Can Berdych finally capitalise ? (Ans: Clearly not)

Obviously I am annoyed that Nadal lost, but happy with his tournament on the whole. Reaching the QF was decent in the circumstances (in terms of his match fitness, of course I recognise his draw upto the QF was quite favourable).

However if I could choose for Nadal to lose to anyone, it would be my second favourite player. As I said on the match thread, it's very rare for me that my second favourite player beats Nadal; so this is a first.
And talking of Berdych, can he now finally capitalise ? He's played so well this tournament, he was clinical in taking advantage of Rafa in the QF, and has not yet dropped a set. This is genuinely the best I've seen him play since Wimbledon 2010.
However on the other hand he does have the habit of reaching the latter stages of tournaments and mucking up. He's 2 matches away now, but if past history for Berdych is taken into account... that is a long way to go.

I think Berdych has the ability, I could see him beating Murray as I think that is a good match for him. But I can't see him getting past Djokovic in a final if Novak is there. I think the real killer draw for him of the players that are left is Djokovic. Right now we can't sleep on Stan either. Stan's big swings and heavy shots play very well on this surface. He is an arrogant and prickly sort of fellow but I wouldn't mind if he wins because he has been close so many times before and it would be nice if he got his due.

It Must Be Love - agreed! Never fun when "you're man" loses but as you stated, it's a positive result to get to 1/4's - I think a lot of recreational players and viewing fans, don't appreciate the very fine margins at the very Top of the game.

Nadal's usually solid on break points, but was 0 for 4, can't happen against Berdych...gotta convert them. Wasn't able to watch the match here in Thailand but will watch it when possible. Glad for Berdych as, like you, I am a fan indeed. He's long had the talent but I think in a rather one dimensional way. Not sure he has much other than Plan A - so if his opponent can execute, not sure there is Plan B or C - as there are, with the truly greats of the game.

So best of luck to Berdych - hope the winner of his semi goes all the way!

socal1976 wrote:I think Berdych has the ability, I could see him beating Murray as I think that is a good match for him. But I can't see him getting past Djokovic in a final if Novak is there. I think the real killer draw for him of the players that are left is Djokovic. Right now we can't sleep on Stan either. Stan's big swings and heavy shots play very well on this surface. He is an arrogant and prickly sort of fellow but I wouldn't mind if he wins because he has been close so many times before and it would be nice if he got his due.

I'd love a Nishi vs Berdych final

yloponom68 wrote:It Must Be Love - agreed! Never fun when "you're man" loses but as you stated, it's a positive result to get to 1/4's - I think a lot of recreational players and viewing fans, don't appreciate the very fine margins at the very Top of the game.

Nadal's usually solid on break points, but was 0 for 4, can't happen against Berdych...gotta convert them. Wasn't able to watch the match here in Thailand but will watch it when possible. Glad for Berdych as, like you, I am a fan indeed. He's long had the talent but I think in a rather one dimensional way. Not sure he has much other than Plan A - so if his opponent can execute, not sure there is Plan B or C - as there are, with the truly greats of the game.

So best of luck to Berdych - hope the winner of his semi goes all the way!

Agree y68

It Must Be Love wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I think Berdych has the ability, I could see him beating Murray as I think that is a good match for him. But I can't see him getting past Djokovic in a final if Novak is there. I think the real killer draw for him of the players that are left is Djokovic. Right now we can't sleep on Stan either. Stan's big swings and heavy shots play very well on this surface. He is an arrogant and prickly sort of fellow but I wouldn't mind if he wins because he has been close so many times before and it would be nice if he got his due.

I'd love a Nishi vs Berdych final

Yeah, that would be a good final. Nishikori is a player I really like he brings a lot of flair and attacking power to his game.

I punted in a big tourny for Berdych and im sticking. Hell be the favourite against Murray with a performance like he had against Nadal, but Djokovic is the problem. Stan or Nish, or indeed Raonic, HAS to take mr incredible out

Nope. One swallow doesn't make a summer.

temporary21 wrote:I punted in a big tourny for Berdych and im sticking. Hell be the favourite against Murray with a performance like he had against Nadal, but Djokovic is the problem. Stan or Nish, or indeed Raonic, HAS to take mr incredible out

Spot on.

