The Indian Wells Masters 1000 Thread

[temporary21]

First topic message reminder :

Figured that masters 1000 events deserve their own threads and as such here is your place for all things Indian Wells.

[Haddie-nuff]

HN in normal mood today, not good.

606v2 would be lost without your intellectual and insightful contribution..

[Jahu]

2 news words from you today, "intellectual and insightful".

Keep it up, like it when you are on the edge.

[Haddie-nuff]

2 news words from you today, "intellectual and insightful".

Keep it up, like it when you are on the edge.

Did you consult Wikipedia:whistle:

[Jahu]

No, I'm not that smart, i learn here only.

[CaledonianCraig]

I missed the tennis today due to work but Andy Murray seemed to win with minimum fuss today. Good to see him back in a Masters semi - it has been too long. Djokovic who got a bye through after Tonic withdrew from their match awaits in the semi.

[Silver]

Well done Andy.

Shame about Tomic, but judging by the interview he really shouldn't be going on court:

'"[It's the] lower back connecting to the hip area and the groin," the 22-year-old Australian said. "I have been playing a lot of matches on it, and it's just very painful now. It was a tough match for me yesterday. I think playing last night with Thanasi [Kokkinakis] under the medication that I was on, antibiotics, has made me feel like I have no energy today.

"The face is inflamed even more on the right side of my cheekbone," he said, regarding his tooth. "It's tough for me to actually even move and rotate my head at one stage, so I can't really be turning. I'm scared to run on the back, as well. Everything is not good for me. And I had to play Novak, so it's not something I want to go on court with."

[laverfan]

No, I'm not that smart, i learn here only.

But you are smart enough...

I know it, I have cut mice in elementary school Biology, so I'm half doctor.

[laverfan]

Shame about Tomic, but judging by the interview he really shouldn't be going on court

Feel sorry for Tomic, this week he was playing some nice stuff.

[Haddie-nuff]

Shame about Tomic, but judging by the interview he really shouldn't be going on court

Feel sorry for Tomic, this week he was playing some nice stuff.

A let off once again for Novak.. I think the lad could have given him a bit of a runaround !!!

[laverfan]

It would have been a good match to battle harden Djokovic a bit for Murray.

[summerblues]

Too bad about Tomic.  I was looking forward to that match.  Tomic is for once looking quite good.  He has been playing some proper tennis instead of his old junk-ball-a-thon.  He can also defend quite well and has been patient on defence.  There is something about him reminding me of Delpo on defence - looks almost lethargic yet reaches a lot of balls.

Far better than the old Tomic.  Maybe he will finally break through this year.

[summerblues]

I don't see Fed as particularly good at returning the big serves (definitely not the best). He has a phenomenal record against big servers because he is so ridiculously good on his own serve that they never ever break him. However, I would be surprised if he breaks them more often than Novak.

Federer's breaks against (in percent of return games):
Raonic: 15.3%
Isner: 23.1%
Karlovic: 13.3%
average: 16.0%

Nole's breaks against:
Raonic: 21.1%
Isner: 21.4%
Karlovic: 5.1%
average: 15.9%

Virtually identical records.

(data is missing DC and Olympics, as the ATP site does not have stats for those)

[It Must Be Love]

Djokovic is a better returner of serve than Federer, overall.

Against huge servers the difference between the two will not be so pronounced, as Federer and Djokovic both block back huge serves very well, and both players would fancy themselves in rallies against Karlovic/Isner/Raonic.
However against most normal servers Djokovic gets the ball back with greater pace and with more depth than Federer, which puts him in a better position at the start of the rally.

[socal1976]

Have to agree there is no comparing Djoko's return stats to Fed, good post IMBL. If you look at all the stats on returning it is clear that Djokovic has a pronounced advantage overall. And really has had for many years its not a new development. Fed is pretty good at getting back big serves while he doesn't do as much as Djokovic with the returns. Novak does more damage more consistently on the return than Federer. Especially, since Federer basically chips 90 percent of his backhand returns.

