Who will be the 16 1/4 Finalists?

Champions Cup

Toulon 100%
Guaranteed to finish top of their pool. Need to win in Llanelli though to claim a home 1/4 final.


Northampton 95%
Probably have enough points as it is. A win will guarantee a home 1/4 final, any match points secured guarantee a best runner up spot.


Racing Metro 90%
Probably have enough points as it is. A win will guarantee a home 1/4 final, any match points secured guarantee a best runner up spot. Away from home against Saints however so less favoured.


Clermont Auvergne 90%
May well already have enough points to get at least a best runner up spot. Victory at home to Saracens gives them a home 1/4 final. Any match points should secure a spot in the knock out rounds.


Leinster 75%
May well already have enough points to get at least a best runner up spot. Victory in Coventry gives them a home 1/4 final. Any match points should secure a spot in the knock out rounds.


Wasps 70%
Probably need to beat Leinster to secure a 1/4 final spot - though a draw with a TBP should also do. Have been playing well, but they have mixed some dire performances into the mix at times.


Toulouse 80%
Need to win away to Montpelier to secure knockout spot. Montpelier not won a game yet, and may pick a weakened team. Whoever they pick will not wish to lose to another French team, at home, and will be playing for a first team shirt for when T14 restarts.


Bath 70%
Win at home to Glasgow, who humbled them in round 1, will guarantee a best runner up spot. Need help from Montpelier if to secure top spot.


Glasgow 50%
Beat Bath with a TBP and they will be in the 1/4 finals - could even sneak top spot should Toulouse lose again. win without and they rely on other results.


Saracens 50%
Need at least one match point, maybe two at CA. could produce a massive performance and get the win that would quite possibly give a home 1/4 final. But their form has not been all that good.


Quins 20%
Victory for Leinster at Wasps, plus 5pts of their own against a misfiring Castres team could still see them sneak a best runner up spot. unlikely.


Leicester 10%
The hardest group to get out of, the only one where all teams have recorded a victory. TBPs have been hard to get and an away trip to Belfast is unlikely to give Leicester the 5pts they need to keep the dream alive.





Challenge Cup

Gloucester 100%
Already guaranteed a home 1/4 final

Exeter 100%
Guaranteed qualifier, need to beat Bayonne at home to stay at home.

Dragons 100%
Guaranteed qualifier, need to beat Stade at home to stay at home.

London Irish 95%
TBP win at rovigo guarantees a home 1/4 final. any win guarantees at worst a best runner up spot. Even defeat may not matter as 19 points may be hard to beat.

Cardiff 80%
A win at Grenoble will guarantee 1/4 final action. May get top spot, but must get more points than LI manage in Italy. 19 points probably enough to secure best runner up spot.

Newcastle Falcons 90%
A win in Romania will extend their stay in this competition.

Edinburgh 65%
Winner takes all match with Bordeaux-Begles

Connacht 35%
Need a TBP win at La Rochelle. Even then may not be enough.


Bordeaux Begles 35%
See above

From what people have said the point difference dosnt matter anymore. It goes off of head to head. So with London Irish the Blues will not finish top if we finish on the same points as we beat them by 10 points at home but they beat us by 11 in Reading. Feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up ranked 6th, 7th and 8th by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two or more clubs in the same pool are equal on match points, their ranking will be determined by the matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.

(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended for incidents in the pool stage; or
(iv) if equal, by drawing lots.

Spot on Coleman

Coleman wrote:From what people have said the point difference dosnt matter anymore. It goes off of head to head. So with London Irish the Blues will not finish top if we finish on the same points as we beat them by 10 points at home but they beat us by 11 in Reading. Feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

I meant more match points. Unlikely as LI will surely get all 5 against Rovigo?

The old tournaments used the head to head rule too I thought.

They did.

Coleman wrote:From what people have said the point difference dosnt matter anymore. It goes off of head to head. So with London Irish the Blues will not finish top if we finish on the same points as we beat them by 10 points at home but they beat us by 11 in Reading. Feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

It's possible/probable that we could finish on the same total as Lyon then points difference will matter.....

"(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended for incidents in the pool stage; or
(iv) if equal, by drawing lots."

So "WAKE UP!" London Welsh and try not to get too smashed.

I know it has to rank teams but how can connacht and beagles only have a 35% chance if one has to go through

but good breakdown of what needs to happen

Beagles and Edinburgh. 65 and 35%

Brendan wrote:I know it has to rank teams but how can connacht and beagles only have a 35% chance if one has to go through

If i'm reading the tables right, both may not make the knockout stages.

I think i may have missed someone from the challenge cup. Percentages should have added up to 800%