Berdych at his best is better than everyone else in the draw. Probably even Djokovic but if he drops a fraction the likes of Murray, Novak and Stan will be fav.

Thats actually pretty funny.

With the newer players starting to get established, I think this is Aus Open is one of Berdych's last chances to win a slam. He's not my favourite player but I'd definitely say he's the best player currently playing who's not yet won a slam. Like others have said, he has no chance against Djokovic - needs someone else to take him out.

He doesn't need no one to take anybody out for him. He can do it on his own at this point

Ive always been the first to say that Berdych hadn't got a slam in him.
In the mental department he has always fallen short imo. Choking at crucial points in the match has, in the past, messed up any chance he had to win the big silverware.. But I was most impressed with his performance in all departments last night.. even given that Rafa never played his best, I still think he could have edged it.  His concentration and focus was awesome.. never have I seen him look more determined. His serve, which has always been impressive was faultless and never waned the entire match. From Rafa's point of view I was hoping Berdych's serve would break down .. but no.

As I say he wasn't playing 100% Rafa but even so I would give him a good chance against Murray if he approaches the match the same way again and I believe Andy is playing some pretty good stuff.. so do I reckon Berdy for his first slam??? he is up there imo

It's all fine and dandy destroying a multi slam winner when their not at their best (not taking anything away from the result or performance of Berdych) but the prospect of having to beat 3 of them on the bounce in a Slam? It's utter reliance that the other 2 (should the draw go right to form) don't show up.

I just don't see it.

It is certainly conceivable that Berdych could beat Murray but I just don't see him being able to beat Novak. Berdych would need someone to beat Novak in the other half.

It was not all about Berdy beating Rafa in the tennis department. His mental game has improved almost without recognition. This was not the Berdy we or Rafa had become accustomed to

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Berdych at his best is better than everyone else in the draw. Probably even Djokovic but if he drops a fraction the likes of Murray, Novak and Stan will be fav.

Huh? Berdych best is better than Djoko?!!

In any case, Andy's my favourite so I'm rotting for him in the semis, should Berdy take him out (I expect this might be an epic), then Im all in the Berds nest for the final.

Yes, he can redline it better than most people, but tennis is about managing your level and making the smart choices. I dont fancy Berdych to be able to do that enough against Novak, not even close.

Obviously I am fully behind Berdych for the rest of the tournament; but I think Murray is 60:40 favourite against him; and Djokovic is 90:10 favourite.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Ive always been the first to say that Berdych hadn't got a slam in him.
In the mental department he has always fallen short imo. Choking at crucial points in the match has, in the past, messed up any chance he had to win the big silverware.. But I was most impressed with his performance in all departments last night.. even given that Rafa never played his best, I still think he could have edged it.  His concentration and focus was awesome.. never have I seen him look more determined. His serve, which has always been impressive was faultless and never waned the entire match. From Rafa's point of view I was hoping Berdych's serve would break down .. but no.

As I say he wasn't playing 100% Rafa but even so I would give him a good chance against Murray if he approaches the match the same way again and I believe Andy is playing some pretty good stuff.. so do I reckon Berdy for his first slam??? he is up there imo

I agree with everything you are saying. I think Rafa at his best would have been given all he could handle and probably been edged out by the Berdych we saw.

However, I think that mental strength we saw, the concentration and focus, was highly aided by the fact that Berdych knew he wasn't facing 100% Nadal. We know the margins at the top are so thin- perhaps just the little extra confidence that gave him was enough to create that focus. Was that the real new Berdych, or a one off Berdych who will revert back to his past mental failings.

TRuffin wrote:

I agree with everything you are saying.  I think Rafa at his best would have been given all he could handle and probably been edged out by the Berdych we saw.  

However, I think that mental strength we saw, the concentration and focus, was highly aided by the fact that Berdych knew he wasn't facing 100% Nadal.  We know the margins at the top are so thin- perhaps just the little extra confidence that gave him was enough to create that focus.   Was that the real new Berdych, or a one off Berdych who will revert back to his past mental failings.

