Wales - Winning, worrying and wobblies

I posted the below on the Wales vs SA thread but I thouhgt I'd open it up for discussion to see if anyone else didnt really think beating SA was a defining moment for this welsh team....

"First post on the game since it was on so apologies if this has all been said before.

This game hasn't answered any questions for me, and I dont necessarily believe we've 'moved on' now. The last 10 minutes was a lesson in how not to win a game from Wales. Luckily, South Africa decided they didnt deserve to win more so than Wales were trying to lose. The key moments towards the end of the game again had welsh players making silly decisions, Roberts deciding to run into 3 bok defenders in his own 22 instead of putting the ball downfield, Baldwin picking and going completely on his own the long way round on the Bok tryline and getting turned over and then Scott Williams trying to keep that kick in for no reason at all an handing the boks a 5m scrum.

I have no doubt that Oz, New Zealand and usually South Africa would have won that game in the last 10 minutes. South Africa were poor today, put it down to missing first line players, fatigue and some dodgy refereeing, whatever, they just werent as good as they usually are. Their ball-playing skills were non-existant. I worry that the next time we play one of the top 3 we'll go back to being clsoe but no cigar until we can make better decisions whilst tired. I'm starting to really take Gatland/Hammetts comments of fitness issues between regional/test level very seriously now.

Other points
- Biggar was immense
- Hendricks should have never been yellow carded
- Warburton was the complete 7
- Liam Williams/Halfpenny both need to be in the back 3 for me
- A lot better variation with attacking play!!! This has been my biggest pluspoint of the AIs in all honesty, VARIATION!!!! We have the players who are able to play direct, around or over defenses but only recently have we started doing anything other than try to go through them."

Overall for the AIs, I'd give Wales a 7/10. The Australia game was there for the taking, a disjointed performance against Fiji (as always with our 'second team' fixture in the AIs) New Zealand was hailed as our best performance in context and we lost 5 tries to 1.

I dont know, maybe im too pessimistic, I just dont see this as a turning of any corners yet....

Everything about the scoreline, the timing  and the schedule suggests that physically there isnt much of a reason to believe Wales have moved on. But on the mental side of things it does matter, it is a win against a top SH side which hasnt happened for far too long.

You are not going to tell for sure until the next time you play NZ/ SA/Oz, but its a great deal better than losing another one.

Two things about the Welsh South Africa game that I observed.

Biggar was always the better 10 option and should have been given the time earlier. I think I've been saying so for a long time so no benefit of hindsight on that either  Has the attitude even more than the skills.  You have to want to keep getting up and keep charging - it's more a spirit than anything else.  He has it, Priestland doesn't.

Warburton is essential!  Perhaps too essential as without him on that day, that was probably another loss, in my humble opinion.  He had that big of a game.  It will be interesting to see him operate now with teams fresher and hungrier in the desire to push him the hell out of where he skillfully managed to get himself into all through the game

Comfort wrote:

I have no doubt that Oz, New Zealand and usually South Africa would have won that game in the last 10 minutes. South Africa were poor today, put it down to missing first line players, fatigue and some dodgy refereeing, whatever, they just werent as good as they usually are. Their ball-playing skills were non-existant. I worry that the next time we play one of the top 3 we'll go back to being clsoe but no cigar until we can make better decisions whilst tired. I'm starting to really take Gatland/Hammetts comments of fitness issues between regional/test level very seriously now.

You'll find out on 14 March.

I dont know, maybe im too pessimistic, I just dont see this as a turning of any corners yet


You might not see it as turning corners. But the way Gatland was talking the other day was the Wales (IF) they get the bounce of the ball, could go o9n and win the Rugby World Cup.

Do you think that Gatland is being delusanal. Or is he being honest on Wales chances?

I think the manner of victory suggests it was a good win but not a great one. 1 win in itself cannot win the world cup but it can get a monkey off your back and it did.

