Normal service has resumed...

robbo277 wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:England  1 1 2 1 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 2      33  2.2
Ireland   3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 4 1 2 3 3 5 1      38  2.5
France    2 5 6 3 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 4 6 4      44  2.9
Wales     4 4 5 6 4 1 5 5 1 4 4 4 1 1 3      52  3.5
Scotland 5 3 4 4 6 5 3 6 5 5 5 5 6 3 5      70  4.7
Italy       6 6 6 5 5 6 6 4 6 6 6 6 5 4 6      83  5.5

Taking an average of finishing places across the 15 years of the 6N, England are ranked the highest.  Ireland take second spot.

Maybe I should revise the title...... England still in first place in the Six Nations......hmmmm

Ah but you fail to bear in mind the effect of standard deviation. I knew you would.

(NB: you have also harshly awarded 6 points for France's 2002 Grand Slam effort - their "true" average is 2.6)
(NB2: I have made no further effort to verify the data, as all the numbers add up to the total they should [(1+2+3+4+5+6)*15], so they represent a valid dataset, if not a true one).

England have a standard deviation of 1.014, Ireland, 1.060. So not only are we better than Ireland in average terms (that's better on average, not better at being average), we are also more consistent. Therefore we win this year's and last year's Six Nations. A DHL courier man will be round between 6am tomorrow and 19:33 on 7 May 2016 to collect our trophy. Alternatively, you may have Mary Robinson march across the grass of the Lansdowne Road pitch to hand it to Robshaw before the game this year, for old time's sake.

We normally say it depends what France team turns up, and their inconsistency is borne out by their standard deviation of 1.594 in finishing position, but Wales have an even higher standard deviation of 1.685, showing they are more erratic than France. I would therefore appreciate if we could collectively make "It depends what Wales team turn up" the go-to Six Nations cliché, and leave off the slightly-more-predictable France.

Scotland have a low standard deviation of 1.047. Couple this with their average, and their standard range is between 3.6th and 5.7th. Seeing as they have never finished 1st or 2nd in the Six Nations, this appears to be a valid model (allowing for nematodes), therefore proving the credibility of every other statement in this post. I will point to this indisputable fact should anyone disagree with me. On anything. Ever.

Finally, we have Italy. The worst average. But the least deviating, with a standard deviation of 0.743. If you want a model of how to achieve consistent results, I suggest following the Italian model of "lose a lot".

Questions?