under that type of fatigue...

do conditions in northern hemisphere help? No of course not but if you watch the English premiership (especially games between the top 4-6sides) in September they are very fast paced and physical so they certainly do have the ability which is why I tip England to win the WC next year...

France are on a downward spiral akin to the English Football premiership - too many foreigners taking up places of French players limiting their player pool.

The pro12 in my opinion, other than games between the top teams (Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Glasgow) is dire even with the changes, it is slow, cumbersome and lacking in intensity, is that due to conditions? Maybe but it is also due to depth of player pool at each nation and a lack of funds to import sufficient quality, add the fact that you could pick a welsh exile international standard 15 means that you just do not have the depth to produce top top level quality...

Do the grounds become harder and faster in Summer?

they do yes on the whole, I think moving to a global rugby calendar (although a logistical nightmare) would benefit NH rugby and not just because of conditions but because competitions could be played en bloc meaning more less teams competing for fans (say Newport RFC and the Dragons who both play at the same time of year) etc

I doubt we will see a global season, it would be great though.

Imagine we have a block of four months for out and out test rugby between August and November

Biltong wrote:Do the grounds become harder and faster in Summer?

I think that depends on the British summer, yes normally, but we can get some very wet summers here, especially from the Midlands upwards which would encompass, 50% of England, 50% of Wales ( although not the main teams), 70% of Ireland and 100% of Scotland. Recent years have been better and the grounds playing well late into the year in the main.

The money has not been available until recently to improve the quality of the pitches, by December you are talking about playing in a quagmire and then they don't really recover until the end of the season. Teams like falcons have been laying synthetic pitches recently, that means there is no excuse for not playing quick rugby other than the cold, but they still have to play away which can mean having two alternate playing styles. Other teams are looking at the Twickenham model, having a low percentage of synthetic grass blades incorporated into the turf which seems to work very well.

The new generation of younger players coming through the academies are trending towards the leaner fitter aerobic sort rather than the big bruisers of old that used to prevail in sodden conditions. It is due to rain heavily tomorrow, so perhaps we need to resurrect a few.