No more will Wales wonder if they can get over the line, that should relax a lot of the players more and mean in the next forthcoming matches their actual chances are greater than had they say lost by a last minute breakaway try.

Was it a depleted and tired bok team. Yes... but that shouldn't and isn't an excuse. They all know the length of the season, they all know they have to put in effort for the whole race, not slow down come the end... if you can't get yourself up for a match in front of 80,000 you're either in the wrong sport or should retire.. and SA have enough players in all departments to cater for injuries. Its a fact of life for all teams... teams have travelled to SA depleted and lost, NZ in 2011 for instance.

Nevertheless I do feel that as good as this Welsh team is and they could get to the final easy.... they could just as much get knocked out in the pool stages too and with England away and with AUS a bit of a bogey side I think its probably odds on that they will.

Gatland has some balls I'll give him that. I wouldn't be so keen to say judge me on the world cup given its a real uphill battle ahead... rather than the 3 6N titles, 2 GS and 1 lions tour he has won.

Gatland is being honest in knowing that it can sometimes come down to the bounce of a ball.

Look at how many bounces France had before they crawled to the final last time (all out of Cat's lives and needing to actually play some rugby by then)

Look how Wales surprised people before.

The money will still be on a SH win with perhaps England as lone NHer, based partially on the fact that they are a good side and a lot on the home advantage that goodness might benefit from.  But there are a handful of teams with the talent and coaching knowhow to take advantage of bounced balls if they get the benefit of a few.

SecretFly wrote:Gatland is being honest in knowing that it can sometimes come down to the bounce of a ball.

Look at how many bounces France had before they crawled to the final last time (all out of Cat's lives and needing to actually play some rugby by then)

Look how Wales surprised people before.

The money will still be on a SH win with perhaps England as lone NHer, based partially on the fact that they are a good side and a lot on the home advantage that goodness might benefit from.  But there are a handful of teams with the talent and coaching knowhow to take advantage of bounced balls if they get the benefit of a few.

The problem is that even whilst teams 2-6 are very close... there are only 3 semi-final places for them and out of England, Australia and Wales... one of them will go home pre KO.

You could easily see Wales lose by 1 point to both ENG and AUS and yet if you judge Gatland on the world cup he would have been an utter failure. The margins are so close these days.

Yes, but as coach, Gatland isn't thinking about losing by 1 point to both England and Australia.  Some might suggest it's more probable than Wales winning both those games by 1 point - but as coach he has to think and plan for such an outcome (winning rather than losing) - and who is to truly say it can't happen? Wales have done the unexpected before.

Yes, he's willing to talk Big (it's his personality and he IS a Kiwi so self confidence is never lacking) but when you break it down, all he's doing is being blunt in the way he says things, as other more mannerly coaches think the very same thing.  'If we get a few bounces, we could win this thing.'

SecretFly wrote:Two things about the Welsh South Africa game that I observed.

Biggar was always the better 10 option and should have been given the time earlier. I think I've been saying so for a long time so no benefit of hindsight on that either  Has the attitude even more than the skills.  You have to want to keep getting up and keep charging - it's more a spirit than anything else.  He has it, Priestland doesn't.

Warburton is essential!  Perhaps too essential as without him on that day, that was probably another loss, in my humble opinion.  He had that big of a game.  It will be interesting to see him operate now with teams fresher and hungrier in the desire to push him the hell out of where he skillfully managed to get himself into all through the game

I thought our back-row played pretty well, maybe as well as they did during their early outings in 2011. So for that reason, your stone age tactics driven back row can watch out. It'll be 2011/12 all over again .

majesticimperialman wrote:I dont know, maybe im too pessimistic, I just dont see this as a turning of any corners yet


You might not see it as turning corners. But the way Gatland was talking the other day was the Wales (IF) they get the bounce of the ball, could go o9n and win the Rugby World Cup.

Do you think that Gatland is being delusanal. Or is he being honest on Wales chances?