I like Berdych a lot, but I feel if Rafa (or any other top star) play their best, they would edge Berdych out.
Not because Berdych's game has weaknesses, he has the complete game and can hit the ball with more pace than most, but in the tight moments in close matches (i.e. not when he's winning bagels in sets), he tends to blink while the likes of Nadal/Djoko/Fed can usually raise their game to an extra gear he doesn't have.

For all the praise Berdych is getting for his victory over Nadal, he was playing with very little pressure. It's easier to maintain a high standard when your opponent is making it relatively easy. He'll not have things all his own way against Murray, although I think it is a 50/50 match - both look in good form, and while Andy has more big match GS experience, Berdy does have a game that matches up well.

Getting past Djoko in the final though? Very unlikely.

TRuffin wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Berdych at his best is better than everyone else in the draw. Probably even Djokovic but if he drops a fraction the likes of Murray, Novak and Stan will be fav.

Huh? Berdych best is better than Djoko?!!

Djokovic has had an easy enough draw. He lost to Nishikori and Stan in slams last year, Berdych has the confidence now that he's seen Marin do it also

Well for those of you who saw the match yet disagree with me then ok..

For those of you who didn't then

Worth noting that Berdych has a positive H2H over Murray (6-4), including the last two matches - they were back in 2013. He has every chance.

Those were also three set matches, he lost the 5 setter they played in 2012. Its a very tough one to call

There does seem to be a new approach, a bit more arrogance with Berdych - which if so bodes well for him

I would have taken Nadal any day in his current state over a player that Andy often seems to let get under his skin

I think Andy at his best, beats him but a worrying tie for him!!

It was 4 sets in 2012 and Murray, after a tight first set, was all over Berdych and then let it slip so it nearly went to a 5th

I'm pretty certain that Murray's back was becoming more of a problem when they last played, i.e. he only played in the US Open for the rest of 2013 and whilst no excuse, must have been a factor

For me, it's down to Andy on this surface, particularly if it's hot

TRuffin wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:Ive always been the first to say that Berdych hadn't got a slam in him.
In the mental department he has always fallen short imo. Choking at crucial points in the match has, in the past, messed up any chance he had to win the big silverware.. But I was most impressed with his performance in all departments last night.. even given that Rafa never played his best, I still think he could have edged it.  His concentration and focus was awesome.. never have I seen him look more determined. His serve, which has always been impressive was faultless and never waned the entire match. From Rafa's point of view I was hoping Berdych's serve would break down .. but no.

As I say he wasn't playing 100% Rafa but even so I would give him a good chance against Murray if he approaches the match the same way again and I believe Andy is playing some pretty good stuff.. so do I reckon Berdy for his first slam??? he is up there imo

I agree with everything you are saying.  I think Rafa at his best would have been given all he could handle and probably been edged out by the Berdych we saw.  

However, I think that mental strength we saw, the concentration and focus, was highly aided by the fact that Berdych knew he wasn't facing 100% Nadal.  We know the margins at the top are so thin- perhaps just the little extra confidence that gave him was enough to create that focus.   Was that the real new Berdych, or a one off Berdych who will revert back to his past mental failings.

Totally agree TRuffin. I think the cracks would have begun to show in Berdy had Rafa won a set most definitely. Berdych won handsomely but from what I saw Rafa was someway off the pace and by his own admission he was unable to raise his game. My take is this was Berdych at his normal level which was too good for Rafa at his current level. Murray at his best V Berdy at his best and I'd take Murray to win. Anything passive/indecisive to any great degree from Murray and Berdych will win.

I think you are missing my fundamental point here. I have watched, as we all have, Berdych play Rafa many times. I have watched Berdych play other top players many times. Even when those players have not played particularly well, Berdych, when ahead in the match, and nearing the end of a match cannot close it out.  But yesterday, in the fifth Rafa had his chances to break.. but still Berdych stayed focussed and determined. Yes you might argue that there was an element of "Im not going to let this son of a bitch beat me again" and yes Rafa was not playing anywhere near his best for the first two sets. But I believe, and this as you know is coming from one of Rafa's ardent fans, that he surprised Rafa as he did me. Now Im not particularly a Berdy fan, Ive always been a bit ambivalent, but I was impressed with his game, but more particularly the change in him mentally.