[socal1976]

Can't wait for the semis it could be a big 4 semi. Djoko v. Murray is a great matchup. I think Murray will be more hungry to avenge his latest losses. But he has lost a number of matches now in a row to Novak. He has to win the first set because if he loses it there is no way in a three set match Novak will let him up. Obviously, the first set is huge in any 3 set match but in this match tomorrow even more so because of the recent history.

[Jahu]

No, I'm not that smart, i learn here only.

But you are smart enough...

I know it, I have cut mice in elementary school Biology, so I'm half doctor.

LF, you NSA baby, 007 girl kiss

[Jahu]

Berdy will be tough today.

Raonic maybe a TB set to take from Nadal.

[HM Murdock]

I'm expecting Andy to beat Novak in their SF, for no other reason than Novak has won their last 5 matches and I think Andy is due a win!

I'm also not expecting a Fedal SF, I think one of them will lose their QF.

[Born Slippy]

These courts are much better suited for Novak though. Would be very surprised if Andy beat him here. Fedal SF with a win for Fed I think.

[Guest82]

These courts are much better suited for Novak though. Would be very surprised if Andy beat him here. Fedal SF with a win for Fed I think.

Sadly, I don't think Fed will ever beat Rafa again. I think he knows this too.

[HM Murdock]

These courts are much better suited for Novak though. Would be very surprised if Andy beat him here. Fedal SF with a win for Fed I think.

Perhaps, but I just think this is an occasion where Murray will be more ready and willing for a big fight than Djokovic. I think he will feel he needs to win whereas I don't think Novak will.

Not that I'm suggesting Novak will tank it, but if things get tight, I think Murray will fight harder to prevail.

[Guest]

Saw Andys match last night. Hard to believe he hit more FH winners than BH winners!! What a crazy world we live in.

[It Must Be Love]

I'm expecting Andy to beat Novak in their SF, for no other reason than Novak has won their last 5 matches and I think Andy is due a win!

People frequently used this 'even out' logic to make predictions on all sorts of events, personally I can't understand it.
Even if it was always due to chance, i.e. a coin, and you had 5 heads in a row, the next toss would still had 50% chance.
In tennis I would say the fact Djokovic has won the last 5 matches makes him even more favourite than if the last few matches had been shared equally.
Or maybe there is some truth to the logic, and I'm being unreasonable ? We'll see

[Haddie-nuff]

These courts are much better suited for Novak though. Would be very surprised if Andy beat him here. Fedal SF with a win for Fed I think.

Sadly, I don't think Fed will ever beat Rafa again.  I think he knows this too.

You are a lot more confident than I .. not so sure if they meet in the SF .. Fed is firing on all four cylinders at the moment and Im not convinced that Rafa is fully back to form, if he blips in this match, Fed will seize the opportunity. However I would be most happy to be proven wrong

[temporary21]

I'm expecting Andy to beat Novak in their SF, for no other reason than Novak has won their last 5 matches and I think Andy is due a win!

People frequently used this 'even out' logic to make predictions on all sorts of events, personally I can't understand it.
Even if it was always due to chance, i.e. a coin, and you had 5 heads in a row, the next toss would still had 50% chance.
In tennis I would say the fact Djokovic has won the last 5 matches makes him even more favourite than if the last few matches had been shared equally.
Or maybe there is some truth to the logic, and I'm being unreasonable ? We'll see

They call it "Gamblers fallacy". In tennis there's a bit more to it. You have to factor in the extra motivation on the guy with the losing streak to put an end to it and weigh it up against the confidence of the winner. Murray might win tomorrow, given novaks had a long wait between matches.

[HM Murdock]

In tennis I would say the fact Djokovic has won the last 5 matches makes him even more favourite than if the last few matches had been shared equally.
Or maybe there is some truth to the logic, and I'm being unreasonable ? We'll see

I don't see it as probability, I see it as psychological.

When two players are evenly matched but one is on the wrong end of a losing streak, I think the desire to end the streak becomes a factor in itself.

I felt a similar way in 2013, when Rafa had beaten Novak at RG, Canada and USO. Despite that, I felt really confident that Novak would beat Rafa in Beijing because the losing streak had made that match really important to Novak but I didn't think a 500 final would see a particularly inspired Rafa.