He didn't say that madge and he said a lot more than the bounce of the ball, try reading the bloody article for god's sake. Nothing wrong with him showing faith in the team he's coaching either.

The Saint wrote:
I thought our back-row played pretty well, maybe as well as they did during their early outings in 2011. So for that reason, your stone age tactics driven back row can watch out. It'll be 2011/12 all over again .  

Those tactics are in the bin now, Saint 2014 is so last year right now. 2015 is the new Black. Schmidt is working on his collection as we speak.

SecretFly wrote:

The Saint wrote:
I thought our back-row played pretty well, maybe as well as they did during their early outings in 2011. So for that reason, your stone age tactics driven back row can watch out. It'll be 2011/12 all over again .  

Those tactics are in the bin now, Saint   2014 is so last year right now.  2015 is the new Black.  Schmidt is working on his collection as we speak.

I was thinking about the Kidney era with that comment tbh. Still funny though.

Wruburton was immense during this AI's. Fair play to him. Good to beat SA at last but v Fiji, NZ and SA it was the same power backrow and centres Gatlandball gameplan. A plan that smarter coaches can counter...

All NH rugby though now seems to have at one level or another the belief that we'll beat the bejaysus out of you until you can't take it no more. We'll attack that way, we'll defend that way. You won't get a second to breathe ..or to stay on your feet.

It can be effective at times but it sure do ask a lot of players in the physicality stakes. Impacting is the new evasion.

People talk about yet more rule changes to free things up, yet again. But I think 'Why?' Why resist where rugby seems to want to go. Just forget about the tryline and make the winners the last player standing.
Now THAT's a Gyme!

Look I said on the thread I felt it was a hollow victory and I am sure that when they analyse the game the players will take a lot of lessons on how not to win a game

Can we win the WC? I agree with FA we could get to the final - on the other hand we could easily lose to Aus, England and conceivably Fiji

I think the players should be pleased with the result, but not the performance. AWJ's comments after the game:

"We finished on a positive but we can't let it paper over or let us forget the errors we need to work on."

"There's pats on the back behind closed doors, but we know there's a lot to work on."

edit:

fa0019 wrote:Nevertheless I do feel that as good as this Welsh team is and they could get to the final easy.... they could just as much get knocked out in the pool stages too and with England away and with AUS a bit of a bogey side I think its probably odds on that they will.

I agree with this as well, although I'd have it maybe at evens

I have said on other posts that the win was all that mattered and I didn't give a flying **** how it came about.

Was it a good game no

Was it a good performance no

But if we had been involved in a brilliant game of rugby scoring some brilliant tries but still lost then what would that have achieved.

We simply had to win this game and the fact that we done it with all bar 2 of the original XV starters is a very good plus point given the way we fell off the pace against the ABs

On the match thread, I tipped us to win this game last week primarily because of the players missing for SA and I'm normally an optimist, after the game many were saying what a poor game it was and just wait until they (SA) get their first team out and we will get stuffed again, so decided to do a bit of delving, 11 of the SA starting team started and BEAT the All blacks in the RC, with the starting half backs in that game on the bench last weekend and vice versa for the replacements, the only 2 real losses were Jannie du Plessis and Habana being replaced, so this was NOT a weak SA, we were also losing 3 players from our normal established team from this years AI series of matches, with Hibbard, James and North missing, I know a number on here wanted Williams and Jenkins playing, yet Gatland would have had those 3 if they were available.
IMO this was a good win against a pretty good SA, not their strongest, neither was it ours.

wayne I knew that myself, with most of that Bok team having played throughout the RC. Also do you notice how NZ and especially Aus who play more games than SA never moan about being tired, etc? I also said how we played better against SA in the summer (2nd test) though, both teams were a bit stronger then.

The most important thing was it was a win. I think it was a win at all costs game in tactics and mentality for the players.

We have heard and seen the squad say matches were must win games and we have seen them fall short 27 times.

Saturday was a great day psychologically for this squad.

