PGA Tour: The Desert Has Turned to Sea: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Sure enough, the Tour travels 350 miles West to San Diego, leaving all that Waste Management behind and running into a bunch of Farmers.
From breathless anticipation at Tiger's latest reincarnation to mortal dread at what he'll come up with in Southern California.
The weather should be spectacular, the only slight fly in the ointment being the seemingly ever-present risk of "marine layer", known elsewhere in the world as fog.

2).These next three weeks on the California coast offer terrific "host" courses, Torrey Pines South, Pebble Beach next week and finally Riviera; pretty much as strong a three week stretch as we see all year.
This week the field will play 18 holes apiece at Torrey Pines North and South, then 36 holes at the "South" - last year scoring was about 31/2 strokes easier at the "North", so don't despair if your favourite shoots a 74 at the "South", it's about par for the course.

3).Last week saw Tiger's comeback and Thursday will see the return of Dustin Johnson. It looks like his prediction that it would take him exactly six months to sort his life out was spot on, and expect him to be competitive straightaway. His last suspicious absence, in 2012, saw him earn a Top Twenty in his first tournament back, at Memorial, and win in Memphis the following week. Don't be surprised if it's the proverbial deja vu all over again, with a return to Pebble Beach next week where he's won twice and should've won McDowell's US Open.

4).And Brooks Koepka will be playing again, from his lofty world ranking of #19 and sure to go higher very quickly. There were stumbles and bumbles from his closest competitors in Phoenix but he kept hanging about until he drained that 50-foot snake and made solid pars the rest of the way. We'll just have to wait and see whether he'll continue to play in Europe, but I'd bet he'll first target a Presidents Cup berth.

5).Snedeker had a T10 finish in Phoenix, his third of the young season after such a disappointing year in 2014. Two or three of the more bizarre injuries have hampered him including knee damage falling off a Segway, plus various apparently congenital rib ailments. And his putter cooled down. That seems to be working better now and he goes to Torrey Pines having won here three years ago and with four top tens in his seven other visits. Then it's on to Pebble where he won in 2013. Sneds is still not in The Masters and it would devastate him to miss out. Worth a small punt each way, don't you think?

6).Another player with a truly eccentric history is Lucas Glover, a wonderful "ball striker", yet arguably the worst putter on any Tour anywhere - currently 211th in putting in a stat where there are usually only about 185 players. But he also has enjoyed some success in San Diego and could make a rare appearance on the leaderboard if he can just get to the weekend.

7).What of Tiger? He had planned to attend Sunday's Super Bowl but high-tailed it back to Florida following Friday's fiasco. He was last spotted following Lindsey at Beaver Creek. No, seriously, it's a ski resort. In Colorado. You couldn't make it up. Bad place to get the yips though. He has an early Pro-Am time Wednesday so hopefully TWA gets him there on time. It's assumed he won't play Pebble or Riviera so he needs a strong effort here and/or Honda to earn a place in the Cadillac field.

8).Phil was equally disappointing last week - he's playing San Diego but taking two weeks off, then is committed for Honda. All we've seen from Phil this year is hot air and you'd think he needs a result almost as badly as Tiger.

9).The field for the "Farmers Insurance Open" is strong, but not as deep as last week. Casey, Davis, Donald, Donaldson, Knox, Laird, Poulter, Rose, plus Harrington and Lowry are all on hand. Luke Donald has done well here in the past with two runner-up finishes, but he's off to an awful start to his season. I'm most interested in Shane who's playing Pebble Beach as well.
Aussies Jason Day and Marc Leishman have runnered up here, and both are overdue a win.

10).Finally, before any knee-jerk action is taken further to the recent remarks of HSBC exec Morgan about the road forward for golf, he and we might want to cast an eye on how Tim Finchem manages his PGA Tour fiefdom before knee-jerking too many changes into the sport. His Tour is stronger than ever, sponsors are extending contracts longer than ever, and the rest of the golfing world would do well to learn some lessons from Timmy. PGA Tour "title sponsorship" is in place for most tournaments for years to come, probably over-subscribed.
On the Champions Tour, his flagship sponsor has just re-upped for TWENTY years.
That may not be HSBC's demographic, but surely it's not beyond the wit of international golf's leadership to apply some of Finchem's approach to other parts of the world.
It's a great game, don't screw it up.