This is a really tough match to predict. Murray has looked absolutely superb these 2 weeks, as good as he has in 18 months. However, even at the best of times, he has struggled against Berdych. And that was Berdych 1.0, not this new version we've seen this week.

I don't think Berdych could beat Novak, and therefore I don't think he will win the title (unless Stan or Nish take Novak out for him) but Berdych could for sure beat Andy.

Really have no idea where it will go. It's a 50-50 match for me.

I also have to add of course, this is not my verdict on the outcome of the  match between Andy and Berdych. In fairness to Andy. because of the time difference Ive only been able to watch one of his matches. But I was able to see that Andy too has made some changes in the mental department. It was always my belief that when Andy was able to sort this aspect of his game.. the rest would follow. From the analysis I have read re Andy he seems to have made the adjustments he needed, in particular, his serve.. in truth it should be a good match and one I would love to see. He who cracks first me thinks.. so Andy
time to step  it up.. should be a good one

Haddie-nuff wrote:I think you are missing my fundamental point here. I have watched, as we all have, Berdych play Rafa many times. I have watched Berdych play other top players many times. Even when those players have not played particularly well, Berdych, when ahead in the match, and nearing the end of a match cannot close it out.  But yesterday, in the fifth Rafa had his chances to break.. but still Berdych stayed focussed and determined. Yes you might argue that there was an element of "Im not going to let this son of a bitch beat me again" and yes Rafa was not playing anywhere near his best for the first two sets. But I believe, and this as you know is coming from one of Rafa's ardent fans, that he surprised Rafa as he did me. Now Im not particularly a Berdy fan, Ive always been a bit ambivalent, but I was impressed with his game, but more particularly the change in him mentally.

Berdych got off to a flyer but was he playing lights out tennis or Rafa playing sub-par (by his ultra-high standards) tennis? I'd say more the latter and that continued and Rafa wasn't in the form to turn it around or even apply pressure to pressurise Berdych. If he had I think cracks would have shown in Berdych. Of course that is supposition based on the history of Berdych but until we see him pressurised in this tournament and he holds firm then we won't know if this really is a new Berdych.

It takes quite the effort to beat a fit Nadal. Only a couple can really boast more than a handful of victories over him. That speaks volumes of the magnitude of the performance required to beat him.

Forgive me that I won't jizz myself over a rusty Nadal losing.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Murray at his best V Berdy at his best and I'd take Murray to win.

Now that is a tough one to call. I think I'd lean the other way, though.

legendkillarV2 wrote:
jizz myself over a rusty Nadal losing.

Of course, why let it rust by not jizzing, working things don't rust

legendkillarV2 wrote:It takes quite the effort to beat a fit Nadal. Only a couple can really boast more than a handful of victories over him. That speaks volumes of the magnitude of the performance required to beat him.

Forgive me that I won't jizz myself over a rusty Nadal losing.

Hehe, this comment made me laugh

Berdych was very clinical against Nadal though, irrelevant of how Nadal was playing, Berdych's game seemed to be in really great shape.
The semi is close to call, you'd think Murray should be favourite given his experience in big stages... but Berdych has the H2H in his favour.

Should be a cracking match; good discussion too guys

Silver wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Murray at his best V Berdy at his best and I'd take Murray to win.

Now that is a tough one to call. I think I'd lean the other way, though.

In that case than, its all about serve, and Berdy edges the serve and with Fiance quality too

CC I wish Andy the best in this match.. whatever it should be a real test for both of them

Berdych was Murray and Stan vs Kei are cracker in cards, fortunately for Djoko he only have to face Raonic in Quarters and a burn out of Samurai vs Stan.

Murray is a better player than Berdych, as both their trophy cabinets show. If you asked Novak who he'd rather face in the final he'd choose Berdych for sure. BUT Berdych's game does match up very well to Murray's, as the h2h shows.

It Must Be Love wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:It takes quite the effort to beat a fit Nadal. Only a couple can really boast more than a handful of victories over him. That speaks volumes of the magnitude of the performance required to beat him.

Forgive me that I won't jizz myself over a rusty Nadal losing.

Hehe, this comment made me laugh

Berdych was very clinical against Nadal though, irrelevant of how Nadal was playing, Berdych's game seemed to be in really great shape.
The semi is close to call, you'd think Murray should be favourite given his experience in big stages... but Berdych has the H2H in his favour.