The Saint wrote:wayne I knew that myself, with most of that Bok team having played throughout the RC. Also do you notice how NZ and especially Aus who play more games than SA never moan about being tired, etc? I also said how we played better against SA in the summer (2nd test) though, both teams were a bit stronger then.

Saint

Just a question... when did AUS play more games then SA? You mean the BC cup one off match?

The NZ and SA SR leagues are far tougher than the AUS leagues. Its far less physical. Given teams play more domestic games than they do foreign teams it gives a physical advantage to AUS sides, hence their dramatic improvement since the format change whilst their test side have continued to be the worst of the 3 with far less domestic depth.

Additionally, SA and NZ have domestic cup competitions. AUS does not.

Then bring into the equation the travel during the domestic season. SA players travel far more miles in a domestic and international season due to their locality and their opposition.

Yet  I haven't read the boks saying, oh we only lost because we were tired etc. Its the last game of a long season and like NZ in 2012 you have to keep on the ball at all times. Was it a factor... its always a factor when seasons are not aligned and one team is winding down when the other is gearing up. It happens both ways but don't try and smear the boks by saying, oh excuses excuses. It simply wasn't suggested. They had injuries, all teams have injuries... and injuries are these days as much to do with player management as they are to freak accidents.

The Saint wrote:wayne I knew that myself, with most of that Bok team having played throughout the RC. Also do you notice how NZ and especially Aus who play more games than SA never moan about being tired, etc? I also said how we played better against SA in the summer (2nd test) though, both teams were a bit stronger then.

The only team that plays better is the one that scores the most points . End of discussion . Wales scored 2 more penalties than the Boks last saturday , they played better simple. The Boks did not moan about being tired either

...but they were We'll say it for them.

fa0019 wrote:

The Saint wrote:wayne I knew that myself, with most of that Bok team having played throughout the RC. Also do you notice how NZ and especially Aus who play more games than SA never moan about being tired, etc? I also said how we played better against SA in the summer (2nd test) though, both teams were a bit stronger then.

Saint

Just a question... when did AUS play more games then SA? You mean the BC cup one off match?

The NZ and SA SR leagues are far tougher than the AUS leagues. Its far less physical. Given teams play more domestic games than they do foreign teams it gives a physical advantage to AUS sides, hence their dramatic improvement since the format change whilst their test side have continued to be the worst of the 3 with far less domestic depth.

Additionally, SA and NZ have domestic cup competitions. AUS does not.

Then bring into the equation the travel during the domestic season. SA players travel far more miles in a domestic and international season due to their locality and their opposition.

Yet  I haven't read the boks saying, oh we only lost because we were tired etc. Its the last game of a long season and like NZ in 2012 you have to keep on the ball at all times. Was it a factor... its always a factor when seasons are not aligned and one team is winding down when the other is gearing up. It happens both ways but don't try and smear the boks by saying, oh excuses excuses. It simply wasn't suggested. They had injuries, all teams have injuries... and injuries are these days as much to do with player management as they are to freak accidents.

They do most years when they play the extra bledisloe, but if you remember when McKenzie took over they had 5 matches on their NH tour, more than any other travelling nation. The same this year as well.

I'm not saying a lot of fans are complaining about fatigue, but it does get banded around a lot when we're talking about SA.

Bullsbok wrote:

The Saint wrote:wayne I knew that myself, with most of that Bok team having played throughout the RC. Also do you notice how NZ and especially Aus who play more games than SA never moan about being tired, etc? I also said how we played better against SA in the summer (2nd test) though, both teams were a bit stronger then.

The only team that plays better is the one that scores the most points . End of discussion . Wales scored 2 more penalties than the Boks last saturday , they played better  simple.  The Boks did not moan about being tired either

Wales' performance in that 2nd summer test was better than it was on Saturday. You can't seriously think a mistake-ridden game was better. Bok fans were very gracious in defeat I thought, considering they could have had a few things to complain about.