Mac, you can go back all you like, but it's irrelevant, none of them were over TOC with zero wind. I'm just saying it's possible, I'm not saying it's probable.

My actual quote was that it wasn't outside the realms of possibility. Lets face it, of all courses, hitting 18/18 GIR, then TOC is the place to do it, plus a few par 4's are driveable while both par 5's are an easy hit in two.

Mac obviously missed you while you were on your trip (slick stat finding and posting in 8 mins btw Mac).

As "easy" (or not) as TOC is a fleet of 63.5's in a major is still a huge ask, especially considering no-one has done it yet in x (insert number) TOC Opens. I'd have it in the highly improbable section - but is a possibility however slim).

Unlike Lowry, who isn't slim.

Yes, roller, but there's never been a TOC when there was 4 days of no/light winds.
Someone could shoot a 60, 64, 68, 64.

You just need to look at the benign conditions at the Dunhill to see how low scoring can get at St.Andrews. Four days of easy conditions and the R&A could look like the idiots they are.

The course record is 62 isn't it? If TOC is so easy then why isn't it lower?

10 under is still pretty low, but I think you'd be surprised how many times a 62/63 has been made rather than 62 being a standout freak score. I'm surprised it isn't lower, there's a lot of birdie opportunities on the course, easy greens, short par 4's.
You also have to factor in that the Course Record only comes into play when it's playing to Open length, which is once every 5 years, and if the wind blows, it will be tough.

Super lets use the Dawkins scale of agnosticism to make my point.

Yes it is possible that -34 could win an open over the TOC. As are all scores from 72 and up.

Anyway, 1 on the scale is you are sure -34 will win an open, and 7 is you are sure -34 will never win an open.

On this scale I am a 6.9, and further if the scale was 72 winning to 72 not winning I would also be a 6.9.

Mac I really wish you would be so much of a pedant peddling twerp.
You are talking about previous opens in which the weather has not been consistently benign, you are not comparing events with the conditions which I am suggesting, therefore you cannot compare the events in terms of what is likely and what is not. Of course the previous conditions show a score of -34 is unlikely. When have I said it would be?

If the weather is flat calm for 4 days it would be unlike any other TOC open and thus your previous historical stats are a complete irrelevance, yet last year we had about 6 consistently flat calm days in the area, so there is the potential for it to happen.

You are not comparing like for like, so stop trying to look clever with your hastily googled Dakwins scale because all it makes you look like is the sad little pseudo intellect you pretend to be.

Super

At the 2011 US open it was calm, flat and soft and mcilroy still only managed a 268 (-16). The best ever is David Toms 265 in the 2001 PGA. What evidence is there that even on a calm week someone would score 254?

It is hard to fathom why you are arguing from the position you are.

Well Mac, have I ever suggested that someone could shoot a staggeringly low set of rounds at the US Open? NO I haven't, so stop bringing it up.

I'm talking about TOC on 4 calm days and NOTHING else. So stop being a tool.

I didn't make an argument, I simply said that if the weather was calm at TOC, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone shoot in the 50's and a collective total of -30ish.

I think Lowry could break 250 over 4 days at TOC.


And I'm not talking about his weight in pounds

The point about TOC is that it is very wide open & comparatively short (vs other Open venues) & is therefore very dependent on wind to protect the scoring.
All it'll take is a wet summer to turn TOC green & lush, and then four calm days during the Open - and the modern players will absolutely annihilate it.
And it will happen one day, seeing as the R&A (infuriatingly) insist on staging it there every five years, knocking frankly better Open venues further down the rota.
I remember Dunhill Cups in the late-80s where the scoring was very low (Strange 62, Norman 63, scores averaging about 68).

s_r,
I see Princess Anne is now an R&A Member - imagine you'll see her on horseback, jumping the Swilcan Burn.

By the by: Does Princess Anne's choice as a Member make the R&A more, or less, inclusive?


Hi Seve,
Greg Norman's 60th birthday today . . . . . . . all he needs is a trip to TOC to shoot his age.

Super

Here are the winning scores from all TOC opens.


Year Total
1895 322
1900 309
1905 318
1910 299
1921 296
1927 285
1933 292
1939 290
1946 290
1955 281
1957 279
1960 278
1964 279
1970 283
1978 281
1984 276
1990 270
1995 282
2000 269
2005 274
2010 272
Average 287


So we have probably covered most weather possibilities for the 4 rounds and yet never has the winning score been within 15 shots of what you claim is possible. It really is time for you to concede that 254 is not a possible winning score for the open at TOC.