Should be a cracking match; good discussion too guys  

I don't see the Nadal result as a massive marker. I just don't. Irrelevant of H2H as well.

Look at the virgin Slam winners in 2014. Wawrinka beat the best player in the tournament and draw at the time in Djokovic. Cillic did the same at the US Open. Beat the best player left in the draw.

The best player is still left in the draw. It's only going to get tougher for Berdych and I don't think he has the stones for it.

As we all know here sometimes who is the better player can be irrelevant. Sometimes players don't match up well against certain players. Berdych has the edge over Murray ever so slightly but they are level in slams (1-1), Rafa dominates Federer, Murray fairs well against Tsonga whilst other top players have toiled against him. Really it is a mish-mash. Berdych may pull through in the semi because his game style is troublesome to Murray - we shall see. However, until Berdych has his hands on a slam title we cannot say he has shaken off his old mental problems. The semi can go either way I think and will be surprised if anyone wins it in straight sets.

It is fair to say though that Berdych is probably the most consistent and best players not to have won a slam around at the moment along with David Ferrer.

My guess would be that no, Berdych will not capitalize.

He played well yesterday but at the end of the day I still think that if Rafa had played close to his usual level, Berdych would have lost 18th straight.  Rafa was very poor in the first two sets and Berdych benefitted immensely from that.

I do admit that Berdych did show more composure in the third set than I would have expected.  By then Rafa was playing better and Berdych could have easily folded.  I expected to see him throw a couple of bad DFs or something of the sort.  While he did start looking a little tighter, he never collapsed.

Still, on balance I expect he will lose either in the SF or in the final.

MrInvisible wrote:With the newer players starting to get established, I think this is Aus Open is one of Berdych's last chances to win a slam.  He's not my favourite player but I'd definitely say he's the best player currently playing who's not yet won a slam.  Like others have said, he has no chance against Djokovic - needs someone else to take him out.

Very good post I agree. Maybe that is why Berdy was playing with such a sense of urgency. He is not young anymore and with Dimi, Nish, and Cilic all younger than him and all making a move last year if he wants to do something he has to do it now and most likely in one of these two hardcourt slams of this season.

Also think like others that Djokovic will be too much for him in a final. Has to hope that Stan or Raonic take him out. Prior to his win versus Nadal Berdych was 18-3 against Nadal and is an even worse 17-2 versus Djokovic. It would be quite a feat for him to win two 5 setters in a week against players that he is a combined 5-35 against. I still think that is beyond Berdych although he is now 6-35 and counting against those players.

it will be interesting to see how the Murray vs Berdych, I am very surprised by the 6-4 head to head in Berdych favour, 1-1 in grand slams. Hard to understand why Tomas is more comfortable against Murray but finds Djokovic a nitemare.

I would put it 60:40 in Murrays favour for this one but if Berdych plays near his top level, i could see him taking the match slightly out of Murrays hands. I remember Federer once saying that about Berdych in a press conference when he lost to him at Wimbledon or US open, he felt the racket was often taken out of his hands from Berdych's power off his grounds strokes. You would think Murray is one of those players that could neatralise the power as he does against other heavy hitters but he must not get the same read against him.

I would say Murray will be nervous about this one, just as Djokovic wil fear Wawrinka if he comes through against Raonic. Djokovic is 15-3 against Wawrinka but in recent times their matches have been epic battles. Could be two great matches, hard to call a clear winner in either match

Good post slasher, I think Novak's superior ability to go up the line often neutralizes Berdy. When you go up the line more against a big guy like berdych you instantly put him on the defensive and pull him to the corners. He can't just stand in the V and hit cross court shots against Djokovic. Murray gets caught going cross court exchanges with Berdy's forehand to forehand and that plays into Tomas' strength. I think Murray needs to get tomas moving and pulled wide to neutralize his power. That means going up the line more often off both wings, which is what Novak does to him.

With you on that Socal. Think Murray cannot afford to play passive and continually try to out rally Berdych. If he does that he will lose. It lets Berdych to get into a rhythm and hit huge shots which then allow him to dominate without having to move around a lot.