Next season?

Looking ahead to next season these are m,y initial predictions for how the four Welsh regions might fare.

Cardiff Blues.......because of international callups they will be disrupted to quite some degree, added to the ageing squad it all points to a poor trophy cabinet = 5th place in the Magners, out at the group stage in the Heineken and also the group stage of the LV=.

Dragons........Poor additions thus far to the squad, don't fill me with enthusiasm for the season to come. They have finally seen the light regarding player improvement and MAY have got the right coach to take them further. The big danger though is the second season syndrome, Darren Edwards enthused a demoralised bunch of players after Turner, helped in part by playing other Welsh regions, can he continue that improvement throughout the whole season? = 4th in the Magners, 1/4 finals Amlin, semi finals LV=.

Ospreys.........Looking too much like a headless chicken for large parts of last season, the almost impossible task for the coaches this, will be to keep them where they are now. That wont be helped by World cup demands and the 6N's, the recent strength of the Ospreys has been the set piece but with two props, two hookers, two locks and two flankers away that will no longer be the case. The fact that they have recruited what looks to be second class recruits means that they will not be a force in any competition, and with the distinct possibility that Webb may be missing, Phillips gone and fotuali'i not arriving 'til after the WC then they may have to rely on an academy scrum half. = 6th Magners ,group stages of both the Heineken and LV=.

Scarlets..........to be applauded for their decision to go with youth, they remain a team of two parts, defence and attack. In the former they are woeful and in the latter unsurpassed, nigel Davies ahas a real job on his hands if he's to resolve this dilemma, and it all starts and ends with the forwards. If forwards dominate then they will also do well in defence but if they are being hammered up front they will drop off tackles as the game progresses, I should think every fan knows this, why dont the scarlets? They will lose several of their most influential players to the WC, players like Rees, Jones,Stoddart, Knoyle and North how they cope with that will be crucial, I think that they will. = 2nd Magners, 1/4's Heineken and semi's LV=.

Overall I do see a shift in the power base of Welsh rugby, but only through the world cup season.

Over the coming days I will detail my thoughts of all the regions, but I do think that the time is coming when the WRU will have to look again at the regional structure.

Not a bad summary, I think most will agree that there is reason to be more positive about the Dragons and Scarlets for next season as apposed to the Osprey's and Blues.

Think you might be a tad optimistic about the Scarlets' LV hopes. That is very much a developmental competition for us where we play most of our Llanelli RFC boys so can't see us making a semi-final in that. 1/4's in the Heineken would be an absolutely huge for us, if we achieved that I reckon I'd be pretty happy with our season.

I think 2nd in the Magners could be about right if we replicate our form of this season, but actually turn those very, very narrow losses of ours into wins. And with regards to our defence I am actually feeling slightly hopeful of that. We got a lot better in the 2nd half of the season, and after seeing Llanelli's defence against both Neath and Ponty it is clear we are getting good defensive systems in place in our feeder clubs, so fingers crossed that translates to the region itself.

I'm sorry, I can't see more that one Welsh side making the Magners playoffs.

I agree Scarlets will make it, and Blues and Os won't, but Dragons would be a major surprise.

Ospreylian - that would mean all four of the Welsh sides finishing above one of Munster, Leinster and Ulster in the Magners. I don't think that's likely, even before considering that the Scottish sides cannot be as bad as this year.

"Over the coming days I will detail my thoughts of all the regions, but I do think that the time is coming when the WRU will have to look again at the regional structure."

Hear, hear.

However, as to the rest, I know Leinster and Munster will have a drag on their season given the WC and 6N, but I still see both of them joining Ulster in the playoffs.

Gatlands response to his critics for having a lack of cutting edge will be to put more Dragons and Scarlets in his squad, rather than change his type of favoured scrum half, or more importantly the overly structured nature of his game plan.

Munster don't actually have that many international players anymore. We'll lose 1 front row (Varley), 3 locks (DOC, POC, MOD), 3 backrows (Leamy, Ryan, Wallace), 2 scrumhalves (Stringer, O'Leary) and maybe just ROG and Earls in the backline.