It is perfectly possible Mac, whether it is probable is the issue.

You've probably birdied every hole on your home course, it's possible you could shoot -18. Is it probable?

Have you really nothing better to do than dig up old irrelevant stats, perhaps with all the spare time you've got as a toilet attendant you could dig up the meteorological data from each of those Opens too, see if any of them come close to what I'm talking about. Until then, get stuffed.

super_realist wrote:...only Cabrera is Lowry sized in terms of his repulsive gargantuousness...

I'd pay good money to see you say that to Cabrera's face ....

Super

Of course whether it is probable is the issue. And quite clearly the evidence suggests it isn't probable at all, and likely to be impossible.

I never suggested it was likely. I said for the millionth time that I wouldn't be surprised if someone shot something like -30.
What you are basically saying is that because someone tosses 50 heads, that the next can't be a tail. Or just because Man United haven't won 10-0 in their last 50 games they can't do it in their next one.

The previous events are irrelevant because they are separate incidents with different conditions, players, equipment, technology etc etc.

Steve Stricker shot -33 in a PGA event once over 72 holes, Els -31 so it can be done, why not in a major in the easiest course on the major circuit?

navyblueshorts wrote:

super_realist wrote:...only Cabrera is Lowry sized in terms of his repulsive gargantuousness...

I'd pay good money to see you say that to Cabrera's face ....

Why wouldn't I? Not like he could catch me is it?

Cabrera seems pretty laid back. If I said he was a fat bastard, he'd probably just go "yeah, fair enough, I am"

McLaren wrote:Super

Here are the winning scores from all TOC opens.


Year Total
1895 322
1900 309
1905 318
.
.
.
.
.

Average 287

Really what is the point of including scores from over a hundred years ago - then including them in your so-called point-proving average? I'd say any mid-ability club golfer could probably break 322 over 4 rounds these days .. even in medium conditions .. not the benign conditions super is talking about

I agree with super on this one .. no it's not "likely" .. not "probable" and not any other words you seem to be trying to put into his mouth .. but given 4 days of calm conditions, certainly 4 x 64 doesn't seem that much of a stretch .. throw in a couple of slices of luck and there ya go

Oh dear Mac. You cannot be serious!! Super is spot on with this one and quite frankly you know he is ( why else bring in stats from 100 years ago in a feeble attempt to defend TOCs dignity.

You think there are other courses on the rota that are easier?? Name them. I don't know what the statistically easiest course on the European Tour is but if it's TOC it wouldn't surprise me. I have heard it said that Kapalua is statistically the easiest course on the PGA tour. I've played both and...If my life depended on shooting one round at handicap or better and my options were TOC in a flat calm or Kapalua in a flat calm I know where I'd go to save myself...sadly it wouldn't be Hawaii.

Davie

If it helps the average from the 80's onward is 274, still a long way from the claim that it is possible the winning score for the open could be 254.

And I will say it again, it is not possible for the winning score to be 254.


Jas

Do you really want to support the claim that a winning score of 254 is possible for the open?

Ugh, Paul McGinley's clubs were stolen out his car 90 minutes after arrival in San Francisco.

Wonder if he was at an adult establishment?

True story,
I've had "stuff" stolen when travelling on the road in the US twice: once at LGA and once at the 1987 RC in Columbus. The first time I got everything back, the second time my car window was smashed in, but I got most things returned.
Hope McGinley's tea leaves realize that his stuff is no use to them and returns it quickly. (Probably after the passport and ID are sold.)

McLaren wrote:Davie

If it helps the average from the 80's onward is 274, still a long way from the claim that it is possible the winning score for the open could be 254.

And I will say it again, it is not possible for the winning score to be 254.


Jas

Do you really want to support the claim that a winning score of 254 is possible for the open?

Why not Mac, I've already said Stricker and Els have just about done it by shooting -33 and -31.

On TOC you can drive 9,10,12 and 18, or at least get close enough to 2 putt or chip from off the side. The two par 5's are easy to get up in 2, so that's 6 under alone if you can close them out with 2 putts. 8 is an easy par 3 when there is no wind , so there's another, that's 7 under, Birdie opportunities at virtually every other hole, real chances at 1,2,6,7,15 as there isn't a real risk or challenge on them, bar 17 perhaps, So out of the remaining 11 holes. You only need ONE more birdie to be shooting 64.