Similarly, I think Murray will be chomping at the bit to have another go at Novak but I expect Novak probably sees it as a tough SF draw where he would prefer an easier opponent.

[temporary21]

I'll beleive Fed will beat Rafa when he gets over his fear of him to actually fire on more than 2 cylinders against him. A couple of bad aporoacges and shanked bh's and he turns to jelly

[Haddie-nuff]

I'll beleive Fed will beat Rafa when he gets over his fear of him to actually fire on more than 2 cylinders against him. A couple of bad aporoacges and shanked bh's and he turns to jelly

My goodness LF ..we could market "G.O.A.T. JELLY" we would make a fortune ...especially using the RF monogram

[Guest82]

These courts are much better suited for Novak though. Would be very surprised if Andy beat him here. Fedal SF with a win for Fed I think.

Sadly, I don't think Fed will ever beat Rafa again.  I think he knows this too.

You are a lot more confident than I .. not so sure if they meet in the SF .. Fed is firing on all four cylinders at the moment and Im not convinced that Rafa is fully back to form, if he blips in this match, Fed will seize the opportunity.  However I would be most happy to be proven wrong

In a strange way, Rafa doesn't really need to play that well to beat Fed. He will revert to his usual plan, which doesn't often let him down.

I think Fed feels that he needs to hit the lines from the first point and as a result rushes and often ends up making errors.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Murray had the chance to beat Novak at the AO but he threw that away. IMO he's good enough to beat Novak, not forgetting the last four or five times Novak beat Murray were during last year when Murray was just back from his back surgery. Prior to that their H2H was 11-8 in favor of Novak, but there were some encounters In 2012 which were tight affairs - WTF2012, Shaghai 2012 where Murray even had MPs to win in 2 sets, and AO2012 SF in five sets, and Novak narrowly edged those three matches.

Murray seems determined to get a win over Novak this time, maybe he'll do just that. As for Fedal should they meet, it's 50/50, either can win the match IMO, it depends on how they play on the day; they did beat each other at IW, in 2012 and 2013.

[It Must Be Love]

In tennis I would say the fact Djokovic has won the last 5 matches makes him even more favourite than if the last few matches had been shared equally.
Or maybe there is some truth to the logic, and I'm being unreasonable ? We'll see

I don't see it as probability, I see it as psychological.

When two players are evenly matched but one is on the wrong end of a losing streak, I think the desire to end the streak becomes a factor in itself.

Ah I see, fair enough. I suppose it's a balance of that vs the confidence Djokovic has gained from the positive H2H in general (as well as winning last few matches).

[Belovedluckyboy]

I agree, that Fed has to take all the risks in order to have a chance to beat Rafa, whilst Rafa just stick to his tried and tested way to beat Fed. Even against Novak, Fed also feels the pressure, and has to rush through the points in order to take time away from Novak and pressurized him, and that works well on the quicker courts of Dubai, Shanghai and Cincy. Rafa seemed more able than Novak in dealing with Fed on the quick HCs

[Haddie-nuff]

I agree, that Fed has to take all the risks in order to have a chance to beat Rafa, whilst Rafa just stick to his tried and tested way to beat Fed.  Even against Novak, Fed also feels the pressure, and has to rush through the points in order to take time away from Novak and pressurized him, and that works well on the quicker courts of Dubai, Shanghai and Cincy.  Rafa seemed more able than Novak in dealing with Fed on the quick HCs

I agree with that for the most part, but you are speaking of an "on form" Rafa  however, Im not convinced he is.. and he is not looking as comfortable as he should be.   If I can sense that then Im pretty sure Fed can. I sincerely hope that Rafa is a problem to Fed even when he is not looking confident.  Any match between these two is always entertaining at any rate.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Rafa ripped Simon apart no reason he can't do the same for servenic, he hardly ever lost to a servebot has he?

I DEMAND another Fedal match and so do the public

[Silver]

There could well be a double upset today. Nadal's 5-0 H2H lead is compelling, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Raonic could make life difficult. Berdych should probably beat Federer on this court.

Djokovic is a better returner of serve than Federer, overall.