We could still have:

01 Marcus Horan
02 Mike Sherry
03 BJ Botha
04 Billy Holland
05 Ian Nagle
06 Tommy O'Donnell
07 Niall Ronan
08 James Coughlan
09 Conor Murray
10 Ian Keatley
11 Simon Zebo
12 Lifeimi Mafi
13 Danny Barnes
14 Doug Howlett
15 Felix Jones

Its really just second row that we suffer at. And I reckon that not all of them will be unavailable. We'll be grand.

And of course the best refs will also be...sorry, couldn't see it through

Won't have that big an effect though I expect to see older referees like Pearson, Berdos, Dickinson, Rolland, Walsh, Kaplan fading out slightly so the next bunch are ready for 2015 RWC.

Look at how White and Lewis have declined in last few seasons.

Ospreylian - well considered opening post.

It's a tad bleak for me though!

I think this World Cup year will test one thing in particular - squad depth.

And in fairness I feel the Ospreys and to a lesser extent the Blues are streets ahead of the other regions in this department.

We know full well that Leinster and Munster will be strong so I see ten taking the top 2 slots of the Magners.

I have a gut feeling that lots of Scarlet backs are going to get injured during the World Cup and wouldn't be surprised if the Dragons finish above them.

Heinekin wise - I can't see any of the regions mounting a serious campaign.

Loki wrote:

I have a gut feeling that lots of Scarlet backs are going to get injured during the World Cup and wouldn't be surprised if the Dragons finish above them.

Loki, that thought hadn't even crossed my mind yet.

Are you trying to make me ?

Tis a serious problem the Scarlets are going to face though. We struggled badly in the 6Nations this year and add in the WC...it's going to be tough for us to replicate a lot of last years form. I think blooding so many youngsters last season though will have us in a much stronger position then we were in this season though. I have faith in my team to get through it.

I would be very surprised if two Welsh sides made the place offs.I could see the Scarlets making it, but the Dragons haven't added many squad members so don't see it happening.

Rugbydreamer - I sincerely hope I'm wrong! It's just that Gatland has a habit of breaking our players, particularly the backs.

I can see why lots of people are very optimistic about the Dragon and Scarlets' chances next season and I hope they do well. However the strength of depth simply isn't there to continue the measurable improvement during a world cup year.

Thomond - completely agree there's very little chance of two Welsh regions making the playoffs.

In my opinion it's between the Ospreys and the Blues and who goes through will mainly depend on injuries.

Loki wrote:Rugbydreamer - I sincerely hope I'm wrong! It's just that Gatland has a habit of breaking our players, particularly the backs.

I can see why lots of people are very optimistic about the Dragon and Scarlets' chances next season and I hope they do well. However the strength of depth simply isn't there to continue the measurable improvement during a world cup year.

I agree with all of the above, no matter how much I hope my Scarlets are able to kick on and improve. Was just commenting on another thread about Scarlets signings about the lack of cover we've got in our backs, especially the back 3. We have almost no cover if we lose North, Stoddard and Lamont (which is looking likely). It's going to be a very tough start to the season for us!

Have faith. It will be fine. Fate will lend a hand. Opportunity will knock. Belieeeve!

Fear not Glas, I do have faith, and I do believe, doesn't mean I won't worry a heck of a lot along the way though!

Lyons off to France but will he really be missed?

Not a bleak outlook from my side of the fence, just trying to be realistic.

Cannot see why the Irish cousins are so certain that 2 welsh teams can't make the playoffs, until this seasons playoffs only the Ospreys have won the Magners three times since wales went regional. Now i see both the Dragons and Scarlets suffering less over the WC and after ( fatigue), but will be hit by smaller squads, Blues have an ageing squad and like Ospreys will be hard hit, that alongside the IO's ditching their "stars" tells me that they will be unable to mount a serious challenge.
My top four would be made up from:
Dragons
Scarlets
Ulster
Leinster

There is nothing written that suggests that 3 Irish teams will make the top four.

I think the Dragons and Scarlets will do well next year. The Dragons badly needed a clear out they have a huge squad and many of the players who have left wont be missed. They finally have a coach who seems to want to play good rugby.

The Scarlets may struggle without King to fire their backline, perhaps badly if Ben Morgan has second season syndrome, and takes his foot off the gas.

The Ospreys will probably be better, many of the disruptive elements amongst the squad have left / been ejected. Many of the egos have gone. If the team can find some kind of spirit then they will be all the better for it regardless of how many off form international players they lose.

Nothing will change at Cardiff, they will be poor.