If it's warm, no wind and the player is on form. Why not?

Is it probable? Perhaps not because it's unlikely to be flat calm and warm for 4 days, but it's certainly possible given the conditions I'm suggesting. It's a hypothetical situation, so why are you acting as if I'm claiming it WILL be done.

Really Mac, you need to stop being the pantomime villain so often.

GPB wrote:Ugh, Paul McGinley's car was stolen outside a "club" 90 minutes after arrival in San Francisco.

I fixed it for you...

Given the lack of condemnation of super's (JAS and davie's) ridiculous assertion that 254 is a possible winning score for the open, can I assume 606 golf supports this and is no longer a credible source of golf discussion?

Are the rest of you really going to let the record contain this idiocy? For kwini, gpb and robo to contribute ahead of the curve golfing analysis and then the rest of you fumble like morons over such a simple issue shows no one is really listening to what some of the great posters on here have to say.

Saying 254 is possible as a winning open score is like saying 20-0 is a possible score in a world cup final.

This is a shameful moment for 606 golf.

Je suis 606

Mac, it's NOT a possible score for The Open or any other major , it's a hypothetically possible score for The Open at TOC only when a player is in form, super accurate, putting well and most crucially the weather is incredibly favourable. Those are the criteria, there is nothing that makes TOC more difficult because it's a major, greens are large and mostly flat, and providing you are in the right sector, not too difficult.


Seriously, you are like a creationist continuously and willfully failing to understand evolution and trying to twist what I've said to say something else. Quarterwit

kwinigolfer wrote:
Hope McGinley's tea leaves realize that his stuff is no use to them and returns it quickly. (Probably after the passport and ID are sold.)

Do you really think anybody is desperate enough to buy an Irish passport?

Super

Why didn't you just stop with "it's NOT a possible score for The Open or any other major"?

For a Dillihnty fan you seem pretty obsessed with absolute certainty. It is obviously impossible to prove most things as certainties, but in your example we know the odds of all the variables you list taking the necessary values to be astonishingly low. We are therefore maximally certain that 254 is not a possible score to win an open.

Possible versus probable.

Could it happen versus will it happen.

Head versus brick wall.

We seem to be getting a bit hung up on this 254 figure.  There's no doubt that a wet summer & four windless championship days would leave TOC utterly defenceless, and that in that scenario a winning score approaching -30 is far from inconcievable.  If Faldo could shoot -20 in 1990 with persimmon woods, a hot McIlroy or Watson could go extremely low over 72 holes with their power & modern equipment. Only because TOC's double fairways & flat greens make it more reliant on weather than any other links.
I don't think this is an unreasonable scenario to posit, or one that destroys 606's credibility.
(Sorry to be a very occasional contributor on here - I do read with interest, but don't usually have enough time to get involved in discussions. Not being stand-offish or anything)

Surely if Kim Jong Il showed up, 72 would be the winning score?

seve

It may seem like I am hung up on the 254 figure but that is what super, jas and davie maintain to be possible in the correct conditions.

If they weakened their premise to "In calm conditions the TOC is likely to produce a score of around -20" then there would be no issue. Most of the evidence would allow for a score in that region being possible over TOC.

But for some reason they will not accept that the ridiculously low 254 is not possible.

McLaren wrote:Super

Why didn't you just stop with "it's NOT a possible score for The Open or any other major"?

For a Dillihnty fan you seem pretty obsessed with absolute certainty.  It is obviously impossible to prove most things as certainties, but in your example we know the odds of all the variables you list taking the necessary values to be astonishingly low.  We are therefore maximally certain that 254 is not a possible score to win an open.

Mac, are you just stupid? I'm saying IF, i'm not, and never have made a claim on certainty.

My initial statement was, IF the conditions are correct, and the player is in form, I don't see why 254, on TOC would be all that surprising.

Everyone knows that the courses ONLY defence is the wind. If there's no wind, who knows what is possible over 4 rounds.

McLaren wrote:Given the lack of condemnation of super's (JAS and davie's) ridiculous assertion that 254 is a possible winning score for the open, can I assume 606 golf supports this and is no longer a credible source of golf discussion?

Are the rest of you really going to let the record contain this idiocy?  For kwini, gpb and robo to contribute ahead of the curve golfing analysis and then the rest of you fumble like morons over such a simple issue shows no one is really listening to what some of the great posters on here have to say.