Against huge servers the difference between the two will not be so pronounced, as Federer and Djokovic both block back huge serves very well, and both players would fancy themselves in rallies against Karlovic/Isner/Raonic.
However against most normal servers Djokovic gets the ball back with greater pace and with more depth than Federer, which puts him in a better position at the start of the rally.

No kidding. Read back in this thread and others; this conclusion has been reached many times.

Against Isner and Karlovic, Federer has the edge. Everyone else - Novak. Of course he's a much better returner overall.

Shame about Tomic, but judging by the interview he really shouldn't be going on court

Feel sorry for Tomic, this week he was playing some nice stuff.

Same here. A good start to the year so far, I hope this doesn't derail him.

[temporary21]

I want a Fedal match but frankly the last time they both played well was the 09 Au final... 6 years ago, which was their last classic too.

[LuvSports!]

I thought FO;'11 was very good. WTF '10. Cincy '13. Bits of aus '12.

[temporary21]

Fo 11 was perhaps the closest to a classic since then, but I fear an anticlimax nowadays when they play.

[Jahu]

Andy will crush the fake medical Djoko tonight.

I can sense some scottish vendetta tonight for the AO bait Andy took from Djoko.

Comeon Andy, fix his medical records for good

Don't mind Fed losing from Nadal, just don't want Berdy to beat Fed.

[LuvSports!]

Yes deffo agree on the anticlimax but in those matches I listed both players played well in response to your 09 comment.

[HM Murdock]

RG11 wasn't a bad Fedal match but once that drop shot was missed and the first set score went from 5-2 to 5-7, the result was never in doubt.

[temporary21]

Yes deffo agree on the anticlimax but in those matches I listed both players played well in response to your 09 comment.

I think youre right, but they never played well at the same time in any of those, Fed dropped off after the 1st set in FO11, the WTF 10 Fed turned up in sets 1 and 3, and Nadal in set 2 and so on. Their matches are so patchy now, almost like theyre shackled by the weight of the occasion

[Guest82]

I think Cincy '13 was about as well as Fed can play against Rafa these days. And he still lost.

I guess mentally Fed kind of knows he will lose and Rafa kind of knows he will win when they play. I actually give Raonic more chance of beating Rafa than I do Fed.

I think Federer matches up better against Djokovic, I don't think he is beaten mentally before he starts and I think he feels if he plays well he stands a chance. Obviously Djoko doesn't have the topspin into his backhand either.

[HM Murdock]

Yes deffo agree on the anticlimax but in those matches I listed both players played well in response to your 09 comment.

I think youre right, but they never played well at the same time in any of those, Fed dropped off after the 1st set in FO11, the WTF 10 Fed turned up in sets 1 and 3, and Nadal in set 2 and so on. Their matches are so patchy now, almost like theyre shackled by the weight of the occasion

I don't think it's a stylistic match up that allows both to play well at the same time. If Rafa is playing well, Federer's game is inevitably stifled.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Actually in a clay court slam between the two, the result is never in doubt, I do feel that AO2012 is of high quality from start to finish. Fed was consistently good from start to finish; Rafa started not so well but played better and better as the match progressed; Fed didn't go away during the match, it's Rafa who snatched the win away from Fed's hands. Fed was a set and a break up in the second set if I'm not wrong, but Rafa fought back to win the second set.

BO3 match, their Cincy 2013 was also a high quality competitive match from start to finish, a very good and well played match IMO. Fed wasn't playing badly at their AO2014 SF match either, it's Rafa who played at a higher level (higher than Fed, and also higher than Rafa's own 2012 level IMO). I don't think all their recent matches were/are lopsided - Madrid 2010/2011; WTF2010; FO2011; AO2012; Cincy2013 - they're not lopsided but were competitive.

[Jahu]

Come on Fed, deck him.

FH on fire for now.

[Jahu]

Fed breaks after letting off some BP in previous game.

Keep it boy, don't joke around or you go home.

[LuvSports!]

Or you will have an angry yazooooo to deal with !

[Jahu]

Fed takes the set.

LuvSports I'm a Yakult man hahaah

[temporary21]

Where is this being shown? I cant find it on Sky

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