Saying 254 is possible as a winning open score is like saying 20-0 is a possible score in a world cup final.

This is a shameful moment for 606 golf.

This is hilarious. Mac you are such a tool. You spend most of your time on here posting deliberately contrary views to provoke a reaction and wind people up, and then when someone posts something that attacks your beloved TOC you throw a hissy fit because it's not a mainstream view.

pedro wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:
Hope McGinley's tea leaves realize that his stuff is no use to them and returns it quickly. (Probably after the passport and ID are sold.)

Do you really think anybody is desperate enough to buy an Irish passport?

If someone was on a hijacked plane or some similar situation, I bet they would possibly feel a lot safer having an Irish passport to say having a US or British one.

I don't think anyone would consider an Oirish passport to be any safer than having a UK one.

Ah but it's possible they might feel safer if there's a wet summer and there's no wind. It's probable that they won't though...

My view on TOC low scoring... I can totally see where super is coming from (like Davie and JAS). I've not played TOC, but I have been to an Open there and seen Tiger turn it into a pitch and putt. It was also interesting to watch the pro's playing agressive shots on practice days that would bring the course to its knees.

My only caveat is that, if there were a couple of days of record low scores, the R&A would surely put all the pins in ridiculous positions to reduce birdies and protect the course.

I wonder what the value of a scottish passport is on the black market.

The same as it would be for whites?

again

I was told if you have nothing good to say, say nothing. Another maxim I've completely ignored in an annoying effort to be purile.

raycastleunited wrote:My view on TOC low scoring... I can totally see where super is coming from (like Davie and JAS). I've not played TOC, but I have been to an Open there and seen Tiger turn it into a pitch and putt. It was also interesting to watch the pro's playing agressive shots on practice days that would bring the course to its knees.

My only caveat is that, if there were a couple of days of record low scores, the R&A would surely put all the pins in ridiculous positions to reduce birdies and protect the course.

Trouble is Ray, there aren't a massive amount of tricky pin positions.
Bunkers are no longer an issue, the greens are pretty flat and so the wind is really the only defence, unless they make the rough heavy before hand. The place is considerably more bare now than in 2010. Virtually all gorse that was ewer in play has gone.
It's very much pitch and putt in good weather.

So lets deal with this like the god question, meaning the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. If you say god exists then you need to provide the evidence to support that proposition.

Super, you have made the proposition that a 254 is possible on the TOC in calm conditions. Would you be able to share with us the evidence you have to support that premise?

Saying something is possible isn't the same as making a claim you imbecile. I haven't made a claim quarterwit, and something is possible isn't a  statement of absoluteness. It's possible you aren't a virgin, but it's not something I have to prove, because it's not a claim.

Technically it's possible that a player can make birdie on every hole. I've birdied every hole on TOC, not all in one round obviously, but it's possible to do so.

Remember numbskull, that all I said is that "I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED"

That isn't making a claim thicko.



If McIlroy can shoot 62 one fine day as he did, why not follow it up with 3 successive 64's?

Exactly what is it about TOC and the right collection of conditions that would make 254 impossible? Before Nicklaus it was probably deemed "impossible" to win 18 majors.

Remember, if you can, that we're talking about a hypothetical situation, and I've already outlined repeatedly to your complete lack of acknowledgment the reasons and criteria by which I think it would be possible, yet you've done nothing but give scores from 100 years ago, set in completely different conditions, by different players with different technology, akin speculating to the result of the coin toss in lieu of the  50 previous coin tosses.

Surely if someone has shot 64 or 63 (which they have) then there is the proof that it is possible to do it 4 times in a row. Unlikely, but possible

Mac, no one has ever shot 4 rounds in the 60's at The Masters, do you think that's impossible?

desperado

The big bang has only happened once as far as we know.  Does that mean there is evidence that it will happen again?


Super

If you "wouldn't be surprised" if something happened that implies you assigned a greater probability of it happening than not happening.

So you are saying that not only is a 254 possible, but you think it more likely to happen than not.

If you wish to stick to saying you wouldn't be surprised to see a winning score of 254, but at the same time offer no evidence to support that statement then you will have to admit that your position is irrational.


Edit: when you address some of the points I have made in the last few posts I will answer your question about the masters. For now that would be a distraction from understanding what you mean by not surprised.

On your God theory basis, prove the big bang happened